2015年2月16日星期一

Vitrox Corp - Envisioning greater growth


Date: 27/01/2015

Source : MAYBANK
Stock : VITROX     Price Target : 3.55     |     Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 3.10     |     Upside/Downside :  +0.45 (14.52%)



  • Near-term catalysts: (i) net USD exporter and (ii) rising automation on aggressive semiconductor activities.
  • Initiate with BUY and MYR3.55 TP (+35%), pegged to 12.6x CY16 PER, backed by 3+% yield (35% DPR).
Promising industry dynamics
Rising labour costs and the increasing complexity of semiconductor packages are key drivers for more advanced test and inspection automation in search of optimum production yields. Meanwhile, high barriers to entry from extensive domain knowledge requirement, will cap competition and price erosion especially in the advanced inspection equipment segment (i.e 3D AOI and AXI). The inspection equipment’s addressable market is estimated to be ~USD1.4b-1.6b (~9% of total semiconductor equipment sales of USD38b in 2014), distributed among ~10-12 prominent players globally. In order to cater to semiconductor’s revenue growth in the next five years, Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) expects a 15% jump in equipment sales (to USD44b), opening windows of opportunities for ViTrox.
Gem in a haystack
ViTrox runs a lean business by employing a flexible manufacturing model and flat organisational structure. This has enabled it to adapt quickly to changing market demands and to maintain a 13- year unbroken streak of profitability since inception.
With its strong track record, ViTrox is poised to scale greater heights going forward, given stronger replacement demand and aggressive semiconductor activities. As a net USD exporter, ViTrox is also a beneficiary of the stronger USD/MYR. ViTrox is an underresearched Shariah-compliant growth stock (projected 2-year earnings CAGR of 17%) with strong balance sheet (net cash of MYR47m as at end-Sep 2014). Valuations are attractive at 9x CY16 vs peers’ average of 13x CY16. We initiate coverage with a BUY.
Source: Maybank Research - 27 Jan 2015

近5年新高水平 VITROX機構大漲28仙

27 Jan 2015 

 (吉隆坡27日訊)券商認為VITROX機構(VITROX,0097,主要板科技)近期將受惠于走強的美元,加上半導體領域前景正面,該股盤中一度高漲30仙上探至2.94令吉,近5年新高水平。
 VITROX機構今早揚6仙以2.70開報,過后漲勢如虹,早盤最高漲30仙衝上2.94令吉,近5年新高水平。
 該股休市暫掛2.87令吉,漲幅收窄至23仙,半日交易量125萬6400股。
 VITROX機構午盤穩步攀高,繼續穩守馬股10大上升榜前三甲;閉市時,該股漲28仙至2.92令吉,成交量178萬2100股。
料維持派息政策
 馬銀行投資銀行分析報告指出,進軍半導體市場不易,促使競爭不激烈;加上國際半導體設備與材料協會預計,半導體設備銷量料上漲15%至440億美元(約1587億令吉),這將有利于VITROX機構。
 VITROX機構的營運模式非常靈活,可快速适應市場需求波動。
 半導體需求如今走高,VITROX機構交易全是以美元計算,是股價催化劑。
 符合伊斯蘭教義的VITROX機構擁有強穩的資產負債表,截至去年11月底淨現金達5330萬令吉,相信可融資未來發展計劃。
 VITROX機構目前投產量已達80%,料2017年可達100%。
 該行估計,VITROX機構2015至2016財年盈利複成長率可達14% 。
 VITROX機構雖沒擬定派息政策,但過往每股派息是淨利35%,料2014至2016財年將維持。
VITROX Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... alysis-14-dec-2014/

My View:-

- Valuation: 
  – Absolute EY%: 
    – Trailing: 
      – FY13 (EPS: 0.099) – Fair value 1.83 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) 
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.175) – Fair value 3.21 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) 
    – Forward: 
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.196) – Fair value 3.6 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) 
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.224) – Fair value 4.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) 
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.28): 0.124 
    – At 2.28, the market assumed EPS 0.124. R4Q EPS already exceeded 0.124. 
  – Absolute PE: 
    – FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 2.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) 
    – R4Q (EPS: 0.175) – Fair value 3.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) 
  – VITROX is slightly undervalued. 
- I still sees a lot of growth in Vitrox – the catalysts from Agilent’s exit in 2016 and competitive products should help it compete to get individual orders.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/mar ... nouncements/1799725