2016年9月27日星期二

转贴:Stock With Momentum: Malaysia Steel Works (KL)



Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 10:51 AM 

By Asia Analytica / The Edge Financial Daily   | September 27, 2016 : 10:17 AM MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 27, 2016.
Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (-ve)Red Flag
SHARES in Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (fundamental: 0.15/3, valuation: 0.9/3), which were red-flagged by our proprietary algorithm yesterday — suggesting investors should exercise extra caution when trading in its shares — closed 11.73% or 10.5 sen higher yesterday at its one-year high of RM1.
It saw 31.93 million shares traded, compared with its 200-day average volume of 1.59 million.
Malaysia Steel’s momentum was in line with the rest of the steel players after the federal government issued provisional safeguard measures regarding rebar imports into Malaysia.
This will likely be another boost to the company after it registered a net profit of RM10.7 million in the second quarter ended June 30, 2016 (2QFY16), compared to a net loss of RM14.2 million in 2QFY15.
Year to date, its share price has risen 156.41%. At its current price, it has a market capitalisation of RM243.74 million

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/stock-momentum-malaysia-steel-works-kl

政府向进口钢筋征税 钢铁股项闻声上涨
By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com | September 26 2016 


(吉隆坡26日讯)中央政府对进口至大马的钢筋启动临时保障措施,在大马交易所上市的钢铁股项今日早盘纷纷闻声上涨。

稍早报道指出,政府计划向钢卷和钢筋各别征收13.9%和13.4%的进口税,并将于今年9月26日起的近六个月内作出最终决定。

截至11时19分,大马钢厂(Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd)领先群雄,大涨14.5仙或16.20%,报1.04令吉,成交量高达2398万5400股。

南达钢铁(Southern Steel Bhd)紧接在后,劲扬14仙或10.94%,报1.42令吉,一共有220万5200股易手。

美丽华工业(Melewar Industrial Group Bhd)涨4.5仙或7.76%,至62.5仙,成交量达1657万9300股。

锦记钢铁(Kinsteel Bhd)飙升2仙或36.36%,至7.5仙,而达业集团(Tatt Giap Group Bhd)和柏华嘉控股(Perwaja Holdings Bhd)则各别扬升1.5仙和1仙。

随着政府上周对进口至大马的钢卷和钢筋启动临时保障措施,各别征税13.9%和13.4%,肯纳格投资银行研究随即将安裕资源(Ann Joo Resources Bhd)上修至“超越大市”的评级,目标价也从原本的1.69令吉,调高至2.24令吉。

与此同时,安裕资源攀升8仙或3.85%,报2.16令吉,一共有233万1900股易手。

肯纳格投行研究在今日的研究报告中指出,此征税对这项保障措施来说是正面的举措,因这将推高安裕资源的钢筋平均售价(ASP)。

http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/VPK17



2016年9月25日星期日

转贴:MASTEEL, STEELING YOUR WAY TO 100% PROFIT


Author: 100percentprofits   |   Publish date: Sat, 24 Sep 2016, 10:58 PM 

In the last 2 weeks, the steel industry stocks has been climbing very aggressively. There has been plenty of articles on specific steel players. However, what I’ve noticed is that a majority of the articles tend to focus on the steel sheet players.

Therefore, for the purpose of this article, I want to both educate and learn from the i3 community regarding the steel industry. Therefore, if I do make any mistakes in this article, please feel free to correct me because I am merely a novice investor who is trying to learn. This article will give a wide angle on the steel industry and then focus on rebar players, specifically MASteel which had rallied by 9% last Friday to a closing price of RM0.895.

First off, please prepare your brains if you’re not familiar with the steel industry because I’m giving you a lot of information. 

Please digest this table properly because this will set the overall context of steel players in the industry. First of all, there are the upstream and downstream players. I am going to ignore the true upstream of iron ore mining and coke manufacturing because it is not prominent in Malaysia.

Therefore, broadly, the upstream players are divided into the sheets and the long steels. Sheets are basically flat steel as per the picture below which are usually sold in coil form. There are two kinds of sheets the HRC (hot roll coil) and the CRC (cold roll coil). It’s not that the HRC is hot when you touch it, but rather it was produced under high temperature. CRC uses HRC as a raw material to make the steel coils stronger/ thinner under non heated environment.

(http://blog.steelfromchina.com/differences-between-hot-rolled-coil-and-cold-rolled-coil/#sthash.CAexc4YZ.dpbs)

Recently, with the closure of Megasteel, the CRC steel players have been rallying because previously Megasteel was charging a higher price for HRC used to manufacture CRC compared to HRC imported from China. Quick note, while many sources state that Megasteel is a monopoly on production, there are other players such as SSteel & Eastern Steel (JV of Hiap Teck) which have license for production but are not producing HRC (from my research).

I am not going to write anymore about CRC because there are many articles on it already. We all know that these players have a good potential to realize higher profits in the future.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/104931.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/undervalue/103112.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/103812.jsp

Skipping ahead to the downstream players, these are basically users of HRC, CRC, wire rods and rebars which cut or mold the steel to manufacture end products. For example, Prestar is in the business of slitting HRC and CRC into more narrow sheets, manufacturing hollow tubes, highway rails and steel racks. Basically the end or close to end product.   

Touching slightly on whether Megasteel closing has an impact on downstream producers such as Prestar or recently popular ChooBee is an interesting question.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/104546.jsp
I was reading the article above which mentioned that ChooBee uses scrap based HRC to manufacture their products. Therefore with Megasteel out of the picture, ChooBee should benefit from lower raw material prices (imported HRC from China). I do not know the extent of application of HRC by ChooBee of Prestar, however if there are some applications of HRC, then they will benefit from lower raw material prices. 

Finally, let’s talk about wire rods and rebars. These are known as the long steel products. Wire rods are typically used to manufacture bolts, nuts, nails, screws, wire ropes, bearing steel and vehicle tires.  Rebars are used mainly in construction for structural integrity.
Source: http://www.steel-n.com/esales/general/us/catalog/wire_rod/use.html

The main players in this segment are MASteel, AnnJoo & SSteel. These players exclusively do not benefit from Megasteel’s closure because they do not use steel sheet products in their manufacturing.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/104931.jsp

This author is quite on point with his argument on the rebar and wire rod players. However, he has pointed out a few good arguments which I wish to borrow:
  1. Steel prices have been recovering since the beginning of 2016 and have gone up more than 40%

     
  2. In June 2016 the Edge reported that rebar players have lodged a complaint to MITI on steel dumping by China and are currently awaiting result pending investigation. If successful, they will be protected by the government imposing a safeguard tax on imported steel bars.
Point number 1 is very important, however it applies not just to rebar players but to all steel players. 

Source: http://steelbenchmarker.com/files/history.pdf
From 2011 to early 2016, Chinese rebar has been dropping from the high of USD660/MT to the low of 250/MT (we are using China because they produce more steel than the rest of the world combined). That is a whopping 62% drop. In the meantime, all steel players have been suffering with high inventory write downs and continuous lower average selling price. It’s no surprise that many steel players were in the red in 2015. However, in 2016, there is a change in wind where steel prices have staged a rebound. The current steel price of USD312/MT is not even half of the peak in 2011.

This is why although Megasteel closure does not affect rebar players, they have also rallied with strong Q earnings.
Going back to point #2, this is something that happened very recently – the MITI application for import duties for rebar & wire rods from Chinese dumping. Now read carefully. Just on Friday, at 3PM, our Malaysian government applied a safeguard duty rate of 13.42% for rebars and 13.9% for wire rods and deformed bar in coils.

https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/malaysia-imposes-preliminary-safeguard-duty-on-rebar-imports-950462.htm
https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/malaysia-sets-preliminary-safeguard-duty-on-imports-of-wire-rod-950463.htm
Now we know why MAsteel, SSteel & Annjoo were flying on Friday afternoon.

So the next logical question is whether this import duty will have a financial impact on the rebar & wire rod players and the answer is a resounding YES. Imagine, if our local players had to previously compete with the Chinese exporters, and had to lower their prices to match them, now they can afford to increase their prices by a 13.42%. Or at least 10% - while being able to give a discount.

While 10% may not seem like a whole lot, we must remember that the steel players are all suffering from terribly low or sometimes even negative margins. 

Now we should compare the 3 main steel rebar players:
  1. First of all notice that MASteel is the most specialized that they only produce steel bars and billets unlike AnnJoo & SSteel which produces other downstream end products as well. This means that MASteel will benefit the most from the protection duty.

     
  2. MASteel has the best DE ratio among the 3 despite the fact that they recently completed their expansion adding another 150,000MT production from previously 450,000MT or a 33% increase.

     
  3. MAsteel has the deepest discount to NTA of 65% even comparing to all other steel players

     
  4. MAsteel has the lowest market cap

     
  5. For adjusted EPS, I used the latest Q less any inventory write off or asset impairment given the assumption that steel prices are stabilizing/ recovering. Therefore based on the latest Q, using a lazy simplistic method of multiplying the latest Q by 4, MASteel has the highest PE of 4.5 compared to 2.7 for the other two.

    This is mainly because MASteel has the lowest net profit margin currently. I believe that this is due to the excessive dumping of steel from China, and therefore since they are specialized in steel rods and billets, they are the most impacted compared to SSteel and AnnJoo. However in the coming quarters, with the safeguard tax, MASteel’s margin will improve significantly.


     
  6. This brings us to the Net profit %. In addition to my previous explanation of low profits, MASteel also recently expanded their capacity, which usually impacts profitability before reaching a normalized utilization. This part is important because assuming that the safeguard tax increases each player’s NP by 10% (not 13.42%),MASteel will stand to increase profit by 250% while AnnJoo and SSteel will increase 64% and 121% respectively. There is a saying – when an industry turns around, the players with the worst profit margins will benefit the most because the improvement in margin is exponential.

     
  7. Finally, of the 3, MASteel has the highest inventory/share. While usually high inventory is a bad thing because it denotes poor use of capital, when steel prices are rising, this is a good thing because it has a higher stockpile of cheap inventory that will be sold at a higher price. In MASteel’s 2015 Annual Report, roughly 90% of inventory are raw material – which means that the high inventory is not due to its inability to sell to customers but due to MASteel stocking up in 2015 when raw materials were at its cheapest (MASteel doubled its inventory from 2014 to 2015)

So what’s the valuation? Really, it depends on the market. If you want to use PE, you need forward earnings. Historical earnings aren’t going to help you. However, as a start, I think it is safe to assume that MASteel’s profit will at least double from the import duties and the sustained steel prices.
Therefore, a full year EPS of 28.8 (4.4c * 4Q * 2) shouldn’t be too surprising. Assigning aPE of 5 would yield a TP of RM1.76, close to double the current price. 

Finally, if you haven’t seen a cup and handle, this is a perfect one. In technical trading, what usually follows is "The Sky is the Limit."

Conclusion
While I think that all steel players are poised to benefit from the recent increase in steel prices, we have to be strategic in picking the counter which we want our money to grow in.
Therefore, in my opinion, due to the recent safeguard duty imposed by the government, rebar players have the highest potential – similar to how sheet players benefited the most from the closure of Megasteel.
I understand that many retail investors are afraid of heights, looking at how high steel players have come from 1 month ago, however I must encourage you that there is still a lot of room. This is because:
  1. Steel players at their low were clearly trading as if they were going bankrupt. MASteel was at a low of 40c with an NTA of RM2.2. People are only now starting to invest as if these steel companies can survive and generate profit.

     
  2. Newspapers & investment banks have not started to cover steel stocks extensively. Have you noticed that coverage usually starts very late? This weekend’s edge only started covering Mycron – one of the CRC players.
     
  3. The cash flow and profitability haven’t even started to show – the potential is extremely big. Don’t think about where the stock is today. Think about where it will be tomorrow (or next year)
     
Finally, these are my own thoughts. I may be well wrong on many points of argument, therefore I would implore that you kindly comment below where I have gone wrong and refrain from attacking me.
Thank you. 

Appendix
I realized that the steelorbit webiste makes it difficult to view the import duty news, therefore I am copying it into the appendix.
Please excuse the small words. You may right click and open in a new tab for better clarity. 



----100% 净利:感恩你专业与诚实的分享,谢谢了。

2016年9月23日星期五

马钢厂 5098 masteel buy in:

--公司Q2的EPS=4.4SEN,累计两季EPS=6.5SEN,
 --masteel 2016 年估计eps=15 sen,pe=10倍,股价=rm1.50
--如 2016年eps=15sen ,现有价位rm 0.895 只是在本益比(pe)6倍交易,非常低估.
--于30-6-2016公司CASH=1758万, 贷款=3.6亿, NTA=RM2.24
--库存为3.72亿 /2.44亿股数=RM1.52(个人简单计算).
--大马钢厂建议私下配售新普通股的第一批股票,定价为每股86仙。:2012-10-31
--100%PROFIT 网友算:4%净利,(个人简单计算): 年营业约10亿*4%=4千万 ,
  40M/244M 股数=RM0.163 ,PE=10 ,股价=RM1.63

--受益于马来西亚政府施加13.42%螺纹钢一种保障税率和线材13.9%,螺纹钢的线圈。








1)

钢价趋强.业绩有看头.马钢厂后市看起

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Sun, 4 Sep 2016, 09:11 PM 

2016-09-04 19:18
随过去两年领涨的出口股陆续在今年落马,马股投资主题悄悄产生变化;就在大家都忙着找寻新主题时,一个几近被遗忘的领域强势崛起了。
随过去两年领涨的出口股陆续在今年落马,马股投资主题悄悄产生变化;就在大家都忙着找寻新主题时,一个几近被遗忘的领域强势崛起了。
这个领域,就是近期利好频传的钢铁业。
这个原本不太受看好的领域,因钢价突如其来的强势反弹,加上反倾销税落实、领域产能消退、建筑业火热等利好,业绩和股价都取得重大突破,大冷杀出,成为今年表现最好的股类。
顺着这股钢铁热流,我们发现了一家业绩有看头、估值却异常低的钢铁公司——马来西亚钢厂(MASTEEL,5098,主板工业产品组)。
马来西亚钢厂(下称马钢厂)是家老字号钢铁供应商,营运历史已有46年之久,旗下目前有3家工厂,包括两家轧钢厂和一家熔炼厂,地点分别坐落在巴生武吉拉惹和八打灵再也,地理上的优势让该公司多年来始终在巴生河流域地区钢铁市场中占有重要地位。
马钢厂在巴生武吉拉惹的工厂,包括一家年产能70万公吨的熔炼厂,和耗资1亿2000万令吉、去年11月启用的崭新轧钢厂,年产能20万公吨,坐落在八打灵的则是另一家产能45万公吨的轧钢厂。
年报资料显示,巴生河流域就只有两家钢铁公司的工厂靠近主要基建计划的活动地区,马钢厂正是其中一家。
熔炼厂主要活动是生产铁坯(Steel Billet);铁坯是半成品,得经过轧钢厂加工才能成为最后成品。轧钢厂则是负责增值和加工,把半成品打造成售价更高的成品。
新厂投产
搭上钢价涨势
由此可见,马钢厂选择在巴生熔炼厂旁增设新轧钢厂,原理非常浅白,一来是能直接增强运作和成本效率(铁坯更容易被送往轧钢厂增值),二来则可把钢条(Steel Bar)产能(65万公吨)提升至与铁坯产能(70万公吨)相符的水平,藉此强化生产力和竞争力。
管理层早前估计,新厂每年最多可带来2亿令吉营业额。
最重要的是,巴生轧钢厂的投产时机可谓几近完美,因大马钢价去年一度暴跌至史无前例的每公吨1300至1400令吉低点,这突如其来的变化使各钢铁公司纷纷陷入亏损,马钢厂也不例外,惟在新厂投产不到两个月,钢价就炫丽反弹,今年4月一度飙涨至2400令吉,这让马钢厂得以准确搭上钢价涨势,业绩展望明显转强。
实际上,随第二季财报季在上周结束,钢价飙高对钢铁股的正面影响已获应证,如马钢厂就在钢价走高和生产力提升扶持下,如愿在第二季转盈,报净利1067万7000令吉,每股盈利4.41仙,表现异常出色。
过去12年,马钢厂只曾在2009年和2015年蒙亏,其余年份都取得可观盈利;除去年外,过去10年也都有派息,派息率介于6至13%不等。
会否恢复派息备受关注
更何况,第三季至今两个月已过,可在中国去产能、政府征反倾销税和需求强稳等利好撑腰下,本地钢价仍徘徊在趋强水平,这暗示马钢厂下半年业绩依然令人期待,会否恢复派息备受投资者关注。
多重潜在利好撑腰
在马股,涉足钢铁制造的公司有十几家,《股海捞月》之所以挑中马钢厂,原因是察觉该公司有多重潜在利好撑腰。
或获12亿铁路系统计划
除上文提到的工厂位置明显占优、新厂投产强化业绩展望和营运效率外,马钢厂还可能与大马统一(KUB,6874,主板贸服组)联手赢得价值不下12亿令吉的柔佛依斯干达通新加坡城际铁路系统计划。
依马钢厂过去3次在交易所发布的更新文告来看,有关提案已近总结阶段,料不会再拖太久,只待当局下最后决定。
此外,继今年5月宣布向特定进口冷轧钢征收3.06%至23.78%反倾销税后,大马贸工部(MITI)目前也正调查进口钢条和钢丝的倾销指控,以判断是否向这两类进口钢品征收反倾销税;若终裁是钢条和钢丝也遭税,本地钢铁股必定受惠,包括马钢厂。
马钢厂在前周业绩报告中估计,贸工部会在第四季初公布初裁结果。
《股海组合》回酬持稳2.48%
小资股8月整体先盛后衰,但在强稳业绩加持下,5家公司表现相对稳定,使下半年组合回酬持稳于2.48%。
在刚过去的第二季财报季,NOTION集团(NOTION,0083,主板科技组)因一次性税务拨备而不幸蒙亏;然而,让我们当初青睐NOTION的亮点——营运盈利(EBITDA)和现金流强劲,仍完好如初。
剩余4家公司业绩也一如预期般取得增长;整体而言,我们对5家公司的业绩相当满意。
估值偏低
稽查争议或为导因
在展望看俏之际,马钢厂股票估值却异常低,只以账面值的0.29倍交易,是估值最低的纯钢铁股,远逊其他同侪介于0.37倍至1倍不等的估值。
平心而论,若是业绩展望逊色,马钢厂的低估值并不足为奇,怪就怪在马钢厂不但估值低,业绩对比其他钢铁股也算出色。这样的公司,估值竟比不上一些业绩平平的小型钢铁股,肯定叫许多人抓破头也想不通(业务规模而言,马钢厂算是中型钢铁公司)。
对此,《股海捞月》相信马钢厂估值之所以偏低,导因是去年中发生的稽查争议。
资料显示,马钢厂是在去年4月杪宣布无法在限期内呈交2014年经稽查财报给大马交易所,造成股票被迫在同年5月初起暂停交易,直到同年7月提呈财报后才解冻。
马钢厂当时无法及时公布财报,原因在特定账项上与稽查师意见分歧,拖慢稽查进度,有关争议最终使稽查师给予马钢厂2014年财报“保留意见”,还申诉无法确认一笔价值高达3亿3454万令吉的应收账能否收回。
稽查师的意见对投资信心伤害很大,造成马钢厂股价一度因此腰斩,原本稳企80仙以上的股价一度暴跌至40仙以下,创历史新低。
无论如何,仔细评估前后始末后,《股海捞月》认为有关事件对马钢厂股价的冲击显然有些超过,毕竟其业务运作和基本面丝毫未受损害,今年的稽查工作也已恢复正常。
更重要的是,当时被稽查师质疑的应收账,其实在去年中便已全额收复,负责特别稽查的UHY FLVS公司在报告中证实这点。
国际钢价今年绝地反攻,使各钢铁股身价水涨船高,马钢厂也收复一些失地;不过,以去年4月(稽查争议发生前)至今来看,马钢厂股价至今却仍下跌约18%,远逊其他业绩报捷同侪在同期书写的18至76%涨幅。
股价未回到稽查争议前水平
据《股海捞月》统计,在稽查争议发生前,马钢厂的4年平均交易估值实为0.41倍账面值,比目前0.29倍高出40%以上,这说明该公司完全还没回到稽查争议前水平,取回自己理应获得的估值。
总的来说,由于需求无忧,马钢厂未来业绩和股价表现很大程度将取决于钢价走势;若钢价稳定在高位,使钢铁股继续风骚,利好加身的马钢厂相信不会被忽略。
声明:股海捞月和股海组合提供的资料只供参考,志在助投资者认识一些不获证券行重视的小型股,和追踪相关股后续表现,不是买卖建议,任何投资决定还请先征询专业股票经纪的意见,盈亏自负。