2018年8月16日星期四

4235 lionind 金獅持续上升.

a)

b)投资得道!
😍👍4235强势也!
如破竹,现在1.24为支持价,1.29为阻力。中期阻力为1.40 ,1.50,1.67
 之后无限想像前路。
前方没有阻力有望走至月底公布业积。个人看法而已。
术分析正面:
RSI(14)为70,9
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html
螺纹鋼4375RMB/噸,大马長鋼产品在进囗征18%保护稅下,外面进口货早己无利可图,
经之前的回调,现買入長,鋼股是良机。
个人看法,官佬的作风是,公司净利除非二个季度下滑他才会出货,只要净利维持上升他会持有並買入,lionind在收下扁鋼业务后未来净利大可说是向上的,因此可持有先。
lionind 4235 :
别担心自乱陣脚,这股才要开始又一波的势头,鋼价2.3年是稳定的,支持面好。2元仍然进行中。 
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html 
现货4367rmb
http://gu.sina.cn/ft/hq/nf.php?symbol=RB0 
期货也回升了 4347rmb
c)浅谈4235 金狮工业 lionind Q3 2017 的业积:
A)公司于31-3-2017 的库存有4.69亿零吉,与31-12-2016 上一季增加了8千万.
應收款为4.61亿,与31-12-2016 上一季增加了2千万.
長短期借贷为2.4亿,与31-12-2016 上一季減少了1千7万.
现金有3.3亿,净现金8925万.
累计净利有4.37亿,与31-12-2016 上一季增加了4千9百万,
nta=rm2.51,与31-12-2016 上一季增加了9仙,
公司Q3 2017的赚副为6.45%,31-12-2016 上一季Q2 的赚副为8.6%,
B)lionind Q3 2017 赚4876万,EPS=7.16 SEN,三个季度累计EPS=14.64SEN,
估计全年EPS=20 SEN 可达标.PE=10,股价=RM2
投资路上选择对就简单了,坐享其成。 我相信是的,金狮工业仍然在物有所值内交易,
如2017财年eps=20sen,
现lionind rm1.20只在6倍的本益比(pe)交易,明显被低估了.
C)几年前金狮机构以每股1.4元賣回予钟老,心中有个底价了吧,今时钢价高漲已达净收区间,因此绝对高过这个价.
D)趁低吸购。这行业的股沒这么快走完,算到中途而己。
前方更美的景色还没抵达,耐心確保更好的丰收.
E)钢材保护税3年,直到2020年4月13日。第一年为13.42%,第二年降低至12.27%,
第三年则减少至11.1%
只供参考,进出自负.
d)Posted by Ramada > Aug 20, 2018 07:44 AM | Report Abuse  

Automotive industry needs a lot of steel, especially cold rolled coil. Megasteel can produce 3.2 million tonnes HRC and 700,000 tonnes CRC a year.  

In fact, Megasteel can produce up to 1.45 million tonnes of CRC per year if it runs at full capacity vs CSC Steel’s 620,000 tonnes and Mycron’s 260,000 tonnes.  
 Market capital of Lionind is about RM850 million. They will acquire Megasteel asset for RM537 million. Currently Lionind’s net tangible assets as high as RM2.69, after it added Megasteel asset to the group, its net tangible assets should be increased sufficiently. I guess mininum RM3.50.

Lionind current share price is RM1.20. You think it’s overvalued or undervalued, all is up to you.


e)与KYY共午吧,股市是讲资金进出决定股价上下的地方!已公开持有了接下来看官佬表现了!
个人分享,買卖自负.

注:以下转自KYY前辈的原贴:谢谢他的功课!
为何狮子产业股价持续走高? Koon Yew Yin 作者:Koon Yew Yin发布日期:星期五,2018年8月17日,09:03 AM   我在土木工程课程中学习的课程之一是冶金学,即制造金属的研究,包括铁,钢,铜和其他金属。 中国已经生产了世界钢铁总产量的50%以上,中国是最大的钢铁出口国。 中国从澳大利亚购买铁矿石,从印尼购买煤炭。通过燃烧煤可以将铁矿石变成铁。通过添加碳,铁可以变成钢。在铁中加入碳,使钢更坚固,更坚韧,达到一定程度。然后它会变得更强,但不那么坚韧,就像铸铁一样坚硬而脆。这意味着如果弯曲它会破裂。碳通过扭曲其晶格来强化铁。 你可以通过回火使钢更坚固。如果你将一块钢加热并将其深入水中,它就会变得更坚固。如果你将一块钢加热并将其深入油中,它会变得更坚固,更坚韧。 在燃烧煤的过程中,大量产生大量二氧化碳和其他杂质。结果,北京,上海和其他城市的天空总是黑暗,空气总是被污染。 由于几乎所有的钢铁厂都是国有的,政府已经终止了大部分钢铁厂。 目前,中国使用废铁和进口铁长棍面包制造自用钢。中国不再出口钢铁。 马来西亚过去从中国进口钢材并保护当地钢铁制造商,政府征收进口关税。 这就是为什么Lion Industry在过去几个季度一直在增加利润的原因。其第一季度EPS 4.08仙,第二季度EPS 8.20仙和第三季结束2018年3月EPS 8.91仙。 3个季度的总EPS为21.19仙。假设其4小时Q与其第3个Q相同,则全年的总EPS将约为30仙。 基于1.25的最后交易股价,其市盈率约为4.应该被认为非常便宜,特别是它具有非常好的利润增长前景,这是遵循我的选择黄金法则。我预计它的第四个Q将比第三个Q好。 上图显示价格从63仙上涨至1.23瑞士法郎,上涨60仙,在不到2个月内上涨近100%。 我的很多朋友都问过我们是卖还是继续购买。 我的销售规则是,一旦我看到公司的利润减少,我就会开始出售。这就是如何最大化利润。 我的很多朋友也问我,如果他们早些时候卖掉,他们是否应该以更高的价格回购。当然,许多股东会出售太早而后悔。一些聪明的人敢于承认他们的错误并以更高的价格回购。鉴于其良好的利润增长,如果您已经售出,您应该回购。 我的很多朋友都问他们是否有更多的购买设施,他们是否冒风险购买更多。 这个问题对我来说有点棘手。这真的取决于你的风险偏好。你能负担得起一些钱吗?或者你是否愿意冒险赚取更少的钱,以防价格下跌而不是走高。 我有义务告诉您狮子产业是我的主要投资之一。我发布这是为了分享我的知识,我不鼓励读者购买或出售这个柜台。

f)Lion Industry: How to Recognise a Growth Stock Early? Koon Yew Yin

Author:   |    Publish date: 


Although the title of this article reflects my egotistic manner and people do not like egoistic people, but it is ego that drives me to think and harder to make so many achievements. I was a co-founder of the 3 of the larger construction and property companies in Malaysia namely Mudajaya, Gamuda and IJM Corporation Bhd.
I am nearly 86 years old and I like to spread my accumulated knowledge to people, mush like a priest preaching the gospel. My intention is honourable.
My track record:  
I am only a business man. As I am not an accountant, I can hardly understand a company’s balance sheet. I am also not a chartist. But then how could I buy so much of Latitude Tree, V S Industry and Lii Hen?

The above chart shows that Latitude went up from Rm 1.00 to Rm 8.00, an increase of 800 % within 2.5 years. Its 2015 annual report showed that I was the 4th largest shareholder holding 6.32 million shares.

The above chart shows VS Industry went up from 30 sen in June 2014 to Rm 1.70 in Dec 2016, an increase of 550 % within 18 months. Its 2015 annual report showed that I was the 2nd largest shareholder, holding 102 million shares.

The above chart shows that Lii Hen went up from 40 sen in mid 2013 to Rm 3.00 in Oct 2015, an increase of 750% within 2,5 years. Its 2015 annual report showed that I was the 2nd largest shareholder, holding 19.80 million shares.
My share selection golden rule:
As soon as I see any company with a good business reported 2 consecutive increasing quarterly profit and it is selling at P/E below 10, I will start to buy it. If it reports another quarter with increased profit, I will buy more aggressively.
For example, I started buying Lion Industry as soon as I saw 2 consecutive quarters with increased profit. That means I started buying when it was selling at about 70 sen per share.
Based on my buying method, I would be buying earlier than professional chartists who would only start to buy when the price passes its 70-day moving average, that is Rm 1.20 per share as shown by the price chart below, produced by the famous Mr Ooi Teik Bee.

With due respect, like all professional Mr Ooi’s method is very safe to make money.
When do I start to sell Lion Industry share?
Many day traders would sell as soon as they can make 30% profit. Assuming the bought it at 70 sen, they would start selling at about 90 sen. Statistics shows that day traders do not make much money because they sold too early and would not admit their mistake to buy back the share at higher prices. Most of them would like to boast to their friends that they have made 30% profit within 2 months of buying Lion Industry shares.
As long as Lion Industry continues to report increasing profit, I will not sell. In fact, I will buy more shares with margin loan.
I expect it will report increased profit before end of this month.
I will only start to sell when it starts to show reduced profit.

3)Steel mill spreads in China, US hit records in May



Global indicators of operating margins at steel mills remain buoyant as viewed in China, Asia and US markets, with steel product pricing outpacing iron ore, ferrous scrap and met coal costs.
S&P Global Platts news feature: Canada, EU, Mexico to be subject to US metals tariffs
Steel to raw materials spreads in China and the US continued to rise in May, after increases over the past three months. New record highs were seen, as spreads surpassed a peak last year in indicative margins.
With new records set monthly, and driven by steel prices rather than any big changes in steel raw materials costs, indicative margins may be approaching their limit.
A survey by S&P Global Platts showed Chinese steel market sentiment weakened further in June. In China, market participants are reported to be extremely uncertain about steel price direction.
Higher steel prices and margins may support raw materials prices, adding to margins for miners, scrap recyclers, and steel producers with higher costs for end-users in the auto, energy and infrastructure sectors.
High quality iron ore premiums and premium coking coal prices have ticked up, on a drive for higher steel mill utilization and efficiency, aiding pollution cuts.
Steel mill spreads are widest in segments such as HRC steel in China, based on export prices, and scrap-based EAF mill flat steel products in the US.
Underlying iron ore costs and coking coal import costs were little changed in May, compared with April.
Iron ore import prices into China settled at $65.95/dry mt CFR China in May, from $65.27/dmt in April, and were off compared to February’s 11-month high of $77.46/dmt CFR China.
With stable coking coal import prices last month, raw material costs for reference iron ore and premium coking coal imported into China in May were marginally higher than in April, and 11.4% higher than a year earlier. This is based on spot prices and quantities used per metric ton of hot metal.
CHINA HIGH
Chinese mill spreads between HRC steel export prices and imports of iron ore with coking coal in May moved up to $365.28/mt, up 2.2% on April. As of Tuesday, the spread was at $363.88/mt FOB, with levels coming off a peak at $371.80/mt on May 28.
The ASEAN HRC spread rose to $386.72/mt in May, based on TSI delivered HRC CFR ASEAN port, up 1.5% on April.
US scrap-based mill spreads rose in May, with steel prices supported by import tariffs. Steel pricing outpaced increases for benchmark Midwest shredded scrap prices.
The US HRC and shredded scrap spread hit $553.33/st ex-works Midwest average over May, up 2.1% on April, and compared with Q1’s $436/st average.
The S&P Global Platts China rebar export price-based spread climbed to $329.04/mt in May, up 4.6% from April.
Source: Platts










🙏

2018年8月14日星期二

Ssteel 5665南鋼趁低投资。



(吉隆坡16日讯)产品销量增加,带动南达钢铁(SSTEEL,5665 ,主板工业产品股)截至3月31日第三季净利按年增长63.99%,且派发每股3.5仙中期单层股息。
该公司第三季净赚5226万7000令吉或每股12.07仙,上财年同季为3187万2000令吉或7.54仙。



同时,营业额从6亿6591万令吉,按年上升43.17%,达9亿5337万令吉。
合计首9个月,净利按年激增1倍,达1亿7564万令吉或每股40.67仙。
营业额则上涨41.67%,达28亿956万令吉。
南达钢铁指出,虽然需求将在末季受到佳节而疲弱,但董事部预计,集团将会在本财年交出令人满意的业绩表现。


逆风围绕.钢铁领域复苏缓慢

Sinchew Tue, Aug 14, 2018 - 1 day ago


(图:法新社)
(吉隆坡13日讯)大马钢铁领域正迎来更多逆风吹袭,分析员预期该领域复苏将比预期缓慢。
MIDF研究表示,我国钢铁领域预期将受到来自贸易战的更多逆风。目前,市场已经消化贸易战争的风险,例如本地钢铁商出口到美国和欧洲的产品将被征收关税。
另一方面,中国建筑领域下滑,导致对钢铁需求不稳定。中国制造领域对钢铁的需求达3亿6000万公吨,占其60%全年消耗量,但因中国的环境健康和职业安全政策,该需求预计会进一步萎缩。
MIDF研究表示,在贸易战及美国和欧盟征收关税的消息大量涌入后,安裕资源(ANNJOO,6556,主板工业产品组)、利实镀钢(LYSAGHT,9199,主板工业产品组)、南达钢铁(SSTEEL,5665,主板工业产品组)、CSC钢铁(CSCSTEL,5094,主板工业产品组)、麦克伦钢铁(MYCRON,5087,主板工业产品组)和聚美钢铁厂(CHOOBEE,5797,主板工业产品组)均受到负面影响。
该行估计,这股趋势将持续,在2018财政年全球钢铁需求预计增长1.8%至16亿1610万公吨,而2019财政年因低需求而增长至16亿2670万公吨,按年仅增0.7%。这显示我国钢铁厂出口需求降低,但大部份国内钢铁公司受日常开销成本和运营支出的影响,使该领域缺乏吸引力。
该行指出,政府重新推出销售税(SST)将给予建筑及钢铁领域一些喘息的空间。政府已宣布建筑材料及建筑建设不征销售税,建筑领域因此将暂时摆脱目前受项目削减的冲击。钢铁和建筑领域是相互联系,因为钢铁业严重依赖建筑项目展开时的建筑材料需求。销售税将可让钢铁领域无任何额外成本,继续维持钢铁供应给建筑领域。
MIDF表示,目前钢铁厂的产能仍维持在70%以上。全球贸易政策的变动下,全球需求放缓和本地钢铁厂成本结构,将继续令钢铁公司的需求受抑制。该行预计钢铁领域2018-2019财政年将受负面影响。
@只是分享,投资自负。
投资正道。(南钢5665) http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html
螺纹鋼4375RMB/噸,大马長鋼产品在进囗征18%保护稅下,外面进口货早己无利可图,经之前的回调,现買入長鋼股是良机。
,ssteel買入于净利爆升前.
网友分享,参考一下。
1)windcloud :
Next week Ssteel will announce its last qtr result (ignore its court case with assumption this has been fully provision in accounts)

1) Compared to same qtr corresponding year, we notice that average selling price has picked up from 2nd half year 2017 until now, and although compared to previous qtr, there is single digit % dropped in revenue, but compared to same qtr previous FY, the average selling price is still better to cover the COGS, estimate revenue will be 840,000-880,000 in between.

2) Graphite electrode, the cost of this item is being diminished from its high, there should be some reduction on this purchase cost.

3) Bottomline, using 850,000 x 5% = 42,500 (M) AGAK AGAK for this qtr (assume no PPE written down). So total 4 qtr profit will be 218,000 (M). So annual EPS will be 218,000 / 433,642 = 0.50. Using PE 6, so the TP will be 3.00.

Now the price is 1.86, potential upward is about 61%. Besides, the steel price is still climbing upward coupled with the continuation of infra and mega building projects and exemption of SST on steel products, what you need to wait for ? Tomorrow first thing is to buy Ssteel.

You may miss the ride on Lionind, but don't forget there is another diamond for you to collect, there is Ssteel. Forget about Graphite Electrode cost, since average selling price is climbing up whereby graphite electrode cost is stepping down.

Remember ……. BUY SSTEEL BEFORE RESULT OUT
2)ooi t b:
Please note that Ssteel had been making profit year after year after 2010 except 2015 and 2016.
The losses in 2015 and 2016 were due to China dumping of steel bars below cost in Malaysia.
China government is cutting down the output of steel bar produced to protect the blue sky.
There is a shortage of steel bars in China now, there is no more dumping of cheap steel bars to Malaysia.
There is an import tariff of 18% imposed by Malaysian government to protect local steel bar producers.
The worst is over for Ssteel.

The current weakness on the share price of Ssteel is due to fear factor, there is no change in term of business fundamental.





2018年8月12日星期日

IHH 5225 IHH医疗保健逢跌投资。

李文龙‧IHH医保的新挑战!
Author: Publish date:

IHH医保(IHH,5225,主板贸服组)加码印度市场投资,准备投下44亿令吉,收购印度的富通医疗集团57.1%控制性股权,普遍获得市场唱好。
IHH医保(IHH,5225,主板贸服组)加码印度市场投资,准备投下44亿令吉,收购印度的富通医疗集团57.1%控制性股权,普遍获得市场唱好。
市场看好IHH医保在印度出击,个中原因相当明显;该公司原本在印度南部已有投资业务与经验、印度的医疗业发展潜能庞大、公司是亚洲最大医药保健公司、及拥有良好业务扩展记录等。对它改善富通医疗集团业务的能力给予肯定。
所谓“天下没有白吃的午餐”,要在富通医疗集团投资成功,尚有诸多问题还得解决,可说是未来的挑战不少,首要重任就是要将富通连续3季亏损及其他潜在难题扭转,重返赚钱的轨道。
富通创办人两兄弟,之前涉嫌违规挪用公司45亿卢比的资金、使公司需要面对印度股市监管机构的调查、涉及款项是否更为庞大,都是IHH医保需要解决的个中难题。市场认为,至少需要一两年时间,才有望进入市场所期望的成长阶段。
所以,投资者还得需要一点耐心,才可断定这项庞大投资计划的成败。特别是不在自家后园做生意,海外或国际市场挑战更为严峻,稍有差错或疏忽,后果难以预料。相信亚通(AXIATA,6888,主板服务组)在印度市场投资流动通讯业务的经验,可作为借镜。
话说多年前,亚通通过投资联号公司——IDEAL进入印度市场,当时印度通讯业也是吸引国内外业者大肆投资,竞争非常激烈,直至出现其中一家通讯公司展开“割颈”策略,连续多时推出免收费流动通讯服务,以争取客户市占率。这逼得其他对手不是倒下关门大吉,就是需要投下更多资金应战。
这使亚通在印度的联营投资出现进退两难的窘境;进则需要更多投资资金,退则需要面对亏损及退出印度市的困境,不进不退则是股权可能会被稀释,至今尚未披露是进或者退。
随着IHH医保已在印度买下富通,只有勇往向前。同时也需要一点点运气,所谓“谋事在人,成事在天”,很多时候,浮现的问题,实在是在控制范畴或能力以外,所以希望亚通在印度经验,不会重复降落在IHH医保身上。这将巩固IHH医保的亚洲第一家地位,为股东赚得笑不拢口,值得期待。

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1777149/李文龙‧ihh医保的新挑战!




只是分析,買

2018年8月10日星期五

Lionind 金獅工业4235 趁低投资。

1)购美佳资产.无承担债务.金狮工业强化钢铁地位

Sinchew Fri, Jul 06, 2018 


(吉隆坡5日讯)金狮工业(LIONIND,4235,主板工业产品组)指出,该公司收购美佳钢铁(Megasteel)旗下的扁钢资产,将得以扩大旗下钢铁生产范畴,包括扁钢产品,同时可以较低的投资成本,加强在大马钢铁工业的地位。
透过这项收购,该公司业务扩展至扁钢业务,每年约可生产320万公吨热轧钢卷及70万公吨冷轧钢卷。
该公司澄清,有关计划只是纯粹收购扁钢资产,没有承接美佳的任何债务或赔偿责任。
此项建议是由金狮工业进行协商的交易,该公司对收购担保资产的价格是5亿3773万令吉,而卖主2017年6月30日提出的是19亿4786万令吉(已稽查)净账面价值及2018年4月30日提出的18亿3914万令吉(未稽查)净账面价值。
金狮工业相信,此建议将能够为集团未来的盈利做出正面的贡献。



Building materials and construction services will not be subject to the Sales and Service Tax (SST), Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said today. (File pix)


PUTRAJAYA: Building materials and construction services will not be subject to the Sales and Service Tax (SST), Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said today.
He said this will be a departure from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime, which applied a six percent levy on basic building materials such as bricks, cement and sand, among others.
“This had led to increased construction costs under the GST era, including an increase in house prices.
“The pressure on house prices, as well as industrial and commercial buildings, is expected to ease with the abolition of the GST and exemption of the SST,” he said in a statement, adding that materials which will be exempted include iron, cement and other materials.
Lee added that the federal government hopes that construction costs will therefore be reduced, and that both developers and buyers will benefit from the reduced tax burden.
Customs director-general Datuk Seri Subromaniam Tholasy had previously said that the SST comprises three categories: zero per cent, five per cent and 10 per cent, with most goods falling into the zero per cent category (or being zero-rated).
The SST will be implemented on Sept 1. On Aug 1, the GST website was converted to an SST website and featured a list of zero-rated goods.
3)

LIONIND – The massive 900,000 ton Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) Plant 100% EXPORT at PE = 1

Author:   |    Publish date: 

To appreciate this article, it is important for readers to understand the difference between Iron making and Steel making.
"Part 1" is the only hardest part, once you understood this all others will be like kacang putihcool
You will then be a Steel Guru for life.

PART 1:  The simple Iron Making process and how the spike in Scrap Iron price against Iron Ore makes HBI producer the ultimate winner?
For a layman to understand one can view their difference in terms of Carbon content. From Iron Ore (having the highest carbon content), Iron Making plants works to produce intermediate products Iron having lesser Carbon content suitable for further processing to make Steel.
IRON ORE (very high carbon content)  -->  IRON (high carbon content)  --> STEEL (very low carbon content)
Schematic Diagram for Ironmaking and Steelmaking below: 


You need to memorize the above,angry this is the only hardest thing in this article! 
Once you have done that, you can proceed to the below sections.yes

1.1: THE IRON MAKING
Referring to the above schematic diagram Iron making plants can be divided into 2 types:
1. Blast Furnace (BF) , shown at top left above
2. Direct Reduced Iron (DR), shown at top right above

BF plant uses Iron OreCoal and Natural Gas to produce Iron referred as Hot Metal and in transportable form is called Pig Iron, whereas
DR plant uses only Iron Ore and Natural Gas to produce DRI, and in a compacted premium form for Export shipment it is called as Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI).
The major difference in their process is that BF actually melts the Iron Ore using Coal in the process of removing its Carbon while DRI as the name itself says, it ‘reduces the carbon content’ without melting ‘directly’ using energy from Natural Gas only without Coal usage.
Images of BF products Pig Iron:
Images of DR products HBI:
  

The only Malaysian manufacturer who makes Iron via BF route is ANNJOO and via DRI route is LIONINDThe rest of the manufacturers do not even make Iron but Steel with their raw material being Scrap Iron mixed with certain fraction of these DRI and Pig Irons. 

1.2 : THE STEEL MAKING:
Referring to the schematic diagram, briefly for Steel making all the reader needs to know now is that:
 1. For BOF methodtheir raw material is Hot Metal (Pig Iron in liquid molten form)
 2. For EAF method, their raw material is Scrap Iron (recycled steel) and substitutes such as Pig  Iron  and  Direct Reduced Iron referred as HBI if imported via sea shipment

These 3 materials - referred as Ironscompete among each other as raw material in Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Steel making plants.
EAF is the current trend in Steel Making process in China to reduce pollution emissions for Environmental reason as it only uses Electricity to melt them.
The Basic oxygen furnace (BOF) method does not have ability to melt Iron. This process (BOF) must be combined with Blast Furnace Iron Making to receive the Pig Iron in hot molten form referred as Hot Metal as its raw material.
Since Blast Furnace (BF) uses Iron Ore & Coal combustions as raw material, it causes significant pollutionas such this method is discouraged and were the targets of steel capacity reduction in China. The same applies to Natural Gas combustion to produce DRI/HBI.
These factors had contributed to selective demand for Scrap Iron instead of Iron Ore (which is the raw material for Blast Furnace) and had caused significant spike in Scrap Iron price and reduced demand for Iron Ore and Coke.
Note: we had already witness Huaan’s recent results due to this.
The same factor above had caused the regional price of Scrap Iron competitors, Pig Iron and DRI to shoot up significantly.

PART 2:  The turnaround in Lion’s HBI plant in 2017 and what will happen in 2018 considering raw material-Iron ore price is declining and product HBI price sky-rocketing with Scrap Iron?
The Labuan HBI plant has a rated capacity of 900,000 tons HBI per annum. During the time before China’s dumping of export steel, the plant used to operate at 92% of its capacity at 825,000 tons per annum (refer table in annual reports and TheStar news in 2004 provided below):
Extract from 2017 AR, page 40:
    

The technology employed is Midrex as shown by the links below. We can see what is the Cost of production of DRI the un-compacted form of HBI as per below link and snapshot from Page 5:
The amount of Iron Ore, Natural Gas and Electricity required per ton production of HBI is fixed for any process. 
As such, using the above same Midrex technology employed by Antara Labuan plant, we can derive the following Costs of Production (refer Table 1 below) and Gross Margin per ton based on the Reported Revenue and Operating Profit of 671M and 67M respectively in 2017.

From Miti publications linke below, we could obtain the following:
Average Scrap Iron price in 2017 : 314 USD/ton
Average Scrap Iron price in 2018 : 376 USD/ton todate ( a rise of 62 USD/ton!)
Average Iron Ore price in 2017     : 72 USD/ton
Average Iron Ore price in 2018     : 70 USD/ton todate ( a decline of 2 USD/ton)
Natural Gas was RM 27.5/mmbtu and expected to rise to RM 31.5/mmbtu average in 2018.

The above figures were used as inputs on the below Table 1 to derive all other parameters which are self explanatory.
Table 1Actual 2017 performance of HBI plant, Labuan:

Note that we can derive the throughput achieved in 2017 (refer (E) on Table 1, if we know the Average Selling Price of HBI which we can estimate to be at a premium against Scrap Iron average price during the year.
From the below link and chart, we know HBI is a premium form of raw material for the Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steel making plants to produce much higher quality steel. HBI always sells at a higher price than Scrap Iron ~ 10 USD/ton:
Refer chart below extracted from this link: http://www.urm-company.com/production/dri
I
With that we can approximate the Average Selling Price (ASP) of HBI in 2017 as derived on Table above as RM 1361/ton.  
The throughput is simply the reported Revenue of 671M divided by the ASP above, giving = 493 tons for 2017
The COGS using the reported raw material price was, RM 685/ton with Iron Ore average cost of 72 USD/ton.

Refer snapshots on MITI publications below showing the Input Basis on above Table 1:
http://www.miti.gov.my/index.php/pages/view/3060?mid=73

Using the same throughput derived above for 2017, let us see the implication on Gross Profit in 2018 with current Scrap Iron price and rise in Natural Gas and Exchange rate as per below:
In 2018 Scrap Iron had moved to an average of 376 USD/ton with Iron Ore averaging at 70 USD/ton. Natural Gas cost used were based on scheduled hike implemented by government above at average of RM31.5/mmbtu.
2018 1st Scenario Table: Maintained Throughput at 493 tons/yr
We would be easily achieving an EPS of 24 cents from this HBI alone!
Meaning you can assume all other plants in west Malaysia ceased operation, and yet it would be trading at PE = 3 with the Labuan Export product.

Now what happens if the throughput is risen to just 87% rated capacity at 790,000 tons/annum instead of their usual 92% at 825,000 ton/annum as reported during 2004 maintaining all other parameters the same:
2018 2nd Scenario Table: Raised throughput to 790 tons/yr
That is 60 cents from this HBI alone. All they need to do is raise their throughput to 87% utilization!
Or hope for Malaysian ringgit to depreciate furtherwink


PART 3: Strong supporting facts for the possibility of above 60 cents EPS derivation in Part 2 , 2nd scenario.
3.1 Historical performance of HBI plant:
We can see from numerous annual report data the HBI plant used to report such fantastic earnings. Refer 2009 annual report extract below which shows it had reported a Profit of 419 million in 2008:
Actual Operating profit of HBI plant alone, reported on their Annual Report 2004 till 2008 before China dumping is shown in Table below which is self-explanatory:

The Scrap Iron prices were obtained from historical publishing. Note if one goes through these annual reports, operation at 90% of its rated capacity was a norm before China dumping.
Lionind HBI plant earnings deteriorated after the Chinese steel dumping activity.  2017 is the year of turnaround

3.2 Case study on what happened in 2004 for such spectacular earnings:
It has all to do with Scrap Iron differential against Iron Ore!
We can see from below news in 2004 the Scrap Iron cost had shot up.
See the TheStar news in 2004 by C.S Tan below which validates the rise in HBI price together with Scrap Iron above.


Please read and understand every word mentioned by C.S Tan on the above news in 2004, 14 years ago!! crying
            And do go through MITI publications on Scrap Iron price for last 7 months.

 3.3 HBI demand prospect 2018:
Go through the below news: Can India cross 1 mnt in DRI exports? By 360 Editor
4 July 2018 
Trade routes obtained from Midrex Publications:
From the above chart, we can see that only the Labuan plant is placed strategically to cover East Asia. The Labuan plant mainly supplies to the growing EAF Steel making plants in Vietnam. The Labuan plant is pivotal to supply the East Asian region demand coming from Vietnam & China.
There is increasing demand for HBI reported worldwide and due to the rising electrode price for EAF plant which makes it more economical to use HBI instead of Scrap Iron.
Lionind would be forced to increase its throughput to its stretchable limits (825,000 tons/yr or higher) as its HBI is used in its Banting EAF plant (refer annual reports) and the plant is restarting currently.
Banting plant restart news: 26 June 2018

3.4 HBI profit margin prospect 2018:
Analysis: Direct reduced iron margin outlook against pig iron healthy, says US miner Cleveland-Cliffs, 
 23 July 2018
Note in our above derivation in 2018 2nd scenario at 87% throughput, we had only used 132 USD/ton cash margin (refer (I) on the derivation Tables).
With current foreign exchange rate favoring export it is even more likely to have HBI margins expanding to generate profits seen in 2004 to 2008.

PART 4:  What could other Steel making plants of Lionind offer on EPS going forward?
Lionind has other EAF Steel making plants as per the following capacity.
1. Amsteel Mills EAF and billet casting line in Banting, Selangor:  660,000 tons/year 
2. Antara Steel Mill's EAF and billet casting line in Pasir Gudang, Johor:  700,000 tons/year
These plants as a minimum should be able to generate RM 180/ton Gross profit  margin matching Masteel (the lowest gross profit/ton locally). If they operate both these plants at 80% of rated capacity, their throughput of products would exceed Masteel current throughput of 850k tons/yr by 25%.
A quick workout adds RM 190 Million gross profit per year on top of the HBI plant earnings. That easily translates to additional Net Profit of 135M or extra EPS of 20 cents per annum on top of HBI earnings.

3. Parkson & Megasteel acquisition prospect
It is possible for Parkson to have had completely turnaround and will start contributing positively to Lionind (even giving extraordinary gains in coming qtr results).
On Megasteel potential acquisition, I hope the below chart on HRC mills margins can speak a thousand word:
I
If one investigates Megasteel’s past poor performance thoroughly, the causes fall on its huge Financial cost burden, high depreciation and its ignorance on its monopolistic position effects it had to local consumers competitiveness, which eventually led to shrinking of its local HRC demand. It was further compounded by the depressed margin during the china steel dumping period.
There is nothing wrong with Megasteel EAF plant technology as such for making HRC, and that is all Lionind is buying at a cheap price. Lionind is simply acquiring a quality asset at an extremely cheap price during an attractive business prospect period as shown on above margins chart.

PART 5: Concluding statement
In my opinion market is totally unaware of the Iron Export contribution to Lionind and mistreating it just like the rest of the local Steel players.
Market has clubbed Lionind with other local steel players like Masteel, Southern Steel which do not have Iron making facilities into the same, and missed the fact that a significant portion of Lionind current bottom line contribution is already from the Export market which are unaffected by the local government policies on infrastructure HSR, ECRL and other mega projects planned by the previous government.
I believe 70% percent of the 8.9 cents EPS reported for Q1 was from the HBI Exports contribution as derived in 2018 1st Scenario Table. The contribution from Johor and Banting plant has yet to reflect on Lionind’s earnings. Also, the full effects of the steep Scrap Iron price spike in Q1-18 will only be reflected in their Q2-18 report. Refer the TheStar news in 2004 above on this time lag effect.
The prospect for the Scrap Iron – Iron Ore price differential to sustain or even expand further is very high due to China’s adamant Blue Sky policy which prevents HBI or Pig Iron makings using Iron Ore locally in China (or for Export regionally) and forced to rely on Scrap Iron (recycled steel) as its Steel making raw material or use Imported HBI from limited producers regionally like Lionind.
If readers understood the presentation above and the implication of the HBI price rise at current exchange rate, the insane valuation at PE = 1 should slowly start to emerge to their rational mind and, hopefully to their feelings eventually.
I am more than willing to clarify on any technical queries the reader may have. 

at the best of my knowledge,
FutureEyes
 4)

LIONIND - Why CHINA would be craving for HBI soon (5 min Cartoon Video)

Author:   |    Publish date: 

Following my recent article below on Lionind's massive HBI plant Earnings potential due to rise in Scrap Iron price:

LIONIND – The massive 900,000 ton Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) Plant 100% EXPORT at PE = 1

Author:   |    Publish date: Sat, 4 Aug 2018, 12:09 PM :

Link here:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/168169.jsp

Please find below link on a short 5 minute Cartoon Video made by Northern Iron Corporation of Canada in 2013.
It explains why in the future by year 2020, China will be having an insatiable demand for HBI (Hot Briquetted Iron).
Technically Scrap Iron supply in China cannot continuously be recycled (with a recycle time of 40 years) and yet provide enough supply for their increasing infrastructure demand unless they use Iron Ore or Scrap Iron subsitutes like HBI.
Since they could not rely too much on Iron Ore (due to strict emissions restriction), they will be inevitably forced to rely on Scrap Iron substitutes like HBI.

HBI was predicted to be the key ingredient China would be craving for by 2020:



HOT BRIQUETTED IRON (HBI): The New Iron Age Part 2 - Balancing Global Metallics Supply and Demand
Original video below:
https://vimeo.com/60475742
The same video can be found in YouTube below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygRgbGy8kC4

So now in 2018,  we are just witnessing the beginning.












lionind的合理价值rm2.收购magasteel用6.38亿,而magasteel的净賬值达18.3亿,長远是超值的,使公司集長,扁钢业务于一身。机会收票。
http://www.klsescreener.com/detail.php?code=5657
http://www.klsescreener.com/detail.php?code=4235 
30/8/2018的第四季度业积只要净利36m,对比去年同季度就是10倍的大进步,加上子公司百盛近期转盈,下来业积也看好,因此股价飞涨完全可以显现。
投资正道,短期4235上位机会大,国内基建会重开跑了,長,扁鋼通吃。
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html
螺纹钢4370rmb 了,lionind買入在净利爆升前。lionind 之前未收购magasteel时股价己創下rm1.67 ,现己收取magasteel资产,在百盛,長,扁鋼业务净利提高后,股价突破1.67是指日可待。
只供参考,買卖自负。