2016年8月27日星期六

太阳能电池板相关视频--


1)電價漲!太陽能轉盈有望 製程直擊



2)

天陽能源 - 太陽能發電光電系統 -

屋頂 廠房 農地的建置規劃及安裝設備



3)

太陽能板 價差2倍! 破解多項選板迷思--

屋頂太陽能20年穩定的退休金收入


4)

高雄厝出怪招?頂樓加蓋變綠建築--

台中/彰化/南投 太陽能發電系統—0980505868 太陽光電安裝 周小姐


5)

南夯「種電」、北仍缺電!認養太陽能板興起--苗栗/新竹/桃園 太陽能發電系統—0980505868


6)

太陽能發電現況 【范揚琪太陽能發電哥與您分享-0918-915-830 】@20160601


7)

《走遍中国》 20160613 会赚钱的太阳能小镇 | CCTV-4


8)

太陽能發電之成本分析篇 主標題+【范揚琪太陽能發電哥與您分享-0918-915-830 】@20160603


9)

太陽能投資與財務自由


10)

攻太陽能發電商機 台廠布局全球種電--苗栗/新竹/桃園 太陽能發電系統—0980505868 太陽光電安裝 周小姐


https://www.tokuyama.co.jp/eng/ir/management/malaysia_pj.html

网友British empire 之分享:
For all those that do not know the above link will explain that
Malaysia produces the purest silicon and must cost effective for 
the production of Solar cells and as it is sold in Malaysian Ringgit no high import costs !
Also the Malaysian government supports any company involved in Green Energy with incentives.
Maybe the smart ones out there are starting to understand why 
Tek Seng can not be compared with failed overseas solar companies 
and are a very strong force in the industry with so many advantages.

買7200 m1,23 ,未來我国家中装太阳能电池市場很大。

2016年8月25日星期四

转贴:德成控股押注于太阳能电池板业务

2016-8-24
a)



由于全球对再生能源的需求不断增长,各国为此启动了各种各样的再生能源
项目,包括大规模的水力发电厂、风力发电厂及太阳能系统。
业务简介
德成控股(Tek Seng Holdings)是一家于2002年成立的马来西亚公司,它起初是
从事聚氯乙烯(polyvinyl chloride,以下简称PVC)相关产品及聚丙烯
(polypropylene)非织造产品的生产及贸易。近年来,集团开始制造太阳能
电池板
截至FY15,太阳能电池板业务为集团的收入带来最大的贡献,占了51.5%
超越了PVC薄膜制造业务,后者的贡献下跌至36.4%。
德成控股的股价从一年前的0.38令吉升高了超过两倍,并在2016年8月22日
以1.31令吉报收。由于这只股的升势凌厉,我们特别为大家深入报道了这只股
,看看市场对再生能源的需求是否可以令公司的股价更上一层楼。
财务表现
在FY15,集团于马来西亚及台湾的业务为其收入带来71.3%贡献。
尽管FY13的表现有点失色,但整体而言,集团过去四年在收入、净利及股本
回报率方面均有进步。从FY11至FY15,集团的净利差不多提高了两倍,
而在同一期间,收入则接近翻倍。德成控股最令人鼓舞的成绩是股本回报率,
后者自FY13以来增加超过10个百分点,显示其盈利以高效率增长。
德成控股公布了十分强劲的1H16业绩,净利报3,130万令吉,已经超越了
FY15全年获得的净利
此外,太阳能电池板业务预期会为集团的FY16收入带来大约70%贡献,
鉴于其获得的订单已经一直排至今年底。 因此,投资者今年可能获得
更高的派息。
增加生产线
先进科技让太阳能电池板的功效更高,而且成本比之前更低,因此对太阳能
系统的需求越来越大。为了应付强大的需求,德成控股计划提高太阳能
电池板的制造产能,从目前每个月的560万块增加至每月1,000万块。
集团目前拥有7条生产线,其中3条在下个月将会全面运作。公司也计划至
2016年底添加两条生产线,让其生产线的数目增加至9条。德成控股估计,
一旦其9条生产线开始全面运作,公司每年可以生产1亿5,600万块太阳能
电池板,基于目前的市值计算,总值达到2亿3,400万美元。
再生能源受到重视
马来西亚的能源、绿色工艺及水务部(Ministry of Energy, Green Technology
 and Water,以下简称KeTTHA)提议在今年建造一个250兆瓦(MW)、
属于公用事业规模的太阳能发电厂,显示市场对再生能源的需求越来越大。
KeTTHA承认,马来西亚离开其使用再生能源的目标还有一段很长的路要走,
并计划增加以再生能源来发电的规模。除了发展公用事业规模的太阳能设施外
,马来西亚政府也批准了一个名为净计量电价(net energy metering,
以下简称NEM)机制。NEM机制让消费者安装太阳能电池板在楼宇的顶部,
日间由太阳能电池板产生的电量可从消费者的电费单中扣除。
虽然政府鼓励全民使用更多再生能源对德成控股是一大优势,但我们对集团
是否能获得公营项目的合约保持谨慎。KeTTHA 最近把在雪兰莪英达岛
(Pulau Indah)开设一座新1,000MW发电厂的合约直接颁给TADMAX资源
(Tadmax Resources)引来媒体的严厉批评。马来西亚媒体指出,这是在过去两年
,发电厂项目第三次直接颁发给一家公司。
总结
基于德成控股过去12个月的每股盈利,其股票目前的估值是本益比的9倍,
而它目前的交易价稍微低于其1.43令吉的52周高位。
尽管其估值合理,们对德成控股保持中立。虽然其订单排至2016年底,
但2017年可能出现变数。由于太阳能电池板在竞争加剧及生产效能提高下
变得越来越便宜,德成控股的毛利在不久后可能会下降。

b)太阳能价格趋势:
http://www.energytrend.cn/solars.html

c)

全球太陽能報價急跌 昇陽科 7月營收月減34.8%

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160802000220-260206


d)
看完就知這行业的前景了,以台湾为例投资种电行业回酬有8,7%,
留意7200tekseng的前景了。Tekseng 幸福的未來己看到,
全球减碳排放,环保意识抬头,这太阳能行业是趋势.。



e)Britishempire 兄之分享:
As we can observe, the revenue of the company had increased 1080% and net profit had triple or increase 373.05% due to their successful diversification to solar cell manufacturing business. Besides that, the EBIT of Tek Seng also increased from 7% to 9% due to the explosive contribution of their solar cell business. Below are a more detail breakdown of Tek Seng in terms of product segment. 




Tek Seng are expected to generate higher net profit since their management had decided to expand 7 manufacturing line in their solar cell manufacturing. Their order book had been filled up for the year of 2016 and 1Q2017. Despite for the high order book for their solar cell manufacturing business, the whole outlook of solar energy sector are promising as well. Below the global solar forecast base on Mercom Capital Group, LLC. 



The ratification of Paris Accord last year means that the world are going to invest more in renewable energy sector especially the solar energy. Besides that, the extension of Investment Tax Credit in the United States had become another catalyst that contribute to the booming of solar energy sector. Hence, according to Bloomberg, the solar installation industry in the United States are expected to double over the next five year. Besides that, China are expected to install approximately 19.5GW of solar cell panel in 2016 and the figure expected to fourfold within 5 years due to air pollution continues to drive China’s environmental policies, of which clean power generation is a big part. Officials from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) are considering raising the 2020 target from 100 GW to 150 GW, which will bring about 21 GW of annual installation between 2016 through 2020. China also has pledged to reach an ‘emissions peak’ around 2030 with non-fossil fuels making up 20 percent of the nation’s energy generation mix, according to the report issue by Renewable Energy World. In short, the fantastic sector outlook for renewable energy will be able to drive Tek Seng well in the future.

转贴:TEKSENG: Bound to Rebound (Morning Session)

Author: smartrader2020   |   Publish date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016, 11:21 AM 

Post-2QFY16 results, the share price has been comically in downtrend following profit taking by traders and force sell by latecomers. Judging from daily-minutes chart, the stock is already at the bottom, where it is on fibonacci retracement of 61.8%. Other indicator, RSI is in oversold zone at lowest point of 21 level. In short-term, the stock is bound to rebound as selling is overdone and traders and investors may want to take opportunity to establish position in this knee-jerk price reaction at bargain RM1.24-RM1.25. Traders can look at between RM1.34-RM1.36 as exit points. Along the way up towards short-term exit points, some remaining force sellers may put pressure on the share price. Thus, stay calm and do not get panic!
Fundamentally, the stock still has more upside potential to approx. RM2.04 based on conservative PER of 10x to annualised FY16 earnings, (still below 3-year average PER of 14x). To recap, Tekseng's 1HFY16 net profit jumped by more than 4x to RM31.31mn or 10.18sen EPS from RM5.82mn or 2.39sen EPS in 1HFY15 due to higher revenue across all segments of totalling RM290.81mn from RM137.83mn in 1HFY15. Outlook remains on the sunny side as evidently shown in 1HFY16 results performance despite uncertainty in global economies.
Should the stock maintains above RM1.17, mid-longer-term bullish view remains intact with an expectation offundamental TP of RM2.04 (during the period from now till end of the year 2016). It will retest RM1.43 for the third attempt before continuing to move higher from there.

Source: Online trading platform


2016年8月23日星期二

转贴:SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK


Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Electricity and Heat Generation from Renewables

EIA expects total renewables used in the electric power sector to increase by 10.5% in 2016 and by 4.3% in 2017. Forecast hydropower generation in the electric power sector increases by 7.8% in 2016 and then falls by 2.0% in 2017. Consumption of renewable energy other than hydropower in the electric power sector is forecast to grow by 12.9% in 2016 and by 9.6% in 2017.
EIA expects that utility-scale solar capacity will grow by 8.0 gigawatts (GW) (60%) in 2016 and by 5.3 GW (25%) in 2017. The projected amount of solar capacity at the end of next year, 26.7 GW, would be nearly double the amount of capacity existing at the end of 2015. States leading in utility-scale solar capacity additions are California, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia. Forecast utility-scale solar generation averages 1% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2017.
U.S. wind capacity totaled 72.5 GW at the end of 2015, more than five times the amount of solar capacity. Wind capacity is expected to increase by 7.5 GW (10%) in 2016 and by 8.5 GW (11%) in 2017. Forecast wind generation accounts for almost 6% of total generation next year.

Liquid Biofuels

On November 30, 2015, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized a rule setting Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2014 through 2016. On May 18, 2016, EPA released the proposed RFS volumes for 2017 along with finalized biomass-based diesel volumes for 2017. EIA used both the final and proposed volumes to develop the current STEO forecast through 2017. Ethanol production averaged almost 970,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average about 980,000 b/d in 2016 and 2017. Ethanol consumption averaged about 910,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average about 930,000 b/d in both 2016 and 2017. This level of consumption results in the ethanol share of the total gasoline pool averaging 10.0% in both 2016 and 2017.
EIA expects that the largest effect of the RFS targets will be on biomass-based diesel consumption, which includes both biodiesel and renewable diesel and helps to meet the RFS targets for use of biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel. Biodiesel production averaged 82,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average 99,000 b/d in 2016 and 106,000 b/d in 2017. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to rise from 29,000 b/d in 2015 to 41,000 b/d in 2016 and to 47,000 b/d in 2017. EIA assumes about 10,000 b/d of domestic renewable diesel consumption will be used to help meet the biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels RFS targets in both 2016 and 2017.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

EIA estimates that energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide decreased by 2.7% in 2015. Emissions are forecast to decrease by 1.5% in 2016 and then increase by 0.8% in 2017. These forecasts are sensitive to assumptions about weather and economic growth.


2016年8月19日星期五

[转贴] 阿笔谈股系列5- 浅谈TekSeng- 阅读报纸的感想

Author: ahbi   |   Publish date: Fri, 19 Aug 2016, 01:16 PM 



最近阿笔阅读星报,文章标题:TekSeng Counts On Solar Cell Business, 报导于18/7/2016 (星期一),文章有提到该公司太阳能的业务(solar cell)的订单可以忙到今年年尾,(TekSeng Holding Solar Cell business to generate about 70% of the company revenue this year given that the order book has been fill till the end of this year)。http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/18/tek-seng-counts-on-solar-cell-business/
“订单可以忙到今年年尾”,这句话引起了阿笔的注意。
TekSeng有两个主要业务:PVC业务和太阳能的业务(solar cell)。
从过去几年的年报,可以发现TekSeng的PVC业务缺乏成长空间,net income/year 保持在RM12-16M之间。反之,太阳能的业务(solar cell),从亏转盈,有成长的空间。

TekSengPVC业务价值多少?
TekSeng的PVC业务缺乏成长空间,net income/year 保持在RM12-16M之间, 所以P/E 5倍应该合理(RM60-80M).

目前,TekSeng股价RM1.33, 市值RM442.32M, 又有TekSeng-WA股价RM1.08, 市值RM63.03M,所以TekSeng总市值RM442.32M+RM63.03M= RM505.35M。
如果你每股RM1.33 买入, 代表你认同太阳能的业务(solar cell)价值RM425-445M (RM505.35-60).
Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务(solar cell)的股份。

TekSeng的太阳能的业务(solar cell)价值多少?         
太阳能业务
收入
净盈利
净利率 (Net profit margin)
备注
季报(31/3/2016)
88.97M
20.32M
23%
Gain on foreign exchange (额外外汇收益)
季报(30/6/2016)
100.59M
13.27M
13%
没有额外外汇收益

未来会有更多生产线投入运做
-该公司管理层已说太阳能业务的订单可以忙到今年年尾和
-新增加的3条生产线会在九月全面运作,和
-2016年底,会再增加2条生产线
-从目前270MV生产力增加到 740MV(4条生产线增加到9条生产线)

所以阿笔大胆假设,原有的270MV生产线可以在2017年全面生产,所以价值RM260M[假设 P/E 10, 净盈利13.27Mx 4 quarter ,  Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务(solar cell)]

所以, 基本上你是投资RM185M(RM445-260),希望太阳业务有好的成长潜能(4条生产线增加到9条生产线)。可能价值RM530M[假设新增加的5条生产线在2017年全面生产, P/E 10, 净盈利26.54Mx 4 quarter ,  Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务(solar cell)]。阿笔觉得新增加的5条生产线在2017年全面生产可能性不高,但达到50%生产力,应该不难。

下一篇阿笔谈股系列将和大家讨论Penta
注::阿笔个人持有该公司股份,但并非该公司董事,顾问或员工。以上投资分析,纯属阿笔个人意见和观点。任何人因看此文章而造成任何投资损失,阿笔恕不负责。

免责声明:以上言论纯属读者分享,并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,怒本网站不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢

Monday, 18 July 2016

Tek Seng counts on solar cell business

 
BUKIT MINYAK: Tek Seng Holdings Bhd’s solar cell business is to generate about 70% of the company’s revenue this year, given that the order book has been filled till the end of this year.
Group managing director Loh Kok Beng told StarBiz that Tek Seng was gradually increasing the solar cell production capacity to 10 million pieces per month from 5.6 million pieces currently, or about 250MW production capacity.
“We now have a total of seven lines, of which three will be fully operational in September. Two more production lines will be added by end of 2016, which will increase the total number of lines to nine by the end of this year.
“With nine lines in full operation, our capacity per annum from end 2016 onwards would be 740MW or about 156 million pieces of solar cells, which will have a market value of US$234mil, based on today’s market value of solar cell,” Loh said.
He added that given the market value of US$1.50 for a piece of solar cell, the total value of 10 million pieces per month would be about US$15mil.
“The price of solar cell has gone down to US$1.50 per piece from US$1.60 earlier this year due to the drop in silicon wafer price to 82 US cents, compared to 90 US cents earlier this year,” Loh said
He added that the company’s solar-cell orderbook had been filled to the end of the year.
According to the Colorado-based global research house IHS, the demand for solar modules would grow, stemming from the increased global solar installation demand, and this could reach 65.5GW this year.
The IHS report noted that module shipments would exceed 2015 numbers by 10%, with revenues hitting US$41.9bil.
According to SolarPower Europe, the new EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association), the cost of solar power installation has come down quicker than expected and the trend will continue.
“The lowest reported in-house module production cost (including depreciation) in China was 37 US cents per watt in the first quarter 2016,” the report said.
Canadian Solar, one of the three biggest solar companies in the world by revenue, targets module cost to be as low as 29 US cents per watt by the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the SolarPower Europe report.
The growth in solar power installation in Europe this year is expected to decline, according to SolarPower Europe, as contractors with solar power projects are waiting for prices of solar cells to come down further.
The global installation of solar power is expected to hit 97GW by 2020, up from about 50GW in 2015, according to the report.