2017年10月12日星期四

5098 MaSteel 大马钢厂 Rm1.34 能否投资?

--Masteel Rm1.34 趁低買入,小而美,红股后调整完,随着鋼价的上升,它拥4亿多价值庫存己增 
 值,短期目標价Rm1.55。 
--長钢四支都可进,个人觉得论公司股数,成交,股价,masteel更具赚副,兩季度EPs=10sen,估   计2017年12月止的财年可赚EPs=15sen,取pe=12,股价=RM 1.80 。
--原材料将维持现状,中国为最大钢铁生产与消费国,现有很大权力的定价权,未來1,2年钢价可企穩,国 内钢铁在反倾销税保护下,业者可保净利水平,公司存货与生产是並行的,之前的货现可卖到好价,masteel是被低估股票。合理价rm1.80
 --现在股价rm1.34只是在本益比(pe)8.9倍交易,取2017全年eps=15sen计算.
 --于30-6-2017公司CASH=3078万, 贷款=3.49亿, NTA=RM1.84
--库存为4.33亿 /3.10亿股数=RM1.39(个人简单计算).
--4%赚,(个人简单计算): 年营业约12亿 乘以4%=48m ,
  48M/310M 股数=RM0.15 ,PE=12,股价=RM1.80
--受益于马来西亚政府施加13.42%螺纹钢一种保障税率和线材13.9%,螺纹钢的线圈。
只是分享,投资请三思且自负。
--Prospects 
Strong international steel prices driven by tight supply of finished goods and increase of raw materials costs have yet to be fully reflected in local steel prices. The local demand for steel remains subdued while the roll out of many mega project is expected to only materialize in the next few quarters. The high price of imported steel together with increasing costs of raw materials present a potentially conducive condition for the margins of the Company's products to improve in the near term.







http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5098.jsp

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5098

http://www.masteel.com.my/
a)

MASTEEL – Top 4 Rebar Manufacturer in Malaysia - Davidtslim (Part 2)

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Reinforcing steel bars (rebar) are used to help concrete withstand tension forces. Recent two years Malaysia has started (some going to start) many big infrastructure projects boosted the demands of rebars. Let see following news for the China's Steel Exports Drop over 20% for 3 Consecutive Months
http://www.zhongliangang.com/en/freeShow.do?flag=2&id=0000251094

Source: http://www.zhongliangang.com/en/freeShow.do?flag=2&id=0000251094
From the news, China steel export to Malaysia has dropped 53.2% since June 2016.
Let go back to one of the Malaysia top 4 rebar manufacturers, Masteel. Masteel main products are steel billets and steel bars, with annual production capacity of 700,000 MT for billets and 600,000 MT for steel bars. Let see the following statement from Masteel annual report 2016 for its current utilization rate.

Source: Annual report 2016
According to annual report in 2016, the utilization rate of Masteel is around 80%. From last quarter report, Masteel has an inventory value of RM433 mil. This inventory value is considered HIGH if compared to its revenue (around 300 mil) and market capital (406 mil). In fact, the inventory value is even higher than the whole Masteel market capital. With high ASP (average selling price) and good demand in Q3 (July – Sept), it is very likely Masteel may increase their production as their plants utilization rate is still stand at 80% in FY 2016. Let see Masteel’s management team Forward Looking Statements from their 2016 annual report as below:

Source: Annual report 2016
Let us see how the Masteel valued its inventories in their annual report 2016 as below:

Source: Annual report 2016
The key here is first-in-first-out (FIFO) basis – this mean the cost of inventories (majorities are raw material) used in the production of rebar during Q3 will be likely lower than my earlier part 1 article estimation (as most raw material purchased in Q2 at lower cost). Refer my part 1 article at https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_masteel/132103.jsp
The (FIFO) method of inventory valuation is a cost flow assumption that the first good purchased is also the first good sold.
For clearer illustration of FIFO, let us go through the following figure where most of their raw materials (scrap metal, electrode etc) were purchased in Q2 (April to June) at lower price (FI – first-In) and then they have fabricated the rebar to be sold in Q3 (FO – first-out). In this case, I believe their cost of sales should be lower due to most of their raw materials were purchased in Q2.

Source: MITI Aug bulletin
 
Source: MITI Oct bulletin (page 11)
As we can observe from the figure (MITI Oct bulletin) above, ASP (average selling price) in Q3 (July – Sept) stood around RM2350 to RM2400 for rebar.  One of the reports by UOB investment bank also shows that rebar price has breach RM2600 in Sept (http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/10/steel-prices-to-inch-upwards/) Here is some excerpt from UOB thestar report.

Source: UOB Thestar news report.
Let see the past records in their Annual Report 2016 which shows that most of the inventories are consist of raw materials.

Source: Annual report 2016
The high level of raw materials in their inventories level indicates that these inventories maybe enough for 4-5 months productions of rebar.
It is worth noting that the inventory value is verified by Independence auditor as shown in their annual report 2016 as below (anyway this is for inventories up to 31 Dec 2016).

Source: Annual Report page 113
In short, if Masteel manage to increase its production capacity utilization by 8% and most of its raw materials were purchase in Q2 (April – June), then I would expect higher revenue and higher profit margin can be generated in Q3.
Let assume their cost of production increased by about 5% and 12% in August and September respectively due to lower FIFO inventories cost (original assumptions are 8% and 15%) as shown in the table below:
 July (RM)Aug (RM)Sept (RM)
ASP per ton
~2200
~2450
~2600
Cost per ton
~1900 (maintain  cost as old inventory)
~1995 (+5% vs +8% in part 1 report )
~2128 (+12% vs +15% in part 1 report)
Gross Profit Margin (GPM %)
13.6
18.57
18.15
AverageGross profit margin in 3 months (%)
16.78

New Coming quarter Profit Forecast for Q3’17 (July-Sept 2017)
Based on the new average gross profit margin percentage, let me have a new forecast analysis for their coming profit for its Q3’17 (to be released in Nov) based on recent rebar price movement.
Calculation of profit (using inventories which are mainly raw materials):
The new estimated average gross profit margin is as shown in the table below:
Projected Revenue330 mil400 mil450 mil
Gross profit based on 16.78% (RM)
16.78%       
-->55.37mil
16.78%
-->67.1mil
16.78% 
       -->75.5mil
I expect revenue should break new high as the ASP of rebar is breaking new high in August and September. Let assume low side of RM330 mil revenue, the gross profit generated is about RM55.37mil based on profit margin of 16.78%(part 1 article is 15.8%). This new estimated RM55.37 mil is more than 100% improvement of gross profit of Q2’17 (RM24.2 mil).
Let see how much the operating expenses and finance cost from Masteel Q2’17 quarter report as below:
New Gross Profit = RM55.37 mil
New Estimated operation expenses = RM14.19 mil (take Q2 figure + 10% assume higher cost)
Estimated finance cost = RM4.8 mil (take Q2 figure)
Estimated other income (mainly forex gain) = RM2.4 mil (take 40% of Q2 other income)
Net Profit before tax = 55.37 – 14.19 – 4.8 + 2.4 = RM38.78 mil
From Q2 report, their income tax rate is 15.3% (relatively low). I assume coming quarter tax rate 20% is due to I wish to be conservative.
Net Profit after tax = RM31.02 mil --> EPS of 9.99 sen (after bonus issue dilution)
9.99 sen is more than 100% improvement of QoQ (4.38 sen) and over 1800% improvement YoY (0.51 sen)
It is worth noting that 9.99 sen EPS already considered the recent bonus issue and private placement shares dilutions (based on total 310.6 mil shares).
2016 and 2017 Quarter Profit Comparison (after bonus and private placement dilution)
2016 (mil, EPS in sen)
2017 (mil, EPS in sen) Included dilution of bonus & private placement
Q1
5.0, 2.1
14.08, 4.27
Q2
10.68, 4.41
10.6, 3.21
Q3
1.2, 0.51
estimated (~31.02,~9.99)
Q4
4.03, 1.67
?? estimated about      20.44, 5.9 sen
Total
21.038.69
Estimated(~76.14,   ~23.37 sen)
The demands and domestic consumption of steel bar and billets in Q4’17 should be able to sustain due to a pick-up in the construction of mega projects (MRT2, LRT3, Tun Razak Exchange building, Pan Borneo Highway Sarawak, and ECRL). The current high rebar price should be sustainable due to rebar supply in domestic is lower than the consumption and also some export opportunities (like Singapore, Australia etc). The estimated EPS of 5.9 sen in Q4’17 is based on assumption of the same RM2650 ASP price but with 20-25% increment of their materials cost.
Recently, one of their main raw materials (scrap metal) prices have been dropping based MITI newsletter data as shown in the graph below (as compared to my part 1 article scrap Iron price):

Source: MITI weekly bulletin
Based on current price of RM1.34 with a possible 23.37 sen EPS, Masteel forward 6-month fair PE (result released in Feb 2018) could drop below 6x. Most of the steel counters’ PE can reach 8 -10 which imply possible target price for Masteel is in the range of RM1.89 (PE 8x) and RM2.34 (PE 10x) which included bonus issue and private placement dilutions.

Risk
1. Higher scrap iron price locally and internationally which may affect their cost per ton
2. Recent there is a shortage and price hike of Graphite Electrode which is one of their materials for producing rebar or steel. Grap. Electrode (used in electric arc furnace) can provide high level of conductivity and able to sustain high level of generated heat. The price hike in graphite electrode may increase their production cost per ton by RM200 (about 10-12%).
3. Unplanned break down of their machines which affect their utilization rate of their production capacity.
4.  Higher transportation cost due to rising fuel cost in Malaysia in recent two months. Masteel factory is located in Bukit Raja which is closer to LRT project which provides some advantage to its transportation cost as compared to its Peers.
Summary
1. Most of their inventories are made of raw materials (based on data from AR2016) and this will benefit Masteel in Q3 due to higher ASP rebar price. Their inventories management is based on FIFO basis which may drive Q3 profit higher than my Masteel part 1 article’s estimation.
2. Current Masteel’s inventories level (RM433 mil) is even higher than its whole market capital. If Masteel increase their production utilization rate to 90% (from 80% in 2016), then its revenue and profit should break new high (YoY and QoQ) due to higher ASP price of rebar (around RM2350 to 2400 in Q3 and RM2550 in Q4 per ton).
3. Masteel will be benefited from recent rebar price rally from RM2000 to RM2600++ (Sept and Q4) (Possible EPS of 9.99 sen in coming quarter).
4. It is a mid capital rebar counter which the weak Q3’16 and Q4’16 results indicate that it still has big room of improvement in term of EPS or PE ratio. If next quarter can deliver 9.99 sen EPS, then Masteel’s possible fair value could be RM1.89 (PE 8x) and RM2.34 (PE 10x, after bonus).
5. China has implemented steel production cut in Q4, high domestic rebar demands, export market opportunities and low inventory in local rebar manufacturers provide sustainability of high rebar average selling price in Q4’17.
You can get my latest update on share analysis at Telegram Channel ==> https://t.me/davidshare
Disclaimer:
This writing is based on my own assumptions and estimations. It is strictly for sharing purpose, not a buy or sell call of the company.
b)



转贴:
@ 强势板块里淘宝找强势股 找出潜在40%涨幅牛股
12/10/2017
大马股票交易所大市虽疲弱,不过中小型股却有轮流炒作活动,工业制造指数更连续八天创新高,该板块里的优质股,料随大市水涨船高,未来三至六个月展望良好,股价存在上涨潜能。
《九点股票》编辑室本身的看法和做法将专注於强势板块,找出基本面强劲,公司盈利持续成长,估值合理的上市公司。编辑室经过一轮筛选,找出3家公司进行研究,并分享研究报告给白金会员。
《九点股票》编辑团队列为首选股名单的上市公司为:
马钢铁(MASTEEL 5098)
辉高(FAVCO 7229)
两发钢铁(LEONFB 5232)
《九点股票》从工业制造指数板块里,筛选出这三家公司,认为它们的估值合理,过去数个季度盈利呈现成长,今年的盈利也比去年更好,因此列进首选股名单。我们根据自设的基本面计算方式,发现有关股项的潜在空间有40%以上。
无论如何,以上股项需要持有一段时间,我们不进行对敲交易,同时也不认为一两个星期就可以出现涨势。
以下是我们将执行的投资计划:
马钢铁(MASTEEL 5098):
《九点股票》会在1.32-1.35令吉买进,我们计算的目标价格是1.85令吉,止损价格为85仙。我们将持有它六个月,等待价值出现。
c)

[转贴] 大马钢厂MASTEEL – 马币走强的主要受惠者 - RH Research

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MASTEEL创办于1971年,在2005年上市于大马主要板。成立初期,集团在雪兰莪Petaling Jaya经营一家轧钢厂,主要生产低碳钢筋 (Steel Bars)。在1998年,作为提高生产赚幅的战略之一,MASTEEL在巴生Bukit Raja建设一座熔炼厂,主要用于生产钢坯 (Steel Billet) 。这厂房是当地最现代化的熔炼厂之一,年产能达700,000吨。
在2013年,MASTEEL对于其下游业务进行扩展,在Bukit Raja建设一座新的轧钢厂,并已在2015年10月正式投产。在这之前,MASTEEL把Bukit Raja生产的钢坯送往Petaling Jaya进行加工,导致必须承担一笔运输费用。目前,集团可直接在Bukit Raja加工,省时又省钱。
整体而言,MASTELL目前拥有有3家厂房,包括两家轧钢厂和一家熔炼厂,地点分别坐落在巴生Bukit Raja和Petaling Jaya,地理上的优势让集团多年来始终在巴生河流域地区钢铁市场中占有重要地位。
根据多年前的统计,MASTEEL分别占钢胚和钢筋市场的8%及5%。值得一提,小规模使得集团占有市场优势,主要是在争取中小型订单方面。另一方面,其厂房的优越地理位置使得集团拥有成本优势,运输成本仅每吨RM20-22左右,较竞争者的每吨RM40-45节省约50%。集团在近年成功夺取更高的钢筋市场份额,主要因为地理靠近巴生谷大型基建项目以及吉隆坡主要发展计划。
业绩方面, MASTEEL在今年Q1及Q2一共交出RM24.7m盈利,超越FY16全年表现,主要归功于显著的外汇收益。集团的主要收入来自本地市场,占FY16营业额的89%,而其余11%贡献来自出口。
由于美金兑马币在今年初从4.45逐渐下滑至目前的4.26,作为受惠者的MASTEEL在FY17首两个季度一共录得RM10.8m的外汇收益,占了整体盈利的44%。若剔除外汇收益,集团的近两个季度的核心盈利为RM13.9m。
在业务发展上,通过未来5年陆续推出的大型基础设施项目,MASTEEL放眼把东马的销售量进一步提高。集团将瞄准更多新兴终客户,如政府关联企业、西马主要承包商以及东马的新经销商。为了提升销售量15%,MASTEEL正在西马地区积极营销其产品,并预计可从2017-2022年进行中的Pan Borneo大道项目受益。
据管理层说,MASTEEL的钢筋产能将在今年提升,有望带动其收入额外增长RM150m,相等于12.5%的增幅。当然,这前提是钢筋需求持续走高。集团位于Bukit Raja的新轧钢厂使用率达到63.5%,主要生产优质小直径的钢筋Y10、Y12和Y16。未来,多个生产技术将陆续安装在这厂房上,届时有望提高其生产效率。
虽然在过去5年皆创造可观的营运现金流,但是MASTEEL却在业务扩展上投入不少资金,导致派息率非常低。即便在FY16创造RM38m的净现金流,集团也仅建议派发每股0.85仙的股息,引起股东们不满。在今年股东大会上,高达97.5%的股东不通过这笔股息的提案,非常罕见。
展望下个业绩,美金兑马币在Q3从4.30跌至4.20。MASTEEL预计可在Q3继续录得RM3-5m的外汇收益。然而,投资者必须非常小心。若美金兑马币突然暴涨,这势必为集团未来的盈利表现带来极大的影响。本专页相信市场对于MASTEEL的盈利预期非常大,但是其核心盈利却不是大家想象中那么高。
排除外汇因素,本专页预测MASTEEL全年核心盈利为RM30m。若包括外汇收益,其全年盈利可达RM45-50m之间。值得一提,
未来一旦美金兑马币走势趋稳,集团将失去外汇收益的优势。

d)

价格看涨 估值落后聚美两发中钢有赚头

NanyangTue, Oct 10, 2017 - 2 days ago


(吉隆坡10日讯)分析员看涨本地钢铁价格,更建议投资者留意估值及股价表现落后的股票,
如聚美(CHOOBEE,5797,主板工业产品股)、中钢大马(CSCSTEL,5094,
主板工业产品股)和两发(LEONFB,5232,主板工业产品股)。
根据国际贸易与工业部(MITI),9月国内钢条价格按年激增45.5%,按月起6.2%,
达每公吨2642令吉,再创新高水平,而钢坯价格则分别按年上升53.6%,按月增6.5%,
达2363令吉。
这带动今年第三季钢条价格走高至2417令吉,按季增长16.4%,超越今年首季高峰水平
的2233令吉。
大华继显分析员说,由于中国建筑活动季节性放缓,当地钢铁价格将会在末季放缓。
由于中国钢坯价格开始放缓,今年9月中国与大马钢坯差价从8月的18%,收窄至12%。
不过,分析员认为,中国限产及实施更严格的环境控制措施,将带动国际钢铁价格继续走高。
“至于大马市场,政府颁发更多基建及大型项目,特别是轻快铁第三路线(LRT3)工程,
将带动国内需求增长及扶持价格。”
分析员对建材领域抱着乐观看法。由于国内及全球营运环境良好,所以预计今年下半年盈利
将显著胜于上半年。
首选安裕资源
此外,分析员指出,第三季钢铁领域的偏低单位数本益比、大型项目的建筑活动增加,
将推动本地需求,加上目前缺乏诱人的替代投资,所以建议投资者加强留意钢铁股。
“随着钢铁公司采取有效资本管理措施,我们亦相信估值将进一步走高。”
分析员的首选股是安裕资源(ANNJOO,6556,主板工业产品股),而其他值得留意
估值及股价表现落后的钢铁股,包括聚美、大马钢厂(MASTEEL,5098,主板工业产品股)、两发、中钢大马及鸿达资源(PRESTAR,9873,主板工业产品股)。
e)

Steel prices to continue upward trend, could breach RM2,650 mark




PETALING JAYA: Analysts are bullish on the local steel sector and expect prices to continue on an upward trend this year on the back of higher infrastructure contract awards.

After reaching another record high of RM2,642 per metric ton (MT) last month, analysts told StarBiz that there is room for steel prices to further surge.

Some are of the view that it could breach the RM2,650 mark by year-end or the early next year amid some easing in the construction activities in China in the current quarter.

The boost to steel prices will come from stronger demand for existing and upcoming mega infrastructure projects, analysts added. UOB Kay Hian analyst Abdul Hadi Manaf, who is bullish of the sector is maintaining his overweight stance on the sector.

“We expect investors to give due attention to the steel sector, given the sector’s cheap single-digit price-earnings (PE) multiple in the third quarter (Q3 17), rising domestic demand (amid rising construction activities of mega projects) and the dearth of alternative compelling investments.” he added.

He also believe that valuations could stretch further for companies that undertake effective capital management. “Ann Joo  is our top pick, while notable stocks include Choo Bee Metal Industries , MaSteel, Leon Fuat, CSC Steel and Prestar Resources,’’ he noted.

According to the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) data, local steel bar prices rose further to reach another record high of
RM2,642/MT in Sep 17 (+45.5% y-o-y, +6.2% m-o-m), while local billet prices increased to RM2,363/MT (+53.6% yoy, +6.5% mom).

This brought steel bar prices in Q3 17 to RM2,417/MT (+16.4% q-o-q), exceeding the peak of RM2,233/MT in Q1 17.

UOB Kay Hian expect the increase in domestic demand brought about by more contract awards for infrastructure and mega projects, particularly LRT 3,  to provide support to domestic steel prices.

However, it noted that prices may ease in Q4 17 to reflect the seasonal slowdown in China’s construction activities. In September, China steel billets fetched a 12% price premium to local billets versus an 18% premium in August 17, as China billet prices have started to ease.

While most steel companies trade at about 10 times annualised PE, Choo Bee and MaSteel trade at only half their respective annualised price-to-book
multiples.

Leon Fuat trades at only 5.0 times 12-month trailing PE while CSC Steel’s share price has been flat since July 17. Prestar comes across as interesting, riding on the various upcoming highway projects.

2017年10月10日星期二

转贴:Hibiscus just missed out the September oil rally.

Author:   |    Publish date: 

Insights from BIMB Report
BIMB recently published Market Insight Report on Hibiscus Petroleum with a BUY call. The report shared invaluable insight concerning the business condition as well as material update on North Sabah acquisition from Hibiscus management. Of note is the completion date of North Sabah acquisition is now to be expected by end 2017 or sometime in early 2018.
BIMB also reported that Anasuria FPSO had done a crude offtake in August and was totally offline for a month from mid-Sept 2017
(Source: BIMB Market Insight Report)

What does it impact to the financial results?
Crude oil price is known to be both volatile and cyclical. Price of the crude oil benchmark at approximately the time of a scheduled offtake from the Anasuria FPSO is critical to the quantum of revenue Hibiscus is going to receive from the proceed of the sale.

(Source: Hibiscus Q417 Report)

Anasuria FPSO has storage capacity of 850k bbls, while total quarterly production around 600k bbls, so it should be just one offtake per quarter. It is reasonable to conclude that, with offtake done in August, Hibiscus had miss out the oil price rally in September. Rather than selling the oil near US$57.00~59.00, the realized price was probably nearer to US$51.50 as shown in the chart. 


The Anasuria FPSO shutdown from mid-Sept 2017 is probably immaterial to oil sales in 1Q2018 (Hibiscus Financial Year begins on 1 July) but will likely see sizeable reduced oil sales in 2Q2018, only partly compensated by higher volume from the recently reopened Guillemot-P1 and Teal South P1.

1Q2018 Financial Result Forecast
 Based on the above information, operating parameter and financial result forecasted for 1Q2018. 
* 4Q2017A include one-off RM10.3m forex gain attributable to a revaluation of the provision for decommissioning costs and RM3.9m impairment of receivable.
** Assuming a more normalized tax rate of 35% vs 69% in 4Q2017A.
*** Higher operating costs due to startup costs related to Guillemot-P1 and Teal South P1, Anasuria FPSO's scheduled maintenance & lower production volume due to Anasuria FPSO shutdown.

Key Reflections
“The problem of oil is that there is always too much or too little”, Myron Watkins, professor of economics at New York University, wrote 80 years ago. Inelasticity of supply and demand mechanism underpinned the volatility and cyclicality nature of the oil price and ultimately affects the profitability of the industry. 
Hibiscus will likely perform better in 1Q2018 compared to preceding quarter, driven mainly by normalized tax rate.  However, given the elevated market expectations and particularly having missed out on the September crude oil rally, cautions against earnings disappointment are advised.

Disclaimer:
This is a simplified sensitivity analysis intended as a guidance for investor to value the share price of Hibiscus. For educational purpose only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Far better analysts have been humbled by actual market results compare to their forecasts. The author humbly admits to his inadequacies given the limited data sets to work on and urges readers to treat this forecast with a strong dose of skepticism. Actual released results may make this article a good joke and hopefully a good laugh heals all!!

个人观点:
--任何时候油气都是交通工具,工,农业消耗品,不会是名阳业,且储存量会渐渐少的,环保意识的提升下,
电动车取代部份燃油车,比例佔很低,虽然在采油技术改进下油气产量大增,但消费量也增多,
信今后油气仍然是产生动能最可靠实惠的产品,短时间是其他替代品无法取代的。
--每天生产3500捅原油,下來並可提升产量,布伦特油价保持55usd之上公司可袋袋平安,零借貸为强勁基石,收购案发效近成,買在低价。
今天的hibiscus 和之前的早己不同,之前公司只是勘探油气,消耗太多资金,一年多前管理层改变方針,直接收购己生产油气资产,造就了公司连续六个季度取得凈利,基本面早已改善,现在有大众,回敎投行的推介,趁油气业前景转佳下,買入並守住是良策。Rm1.00 不是夢。
--OPEC的减产主要来自东半球的产油国,这有助于推高布伦特油价。 
这就是与Wti原油价差距拉大。
--展望未来在美元走弱下,人民币国际化与走强趋势下,中国取得更多的商品定价权,石油人民币时代來了,大宗商品,石油,黄金将走强。
--Hibiscus 5199 :71sen→rm1.00
沙巴油气共享收购成功。 
净利大进步。 
引入新的股东。 
布伦特油价走向60usd. 
产油区发生天災与战乱。 
都是利好。

--如有留意此股过去三周都收高,0.615 ,0.645, 0.67,相信本周可收高过0.70 ,一支股连续上升,
解读为有人買进,投资者看好前景,原油股为趋势股,回酬可观,守得油开见錢入,哈哈哈!
--小股民只能:a)順势而行,b)风险控制,c)量力而为,d)長短皆可.共勉之
整个原油复苏趋势下,守住为金.
大红花开富貴來,大众与回敎投行做莊,有实力不用担心,買在起跑等丰收。
只是分享,投资请三思且自负。

OPEC秘书长看好去库存前景,原油新涨势酝酿中?

2017-10-10 15:40:56 米末2948

汇通网讯——10月10日,原油期货价格上涨,因OPEC称有明显迹象显示市场正恢复平衡,同时在飓风内特过后美国生产仍旧停摆。OPEC秘书长巴尔金都10月9日表示:“全球去库存的过程在继续,近几个月显示这一过程在加速。”
周二(10月10日),原油期货价格上涨,因石油输出国组织(OPEC)称有明显迹象显示市场正恢复平衡,同时在飓风内特(Nate)过后美国生产仍旧停摆。
OPEC秘书长看好去库存前景,原油新涨势酝酿中?
截止发稿,美国原油交投于49.70美元/桶,上涨0.22%;布伦特原油换手于55.95美元/桶,上扬0.29%。
OPEC秘书长看好去库存前景,原油新涨势酝酿中?
OPEC秘书长看好去库存前景,原油新涨势酝酿中?
交易商称油价受到一份OPEC声明的支撑,OPEC称经多年的供应过剩后,油市正在快速恢复平衡。

OPEC秘书长巴尔金都周一(10月9日)对路透表示:“有明显迹象表明市场在恢复平衡,全球去库存的过程在继续,无论是陆上还是海上都如此,近几个月的正面迹象不仅显示了这一过程在加速,而且各地石油储罐都大量排空。”

展望未来,巴尔金都预计到2040年,石油和其它化石燃料在全球能源中的占比将为70%。他的这个乐观估测与大多数分析师的意见相左,分析师大都认为化石燃料的占比到2040年将降至70%以下,因可再生能源和电动汽车将更加普及。

OPEC牵头的减产计划将于明年3月结束,目前各方在协商是否延长减产至明年年底。OPEC下次政策会议将于11月30日在维也纳举行,届时将讨论如何帮助油市重归均衡等议题。

沙特近期表示,计划将11月原油配额减少56万桶/日,该国将继续致力于平衡油市,不仅通过限制产量,也要限制出口量。与此同时,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)还将美国原油产量增幅预期进行了下调,认为一系列的逆风因素将限制美国产量进一步增长的空间。

摩根大通在给客户的报告中称,此前对OPEC减产执行率在第四季将逐步下降的这种担忧现在看来没有根据,如果OPEC将减产协议再延长九个月,则经济增长强于预期可望支持市场继续收紧。

美国原油期货或反弹至每桶50.08美元,因已在49.22美元寻获支撑。

该支撑位是始于8月31日低位45.58美元至9月28日高位52.86美元升势的50%费波纳奇回档位。
OPEC秘书长看好去库存前景,原油新涨势酝酿中?
对该支撑位形成加持的另一支撑位在49.30美元,此为下行c浪的61.8%费波纳奇预测位。这两道支撑位已构成了强有力的支撑区间,并触发美国原油向50.08美元反弹。

若跌破49.22美元,则可能跌向48.36美元,而若涨破50.08美元,则可能进一步涨至50.49美元。

布伦特原油期货可能反弹至每桶56.75美元,因其已经在55.06美元寻获支撑。

该支撑位由上行通道构成,这个通道仍保持完好。小时图乖离率的移动平均值(MACD)出现多头背离,表明空头动能已经有所消散,进一步反弹是有可能的。
OPEC秘书长看好去库存前景,原油新涨势酝酿中?
对从9月26日高点59.49美元至55.06美元这波跌势的费波纳奇回档分析,显示目标位在56.75美元,即38.2%回档位。

若跌破55.06美元,则确认下行趋势向53.17-54.14美元区间延伸;该区间由下行c浪的100%和76.4%费波纳奇预估水准构成。

汇通财经易汇通行情软件显示,北京时间15:40,美国原油报49.71美元/桶,布伦特原油报55.73美元/桶。

机构观点汇总:美元难以继续走强,油价上行空间受限

2017-10-10 10:15:53 梦婕12000
汇通网讯——10月10日亚市早盘,交投相对平淡,避险情绪升温,因特朗普言论恐推升朝鲜地区紧张局势。美元未因9月薪资数据好于预期而进一步走强。本文收集了针对汇市和油市在内的投行机构评论,给大家参考。
10月10日亚市早盘,交投相对平淡,避险情绪有所升温,因特朗普言论恐再度推升朝鲜地区紧张局势。美元并未因9月薪资数据好于预期而进一步走强。本文收集了针对汇市和油市在内的众多投行机构评论,方便大家做参考。

机构观点汇总:美元难以继续走强,油价上行空间受限

美元指数


美银:四季度策略性看涨美指,或涨至96附近。美银美林认为,若美指仍位于50日移动均线上方,将为利好信号,四季度策略性看涨,或涨至呈跌势的20日移动均线96附近。

野村证券:若沃什担任美联储主席,货币政策将发生明显改变。

野村证券分析师认为,沃什曾担任美联储理事,由于反对购债计划而辞职。他曾呼吁美联储对货币政策进行改进,称美联储需要来自市场和“实体经济”的“新鲜空气”。因此,野村证券推测,沃什若担任美联储主席一职,则美联储有可能会以更快的步伐缩减资产负债表,未来再次通过量化宽松(QE)来扩大美联储资产负债表的可能性也将更小。

华尔街最看多的策略师认为标普500指数短线可能回落。

摩根士丹利策略师Michael J. Wilson撰写报告称,美国股市在未来几周可能会出现“回调或整固”走势,因财报季拉开帷幕且标普500指数已经触及预测区间的低端。Wilson所给出的标普500指数年终目标位2700点,是彭博追踪所有策略师中最高的;他给该指数设定的短期波动区间为2550点至2575点;标普500指数在上周创下2552点的纪录最高点。

安本:若换个鹰派美联储主席,美国国债收益率可能升向3%。

安本标准投资管理(Aberdeen Standard Investments)认为,如果敲定由一位鹰派人士接替珍妮特·耶伦出任美联储主席,美国10年期国债收益率将会升向3%。

安本驻新加坡的亚洲固定收益主管Adam McCabe表示,由于美国总统特朗普选择谁来执掌美联储的问题上存在不确定性,令货币政策前景难料,在此期间,整个金融市场的波动性将会升高。衡量美国国债市场价格波动的美国银行MOVE指数上周触及三个月高位。 

外汇


欧元兑美元
路透分析:10日均线对于欧元兑美元走向很关键。路透分析师指出,在创出新低后,周五日线收高,形成多头铁鎚型态。

欧元兑美元在亚洲时段曾试探接近10日均线1.1755,但目前略有回落。10日均线自9月22日以来压制欧元,如果突破将增加欧元走高机率。慢性随机指标向上,而且有上升空间;10月4日高点1.1788是阻力位。

道明证券:欧元兑美元展望积极。
道明证券分析师指出,从长远来看,欧元兑美元看起来很具建设性,特别是在1.1716阻力位突破之后。后续若美国10年期国债收益率未能突破关键水平2.40%附近,且9月非农带来的美元升势受阻,将更加强化我们的上述观点。

美元兑加元
加拿大帝国商业银行:明年初美元兑加元上看1.30。

加拿大帝国商业银行认为,近期加元兑美元进一步走软,不过持续主要体现了市场对美元偏好的改善,而非对加元情绪出现恶化,加拿大短端国债收益率存下降空间,将拖累加元,年底和明年一季度末美元兑加元依次上看1.26和1.30。

欧元兑英镑
野村证券:策略上倾向于做空欧元兑英镑。

野村证券表示,上周英镑表现不及其他G10货币,对英国首相特雷莎·梅未来去留的分歧看法已浮上台面;若梅辞职,那么英镑将快速下跌,若反对者打算长期斡旋,当前预计梅辞职还尚早,英镑焦点将再度重返英国央行货币政策预期和脱欧协商;英国央行11月通胀报告公布之际,策略上倾向于做空欧元兑英镑。

美元兑日元
路透分析:美元兑日元再次遇挫,未能突破112.99。

路透分析师指出,我们仍然看多,认为美元兑日元将涨至位于113.87的30日波林格区间上方。此前,美元兑日元多头再度受挫,周五未能收在112.99上方;而且连续两周未能突破112.99。112.99是118.66至107.32跌势的61.8%回档位;目前汇价在112.22/32附近有强劲支撑。

路透分析:美元兑日元走势本周可能因大量期权到期而受到抑制。

路透分析师指出,美元兑日元仍然倾向上涨,尽管最近遇挫。但是,本周有大规模期权陆续到期,可能抑制现货走势;多头仍然等待周线收在112.99上方。周三:112.80(13亿);周四:112.00(17亿),112.40/50(15亿),113.00(22亿);周五:112.60(14亿),113.00(7.9亿)。

英镑兑美元
彭博:期权交易员再次看跌英镑。

英镑兑美元一个月期看涨期权的成本低于看跌期权,显示投资者的情绪达到6月份英国大选以来最为悲观的程度。不到一个月前,买权的成本转为高于卖权。当时英国央行表示,由于通货膨胀加速,可能会提高借款成本。

澳元兑美元
路透分析:澳元兑美元在0.7727之前预计有更多买盘。

路透分析师指出,如果澳元兑美元延长从0.7782开始的跌势,在0.7727之前可能出现新的买盘。0.7782为亚洲盘高点(0.7786为100日移动均线切入位),0.7750欧洲早盘低点。0.7727为5月低点0.7329升至9月高点0.8125的50%回档位;0.7733是周五触及的12周低点,0.7728为7月14日低点。

对多头部位的获利了结,帮助澳元兑纽元从1.1020走低至1.095;1.1020为在亚洲盘触及的三周高点,受到新西兰政治不确定性激励。

汇通财经易汇通行情软件显示,北京时间09:56,美元指数报93.48;欧元兑美元报1.1779/81;英镑兑美元报1.3169/71;美元兑日元报112.620/22;澳元兑美元报0.7789/91。

原油


路透:菲利普66石油公司称,该炼油厂未在飓风袭击中受损。该公司称,此前因飓风内特暂时关闭的路易斯安那炼油厂正在重新开启,预计数日内完全恢复工作。

路透:WTI与布兰特原油间的贴水反映的是物流瓶颈。

根据EIA数据,7月28日之后美国墨西哥湾的库存下滑1300万桶;东岸和西岸的库存各下滑400万桶。墨西哥湾当地炼厂多由海运取得原油供应。但中西部内陆地区的情况却不同,该地区的供应主要来自国内页岩油产商和加拿大油管。

各地区原油库存出现分化的同时正巧也赶上WTI期货对布兰特原油期货的价差出现大幅贴水。Continental?Resources执行长Harold Hamm认为,EIA的预测是导致WTI对布兰特原油贴水走阔的原因;Hamm指责EIA对于美国国内石油生产过于乐观,这导致WTI油价扭曲。

汇通财经易汇通行情软件显示,北京时间09:59,WTI原油11月期货报49.65美元/桶;布伦特原油12月期货报55.81美元/桶。

2017年9月28日星期四

转贴:Public Investment Bank Bhd has initiated coverage on Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd with an “Outperform” rating at 47 sen and target price of RM1.06

https://www.docdroid.net/Y3AdbRC/hibiscus.pdf









个人观点: 
小股民只能:a)順势而行,b)风险控制,c)量力而为,d)長短皆可.共勉之
整个原油复苏趋势下,守住为金.
大红花开富貴來,大众与回敎投行做莊,有实力不用担心,買在起跑等丰收。
hibiscus 5199 rm0.64
http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/OIL.shtml

ykinvestor之分享 One probably has spotted that in the BIMB research note the foretasted EPS for 2019 and 2020 are 17 cents and 22 cents. So based on PE of 15, the TP should be RM2.55 and RM3.15 So if you are a longer term investors, at the current price is a rea bargain so hitting 0.80 and and rm1 short term looks realistic. 
All the Shell petrol stations in Malaysia have been sold to HENGYUAN. Thus the Sabah oil field should be sold as planned. You can determine youself whether this is a good buy or not. You can read the BIMB's forecast EPS again here. 

http://ir.chartnexus.com/hibiscuspetroleum/download/pdf/media/analyst-reports/BIMBSec%20-%20Hibiscus%20Petroleum%20-%2020170926%20-%20Company%20Update.pdf
Maintain BUY; TP raised to RM0.85

https://www.anasuria.co.uk/