2016年1月29日星期五

myeg 0138 是大马一间生金旦的股票--

非常有看头的政联股! 短期上下起伏为正常,但長期在穩定净利与成長的支撑下,
股价是向上的.公司于30~9~2015 cash 有7877万,loan 才区区761万,每季制造强劲的现金流.
于30~10~2015 的30大股己持有66.311%,包括许多国内外机构基金的喜好,前景一片光明.
Myeg 原來官方机构己有7家可网上服务了,未來还会增加,可说是生金旦的股呀!
--这里借了cc兄之分享,谢谢他的功课.
先看看MyEG有什么服务,这个最简单直接的就是去MyEG那里开个户口,在网上就可以了。这点我在我的讲座会那里已经讲解了,所以你去那边开个户口看看就知道它的潜力了(还有多少个政府工程还没电子化)。

然后,再看看目前这个最新的MyMotor,也谢谢你分享这个资讯来让我们可以知道它这个MyMotor大概可以贡献多少钱于MyEG。这个只是表面而已,当你知道它有什么服务后,你会发觉到它已经是一条龙服务了(也可以称之为一站式服务)。这种服务的好处是可以为消费者省上很多时间加金钱,也就是你可以只依赖MyEG就可以达到你要的东西了。

看到关键点了吗?依赖,当人变成依赖的时候就可以慢慢的加钱。排除这个,目前可以看得出MyEG在2手车的行业里的卖点在那里了,便宜+方便。我相信这个是很多二手车业者的问题和要买二手车的人的问题。

为何我说便宜+方便?便宜是因为要买二手车的消费者不用给多钱给中间人(也就是二手车行业的业者),试想想原本要给多至少几千的钱变相为只给几百块的钱给中间人(这个是MyEG),那么这是不是变成很便宜了?

至于方便,别忘了MyEG有和RHBBANK合作,甚至有MyEG的信用卡,所以这个也变成可以直接跟RHBBANK贷款了。除此之外,MyEG还有卖保险,所以更新保险也可以直接一起和卖出的二手车一起卖。这个不方便吗?据我所知,现在的人都是为了方便,尤其是车险方面。还有一点值得注意的是MyEG也是有更新路税(Renew Roadtax)这个服务的哦。而且还是直接可以送到你家门口那种,试问下这种服务够不够力?

要踏足这个领域的路,MyEG一早就已经打好根基了。所以,MyEG踏足这个领域基本上已经是万事俱备而且还是站尽优势那种。你说它很难在这短短的一个月里给接下来的季报贡献,我不认为咯。。。目前这个月是马来人的重要日子,马来人的生意是很容易赚那种,再加上我所讲的优势。。。这个季度的盈利多过上一季(三月的)盈利的确定性实在是太高了。

当然还有很多,不过我就不打算再讲了。。。费事给他人讲我有意去散播消息推高股价。。
---取自战略特工,谢谢他的功课.

MYEG 服务】- 快速了解崛起中的政府网络服务

不知道大家是否试过亲自去政府部门排队处理过东西,并且深深的觉得如果不需要
耗上那么长的时间等待,会有多么的美好。

近年来,电子商务迅速的崛起,成为了新时代的变革者。

这股趋势势必将会延续,为马来西亚展开新的时代章节。

今天,战略特工将带领大家了解一家提供政府网路服务的上市公司 - 【MYEG 服务】。




【MYEG 服务】是一家提供电子政府服务的供应商,专为大马政府开发线上服务
的上市公司。

主要两大策略业务:

1.政府—公民(G2C)服务:涵盖更新驾驶执照、缴付电子账单以及线上资讯
服务,如检查与缴付交通罚单summons、新路税、申请或报失或重新申请损毁
的大马卡、以及查询破产或清算状态。

2.政府/企业解决方案(GES):非网上服务、如软件与企业解决方案、系统
开发与维修、驾驶执照笔试和数码影像等、以及提供电子服务中心
E-Services Centres)服务。【MYEG 服务】的商业模式非常独特,
它为各参与方面创造双赢的局面,以及符合政府的目标,即支付少许费用便可以
方便获得服务便利,从而提升公共传递系统。

这个概念允许【MYEG 服务】可以不断地向政府建议新的服务和产品。

并且政府也会喜欢这种方式,因为政府不必在这一方面花费大笔的金钱。

对于民众而言,他们只要支付少许的费用,便可以获得网上服务的便利,
从而省下许多的时间、车油和停车费。

现在【MYEG 服务】已经在行业中占有领导地位,这使到它可以提出更多新
的商业建议,而不会面对科技限制,或是必须与其他竞争者分享的问题。

开发新产品的成本非常低以及提供额外的服务,将使到它进一步提升营运效率
和赚幅。

该公司拥有强劲增长前景、高赚幅以及几乎不必担心经济不景气。


数据显示,其2007年6月30日财年的净利从1477万8000令吉,攀高至2015财年
的6804万7000令吉。





盈利爆炸点


【MYEG 服务】的业绩自2007年上市以来,一直呈增长趋势,并于2009年,
从当时的自动报价股转至主版。
2015年可谓是【MYEG 服务】的重点惊喜年,因为该公司获得政府的合约,
垄断外劳准证更新服务。该公司与移民局合作,负责收集和整合国内合法与
非法外劳的数据库。
今年开始,所有雇主必须为外劳,使用【MYEG 服务】的外劳年度更新工作证
(FWPR)
同时,政府极可能在2016年展开新一轮非法外劳漂白活动,分析员预期MYEG服务
有望从中赚取至少1亿令吉收入和4千万令吉净利。

不仅如此,【MYEG 服务】也推出名为MyMotor的全新汽车平台,
以提供综合性网络转账及汽车所有权服务。
根据文告,该平台將为用户搜罗最好的交易,確保平台所销售车辆已获汽车
专家认证,以成为安全可靠的一站式交易平台。

电子商务与服务的兴起,预料可谓公司带来持续的盈利与新业务!

以下是该公司近5年财务重点表现:

不仅如此,2016财政年首季,该公司净利大涨136.7%至2850万令吉,
相较于上财年同期的1204万令吉,归功于网上更新外劳准证和保险交易增加,
以及来自新收购子公司 Cardbiz Holding私人有限公司的贡献。


以下是摘自东方日报在2015年12月18日的报道:


推2新服务 MYEG明年收入加强


(吉隆坡18日讯)隨著MYEG服务(MYEG,0138,主板贸服股)
將于2016年落实两项新服务,预计可进一步加强该公司的收入。

上述两项服务,分別为6P非法外劳漂白计划中的外劳准证更新服务,
以及关税服务税监控系统(CSTM),各將于明年1月和下半年推出,
相信可为该公司营业额带来正面贡献。

根据一名今天出席MYEG服务股东常年大会和特別大会的小股东向媒体表示,
管理层透露服务將陆续启用。

每位外劳准证更新费用为100令吉。现时非法外劳人数介于300万至500万人,
因此,预期MYEG服务明年营业额表现料趋好。

该名股东引述MYEG服务董事经理黄天顺在大会上向股东指出,
该公司早前获得大马移民局所颁发的非法外劳登记服务合约,预计在明年1月实行。

股东也补充,涵盖视频和饮料业务的首阶段CSTM预计在明年下半年推行。

「MYEG服务將可向皇家关税局收取每店家1000令吉固定收入。」
该公司首阶段CSTM原定于2015年第3季落实,惟被延展。若一切顺利,
MYEG服务將会推出第2阶段CSTM,目標为大型零售领域。

股东也称,该公司管理层透露亦会在明年落实道路安全侦查器(
Road Safety Diagnostic Kit)。但,基于政府並未强制性地要求所有罗里及
巴士业者安装有关侦查器,所以无法预测该项目对公司带来的潜在盈利贡献。

另一方面,MYEG服务在今日的特大获得股东通过派送红股的议案。
该公司將以1送1比例,派送12亿零210万股红股(包括433万库存股)予股东,
惟除权日待定。

该项计划將把缴足资本从12亿零210万股或1亿2021万令吉,提高至
24亿零420万股或2亿4042万令吉。

MYEG服务股价年初至今「跑贏大市」,涨幅为85.3%,
优于富时综指年初至今的6.66%跌幅。该股今天闭市报3.91令吉,全天起5仙或1.3%


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


最后附上如何使用MYEG更新路税的分享。

--取自南洋.

股海宝藏: 不受经济起落波动影响 MYEG盈利表现稳定


副刊
理财 2009-06-22 14:57


随着市场波动不定,使到一些投资者开始收敛,而倾向于选择营收、盈利和业务稳定的公司,以便在市场面对激烈调整时,可以采取“进可攻、退可守”的策略。

根据笔者发现,MYEG服务(MYEG,0138,主板贸易服务股)其中一只拥有这样特质的股项,因为根据它2008财政年第三季至2009财政年第三季这5季度期间的记录显示,它的盈利都处在400万令吉以上的稳定水平。

它能够取得稳定的盈利表现,而不受经济起落波动的影响,这主要是与它的业务有着莫大的关系。

众所周知,MYEG服务是一家为大马政府以及人民与商业提供电子服务的公司,其服务包括电子考试登记、执照与传票服务以及公共帐单偿还等。

它是于2007年1月7日在自动报价市场上市,并在2008年12月8日完成以5送6比例派送红股之后,于2009年1月成功转至主板。它的缴足资本为6010万令吉,分别6亿100万股,每股面值10仙的普通股。

该公司可为公众提供大马政府部门如陆路交通局(JPJ)、马来西亚皇家警察部队(PDRM)、马来西亚破产局(JIM)、国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服股)、马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)和吉隆坡市议会(DBKL)的电子服务。

MYEG服务可分类成

a)政府对民众: 这包括不必赶在办公时间亲临政府部门,只需轻轻按键,就能安坐家中或办公室,在网上处理私人事务,如缴付交通罚单、更新路税、申请或报失或重新申请损毁的大马卡,查询个人或公司财务状况。

b)政府/企业方案:这包括软件方案和维修、驾驶执照笔试和数码影像等。

独特商业模式缔 双赢

MYEG服务的商业模式非常独特,它为各参与方面创造双赢的局面,以及符合政府的目标,即支付少许费用便可以方便获得服务便利,从而提升公共传递系统。

这个概念允许MYEG服务可以不断地向政府建议新的服务和产品。

政府也会喜欢这种方式,因为政府不必在这一方面花费大笔的金钱。

对于民从而言,他们只要支付少许的费用(大部份每个交易介于2令吉至3令吉之间,这同邮政局收费不相上下),便可以获得服务便利,而省下许多的时间、汽车和停车费。

现在MYEG服务已经在行业中占有领导地位,这使到它可以提出更多新的商业建议,而不会面对科技限制,或是必须与其他竞争者分享的问题。

开发新产品的成本非常低以及提供额外的服务,将使到它进一步提升营运效率和赚幅。

MYEG服务的业务拥有强劲增长前景、高赚幅以及几乎不必担心经济不景气。

数据显示,在我国拥有1600万辆车辆,这包括轿车,而其余的则是电单车及罗里,它们每年都需要更新路税和保费,这为MYEG服务的业务提供了强稳的基础。

MYEG服务也与国内银行合作,在全国各地置放了55架互动式多媒体资讯站(KIOSK),协助民众更新路税。

除了原有的服务之外,MYEG服务也计划推出更多的服务,包括在2010年推出更多与路陆交通局相关服务,例如电子车辆注册号码申请以及电子新车注册申请服务。

此外,到2010年,它也会推介与统计局和国际贸工部合作的网上服务。

股价估值 仍 廉宜

尽管拥有强劲的盈利增长趋势,但是MYEG服务的股价估值却仍然“廉宜”。

根据Insider Asia的资料显示,它2009和2010财政年的预测每股盈利分别为3.7仙(年对年增长37%)和5仙(年对年增长35%),因此它的股价处于42.5仙的水平,意味着它是在2009财政年11.5倍和2010财政年8.5倍本益比水平交易。

以其吸引人的增长前景、不受不景气影响以及高赚幅的优势看来,它这样的估计属于廉宜的水平。

此外,鉴于前景和盈利改善,Insider Asia也预测它在2009和2010财政年分别会派息1仙和1.5仙,这意味着这两个财政年的周息率分别显2.4%和3.5%。

该公司所面对的风险就是,政府撤回特许经营、计划的批准时限严重展延以及新竞争对手参与特许经营,这些都是会严重影响该公司经常收入的关键。●南洋商报


2016年1月27日星期三

myeg 0138 真的是成长股,净利己12个季度成长了.

过去4年的赚副高达40~48%.
大马首相乱局己告一段落,原油回稳至32美元,長期至50 元合理价,马币回升,
美元回跌,避开出口股,改进国内消费股,如0138 myeg 业务笼断,
稳定收入与政联股,抗跌,股票流通好,買入,cimb tp=rm2.80 ,幸福的前景己看到!
myeg不用看pe,估计2016年 eps =6 sen,pe=50,股价=rm3.00
短期上下起伏为正常,但長期在穩定净利与成長的支撑下,股价是向上的。
供参考,不是買賣建议.
公司网站;(網上更新外勞準證和保險、車子易主及汽車保險和路稅更新服務.)
https://www.myeg.com.my/
子公司;(资讯科技产品、信用卡终端机及其他相关产品里的供应与经销业务。)
http://www.cardbiz.com.my/

持股3至5年‧聯昌力推6大股


Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Tue, 13 Oct 2015, 02:55 PM 

2015-10-13 11:20
  •  
(吉隆坡12日訊)考慮到市面上目前缺少真正的“長期研究報告”,聯昌研究於是以3至5年期作準,推出新的“長期必持股”報告,替那些有意持股極長時間的投資者提供額外參考資料。

有關“長期”的定義,聯昌直言市場一直存在不同概念,如股神巴菲特對長期的解釋可能達30年甚至更久,但市場分析員所謂的“長期”卻可能只代表1年。

因此,聯昌強調將在新報告中,把“長期”的定義拉長至少2至3年,甚至是3至5年。
聯昌研究在報告中說,雖然市場上的分析員一般都有替其所追蹤的公司提供長達3年的財測,但在設定目標價時卻往往只以6至12個月為準,甚至連18個月後的目標價都很少見,或許這是出於股價波動和投資者需求的緣故。
“短期股價波動是由領域方向、大市趨向、業績表現、企業新聞和分析員評價等因素左右,但我們認為長期股價走勢將更貼近基本面,將由管理層能力、財政強度、估值和盈利展望等因素推動,而這些也是我們在最新報告中的焦點所在。”

選最值得長期投資的公司
聯昌強調,這份最新報告並非要向投資者推介長期內的最佳投資領域,而是會從該行所追蹤的所有18個領域裡,選出一家最值得作長期投資的公司。
另外,在擬定長期策略時,聯昌直言是以樂觀心態看待長期宏觀展望,並對一些領域的展望尤其樂觀,包括預測在未來5年裡,週期性領域如產業、建築和科技領域將處上升週期,抗跌領域如消費品、產業信託和公用事業則預計保持穩定。
聯昌強調長期目標價是在預期一切相安無事的情況下,簡單計算出的可實現價格,但若發生預料之外的負面發展,目標價可能有下行空間。
透過以上選股標準,聯昌選出的最具長期上升潛力大資本股,分別是興業資本(RHBCAP,1066,主板金融組)、賀特佳(HARTA,5168,主板工業產品組)和金務大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑組)。

小資本股3大上升潛力公司
小資本股方面,首3大上升潛力公司則分別是OWG控股(OWG,5260,主板貿服組)、MYEG服務(MYEG,0138,主板貿服組)和GHL系統(GHLSYS,0021,主板科技組)。

●焦點公司
1.)GHL系統
評級:加碼
目標價:1令吉65仙
今年在大馬和菲律賓落實交易付費購買模式後,GHL系統已進入讓人興奮的成長階段,聯昌預期GHL系統將在政府推動電子付費使用的經濟轉型計劃(ETP)措施下受惠。

2.)MYEG服務
評級:加碼
目標價:3令吉92仙
聯昌看好MYEG服務管理層的創意和企業家才能,能夠為其電子政府服務(e-government)增添商業價值,未來幾年的強勁盈利增長料由外勞工作準證更新服務和海關服務稅監督計劃推動。

3.)OWG控股
評級:加碼
目標價:3令吉66仙
聯昌看好OWG控股在雲頂高原和光大的商業模式,預料當20世紀霍士主題樂園和光大大廈啟動和成熟時,未來幾年盈利將取得爆炸性成長。



1)
2016-01-26 17:07


(吉隆坡26日訊)MYEG服務(MYEG,0138,主板貿服組)宣佈獲天地通移動(Celcom Mobile)頒發合約,將成為天地通的推廣、行銷及分銷夥伴,同時服務終端客戶。


分析


聯昌研究對此合約表示正面驚喜,據該行所知,與天地通的夥伴計劃是為外勞在註冊時提供預付SIM卡,此SIM卡可供當局鑑定外勞身份。
雖然合作模式未公佈,但聯昌研究相信若外勞使用該SIM卡通話,MYEG服務將獲得部份收益。
根據統計,外勞平均每月電話費為50令吉,若MYEG從中抽取10%,MYEG的營業額將每月增加500萬令吉。
雖說如此,但並沒規定外勞必須使用該SIM卡通話,只規定外勞必須隨身攜帶。
聯昌研究估計,若在2016財政年內,MYEG能成功註冊100萬名非法外勞,而當中的30%使用該SIM卡,這可為MYEG帶來1千800萬令吉的營業額。
此外,聯昌研究也預計賺幅將高達70%,因為整個計劃最大的花費就只有服務中心。
此外,目前的合法外勞共有250萬名,在今年更新工作准證時也會獲得新的SIM卡。這表示在2017年裡,這SIM卡將會有350萬名用戶,以30%的使用率計算,可提昇2017年營業額6千300萬令吉,同時,2017年淨利可能增加4千400萬令吉。

雖說如此,但聯昌研究在MYEG公佈SIM卡使用率前不調整財測,保持“買入”評級,目標價為2令吉83仙。(星洲日報/財經)
2)
MyEG 分销天地通产品
2016-01-24 11:25

(吉隆坡23日讯)MyEG(MYEG,0138,主板贸服股)受委为亚通(AXIATA,6888,主板贸服股)旗下天地通(Celcom)的直销管道(DirectChannel)伙伴,负责推广、营销和分销产品给终端用户。
根据文告,MyEG今日从天地通手中接过委任书,负责相关活动。
MyEG指出,公司成为天地通伙伴后,可借助对方的网络,来辅助现有服务和未来推出的新服务。
“公司看好这项合作,在未来为盈利和净资产捎来贡献。”http://www.nanyang.com/node/745369?tid=462
3)
MyEG sees higher revenue from FWPR services in FY16
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on January 7, 2016.

[url=]MyEG Services Bhd[/url] ( Valuation: 1.10, Fundamental: 2.30)
(Jan 6, RM2.17)

Maintain add with a target price (TP) of RM2.83: MyEG Services Bhd’s (MyEG) proposed 1:1 bonus issue ex-date was on Tuesday. Its issued share base rises from 1.2 billion shares to 2.4 billion shares. 
Although the bonus issue is fundamentally neutral, investors in the domestic market view the bonus issue positively. A larger issued share base should help boost the stock’s trading liquidity and the lower share price ex-bonus would make the stock more affordable to retail investors.

MyEG’s foreign workers’ permit renewal services (FWPR) will be its largest revenue contributor in financial year 2016 (FY16), according to management. 
In May 2015, the government appointed MyEG to handle nationwide FWPR services and also to develop and maintain a database of foreign workers in the country. There are 2.5 million legal foreign workers and likely around five million illegal workers in the country. 
MyEG charges a RM35 processing fee and another RM65 in commission from selling compulsory foreign workers’ insurance.
In September 2015, the [url=]Immigration Department[/url] also appointed MyEG to undertake the registration of illegal foreign workers in the country. 
Pre-registration has started, and we believe registration should start soon for the illegal workers. We assume MyEG would register one million illegals in FY16, which is conservative, in our view, as we believe there are around five million illegal foreign workers in the country. 
If the company could register two million illegal foreign workers, this could boost FY16/FY17 earnings per share by 18% to 22%.
We maintain our “add” recommendation on the stock and TP is unchanged at RM2.83 ex-bonus. Potential catalysts include a stronger-than-expected revenue from FWPR services and the successful launch of the custom service tax monitoring project in mid-2016. — [url=]CIMB Research[/url], Jan 5
4)2016-01-07 09:21





(吉隆坡6日訊)MYEG服務(MYEG,0138,主板貿服組)的1送1紅股計劃今日除權,分析員看好旗下服務貢獻潛力,維持“加碼”評級不變。

紅股計劃令該公司股本從12億股倍增至24億股,聯昌研究認為影響中和,但本地投資者正面看待此活動,因這有助於提昇該股交易量,較低股價也讓散戶更可負擔。


外勞准證服務主要貢獻
該公司預計,外勞工作准證更新服務(FWPR)將成為2016財政年最大營業額貢獻者。
2015年5月,政府委任該公司負責全國FWPR服務、發展及維持外勞數據庫。
目前大馬有250萬名合法外勞,約400萬至500萬非法外勞。
該公司從中獲取3千500萬令吉處理費,並透過售賣外勞保險賺取6千500萬令吉傭金。
2015年9月,大馬移民局委任該公司負責國內非法外勞註冊行動,預先登記已展開,聯昌研究相信註冊將很快開始。
“保守估計,該公司將在2016財政年註冊100萬名非法外勞,若成功註冊200萬名非法外勞,料有望提振2016/2017財政年每股盈利18至22%。”
有鑑於此,該行維持“加碼”評級及2令吉83仙不變,潛在催化因素包括FWPR服務帶來高於預期營業額及在2016年中旬成功推出關稅服務稅監管(CSTM)計劃。
上個月該股已上漲20%,今日閉市報2令吉17仙,漲5仙。(星洲日報/財經‧報導:郭曉芳)
5)
推2新服务 MYEG明年收入加强

(吉隆坡18日讯)隨著MYEG服务(MYEG,0138,主板贸服股)將于2016年落实两项新服务,预计可进一步加强该公司的收入。

上述两项服务,分別为6P非法外劳漂白计划中的外劳准证更新服务,以及关税服务税监控系统(CSTM),各將于明年1月和下半年推出,相信可为该公司营业额带来正面贡献。

根据一名今天出席MYEG服务股东常年大会和特別大会的小股东向媒体表示,管理层透露服务將陆续启用。

每位外劳准证更新费用为100令吉。现时非法外劳人数介于300万至500万人,因此,预期MYEG服务明年营业额表现料趋好。

该名股东引述MYEG服务董事经理黄天顺在大会上向股东指出,该公司早前获得大马移民局所颁发的非法外劳登记服务合约,预计在明年1月实行。

股东也补充,涵盖视频和饮料业务的首阶段CSTM预计在明年下半年推行。
「MYEG服务將可向皇家关税局收取每店家1000令吉固定收入。」该公司首阶段CSTM原定于2015年第3季落实,惟被延展。若一切顺利,MYEG服务將会推出第2阶段CSTM,目標为大型零售领域。
股东也称,该公司管理层透露亦会在明年落实道路安全侦查器(Road Safety Diagnostic Kit)。但,基于政府並未强制性地要求所有罗里及巴士业者安装有关侦查器,所以无法预测该项目对公司带来的潜在盈利贡献。
另一方面,MYEG服务在今日的特大获得股东通过派送红股的议案。该公司將以1送1比例,派送12亿零210万股红股(包括433万库存股)予股东,惟除权日待定。
该项计划將把缴足资本从12亿零210万股或1亿2021万令吉,提高至24亿零420万股或2亿4042万令吉。
MYEG服务股价年初至今「跑贏大市」,涨幅为85.3%,优于富时综指年初至今的6.66%跌幅。该股今天闭市报3.91令吉,全天起5仙或1.3%。http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/business/cj2myeg
6)

MER reiterates "Outperform" on My E.G.


Date: 01/12/2015

Source : MACQUARIE GROUP
Stock : MYEG     Price Target : 3.85     |     Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 2.21     |     Upside/Downside :  +1.64 (74.21%)



My E.G has recently released its results for financial year ending 2016, posting stronger annual and quarter profit after tax and minority interest (PATAMI) which increased by 24% and 135% respectively.

Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research report on Monday morning, making sense of My E.G’s financial results while reiterating its Outperform rating for the stock with a 12-month target price of RM3.85. Read excerpts from the report titled “Still growing at a robust pace” below…

Event
  • My E.G. is starting off FY16 with a strong set of results; its PATAMI (Profit after Tax and Minority Interests) of RM28.5mn is up 24% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 135% year-on-year (y-o-y), as transaction volume for the renewal of foreign worker permits continues to pick up. As MER is expecting the government to announce the amnesty program soon, the strong earnings growth will continue into coming quarters.

Impact
  • Foreign Workers’ Permit (FWP) renewal and related services revenue is now 50% of the group revenue. My E.G. is now processing close to 130k transactions a month, an increase from 100k in the 4QFY15, but still below the theoretical rate of 180k transaction per month rate (Based on 2.2mn workers). As the number of transactions moves closer to the 180k per month, MER is expecting the earnings growth to continue.

  • Amnesty will be the catalyst and will be announced soon. MER is expecting the amnesty program to be announced by the government soon, as the contract is only valid until 4 March 2016, and it will take the consortium (including My E.G.) at least 2-3 months to register the illegals. MER believes that My E.G. can record close to RM100mn in revenue from the program, which constitutes 25% of MER’s full-year revenue forecast.

  • Still waiting to hear good news on GST EMS. There is still no update from the government on the implementation date of the goods and services tax’s Electronic Monitoring System (GST EMS) program. Even if the government were to delay the implementation date further (current target start date is Apr’16), the impact to MER’s forecast would be relatively minimal, as MER is only expecting it to contribute 5% of FY17E revenue.

Earnings and target price revision
  • No change.

Price catalyst
  • 12-month price target: RM3.85 based on a discounted cash flow methodology.
  • Catalyst: Announcement of the amnesty program by the government.

Action and recommendation
  • Reiterate Outperform recommendation as MER believes the stock valuation is not rich due to the strong growth rate, as price earnings ratio (PER) will fall from 62x FY15 to 17x in FY17E.

  • Macquarie Quant views on the stock is favourable too, ranking it 29th out of 647 stocks in Software & Services, with the strongest style exposure being Profitability.

Source: Macquarie Research - 1 Dec 2015




2016年1月25日星期一

政府規定改密室飼養‧森120養雞場倒閉--


 2016-01-25 11:01


(彭亨.直涼24日訊)大馬禽畜業聯合總會長黃俊儀指出,
森州芙蓉近期有120間養雞場因為地方政府規定業者必須把養雞場改成密室飼養而關閉。
“接下來,養雞業要面對的挑戰還有很多,如果業者不團結一致,相信這條路很難走下去。”
他認為,面對行業的未來挑戰與發展趨勢,農友必須作出相應改變,不能固步自封。
成本高漲致血本無歸
黃俊儀是昨晚出席百樂縣肉雞農公會舉辦的籌募慈善基金新春晚宴上,致詞時這麼表示。
提及近年的養雞飼料和小雞成本高漲的問題,他指出,養雞業若有閃失,
隨時面對血本無歸的悲劇。他希望百樂縣肉雞農公會加入總會,
在這個大家庭一起合作,提升養雞知識和技巧,爭取行業的利益。
--难怪近曰layhong(pe=15),cab(pe=19) 会以那么高的pe 成交,小型农埸关闭,
市場份额将由大型农場侵佔. 当市埸重新评估时,Teoseng就飞天了. 
Teoseng 保守价rm1.70,成長价rm2.00

2016年1月21日星期四

7252 TEOSENG RM1.32 BUY IN--

--再穷,鸡蛋总是不会少,
日常所需品不怕经济低迷,鸡蛋为人类主要食品,业务抗跌性强,永远不会有销售问题.持有也有信心。
目前3个季度eps达12.7 sen,估计Q4 EPS=4.3SEN,
则2015 eps=17 sen,pe=10,stock price=rm1.70

于30-09-2015公司现金有3676万,债务为9055万.业务扩展中.
于30-04-2015 的30大股东已持有76.96%(230891张),市场流通量只有69109张,总股数为300000張.
TEOSENG 绝对是投资者的首选股,公司的潜在价值好,成长佳,将会是一只黑马股。
看看其他同行----a)LAYHONG 9385 ,RM8.18 ,PE=22.3 的高pe成交下,
 b)ql 7084 rm4.54 ,pe=28.5 
c)cab 7174 rm1.69 ,pe=15.8, 
d)ltkm 7085 rm1.50 ,pe=5 ,
e)huatlai 7141 rm4.97 pe=7.3
 f)pwf 7134 rm1.28 pe=11.2
g))teoseng 7252 rm1.32 ,pe=7.23 (是不是值得进入,haha)
---还有年关到了,对鸡旦大须求呀,
A)layhong 每股5 元被曰本公司收购部分股权,eps=36.6sen ,pe=13 ,
 因此teoseng eps=17sen,pe=13,stock price=rm2.21 ,
http://www.nanyang.com/node/745208?tid=462
B)cab 每股2.07 元被印尼公司認购部分股权,
eps=10.6sen ,pe=19.5 , 因此teoseng 的eps=17sen,pe=19.5
stock price=rm3.31 

http://www.nanyang.com/node/744602?tid=462
,参考一下

1)


雞蛋跌價‧潮成賺益難有起色

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Tue, 1 Dec 2015, 11:54 AM 


2015-12-01 11:42
  •  
(吉隆坡30日訊)潮成資本(TEOSENG,7252,主板消費品組)第三季業績成長不如預期,分析員相信雞蛋價格走跌將抵銷能源成本減少利多,未來賺益料難有重大起色。

雞蛋價格下跌影響潮成資本9個月淨利表現低於預期,因此大馬研究調低其2015至2017年盈利預測19至24%,以反映產品賺益減少現況。

展望未來,大馬研究認為,2016年竣工的生物發電廠帶來的能源成本節省將被雞蛋價格走低抵銷,賺益不會有太大改善。
不過,大馬研究指出,該公司估值依然十分吸引,現10倍本益比較同儕平均的14倍低32%,因此維持其“買進”評級,但目標價下調至2令吉45仙。
股價:1令吉53仙
總股本:3億零1千225股
市值:4億零500萬1千654令吉
30天日均成交量:176萬股
最新季度營業額:1億零247萬2千令吉
最新季度盈虧:淨利1千197萬2千令吉
每股淨資產:67仙
本益比:
週息率:3.23%
大股東:龍合控股(51.12%)(星洲日報/財經)

2)

Teo Seng Capital - Key takeaways from corporate luncheon BUY

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Thu, 19 Nov 2015, 11:27 AM 

- We reiterate BUY on Teo Seng Capital (TSC) with an unchanged fair value of RM2.45/share. We continue to peg our valuation to a fully-diluted FY16F PE of 13x.
- We hosted a corporate luncheon with key personnel from TSC and institutional funds yesterday, and came away assured of the group’s earnings prospects and position as a leading egg producer. We continue to like TSC for its undemanding valuations, robust earnings growth (3-year CAGR: +15%) and expanding dividend payout (historically 25%, policy: 20%-50%).
- Key takeaways from the luncheon:
(1) Management clarified that its flattish YoY PBT for 9MFY15 and corresponding 1.5ppt margin contraction was primarily due to low egg prices (particularly in 2Q and a weaker-than-expected rebound in 3Q). We understand that a 1 sen decline in egg prices results in a RM1mil/month decline in the group’s net profit. Looking ahead, management expects prices to rise in 4QFY15 in tandem with year-end festivities, and to average at 30 sen/egg for FY15F and 31 sen/egg for FY16F.
(2) The group’s expansion plans remain on track. Although it only added one new farm in FY15F (in Nov; target was 2), it still met its production capacity of 3.3mil eggs per day as it had added new ‘houses’ to its existing farms instead of building a new farm. We understand that land for its FY16F’s expansion (1 farm, capacity +13%) has been secured.
(3) Demand from Singapore, to which it exports 30% of its egg production, remains robust. While the group can still gain from the stronger SGD vs RM, we note that the price differential between the two markets has narrowed to 2 sen/egg from 5 sen/egg just two months ago.
(4) Feedstock prices are expected to remain low and stable moving forward. In 9MFY15, corn and soybean prices were lower by 20% and 17% YoY, respectively. However, after forex adjustments, they were only lower by 1.2% and 1.5%. The group has bought forward its raw materials up to 1QFY16.
(5) TSC’s superior margins are expected to remain stable. Any price weakness may be offset by energy cost savings from its biogas plant-ups, use of natural gas for egg tray production, and margin enhancements from external sales of paper egg trays (GP margin of 20+%). It foresees no impact from the minimum wage hike next year as most of its workers are paid above that level (at ~RM1,400).
- We leave our FY15F-FY17F earnings estimates unchanged for now in view of our recent downward revision (-19% to -24%) post the release of its 9MFY15 results.
- TSC’s present valuations are undemanding. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted FY16F PE of only 8x. This is a 47% discount to the average PE of 15x for the consumer companies under our coverage.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 19 Nov 2015

3)

Teo Seng Capital - 9MFY15 weighed down by soft prices BUY

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 18 Nov 2015, 09:51 AM

- We reaffirm BUY on Teo Seng Capital (TSC) but with a lower fair value of RM2.45/share post its weaker-thanexpected 3QFY15 results. Our fair value is based on an unchanged fully-diluted PE of 13x over rolled-forward FY16F earnings.
- TSC’s 9MFY15 results came in below expectations. The group reported a 3QFY15 net profit of RM12mil (QoQ: +65%; YoY: +11%) to bring its 9MFY15 earnings to RM37mil (YoY: +20%). A single-tier interim dividend of 2.5 sen/share was declared.
- In light of this, we have revised downwards our FY15FFY17F earnings forecasts by 19%-24% to reflect its softer margins (-2ppts). Nonetheless, we note that its margins are still superior to that of its peers (EBITDA margin of 19% vs. peers’ average of 15%).
- The negative variance vis-à-vis our forecast can be primarily attributed to lower-than-expected average egg prices for the cumulative nine months (29.5 sen/egg vs our projected 32 sen/egg). Volumes were firm, with the quantity of eggs sold being 11% higher YoY thanks to the addition of its new farm (+400,000 eggs per day) in November last year.
- On a sequential basis, TSC’s earnings had improved as anticipated. Note that a better comparison for its QoQ performance would be its profit before tax (+37%) in view of its abnormally low tax rate (1%) in 3QFY15. We understand that this was due to the availability of a oneoff tax incentive (~RM3.5mil) from its increased exports to Singapore.
- The rebound in TSC’s earnings was in tandem with the recovery of egg prices over the quarter, i.e. from an average of 26 sen/egg in 2QFY15 to 29 sen/egg in 3QFY15 (peak was 34 sen/egg) as well as new capacity from the addition of new houses to its existing farms in July.
- Feed prices have also been on a downward trend. TSC’s corn and soybean input prices were still lower by 12% and 7% QoQ, respectively, after adjusting for the currency impact.
- Looking ahead, we do not expect TSC’s margins to contract further as any price weakness may be offset by energy cost savings from its usage of natural gas (vs. LPG previously) for its egg tray production and upcoming biogas plant-ups (early FY16).
- TSC’s valuations remain compelling. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted forward PE of only 10x. This is a 32% discount to the average PE of 14x for the consumer companies under our coverage. Since the order-driven sell-down in August, TSC’s share price has been on an upward trend, rising 43%.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 17 Nov 2015
4)
· TEOSENG (Stopped Out @ RM1.58). We previously recommended a ‘Trading Buy’ call on TEOSENG when the share price appeared to set to ride on the recent hype on the rising egg prices to complete its ‘Rounding Bottom’ chart pattern. However, the share price failed to play out according to our expectations as it broke down from our stop-loss level of RM1.58 to form a ‘Cup and Handle’ chart pattern. On top of that, the price weakness could possibly be prolonged from here, underpinned by the neutralization process of both RSI and Stochastic from their respective overbought territory. Hence, we are stopping out on this counter but will re-look when the share price forms a more compelling technical picture.


5)

Teo Seng Capital - Egg prices stage a rebound BUY

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015, 10:03 AM

- We maintain BUY on Teo Seng Capital (TSC) with an unchanged fair value of RM2.70/share. This is based on an unchanged fully-diluted PE of 13x FY15F EPS.
- From our recent discussions with management, we learnt that egg prices have gradually rebounded from 28 sen/egg in 2QFY15 to 34 sen/egg over 3QFY15. Note that the latter was the average egg price in 4QFY14 and 1QFY15 and is the highest historically.
- The upward trend in egg prices is positive for TSC. Although we had earlier anticipated prices to tick up in tandem with increased domestic demand during the festive periods (eg. Hari Raya), we did not expect the quantum to be as large. The supply backlog has also eased, thanks to higher exports to Hong Kong.
- Egg prices had declined by 24% QoQ back in 2QFY15 due to seasonally low demand (i.e. absence of festivities and the fasting month in June/July) and to a smaller extent, the impact of GST on overall consumer sentiment.
- Interestingly, we also understand that the price of its egg exports to Singapore (~30% of total production) is presently as high as 38 sen/egg. This is unusual given that the price differential between the domestic and Singapore market is typically between 1-2 sen/egg. The wider spread is mainly attributable to the current weakness of the RM vis-à-vis the SGD (YTD: -31%).
- We make no changes to our FY15F-FY17F earnings estimates unchanged for now. The rebound in egg prices alongside the timely addition of two new farms in July and November (+25% capacity from 3.1mil eggs per day) bode well for TSC’s 2HFY15 earnings.
- Post its recent order-driven sell-down, TSC’s share price has been on an upward trend, rising 31% in the past month. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted forward PE of only 7x. This is a steep 53% discount to the average PE of 15x for the consumer companies under our coverage.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 30 Sep 2015

6)

Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: TEOSENG (28/09/2015)

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Mon, 28 Sep 2015, 10:02 AM











This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 23, 2015.
TEO Seng (Fundamental: 1.5/3, Valuation: 1.9/3) is predominantly involved in layer farming — rearing chickens to produce eggs. With current production of 3 million eggs per day, it is one of the largest egg producer in the country. The company has its own in-house feed mill and also manufactures animal health products. 
We like Teo Seng as a well-managed company, with higher than industry average profit margin (trailing 12-month net margin of 13.1%) and lower than average gearing of 29.7%. It is also fairly inexpensive, trading at trailing 12-month P/E and EV/EBITDA of 7.96 and 5.48 times, respectively. 
Whilst demand for eggs is fairly resilient — and should grow steadily — earnings are affected by fluctuating egg prices and costs for feed stock, mainly corn and soybean meal, which are denominated in US dollar. 
Teo Seng’s share price rallied in 1Q2015, buoyed by higher egg prices and lower feed costs. But its shares then slumped to the current RM1.42, down 35.75% from a peak of RM2.21. This follows weak 2Q2015 earnings results where a sharp fall in egg prices — Grade “A” dropped from 37 cents to 29 cents — saw earnings drop 58.44% q-q to RM7.3 million.
Positively, egg prices are on the rebound and we expect better performance in 2H2015. This could be the catalyst for a fresh rally. Teo Seng has hedged about one year’s supply of animal feed in 2Q2015; thus, impact from recent weakening of ringgit will be minimal. It also exports about 27.75% of the revenue to Singapore and should benefit from the stronger Singapore dollar.
The company is expanding capacity, which should underpin longer-term growth. Dividends, however, may be cut back this year, in view of the higher capex. Teo Seng has a dividend policy to pay out 20-50% of annual net profits. We estimate dividends at roughly 5 sen per share — after taking into account the 1-for-2 bonus issue in January. That will earn shareholders a fairly decent yield of 3.52%.
Teo Seng Capital Bhd
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/insider-asia%E2%80%99s-stock-day-teo-seng-capital-bhd


Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: TEOSENG (28/09/2015)

7)

雞蛋產量將揚25%‧潮成前景看俏

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015, 05:43 PM

2015-07-24 17:28
  •  
(吉隆坡22日訊)潮成資本(TEOSENG,7252,主板消費品組)2座新農場下半年投運後,雞蛋產量料增25%,加上能源成本降低的利好,分析員看好該公司前景。

今年增2新農場
大馬研究近日會晤該公司管理層後表示,該公司將在7月及11月增設2座新農場,屆時雞蛋產量可提高25%。目前,每年的產量為310萬粒。
管理層也表示,生產蛋托(egg tray)的能源已在5月份從石油天然氣(LPG)轉換成天然氣,預期每年可節省150萬令吉的能源成本。
此外,管理層指出,目前建造中5座生物氣體工廠進展滿意,首座工廠可在今年完工,預期每年可節省200萬令吉的電費。
管理層透露,基於季節性及消費稅的影響,導致雞蛋價格從每粒34仙高峰下滑24%,目前蛋價仍高於24仙的平均收支平衡價格。
分析員預期第二季淨利將放緩,但有信心在下半年在節慶日子需求及兩座新農場啟用的帶動下,該公司淨利將回彈。
分析員說,該公司早前趁大豆及玉米價格放緩時,已經將遠期購買合約從3個月延長至6個月(至2015年12月),因此即使保守假設美元匯率為3令吉70仙,其飼料成本仍比目前現貨價低11%至21%。
分析員預期該公司營運盈利(EBITDA)賺幅可維持在21%。
大馬研究表示,該公司產品需求每年取得3%至5%穩定的成長、具良好管理層、本益比低及3年23%的複合成長率(CAGR),加上提高派息率,維持該公司“買進”評級及2令吉70仙的目標價不變。(星洲日報/財經‧報導:謝汪潮)
8)
 每股5元场外购13.8% NH Foods 增持丽鸿至22.88%
Published by 南洋网 at 2016-01-23 12:32:00

(吉隆坡22日讯)丽鸿(LAYHONG,9385,主板消费产品股)今日证实,大股东日本NHFoods周四在场外,以每股5令吉收购800万股或13.8%股权。

该售价相等于丽鸿周四闭市价8令吉的折价37.5%。

在收购该批股权之后,NH Foods如今的持股率将从原本的9.08%,提高至22.88%。

由此,NH Foods不但可在公司拥有高度影响力,还能根据持股比例,把投资所得纳入账目上。

早前《星报》引述消息透露,尽管NHFoods刚在近期崛起为大股东,但丽鸿依然很受国际业者青睐,持续收到缔结合作的献议。

国际业者锁定小家禽商

这些国际食品业者正锁定小型,但发展良好的家禽公司,来展开合作,从而能够更快速地扩展业务。

“从科技来看,丽鸿和潮成集团(TEOSENG,7252,主板消费产品股)是国外企业看好的目标,其中,丽鸿不仅拥有强劲的NutriPlus品牌,还能出口鸡蛋到新加坡,并具备鸡蛋相关专才。”

消息称,NutriPlus是我国顶尖的品牌之一,因此,NH Foods或其他潜在伙伴可借助该品牌,出口到我国和新加坡市场。

此外,另一家家禽公司CAB机构(CAB,7174,主板消费产品股),共有878万股或5.83%股权,于周二(19日)在场外易手,售价为每股1.68令吉。

消息相信,这批股权的买家,就是印尼三林集团(Salim Group)旗下KMP投资公司。


9)
10)
Teoseng: A Real Price Concern
There is little doubt that Teoseng is a successfully-run poultry company.

Its revenue and especially net profit, grew by leaps and bounds in the last 2 years.

Its FY14 ROE breaches 30.

It gives great dividends and bonus issue.

It has a 5-year plan to increase its chicken egg production capacity by 60% from 3.2 mil/day to 5.1 mil/day.

It plans to increase its export to Singapore from 30% to 40%.

Its first of five biogas plant to save cost is on track to be completed this year.

It aims to be the largest egg producer in Malaysia in the future.

Despite all these positive notes, Teoseng's share price has been trending down since reaching a height at RM2.20 in end of Mac15 after bonus issue. 

Currently it is trading at slightly above RM1.50 level, and failed to follow the spectacular rebound in KLCI in the past 3 days.

If we annualize FY15Q1's PATAMI of RM17.5mil, its shares are traded at projected PE of only 6.4x, and this company is still in expansion mode.

Why?

Is poultry theme play over?



       Teoseng share price in 2015


How did Teoseng achieve such an impressive financial result lately? Its net profit jumps 180% in just 2 years.

Though Teoseng has several businesses such as poultry farming (layer), trading of animal health products, manufacturing of paper egg trays & poultry feeds, its poultry farming contributes 90% of its bottom line in FY14.

So, the vast improvement in its earning should be related to its poultry farming segment.

I'm not sure how much has Teoseng expanded its layer farms between 2012-2014. Increased egg production capacity will certainly contribute directly to its revenue and profit.

I feel that there should be some expansion but perhaps not that much.

So, the improvement in financial performance in the last 2 years should be largely due to lower material cost and higher egg selling price.

Feeds (corn/soybean) make up about 70% of layer farming's cost. From 2012 to 2014, corn price fell by more than 50%. Surely low feeds price has raised Teoseng bottomline significantly.




Though corn & soybean price rebound in June15, they are expected to stay low due to increased harvest in North & South America.







Has recent sharp rebound in corn & soybean price affected investors' sentiment in Teoseng? I don't know.

Another potential culprit might be chicken egg price.

Teoseng currently produces about 3.2 million eggs per day. If egg price increases by 1sen, its revenue will potentially increase by RM32,000 a day, or RM2.88mil in a quarter.

If other cost & parameters remain the same, this extra RM2.88mil a quarter will go towards its PBT.

In other words, if egg price increases by 1sen, Teoseng can potentially earn RM2.88mil more in its pre-tax profit.

But if egg price drops 1sen, then Teoseng may potentially earn RM2.88mil less.

If egg price drop by 10sen, does it mean that Teoseng's profit will potentially drop RM28.8mil in a quarter which will throw it into loss???

Of course things are not that straight forward. Egg price fluctuates every few days and there are many other reasons that can affect its profit.

To check our country's egg price, I found a website that records Malaysia's historical chicken egg price, by Department of Veterinary Services.

If you study the price trend, there seems to be a rather significant drop in egg price since Mac15.



       Malaysia Chicken Egg Price in 2015


The line chart below shows monthly Grade A chicken egg price since year 2013. Since there are a few data in each month, I will pick the price closest to middle of the month to represent that month.



       Grade A Egg Price Chart 2013-2015


Grade A chicken egg price hit new high at 39sen in Nov14 and then 41sen in Dec14 and Jan15 before returning to 38-39sen in Feb/Mac15.

This coincides with significant jump in revenue and profit for Teoseng in FY14Q4 and FY15Q1.




However, in second quarter of 2015, grade A chicken egg price falls to 32-35 level. In average it is about 5sen lower than first quarter of 2015.

How do you think it will affect Teoseng's FY15Q2 earning?





Egg price is like CPO price, which will have direct impact on a company's top & bottom lines compared to other commodities used as raw materials.

It's a norm that egg price will fluctuate. Nevertheless, due to inflation, it is expected that egg price will trend upwards with time.

Many years ago, grade A eggs may be sold at 10-20sen, now it's 30-40sen, in the near future it might be 40-50sen.

I believe that current selling pressure on Teoseng's shares is mainly because of declining egg price, and to a certain extent, fear of bottoming out of feed price.

As Q2 is already over, I suspect that Teoseng's FY15Q2 result will not be as good as its latest 2 quarters.

If egg price continue to stay at Q2 2015 level for the rest of the year, then all layer farming operators should see poorer FY15 compared to FY14.

Is this part of the reason Teoseng put its Sungai Linggui expansion plan on hold?

As I have mentioned earlier, I think Teoseng is still a well-managed company who has no control over commodity price. 

With its ambitious expansion plan, shareholders should get the reward in long term.

Who knows grade A egg price will suddenly go above 40sen in second half of 2015?

Posted by Bursa Dummy 17 comments: 
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Labels: Teoseng
Saturday, 10 January 2015
Poultry Farming & Listed Companies In Malaysia
After struggling in year 2012, many poultry farming companies finally caught investors' eyes by producing much better earnings since the start of year 2014.

As a result, most of their share prices have gone up about 50% and some more than 100% in just one year time, outperforming the unfortunate KLCI by several streets.

Is it too late to join the poultry party now? Are those poultry farming companies still undervalued after the jump in share price?





I have found 9 listed companies involved in poultry farming and related business. I'll just do a simple comparison among them.

Not every company runs exactly the same business. Some rear chicken only for its meat (broiler), some only for its eggs (layer), some slaughter the chicken, some process the meat to nuggets etc (food).

Some companies also venture into related businesses such as marine food, chicken feeds, making fertilizer from chicken manure, manufacturing egg trays and trading animal health products.

Below are main business for the 9 listed companies

Company        Business
QL        Broiler, Layer, Feeds, Marine, Palm Oil
Huat Lai        Broiler, Layer, Feeds, Fertilizer, Trays
CAB        Broiler, Food, Marine, Retail
Lay Hong        Broiler, Layer, Food, Supermarket
Farmbes        Broiler, Layer, Food, Property
PW        Broiler, Layer, Feeds, Cattle, Food
Teo Seng        Layer, Feeds, Trays, Animal food & health products
LTKM        Layer, Sand mining, Property
TPC        Layer


Looking into their historical financial results, almost all except QL and may be Teoseng, have rather "choppy" performance in which net profit swing up & down despite consistently higher revenue every year.

Due to company expansion and inflation, we would expect revenue to go up consistently. So the fluctuating net profit must be due to fluctuating cost.

For pure broiler and/or layer farming, chicken feeds make up 70-75% of its cost of sales. So market price of corn and soybean which are used as chicken feeds will have a big impact on the company's performance.

Other than increase in poultry & eggs selling price, significant reduction in corn and soybean price since 2013 has largely improved the earnings of poultry farming operators.

Charts below show 10-year historical corn & soybean price.







As we can see from the charts above, corn & soybean price have dropped about 50% from their peak in 2012, mainly due to overproduction in the US.

From 2010, corn price rose steeply for almost 100% in less than a year, while soybean price also rose about 50% in the same period. Both stayed at high level throughout 2011-2012.

This may explain why most poultry farming companies suffered loss (except QL, Teo Seng & PW) or lower profit (Teoseng & PW) in calendar year 2012.

Now the corn & soybean price have suddenly dropped to about 8-year low. Do you think it will continue to drop to its 10-year low, or rebound, or move sideways in 2015?

From history, it can rise as fast as it falls.

Nevertheless, I think no one can be sure but surely it will have a great impact on poultry farmers' earning.





Among those 9 poultry-related companies, which one is the best to invest in?

I will use annualized figures to calculate the EPS to better reflect each company's latest performance, as I predict most of them will release even better results in the final quarter of CY2014 due to even lower feed price in the 2nd half of 2014.

So, this analysis which uses annualized earnings (except CAB), will not be very accurate.

Stock        FY End        Revenue        PATAMI        PATAMI %        ROE        CR        D/E
QL        Mac        2620        176.4        6.7        13.6        1.76        0.44
Huat Lai        Dec        1222        44.6        3.6        20.5        0.58        2.44
CAB        Sep        672        11.2        1.7        6.5        0.73        0.61
Lay Hong        Mac        646        15.7        2.4        12.3        0.83        1.38
Farmbes        Dec        432        2.7        0.6        2.8        1.15        2.74
Teo Seng        Dec        363        40.9        11.3        27.2        1.12        0.26
PW        Dec        287        14.1        4.9        6.5        0.88        0.40
LTKM        Mac        187        29.7        15.9        16.9        2.40        NC
TPC        Dec        79        3.8        4.8        20.1        0.41        2.25
NC = net cash
CR = current ratio


QL is the largest among all in term of market cap, revenue and net profit, with its diversification in businesses and also geographical location. 

QL has been holding a significant stake in Lay Hong since 2010. It currently owns 38.3% of Lay Hong and recently failed in a rather hostile takeover bid to acquire Lay Hong.

Teo Seng is a subsidiary of Leong Hup which was recently taken private and delisted in 2012. Leong Hup is the country's largest integrated poultry operator.

TPC which is currently a PN17 company, is a 52.91% subsidiary of Huat Lai since 2012.

Meanwhile, Farmbes recently appears as a subject of a RM380mil reverse takeover by Chinese-owned SHH (M) Holding Sdn Bhd.

US-owned Cargill Malaysia is reported to be keen on a controlling stake in CAB as well.

It seems like merger & acquisition activities are robust within the poultry industry.





Other than CAB, PW & Farmbes, all other companies' ROE are good at above 10%, especially Teo Seng, Huat Lai & TPC which are above 20%, thanks to recent lower feeds price.

It's noteworthy that Teo Seng and LTKM's net profit margin stand out from the rest at more than 10%.

In term of balance sheet, it looks like poultry farming is a capital intensive business as many companies are heavily debt-ridden.

Huat Lai, Farmbes & TPC all have net debt to equity ratio of above 2x while Lay Hong is at 1.38. Only LTKM manage to keep a net cash position with impressive current ratio.

From the table above, generally the more "investable" ones to me are QL, Teo Seng & LTKM. CAB & PW are not that attractive due to thin margin and low ROE, besides higher borrowings.


Stock        Price        #EPS        PE        NAS        PB        DIV        DY%
QL        3.26        14.1        23.1        1.04        3.1        3.5        1.1
Huat Lai        2.85        51.6        5.5        2.52        1.1        4        1.4
CAB        1.01        8.5        11.9        1.16        0.9        0        0
Lay Hong        3.42        31.0        11.0        2.55        1.3        5        1.5
Farmbes        0.60        4.4        13.6        1.55        0.4        0        0
Teo Seng        1.85        20.4        9.1        0.75        2.5        *10        5.4
PW        1.52        23.1        6.6        3.71        0.4        5        3.3
LTKM        4.09        68.4        6.0        4.05        1.0        18        4.4
TPC        0.385        4.8        8.0        0.24        1.6        0        0* may have more dividends
# base on annualized earnings


QL is no doubt a great company but its PE ratio and PB ratio are too high now.

Though Huat Lai has lowest PE, relatively low PB ratio and high ROE of 20.5, it also has scary amount of debts and very low current ratio.

Apart from Huat Lai, LTKM & PW have the lowest PE at 6.0x & 6.6x respectively, while both Farmbes & PW have the lowest PB at 0.4x. 

Teo Seng's dividend is the most attractive, followed by LTKM and PW. It is a little surprise to me that Huat Lai still pay dividend.





So it is not difficult to come to a conclusion that Teo Seng & LTKM are the two companies that suit my investment style.

Coincidentally, both are only in layer farming without broiler farming. Both export their eggs to Singapore as well.

Though Teo Seng is valued higher compared to LTKM now, LTKM seems too conservative in expanding its poultry business compared to Teo Seng.

LTKM who already built 26 units of terrace houses in Banting since 2011 even plans to go bigger into property development with its 20-acre land in Jenjarom!

Anyway, I think both are still not bad to invest in, depending on your taste & timing. 

For me, I don't know much about their future expansion plan but it seems like organic growth will be slow.

Besides Teo Seng & LTKM, PW is also worth a second look.

It just made its first venture into table eggs production since 2013 with its new layer farm at Pendang, Kedah.

From its FY13 annual report, PW mentioned that it was developing the 2nd phase of its layer farm which was expected to be completed by early 2015. This will double its daily capacity from 420,000 to 850,000 eggs.

Thus, even with lowish ROE at 6.5%, PW can be a dark horse with very low projected PE & PB ratio, along with satisfactory dividend yield.

Anyway, its tight balance sheet & cash flow remain a risk.





We can assume confidently that chicken & eggs price will only rise in the future. However, cost of energy, raw material and man power will rise as well.

I think corn and soybean price are particularly important to poultry industry, as it can fluctuate so much as shown earlier.

If corn & soybean price are to rebound furiously just like it happened in 2010, those companies' financial results will not be that pretty I guess.

Furthermore, if the raw materials for chicken feeds are imported in USD, recent weakening of RM against USD might add more pressure if corn & soybean price also go up later.

Anyway, I think investors can still anticipate good financial results from poultry operators for year 2015 at least.

As usual, investors need to study those companies in more detail. Invest at own risk.