2015年9月1日星期二

5099 Airasia 亚洲航空 rm0.90 買进--

Airasia 5099 若是全年eps=28 sen ,只取pe =5 ,股价=rm 1.40 ,目前兩季eps 达到14 sen ,
相信达标有很大机率,参考,进出自负!
1)特别经济委员会重振信心 亚航亚航X股价回弹
27/08/201519:20
(吉隆坡27日讯)经过一轮下跌,在首相拿督斯里纳吉宣布设立特别经济委员会(SEC),亚洲航空有限公司(AIRASIA,5099,贸易服务组)与亚洲航空X有限公司(AAX,5238,贸易服务组)今日终于反弹。

闭市时,亚洲航空报88.5仙,上扬10.5仙或13.46%,成交量达1亿7717万7800股,是最热门股。市值达23亿7900万令吉。

该股一度涨12仙至90仙。

亚洲航空X则上扬1仙或6.67%,至16仙,成交量为1916万8600股,市值为6亿6370万令吉。


资深抽佣经纪黄峋理表示,投资者正面看待为了应对货币与经济事务而设立的特别经济委员会。

“投资者相信这个由资深经济学家组成的团队,将祭出良策。另外还有两名来自国库控股的成员。”

他向theedgemarkets.com说:“大家看好这个委员会,这份信心也反映在今天的股市。亚洲航空和子公司的股票,被视为跟政府的举措有莫大关联。”

这个被视为打救经济、阵容强劲的团队,由首相署部长拿督斯里阿都瓦希领导,成员包括联昌国际集团(CIMB,1023)主席拿督斯里纳西尔、国库控股副主席兼前第二财长丹斯里诺莫哈末、国库控股董事经理丹斯里阿兹曼莫达、大马银行协会主席兼马来亚银行(MAYBANK,1155)总执行长的拿督阿都法立、中国银行业监督管理委员会首席顾问丹斯里沈联涛。

加入他们的还有 Symphony Life Bhd ( Financial Dashboard) 执行主席丹斯里莫哈末阿兹曼、大马评估机构(RAM)总执行长拿督斯里哥文丹、马来西亚国立大学(UKM)校长拿督末阿兹兰,以及大马厂商联合会(FMM)主席拿督斯里苏子文。纳吉说,几名来自财政部、国家银行、国际贸易与工业部、证券监督委员会(SC)和首相办公室的人员也会纳入该委员会阵容。http://www.kwongwah.com.my/?p=6462
2)




AirAsia share price falls to low of 78 sen

27/08/2015

PETALING JAYA: AirAsia Bhd’s share price fell to a fresh low of 78 sen yesterday, down nine sen on active trade and concerns regarding its Indonesian affiliate.
Year-to-date, the airline’s share price has dropped more than 70%.
For the second quarter ended June 30, 2015, the airline’s Indonesian affiliate, Indonesia AirAsia, recorded a revenue of 1,266.83 billion rupiah, down 16% year-on-year, which was in line with the 12% decrease in capacity and 18% drop in the number of passengers carried.
AirAsia, which has borrowings in US dollars for its fleet of aircraft, registered a profit attributable to shareholders of RM243mil in the second quarter, down 33.8% from a year ago.
This was achieved on a marginally higher revenue of 1% to RM1.32bil, backed by a 7% passenger growth to 5.95 million with 80% load factor.
3)

AirAsia - 2Q15 Below Expectation

Date: 21/08/2015 

Source : HLG
Stock : AIRASIA     Price Target : 1.98     |     Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 0.90     |     Upside/Downside :  +1.08 (120.00%)



Results

  • Below Expectation – Reported 2Q15 core earnings at RM112.4m and 1H15 at RM240.26m, 
  • achieving 37.1% of HLIB’s FY15 forecast and 37.24% of consensus.

Deviations

  • Lower than expected yield and higher than expected staff cost, user charges and other expenses.

Dividends

  • None.

Highlights

  • Revenue improved slightly in 2Q15 to RM1.32bn (+2% QoQ: +1 YoY) owing to higher ticket
  •  sales and higher leasing income since RM depreciated against US$. However, Fares/RPK 
  • decreased by 10% YoY due to the removal of surcharge.
  • Management is upbeat on yield recovery in the 2H15, given MAS officially cut several routes 
  • in August (circa 20% of total capacity in Malaysia) which in turn will improved AirAsia ticket yield.
  • AAB will leverage on the China market for the 2H15 (e.g. Langkawi – Guang Zhou,
  •  Langkawi – Hong Kong) due to improvement in travelling sentiment of China market 
  • and the high spending propensity of Chinese passengers.
  • Operating cost decrease YoY due to the slump in jet fuel but flattish QoQ due to an 
  • increase of staff cost (late bonus).
  • On Indo AirAsia (IAA) negative equity issue, AAB are advised to issue non-voting Redeemable
  •  and Convertible Preference Shares (RCPS) to address the negative equity issue which will be
  •  done through converting AAB receivables from IAA amounting to US$250m (RM1bn).
  •  Expected AAB to recognize share of unrecognized losses portion of RM474.2m. IAA Injection
  •  of capital by potential investors is still ongoing, with indicative interest of US$40m. Also,
  •  IAA Convertible bond issuance is on track, which is expected to be completed by end of 
  • the year.
  • Management is guiding IAA to be profitable in 2H15 with strong improvement in average 
  • fares and load factor driven by cost management and international routes oriented.
  • On Thailand recent bombing issues, Thailand AirAsia (TAA) has seen booking affected,
  •  though expect this to affect only in the near term. We opine the severity of the recent
  •  bombing tragedy might cause a huge dent to TAA bookings.

Risks

  • World crisis (ie. war, terrorism and epidemic outbreak), delay in KLIA2 completion,
  •  prolong surge in jet fuel and high speed train infrastructure between Singapore and P. Pinang.

Forecasts

  • Reduced our ticket sales and ancillary income yield, imputed lower fuel cost and increased
  •  our MYR/USD assumptions. Net earnings reduced by 10 – 28% for FY15-17.

Rating

BUY
Positives
  • 1) Beneficiary of strong air traffic into Malaysia, in line with government initiatives to boost
  •  tourism sectors; 2) Largest and lowest cost LCC in Asia with strong brand name; and 3)
  •  Strong ancillary income.
Negatives
  • 1) High jet fuel cost; 2) Strengthening of US$; and 3) Stiff competition from MAS and 
  • Malindo Air.

Valuation

  • Maintained BUY with new target Price of RM1.98 (From RM3.11) based on SOP. We
  •  excluded IAA valuation from our SOP, reduced our PE to 8 due to market risk, and our
  •  holding company discount to 20% owing to weakening regional travelling sentiment and
  •  the weak ringgit condition.
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 21 Aug 2015
4)

AirAsia Berhad - 1H15 Results Inline

Date: 21/08/2015 

Source : KENANGA
Stock : AIRASIA     Price Target : 1.86     |     Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 0.90     |     Upside/Downside :  +0.96 (106.67%)



Period

2Q15/1H15.

Actual vs. Expectations

AIRASIA’s 1H15 core net profit of RM262m accounts for 41% both our and consensus’ fullyear
 estimates. We deem the results as inline as we are expecting a stronger 2H15 backed by a
 seasonally stronger quarter in 4Q15.

Dividends

No dividend declared in 2Q15, as expected.

Key Results Highlights

YoY, AIRASIA’s 1H15 core net profit saw a major improvement by 72% to RM262m despite a
 flattish revenue of RM2,622m. This is mainly due to the improvements in operating margins 
driven by lower fuel costs that came down by 14%, coupled with better contribution from its
 associates (+569%) i.e. TAA, AAE Travel. That aside, average fare and ancillary per pax also
 seen minor improvements by 1% to RM133.1/pax and RM42.6/pax, respectively.
QoQ, its 2Q15 revenue improved by 2% to RM1,325m, but its core net profit declined by 28% 
to RM109m. The decline in profitability was mainly driven by several factors, i.e. spike in staff 
costs (+12%) due to late bonus payments, higher financing costs (+7%) and also a lower
 contribution from its associates (-65%). On a positive note, its average fare per pax has seen
 an improvement of 4% to RM135.5/pax, while its passenger load factor remains healthy at
 80% (+5ppt) as a result of better capacity management.

Outlook

Moving forward, we believe that should the yields be maintained at current levels, AIRASIA will
 continue to benefit from lower jet fuel costs. That aside, management highlighted in its 
teleconference that they are highly confident in turning around its Indonesian (IAA) and
 Philippines (PAA) associates by year-end. Their plan of raising funds of c.USD200m for both
 IAA and PAA through convertible bond and equity injection is still on-track and management
 is targeting to complete the exercise by year-end.

Change to Forecasts

No change in our earnings estimates.

Rating

Maintain OUTPERFORM

Valuation

We are reiterating our OUTPERFORM call on AIRASIA with a lower Target Price of RM1.86 based
 on 1.32x FY15E PBV, after factoring in the potential impairment of RM1.6b in our Scenario 2
 analysis report dated 19th June 15.

Risks to Our Call

Sharp decline in airfares on intensified price war.
Sharp fluctuation in currency and fuel price.
War, global political risk, pandemic.
Source: Kenanga Research - 21 Aug 2015
5)

AirAsia Bhd - Bogged down by restructuring cost

Date: 21/08/2015 

Source : MAYBANK
Stock : AIRASIA     Price Target : 2.05     |     Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 0.90     |     Upside/Downside :  +1.15 (127.78%)



  • 2Q15 was below ours and consensus.
  • AirAsia will grow at a slower pace as it embraces maturity. Expect improved profit
  •  consistency in years ahead.
  • Target price reduced to MYR2.05 from MYR2.32 on earnings revision. Maintain BUY, 
  • cheapest LCC globally.

What’s New

AirAsia’s 1H15 core net profit of MYR222.0m (+46% YoY) was below expectation at 28% of ours
 and 34% of street full year forecasts. There were plenty of uncanny cost fluctuations relating to
 aircraft disposal and termination charges which we didn’t anticipate. Some noteworthy updates
 from the management as follows: i) On a deleveraging exercise, sold 10 aircraft to third parties 
and will sell a further six more by end of the year.
ii) Fleet growth plans have been skimped down and growth rates will be at modest rate up till the
 end of the decade.
iii) Addressing capital concerns at Indonesian AirAsia (IAA) via redeemable convertible preference
 share (RCPS).
iv) Management is very upbeat on 2H15 prospects on the back of Malaysian Airline’s capacity cuts.

What’s Our View

We can’t get a handle on AirAsia’s cost which is fluctuating a lot on a quarter to quarter basis.
 We impute all the new cost items and revise our FY15-17 earnings forecast by -11.8%, +0.6% 
and -1.6% respectively. As such, we derive a new target price of MYR2.05 (from MYR2.32) pegged
 to an unchanged 8.0x FY15 PER, which is the bottom end of the typical cycle of 8-15x for airlines
. AirAsia has lost more than half of its value in the past 12-months and is now the cheapest LCC
 globally. BUY.
Source: Maybank Research - 21 Aug 2015
6)

AirAsia - Broadly In Line

Date: 21/08/2015 

Source : PUBLIC BANK
Stock : AIRASIA     Price Target : 1.88     |     Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 0.90     |     Upside/Downside :  +0.98 (108.89%)



AirAsia reported net profit of RM243m (-33.8% YoY) for its 2QFY15. Excluding forex loss,
 tax incentives and other one-off gain/loss, its core net profit for the quarter was
 RM109.5m (+61.6% YoY). For 1HFY15, AirAsia core net profit increased by 37.2%
 YoY to RM262.4m from RM191.3m in 1HFY14. Although core net profit only accounting
 for 40.7% and 43.3% of ours and consensus estimates respectively, the results wer
e broadly in line as we expect a stronger 2HFY15 due to seasonality. Our Outperform call
 on AirAsia is maintained at the target price of RM1.88 tagged to 10x FY16F EPS.
2QFY15 revenue flat YoY, but higher net operating profit. AirAsia reported flat revenue growth
 of 1.1% YoY in 2QFY15 to RM1.32bn. Despite a decline in average passenger fare by 10.2% YoY
 to RM141 due to fuel surcharge removal early of this year and revenue per ASK (RASK) reduced
 by 5.2% YoY to 14.6sen, the passenger traffic growth during the quarter jumped by 6.8% YoY.
 The ancillary revenue per passenger has slightly increased by 2.2% YoY to RM46 from RM45 in
 2QFY14. Cost per ASK in 2QFY15 has decreased to 11.9sen (-10.8% YoY), due to lower fuel
 expenses (-18.1% YoY), maintenance and overhaul costs (-20.5% YoY) and depreciation 
(-12.9% YoY). Hence, net operating profit in 2QFY15 was soared by 39.8% YoY to RM243.5m. 
(Table 1-3)
Outlook. Management believe AirAsia will benefit from better operating environment in 2HFY15
 due to capacity reduction and route cancellations by other players, positive fare trend, recovery 
of Chinese travelers demand and lower fuel prices. The Group expects to achieve ancillary income
 per pax to RM50 by end of the year and focusing on building cash through its capacity
 management strategy. Thailand (TAA) is expected to see growth from China traffic. Meanwhile,
 Indonesia (IAA) will reduce its fleet size by 4 aircraft to operate at its optimal capacity and improve
 aircraft utilisation by terminating non-profitable routes and focusing more on international routes.
 Also, Philippines (PAA) is expected to reduce its cost further through its re-fleeting plan by selling
 older aircraft owned by Zest Air and in discussion to early return its aircraft to third party lessors
 by end of FY15.
Maintain Outperform with target price of RM1.88 pegged to 10x FY16F EPS. At this current 
share price, AirAsia is trading at a compelling PE ratio of 4.3x FY16F earnings, which is at its
 lowest 4-year historical PER (Chart 1). We like AirAsia for its solid long-term potential growth
 prospects, low-cost competitive advantage and network connectivity & synergies within the
 AirAsia Group. We anticipate AirAsia to benefit from lower fuel prices and yield recovery environment.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 21 Aug 2015
7)
次季净利下跌 亚航跌破1令吉
By Sangeetha Amarthalingam / theedgemarkets.com   | August 21, 2015 : 12:00 PM MYT 

(吉隆坡21日讯)次季净利下跌,亚洲航空(AirAsia Bhd)在大盘走弱之际,跌破1令吉。

亚航(基本面:0.2;估值:2)一度跌4仙或3.96%,至97仙。

截至11时40分,报1令吉,跌1仙或0.99%,成交量达2638万4200股,是第三大热门股。
同时,富时隆综指跌1.60点。

亚航昨日公布,截至6月底次季净利按年跌33.8%至2亿4303万令吉,或每股8.7仙,
上财年同期为3亿6716万令吉,或每股13.2仙,主要因为美元走强,导致贷款外汇亏损。

亚航指出,外汇亏损4359万令吉,因为截至6月底以美元计价的贷款汇率是3.6717,
相比去年同期的3.2298。

脱售和回租飞机的单次费用也影响盈利表现。

乘客量按年增7%,提振次季营业额起1.06%至13亿2000万令吉,
同期为13亿1000万令吉。承载率为80%,与去年持平。

同时,该航空公司说,印尼子公司将发行可赎回和可转换优先股,而不是发售永久债券,
以在9月底前提高股东权益,避免营运执照遭撤销。

上个月,亚航宣布其持有49%的印尼联号公司,印尼亚航(PT Indonesia AirAsia)
计划发售永久债券,筹资超过2亿美元(8亿2226万令吉)。

亚航集团总执行长丹斯里东尼费南德斯表示:“印尼亚航管理层已向印尼交通部提出
发售永久债券的计划,以摆脱负资产的财务状况。然而,被建议发行无投票权的优先股。”

尽管业绩表现疲弱,马银行投资银行分析员 Mohshin Aziz维持“买入”评级,
目标价随盈利调整,从2.32令吉,下调至2.05令吉。


他预计,亚航未来今年的盈利将改善,并认为是全球最廉价的低成本航空公司。

大众投资银行指出,首半年核心净利按年增37.2%至2亿6240万令吉,
虽然分别只占该行和市场全年预测的40.7%和43.3%,但普遍符合预期,
因下半年通常比较强劲。


分析员Nur Farah Syifaa’ Mohamad Fu’ad说,维持“超越大市”评级,以及目标价1.88令吉。



(注:The Edge Research基本面分数和估值分数均根据历史数据计算。
基本面分数反映公司的获利能力和资产负债表实力,估值分数则决定股项估值是否具吸引力
。3分意味着基本面强劲和估值吸引。)

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8)

行销活动减弱 座位收入减少 亚航次季净利挫34%
2015-08-21 12:35



(吉隆坡20日讯)因首季亚洲
该公司向马交所报备,不过,
次季搭客量按年扬7%,
首半年内,亚航净利跌22.6%,
根据亚航文告,预计大马市场
仅泰国转盈 3联号公司续亏
在联号公司方面,泰国亚航净利
印尼亚航则陷入亏损,次季净亏
菲律宾亚航也蒙受亏损,
债务减6%
印度亚航方面,次季净亏
亚航总执行长艾琳奧玛指出,
同时,该公司继续提高流动
全年展望乐观
尽管面对严峻经济挑战,
亚洲航空集团总执行长
自8月中,许多竞争业者
此外,低油价可降低飞机票价格,而中国游客需求复苏,都为对亚航有利。
东尼还说,将继续提高辅助收入,下班半年内将推出的新产品和服务包括快速通关
、电子礼券、新的飞机餐及免税购物。
取消了亚航所在市场的航班和航线。
丹斯里东尼费南德斯指出,今年下半年内,该公司大马业务将从持续改善的
营运环境中受惠。
亚航董事局持续正面和乐观看待第三季和全年的业绩展望。
现金及降低负债。截至次季末,总债务减少了6%,流动现金则增加了15%,
达18.4亿令吉。
该公司的营运开销节省措施持续奏效,次季内营运盈利增长了40%,
净营运盈利更大涨75%。
4亿4152万5000印度卢比(约2783万令吉),比去年同期净亏
693万7000印度卢比(约44万令吉)更加严重。
次季净亏7亿7697万5000比索(约6亿8881万令吉),去年同期净亏
13亿3193万5000比索(约11亿8079万令吉)。
4863.57亿印尼盾(约1亿4470万令吉),比去年同期净亏3403.36亿印尼盾
(约1亿107万令吉)更加严重。
报2亿7418万9000泰铢(约3177万令吉),去年同期净亏4亿1331万8000泰铢
(约4790万令吉)。
第三季的需求将持续强稳,平均承载率可达81%。
仅录得3亿9236万令吉;营业额则微扬0.32%,报26亿2165万令吉。
帮助承载率企稳80%,与去年同期持平。不过,因为原油价格下滑,该公司将
利益转嫁消费者,平均票价按年下滑了10%,至141令吉。
次季营业额报13亿2481万9000令吉,按年增1.06%。
航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板贸服股)行销活动减弱,加上取消燃油补贴收费,
每公里每座位收入减少,截至6月杪次季,净利按年挫33.81%,报2亿4302万7000
令吉,上财年同期3亿6715万5000令吉。
9)
2015-08-21 18:05


(吉隆坡21日訊)亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)次季及首半年淨利

達證券指出,亞航2015首半年業績表現符合預測,預料2016年飛機燃油價格將
不過,隨著最近泰國曼谷發生爆炸案,料將衝擊大馬亞航及泰國亞航的載客率,
安聯星展指出,亞航的外資持股額達到52%高水平,若是目前投資氣氛惡化,
隨著次季淨利較為遜色,以及外資持續拋售的欺凌,亞航今早股價一度跌破1令吉
閉市時跌勢未見緩和,仍跌4仙至97仙,全場總共有5千946萬1千600股易手,
安聯星展表示,亞航大部份貸款是以美元計,馬幣兌美元貶跌,需要以馬幣償還
美元匯率強勁將使亞航賺利受壓,因為57%成本以美元計,同時85%的債務也
馬銀行研究則認為,預料亞航未來盈利持續性將改善,並認為目前亞航是全球
大眾研究預料,亞航將從今年下半年較好經營環境中受惠,特別是其他競爭對手
受惠油價下跌或降票價
安聯星展指出,燃油價格每桶跌1美元,將為亞航2015及2016年的成本節省
“預料亞航在2015至2017年,將從聯號及聯營公司取得盈利成長264%、8%、
泰國亞航2015財政年的淨利料達18億2千萬銖(2014年為9千100萬銖),
安聯星展認為,若馬航改變策略,從減少飛行轉為爭取更多市場占有率,
大眾研究預料亞航將從今年下半年較好經營環境中受惠,特別是其他競爭對手
關於印尼亞航負資本課題,達證券表示,亞航推出一項新建議,即將一些應收款
該公司正與現有及新股東商討股份資本注入(參考數目為4千萬美元)及
及3%。2015年強勁成長主要由泰國亞航推動,因受到更多旅客到訪泰國所致
(2015年首半年按年增長24%)。”
2千400萬至2千600萬令吉,惟可能未能全面受益,因可能將部份節省轉移給消費者
,即撤除額外燃油附加費。
減少產能及航線、正面的機票趨勢、中國旅客回流、及較低的燃油價格等利好支撐。
最便宜的廉航公司。
是以美元計。
更多債務,從而影響盈利。暫時將2015年美元債務的外匯虧損定在7億零630
萬令吉水平。
為第二熱門股,顯示賣壓相當強勁。
關口,下跌4仙或3.96%,至97仙,創下自2009年3月份以來最低紀錄。
將可能触發外資拋售持股。
達證券將亞航的2015至2017年淨利預測,分別上調12%、下減4%及上調11%。
持續下跌,惟亞航將部份節省,通過調低機票價格轉移給搭
發行可轉換債券(1億5千萬美元),所籌得資金將償還部份拖欠亞航的債務。

項轉換為印尼亞航的非投票可贖回及可轉換優先股。
減少產能及航線、正面的機票趨勢、中國旅客回流、及較低的燃油價格等利好支撐。
預料非理性競爭將重燃,到時亞航的回酬率將受到擠壓。
預料2016及2017年的淨利成長14%及15%。
雖略見疲軟,惟普遍還是符合市場預測,因為市場預期年杪旺季可收復部份失地,
加上亞航是全球最便宜的廉價航空公司,分析員在稍為下調目標價之余,
仍然維持良好評級。
10)

http://e-thg.blogspot.in/2015/08/airasia-fy15-q2.html


基本上對這次的業績一般分為兩派, 一些人覺得比上季下跌33%,讓人大跌眼鏡。
另一部分認為, Net Operation Profit 有很大進步, 從71m增加至123.9m, +71%,
 是復甦的開始。

業績之外,還有以下幾點關心的數據:

NTA & Current Share Price
FY15Q2 NTA 1.71, 股價0.97。連續七屆獲得最佳廉航的品牌不止不值錢,
 而且還是負數。
45%由外資持股的AIRASIA, 似乎遭到外資不要命的丟票。


Dividend Yield
也许很多人都没注意到, 按去年派息0.03, 股息率已悄悄达到了3.1%

Amount due from an association
印尼, 菲律賓, 泰國, 印度附屬公司的欠亞航的欠款總數從去年底的23億增加至26億,
 這個數字馬來西亞人太熟悉了,就是這麼巧。 說不定雞哥的款是亞航給的(開個玩笑)。
26億除於AIRASIA的總股數: 2.782 Billion, 等於0.9345.

不過按官方發佈的presentation, 其實債務并沒有增加, 23億變成26億主要是美金
貶值所引起。(Presentation的數據和Bursa財報的有點出入)

也就是說, 如果全部變成壞賬, 亞航的NTA會是1.71-0.935=0.775

當然, 之前對GMT的報告的分享【簡析】Airasia: GMT賬目疑雲有提到過, 
重點就是印尼和菲律賓是否有償債能力。

信, NTA就是1.71, 不信, 就是0.775, 判斷嘛, 還是那句老話, 靠自己。

Cash Flow
FY15 1st half 現金流表現不錯, 主要是sales and lease back 部分飛機的9億,
 再加上delay了新飛機的接收, 賣出AAE的3億, 清還了12億的貸款之後還有4億多進賬
。 持有現金18億。

Total Borrowing - Net Cash
Net borrowing從去年底的11,390m, 2個季度減低到10,531m, 減少了8.6億左右。

PE
Q2 EPS是8.7cents. 如果全年能達到30cents的EPS, 以現在的股價0.97來說, 
PE3.23

當然, 要順利達到30cents的EPS不容易, NET profit 需要達到8億左右。 
上半年的NET PROFIT是392m/EPS 14.1, 下半年是否能持續表現, 還是有風險和阻礙

1.Risk of Exchange Loss
AIRASIA大部分BORROWING來自購買飛機, 其中已經HEDGE了60%, 就是說, 
美金升10%, 對亞航的影響大概是4%, 如果美金升20%, 影響大概在8%。 
以NET BORROWING 100億來說, 估計受到的影響可能是4-8億之間。


2.Thailand blast effect
好不容易泰國從紅衫軍示威動亂中回復盈利, 現在又來了一個爆炸案, 
看來又要愛一段苦日子了。按照動亂時間的影響, 如果虧損預計可能在5千萬-1億之間

當然,有風險,也有助力
Benefit from Oil


油價這種跌法, 說不定IAA和PAA有機會在Q4出現盈利。
由於今年油價hedge 了50%, 而且價格是HEDGE在80, 實際價格(運輸,處理, 
佣金等)預計在88左右。

IATA的最新資料, 亞洲飛機燃料最新每桶報USD 62, 和亞航現在的品均88每桶的
價格還是有差距, 不過按TONY的說法, 明年不Hedge, 并能夠節省1.6億美金的成本。
個人覺得這個估算還是比較實際的。

估計年用油大概620-650萬桶(以當季150萬桶用油量估算),如果一桶能再省
20(85-62)美金, 那也有1.3億美金了。

MAS ROUTE CUT
如果品均票价能回到2010年180/pax的榮景, 那泰國的影響就不算什麼了。。。
小結
美金+泰國  Blast VS 油價+MAS route cut, 到底哪個影響較大?
還是和之前的分析一樣, 亞航的估值是在信與不信之間, 信, 值RM3, 不信,
 值RM0.5. 判斷和最終決定當然還是交給各位自己了。

寫這篇分析是, 我依然擁有亞航股份, 如分析有不實數據與偏袒, 還望不吝指教。


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11
http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/ptres/res31915.pdf

Good Opportunity to Accumulate

Date: 21/08/20
Source : TA
Stock : AIRASIA     Price Target : 1.98     |     Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 0.90     |     Upside/Downside :  +1.08 (120.00%)