2015年9月2日星期三

转贴;AIRASIA–Fundamental Analysis (1 Sep 2015) - L. C. Chong

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Tue, 1 Sep 2015, 08:53 PM 

AIRASIA Analysis:-
My View:-
  • Higher risk that IAA’s convertible bonds (CB) may not be successfully issued, as the CBs are now being marketed to foreigners rather than the initial target of local Indonesian investors
  • FY15 Q2
  • In 2Q15, despite registering a flat revenue growth, AirAsia reported a 62% increase in core net profit to RM109m taking 1H15 core net profit to RM262m (+35% yoy).
  • Load factor in 2Q15 improved to 80% yoy (+4.6ppt), on aggressive marketing activities. The number of passengers carried grew by 6.8% yoy, however average fares fell by 10% in the absence of fuel surcharges resulting in a 5% drop in revenue/ASK (RASK). CASK fell by 11% yoy on lower fuel costs. For 2H15, AA has hedged 51% of its fuel requirement at US$84/barrel.
  • Contribution from associates more than doubled in 2H15, mainly attributed to higher earnings from Thailand AA (45%-owned). TAA registered a net profit of THB374m (2Q14: loss of THB318m). TAA’s RASK improved by 5% while CASK fell by 10%.
  • The continued weakening of the Ringgit against the US$ which is on average 12.7% lower compared to FY14. ~70% of operating expenses and 80% of debt are US$ denominated. AirAsia’s US$ debt hedges are at 73% utilising a combination of natural and derivative hedging. Meanwhile, ~8% of operating costs are hedged to reduce the impact from USD/MYR volatility.
  • Positives:
  • A more rational market with further yield recovery
  • Capacity management to reduce costs
  • Better ancillary income.
  • I am still worry about AIRASIA, but I believe AIRASIA will be able to go through these issues.
Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (26 Aug 2015)http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4846625
At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.