2015年9月20日星期日

AIRASIA 5099 亜航 可望平稳中继续飞掦----

Rm1.31 買就对了,2015 年全估计 eps=rm0.28 ,pe=7 倍,股价=rm1.96 ,供参考,进出自负.
亚洲航空是马来西亚第二家国际航空公司,也是亚洲规模最大的廉价航空公司,
主要枢纽机场为吉隆坡第二国际机场, 集团伙伴公司泰国亚洲航空、
印尼亚洲航空与菲律宾亚洲航空分别选定曼谷廊曼国际机场、
苏加诺-哈达国际机场与克拉克国际机场作为枢纽机场,
整个集团的国内及国际定期航班共超过400个航点,遍布25个国家。
首席执行官: 艾琳·奥玛
总部: 马来西亚雪邦
创立于: 1993 年

1)

基地不同没直接竞争,亚航短期不受flymojo威胁

我国航空领域惊现新业者flymojo,预计今年10月开始营运,明年首季起飞。
Fly Mojo私人有限公司,昨天在浮罗交怡的海事和航空展览会(LIMA),与加拿大公司庞巴迪(Bombardier)商用飞机签署意向书,购入20架CS100飞机,另有额外添购20架CS100飞机的选择权。
根据CS100飞机的单价,20架CS100飞机将值14.7亿美元(约54.38亿令吉),若全数行使选择权,购买40架飞机的金额将高达29.4亿美元(约108.65亿令吉)。
无论是相比亚航的A320飞机、马印航空(Malindo)的B738s飞机、还是马航的飞机,CS100飞机的体积都相对较小,而且价格较便宜。
不过,有别于其他业者,flymojo选择柔佛士乃为主要基地,第二基地则取地沙巴亚庇。
因此,大马研究分析员认为,亚航在吉隆坡国际机场营运,与flymojo之间不会有直接竞争,除了十分赚钱的吉隆坡至亚庇(KULBKI)航线。
然而,亚航在该路线已拥有高频率航班,每日共有13个航班。
除此之外,亚航预计不会面临其他竞争。
“flymojo的20架飞机估计会耗3至4年送抵,然而,届时也只会占去亚航在大马的19%承载量。”
新业者加入利大马机场
针对flymojo对亚航的威胁,丰隆投行分析员也不感到过度担忧,因前者以二级机场为基地,该机场只占全国乘客流量的11%。
加上,以承载量较少的飞机营运,相较亚航和马航,均失去成本优势。
“而且士乃没有能力营造高出入境的乘客流量,因当地人口少,缺乏连结。”
兴业投行分析员对flymojo选择士乃为基地,感到质疑,因当地缺乏可观的人潮,即使有,也会与新加坡樟宜机场竞争。
随着隆新高铁几乎落实,这也会对士乃成为航空枢纽带来挑战。
鉴于flymojo是以全方位航空营运,近期内料不会威胁到亚航。
不过,新业者加入战围,将使机场营运者大马机场(AIRPORT,5014,主板贸服股)受惠。
目前,士乃机场是由马矿业(MMCCORP,2194,主板贸服股)持有。
来源:南洋网
2)
亚航拟回购10%股票
财经新闻 财经  2015-09-19 09:12


(吉隆坡18日讯)亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板贸服股)建议回购公司不超过10%股票,并将在股东特别大会,寻求股东的批准。
亚洲航空向马交所报备,公司可回购最多2亿7829万7408股普通股。
这项股票回购计划,是要稳定股价、保留为库存股。
亚洲航空表示,回购股票可能会对每股资产、每股净利、以及负债率有影响,视回购股票数量。
亚洲航空今年股价跌势严重,从年初2.72令吉,8月26日挂78仙至历史低点,跌幅达到71%。
亚洲航空周五收报1.31令吉,上涨8仙或6.50%,成交量为8173万3500股
穩定市價‧杜絕投機‧亞航擬回購股票10%2015-09-19 09:29
(吉隆坡18日訊)亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)擬展開回購繳足資本10%股票計劃,將召開特別股東大會尋求股東批准。

擬開特東大尋求股東批准

該公司發文告表示,相關回購計劃將讓集團和子公司利用任何財政盈餘從市場回購股票,以穩定市價和杜絕投機活動,並在股票估值遭低估時用來強化投資者信心。
亞航週五交易大熱,股價全日上揚8仙或6.5%至1令吉31仙,成交量達8億1千733萬5千股股票,為全場第二大熱門股。( 星洲日報/財經)
3)剎那光輝
2015-09-18 19:15
上世紀80年代香港當紅歌手蔡楓華在節目上一時失言,說出了“一剎那光輝不代表永恆”一詞後,似乎應驗了他自己娛樂事業的路途,其星運開始走下坡,即使再努力也難以挽回人氣。無獨有偶,該名言可能會出現在馬股某些上市企業的身上了。

以亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)為例,早年開拓廉航路線,打著“人人皆可飛”的口號,讓普羅大眾都可以乘搭飛機,促使飛機票也不再是昂貴不已負擔。托亞航的福,許多人也因此取得多次周遊列國的機會。

亞航的精簡成本營運的模式,讓該公司多次榮獲最低成本的航空公司,且取得不俗的淨利,因而引起市場許多投資者紛紛買進其股票,其股價自然水漲船高。
可惜營商環境並非一成不變,近期許多利空環境籠罩環球經濟,導致亞航的獲利不如早前,其股價也遭受賣壓。
“剎那光輝”的魔咒計似乎開始籠罩在亞航身上了,但該公司在股價創新低後,其投資價值又似乎開始浮現了,基金趁低吸納,其股價在短短3週內大力反彈,漲幅近60%。對比高峰時期,雖然亞航目前市值未及當初一半,但也說明了該公司還是有一定的“斤兩”。
到底亞航是“剎那光輝”還是企業的常青樹?丹斯里東尼重新掌陀該公司以後,又是否可以讓亞航重現昔日航空業的神話呢?且看東尼的管理能力吧!(星洲日報/財經小品‧作者:謝汪潮)
4)

AirAsia flying high again

Published at 2015-09-19 07:03:46 by The Star
AirAsia Bhd has been facing strong headwinds lately. The budget carrier’s share price has been on a roller-coaster ride over the past couple of months, fluctuating dramatically.
The airline’s shares have been under pressure for some time and plunged to 78 sen on Aug 26. Its share price has since rebounded sharply from that recent low, with analysts calling it an overshooting of its price during the selldown. AirAsia became a penny stock at the end of last month and stayed below the RM1 mark for about two weeks. Its share price has since rebounded, closing at RM1.31 yesterday.
Year to date the counter has lost more than 50%.
What triggered the quick recovery?
Analysts say the recent selldown was overdone and the market has ignored the significant value of its portfolio comprising non-airline businesses within the group. In addition, they note that AirAsia’s fundamentals are intact and it is undervalued.
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd analyst Mohshin Aziz concurs that the selldown was overdone and maintains a “buy” call on AirAsia with a target price of RM2.05.
“It is a highly beaten down stock. Given the situation, it is the highest candidate (to be picked up by investors),” he tells StarBizWeek.
Mohshin notes that AirAsia has been very active this year engaging the investment community by having meetings, teleconferences and so forth but to no avail as it shares continued to be beaten.
“AirAsia is cheap. Cheapest in its history in US dollar terms and also the cheapest airline stock in the world currently,” he says.
Mohshin says there is no point talking about valuations of AirAsia, as it is beyond fire sale.
“We derived an alternative and tangible valuation methodology for AirAsia, given that the conventional ones are gaining no traction. We took the latest available appraised value of its fleet, net off its long-term debt and times it by the ringgit at RM4.3 to the dollar and we get an intrinsic value of RM1.34 per share. Basically, the metal value of the business is higher than the current market capitalisation.
“Shareholders can make a nice 18% gain by just selling off the fleet whilst keeping the RM4.8bil of equity,” he remarks.
It is worth noting that the US-based Wellington group of companies which had reduced their stakes in the low-cost carrier in June this year have started buying shares in AirAsia.
According to the latest filings with Bursa Malaysia, Wellington Management International Ltd has 200.74 million shares, or 7.214% stake in AirAsia. Wellington Management Global Holdings Ltd has an indirect 228.19 million shares or 8.2% stake, while Wellington Group Holdings LLP has an indirect 278.99 million or 10.025% stake.
The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) had on Sept 3 acquired 2.498 million shares in AirAsia but it disposed 892,500 on Sept 9.
“AirAsia took a beating but it is now a V-shape recovery. Wellington and EPF are back. They have been buying and hopefully the worst is behind for AirAsia. The counter has been attracting high trading volume,” an analyst say.
The turbulence comes not in just its shares being sold down. AirAsia is also battling with other issues such as the report by accounting research firm GMT Research that raised questions about related party transactions. GMT Research had highlighted problems with the company’s accounting practices and raised concerns regarding the firm’s cash flow, leverage and group structure.
News that PT Indonesia AirAsia (IAA) may be shut down by the end of July also caused a panic among investors.
AirAsia’s 49%-affiliate IAA has received a letter from Indonesia’s Transport Ministry laying out terms for it to ensure a positive equity position by July 31.
Indonesia’s Transport Ministry has ordered 13 airlines to raise funds to reach positive equity positions out of concerns that a negative equity would affect safety oversight.
Futhermore, the company’s latest quarterly results provided little cheer to investors. In the first six months to June 30, AirAsia’s net profit fell to RM392.36 mil from RM506.87 mil a year ago, with a relatively flat revenue of RM2.6bil.
AirAsia is also battling the Malaysia Airport Holdings Bhd (MAHB) over its operations at KLIA2. It was reported that AirAsia and MAHB would be having a “peace dinner” at the end of the month to resolve their disputes.
Analysts, however, are not too optimistic that their differences could be resolved over a dinner. “One dinner cannot bury the hatchet. We will just have to wait and see,” one analyst says.
Analysts believe that another concern weighing down AirAsia is the continued weakening of the ringgit against the strong greenback as about 70% of operating expenses and 80% of debt are US dollar-denominated. So far this year, ringgit has weakened by about 20% year-to-date.
“We believe that one overhang over AirAsia’s share price performance year-to-date is the weakening of the ringgit against the US dollar.
“We estimate that 64% of operating expenses (jet fuel, MRO and aircraft leasing) are US dollar denominated. As 8% of operating costs are hedged to reduce the impact from US dollar over ringgit volatility, the impact of every 5% drop in the ringgit equals to an increase in operating cost by 3%. Separately, 73% of its US dollar borrowings are hedged,” MIDF Research says.
At 50%, jet fuel constitutes the largest operating cost component for AirAsia.
AirAsia’s exposure to spot jet fuel is 49% in fourth quarter 2015 (51% hedged) and 100% in FY16 (fully unhedged). Thus, the impact on a 5% drop in jet fuel price reduces operating cost by 1.2% in fourth quarter 2015 and 2.5% in FY16.
MIDF Research also notes that daily short value on AirAsia has reduced from a daily average of RM706,000 in the first week of September to RM335,000 in the second week of September.
“This is also a major improvement from RM1mil to RM2mil average seen in previous months. We also believe that short sellers have been covering their positions by buying back the stock as share price rose 60% off its 77 sen low, typical in a short-squeeze situation,” it says.
5)
取自松大资本--

Counter Update (5099 Airasia Berhad)
AirAsia 这个季度的业绩亏损相信令不少投资者震惊,但我们仔细观察之后我们发现了几个重要的线索。
第一 公司的Operating Profit是RM226,295,000而Net Operating Profit也有RM109,799,000,这证明了公司这一次的亏损并不是由公司的业务出现的问题,那问题出在那里呢?
是石油价吗?
不是,因为公司的Aircraft Fuel Expenses并没有增加,而这个数目又去年同季的RM647,914,000下跌到了RM620,859,000,相信问题并不是出在这里。
公司的开销出现最大增长的是Finance Costs 由去年同季的RM106,357,000增长到RM153,872,000。另一个就是Foreign Exchange Losses由去年同季的RM34,887,000升到了今年的RM647,560,000。这两个就是这一次亏损的罪毁祸首。
(以上数据都可以在这个quarter report的第一面找到)
但我们再仔细观察看,我们发现第31面里的note 26中发现,这个Foreign Exchange losses是unrealized Foreign Exchange loss on borrowings。Unrealized 的意思是这笔亏损是账目上的亏损,但实际上对公司的Cash flow是没有任何影响的。
为什么会有这样的情况呢?
原因就出在公司所借的贷款是以美元计算的。打个比方:当初公司在1USD换RM3马币时相美国银行借了USD100m的债务而公司就会在账目上把这笔债务记为RM300m。但好景不常,马币在之后下跌到1USD换RM3.60,而公司在这个时候需要交季度报告,而公司所欠美国银行的钱虽然还是USD100m但在进账是公司需要考量最新的汇率而必须把账记为RM360m。这个时候公司就会出现RM60m 的Unrealized Foreign Exchange Loss on Borrowings了。那公司实际上有亏钱吗?是有的,但并没有RM60m那么多,这是因为公司假设今天如果马上以RM3.60的汇率来还的话才会亏的,但这笔帐是以十年偿还的话,那实际亏损就要看马币继续的走势而公司的亏损也不是RM60m了。( 预阅读更多,请到Grandpine Algobox系统的内部会员讯息平台参考)

6)
取自E.O.S.K.I.S

AIRASIA (5099.KL): HOW LOW CAN IT GO?

I have always considered myself both value and opportunistic trader/investor. This strategy has helped me gained 30% return when I was trading in the US for a year (Perhaps it’s not so great, as S&P 500 recorded around 30% return for the same period). It’s the same mindset that has led me to buy a ridiculously undervalued stock: AIRASIA, costing me over 31% unrealized loss since I bought it in late July.
At the time of writing this,  AIRASIA was bouncing back from its 52-week low at 0.765 MYR (~ 0.18 USD). It has lost over 70% of its price since January 2015. Despite its billions of debt, accounting scandals and depreciating Ringgits, I still feel that it’s a value buy and here’s why:

Net Tangible Assets (NTA)

NTA is always my key metric to study when analysing a stock. After AirAsia latest earning announcement, the company still hold a NTA of  1.71 MYR. That means, if AirAsia were to be liquidated at this moment, each shareholder would get 1.71 MYR back, at least theoretically. Essentially, you will be spending less than 1 MYR to buy 1.71 MYR worth of asset. So, what can be a better deal?

Falling Fuel Cost

While Ringgits depreciated around 13% since January 2015, Crude Oil price fell roughly 25% during the same period. From the latest quarterly reports, Aircraft fuel expenses was about 0.96 Billion MYR(over 40% of operating expenses) for the first 2 quarters, compared to 1.11 Billion MYR(48% of operating expenses) from the past year.

Strong Earnings

Despite having a bumpy start for 2015, AirAsia still recorded higher revenue for the first 2 quarters in 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. If it wasn’t for the depreciating Ringgits, its net profit would be a lot more impressive. But hey, almost all Bursa-traded stocks are impacted by Ringgits. Therefore, forex losses should not be emphasized so much, if you are trading only in Bursa of course.

EOHKIS Sentiment: Buy
For me, it’s clear: it’s a value buy. I missed the window when NOKIA was trading below its NTA at 1.71 USD in mid 2012, and it ended up closing at 4.18 USD in Jan 2013. We shall see if the same strategy would bring me any profit this time.