2015年9月8日星期二

5161 jcy rm 0.685 buy in

1)
Y国际 美元强缓冲销量跌
2015-08-21 13:53



目标价:1.08令吉
最新进展
JCY国际(JCY,5161,主板科技股)截至6月30日第三季,净赚按年扬30%,报3255万4000令吉;营业额则涨6%,至4亿7975万4000令吉。
行家建议
该公司第三季净利符合我们的预期,而首9个月的净利,占全年预测的74%。
美元走强抵消销量走低,加上公司几乎100%的销量和50%至55%的总成本以美元计价,促使该公司受惠于美元升值。
再者,该公司也受惠于近期的铝价低迷,因铝价为主要原料成本。
该公司投资2亿至3亿令吉,在未来3至5年自动化生产,要将旗下的1万8000名劳力,减少28%至30%。我们假设裁员5%,将省下2200万令吉和带来1%的净赚幅。
尽管领域需求在接下来2季趋软,但得益于汇率兑换,相信仍能达到我们的净利预估。
另外,公司现金流充裕,截至第三季的营运现金有5200万令吉,带动首9个月的营运现金达1亿6800万令吉,而2.19亿令吉的净现金,相等于公司市值的16%或每股10.6仙。


大华继显 

2)
(BUY/Target: RM1.08)
JCY’s 3QFY15 core net profit is in line with our expectation. While overall storage demand is soft, JCY will continue to do well on yoy basis as favourable exchange rate, lower raw material cost as well as production automation plan is to its advantage. Cashrich JCY offers prospective yield of 7.9%. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM1.08.

Source: UOB Kay Hian Research - 20 Aug 2015
3)

2.24億現金在握‧JCY或併購競爭對手

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Thu, 23 Jul 2015, 05:12 PM 

2015-07-23 17:03
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(吉隆坡23日訊)JCY國際(JCY,5161,主板科技組)2億2千400萬令吉現金在握,令市場揣測該公司可能併購競爭對手,分析員認為併購行動中長期對JCY有利,可減少競爭和擴大賺益,慷慨派息值得“買進”。

大華繼顯表示,JCY過去3天股價上漲9%,因市場傳言該公司可能併購其中一家負債累累的競爭對手,這也顯示電子業晉入鞏固期。 

該行對此併購傳言持中和看法,因需要更多相關資訊以進行評估。
該股週四下跌0.5仙,掛74.5仙。
大華繼顯說,除了或相等於市值的14%的現金可攻守自如,即使全球硬碟需求走疲,然而預期JCY可從可從強勢美元和原料價疲弱受惠,其100%銷售以美元計,以美元計之成本佔55%。
用作原料的鋁價按年跌19%,今年迄今跌11%,不預期近至中期價格回彈。另外,JCY預計3至5年通過2億至3億令吉的自動化生產過程,削減約5千名外勞員工,每年省2千200萬或賺益改善1%。
即便需求可能在未來一兩季放緩,美升息後再拉動美元走強;首季、次季和迄今美元走強至3.62、3.66和3.80,預期今後兩年馬幣兌美元平均利率3.65,可達致預期之盈利。
“硬碟生產未來一兩季盈利看淡,工業數據已有些徵兆,預測第四季才會改善。上半年硬碟需求走疲,主要是個人電腦原裝生產商減少庫存,預期7月29日推展視窗10後,第三季末和第四季需求才可上衝。”
顧能(Gartner)調查顯示,個人電腦出口按年跌9.5%至6千840萬個,寫下2013年第三季的最大跌幅。個人電腦出口主要是美元走強、個人電腦更昂貴、經銷商因視窗10的推出而拒進貨。該調查公司預期2015全年個人電腦跌4.4%。
固態硬碟(SSD)出口也下跌,分析員預期JCY難逆國際大勢而上。
美國希捷公司(Seagate)截至7月3日第四季預期營業額按季跌12%至13%,由33億美元走跌至29億美元。
分析員維持“買進”評級,目標價1令吉零8仙,為2016財政年本益比的10倍。2015與2016財政年派息率50%,週息率6.8%,這是中小資本股中最高的派息。(星洲日報/財經‧報導:張啟華)


點看全文: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/119601?tid=18#ixzz3ghigBJtW  
4)

希捷峇都加灣擴硬碟廠‧JCY“近水樓台”看俏

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015, 05:26 PM


2015-06-02 16:59
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(吉隆坡2日訊)全球市場的硬碟競爭對手減少、硬碟價格也益趨穩定,強勢美元讓業務亮眼,加上美國希捷公司(Seagate)計劃在峇都加灣斥資10億5千萬令吉擴展硬碟廠,JCY國際(JCY,5161,主板科技組)有“近水樓台”之利,肯納格研究認為“利多紛呈”,前景亮麗可期。

JCY國際致力成為一站式綜合供應商,正積極獲取更多訂單,擴展希捷的營業額比重。希捷在峇都加灣擴展硬碟廠,JCY國際有“近水樓台”之利,相比競爭者遠在中國。  

肯納格說,該公司也透過實施自動化程序裁減客工,未來3至5年斥資2億至3億用於落實這個進程,員工由1萬9千減5千至1萬4千人,每年約可節省1億令吉。
目前該公司人事成本約佔銷售成本的27%,今、明兩財政年負債比維持0.2倍。
肯納格說,JCY國際幾乎全部營業額以美元計,50%原料以美元計,這形成自然護盤。根據2014財政年敏感分析,美元每走挺10%,可帶來額外5千零50萬令吉盈利。
肯納格預測JCY國際2015財政年淨利為1億4千880萬令吉,首半年淨利7千440萬令吉,未把外匯賺益和希捷廠擴展因素考量在內。
JCY國際最近公佈的次季業績,淨利按年揚34%、按季起1%至5千120萬令吉,首6個月淨利起48%至1億零130萬令吉。美元兌馬幣走揚,讓JCY國際淨利比重達26.7%,若扣除外匯賺益的2千690萬令吉,上半年淨利達7千440萬令吉,符合市場預期。
全球硬碟生產商由2006年7大家,競爭、整合至目前的3大家,美國威騰(WD,市佔率45%)、希捷(市佔率40%)與東芝(市佔率15%),硬碟的平均售價也較少面臨價格競爭。
2015年硬碟出口料跌1.7%至5億5千430萬個,2014年則基於遊戲方興未艾,需用儲存空間大硬碟而微幅增長2.2%;然而,硬碟出口5年複合增長率料跌至2.1%,主要是個人電腦市場式微和固態硬碟持續侵蝕市場。
肯納格說,很多競爭對手皆面臨營運與財務難題,JCY國際或可從中獲其利而成為唯一的綜合供應商。
JCY國際的本益比是11倍,與全球同儕估值同步,肯納格未為該公司評級,給於79仙目標;市場共同析評級是“賣出”,目標價58仙。(星洲日報/財經‧報導:張啟華)
5)

Wednesday, 9 September 2015

JCY - Striking with the USD

JCY is definitely a no stranger to most of the investor of KLSE. Being one of the leading HDD component manufacturer that supplies 4 key HDD mechanical component (base plates, top cover assembly, actuator and antidiscs) to Western Digital and Seagate, its fortune is not looking to come small amidst the plunging of MYR and the strengthening of USD, forging a double boost on the forex gain.

JCY's Latest Price Chart
JCY had been trading at the range of RM 0.75 before getting hit along by the massive equity sell down after a series of concern from the slowing down of the world 2nd largest economy - China. However, the underlying fundamental and the current opportunity outlook for JCY would be really worth a consideration.

On a technical outlook, JCY had saw good accumulation prior before the release of it's 3rd quarterly result, where it can be spotted that good amount of of accumulation took place in the 20th and 21st of July 2015, along side with another accumulation sighted at 3rd August 2015, which had reasonably good amount of volume to support the bullish candlestick. However, the counter took a beating from the weaker market sentiment, which saw JCY share price sliding down towards the RM 0.65 region. The latest outlook is that JCY had broken the MA20, which could be marking a good indicator for a upward run.

Should the current bullish sentiment remain strong, JCY will penetrate RM 0.70 and test the region of RM 0.75 to RM 0.80.


Content Storage - Growing Strong

Although the storage sector had saw new comer SSD which will be able to operate faster and comes lighter, the cost of production is still relatively high to cater for the demand of the content storage. HDD will still continue to be the main supplier for the growing rising enterprise storage demand.

With the growing appetite in the demand of audio video streaming, this will continue to spur growth in the demand in cloud storage system. Analyst forecast that the global storage will grow 16% CAGR from 2014 to 2019.

One Stop Supplier to Key Manufacturer

JCY had been marketing itself as a 1-stop supplier for HDD manufacturer. Currently, JCY main clients are Western Digital (90%) and Seagate (10%), capturing the 25% in the market share for base plates manufacturing, whilst other component sees a market share from 10% to 28%. According to industry sources, actuator had the highest margin due to detailed and high precision in order to perform faster.


When Good News means Stronger USD

JCY derive almost 100% of their revenue in the form of USD. With approx 50% of the input cost denominated in USD, JCY benefit from a stronger greenback will change the underlining result of the company in a drastic manner. According to 1Q 2015, JCY recorded a forex gain of RM 16.7million when USD rose from RM 3.5 per dollar to RM 3.7 per dollar, making up 33% of the group's net profit.

The latest sharp increase of USD from RM 3.8 a dollar in July to the current RM 4.31 a dollar in September had saw a whopping 13.15% increase. This could potentially see a whopping RM 20 million in forex gain for the business operation in 3rd Quarter of 2015. (Calculation is based on sensitivity analysis provided in annual report that for every 10% increase in the USD/MYR would translate to RM50 million increase in JCY core net profit)


Fundamentally Good and Attractive Valuation

At the current price of RM 0.665, JCY is trading to at PER x10 valuation based on it's cumulative 3 quarter EPS. With the coming final quarter that could be factoring an increase of RM 20 million in it's net profit, JCY could be looking at a total final EPS of 8 to 8.5 cents for FYE 2015, which will value the share at RM 0.80 and above based on PER x10.

Besides on the attractive valuation, JCY dividend policy which pay out at least 50% of net profit will be sounding a great investment that would be paying 7.5% dividend yield at the current level. Putting up at investor appetite of 6%, that will be easily valuing JCY at RM 0.83 cents (Based on projection of 5 cents dividend per year - 1.25 cents each quarter)

JCY currently is in a net cash position, and enjoy a good positive cash flow from operation activities. Whilst some of it's competitor had yet to regain from the flood back then in 2011 at Thailand, it could pave a good opportunity for JCY to see M&A for it's expansion.

In conclusion, at the current price level, JCY is deemed a very attractive company to be looked into given the following summary
- Strong forex benefit from a stronger USD (10% to contribute RM50m in forex gain).
- Demand for enterprise storage continue to grow due to the growing demand in audio video streaming.
- JCY being one stop key supplier for Western Digital (90%) and Seagate (10%).
- JCY enjoy strong positive cash flow from operating activities
- JCY currently sitting in positive net cash position, hence shielding from potential interest rate hike that would cut into profits
- JCY dividend policy of payout on at least 50% of net profits. Current price level suggest an attractive yield of 7.5%.
- Valuation based on PER x 10 on EPS will see JCY at RM 0.80 range. Valuation based on 6% dividend yield from a 5 cents dividend pay out will see JCY valued at RM 0.83


Bone's TP : RM 0.80