2015年7月30日星期四

转贴--Oil prices fall on oversupply concerns, weaker dollar support

Publish date: Wed, 29 Jul 2015, 11:37 AM 
SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday as concerns over global oversupply outweighed the impact of a likely larger than expected draw in U.S. crude stocks and a weakening dollar.

Asian investors focused on OPEC production figures that showed members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries produced around 3 million barrels of oil per day more than daily demand in the second quarter, a Reuters survey showed.

"Glut is the word," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at Sydney's CMC Markets.

OPEC members pumped 31.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter against demand of 28.26 million bpd, the Reuters data showed.

Both Brent and U.S. crude came off session lows on Tuesday after data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels last week to 462 million, against analysts' expectations of a 184,000 barrel draw.

"It was the first time since July 14 the market has seen any sign of a bit of a bounce, albeit temporary," Spooner said.

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration will release official U.S. oil inventory data later on Wednesday.

Brent futures for September delivery fell 14 cents to $53.16 as of 0236 GMT after falling 17 cents in the previous session when it hit an intra-day low of $52.28, its lowest since Feb. 2, on concerns over China's stock market plunge.

U.S. crude for September delivery dropped 12 cents to $47.86 a barrel, after ending the previous session up 59 cents.

Investors were also awaiting the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later on Wednesday that could confirm a rise in U.S. interest rates as early as September.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities, including oil, more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Spooner expected the Fed to confirm market expectations of an increase in interest rates this year.

"But the rate of increase will be very modest," he said.

"My view is the dollar is positioned for a bit of a decline," because any hike had already been priced into currency markets, Spooner said.

The dollar slipped against a basket of six major currencies in Asian trade on Wednesday, while the euro gained against the dollar. The dollar index fell to 96.505, or 0.27 percent, after closing up at 96.745 in the previous session. -- REUTERS
个人浅见,原油的副产品是制作树脂的材料,美元稳定,2015年首季的出口占總銷售的57.0%,
对公司的未来净利向好。美元匯率每起5.0%,料使該公司2016年淨利增加3.1%至2千890萬令吉。
肯納格研究保持財測,2015年核心淨利為2千140萬令吉、2016年淨利則為
2千800萬令吉。合理目標價1令吉76仙,並給予“超越大市”評級。
相关同行领域如scientx,tguan, scgm,skpres的股价走势可做借镜.

SLP  Resources  was  testing  the  MYR1.56  level  in  its  latest  session.
Traders  may  buy  if  this  level  is  breached  in  the  near  term, 
with  a target  price  of  MYR1.71,  followed  by  MYR1.81.  In  the  meantime, 
the  stock  may  consolidate  further  if  the  MYR1.56  level  cannot  be surpassed.
  Support  may  be  found  at  MYR1.37,  
where  traders  can exit upon a breach to avoid a further correction.


Plastics & Packaging - Due for a Sector Re-rating

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Thu, 2 Jul 2015, 10:33 AM 

We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the Plastics sector. Overall 1Q15 results were within expectations, but TGUAN came in below due to weaker export demand. The sector has become a darling for investors under the current challenging times as it benefits from: (i) weaker Ringgit and stronger USD as sales are denominated in USD, and (ii) depressed oil prices resulting in cheaper raw material cost. SLP stands to benefit the most but SCIENTX and TGUAN may take a hit despite higher revenues due to higher interest costs on their USD-denominated debt. With the positive earnings outlook driven by solid earnings growth and strengthening USD, we also believe that the Consumer Packaging segment deserves to trade on par with the small-mid cap Technology sector stocks (applied PE average of 15.5x) as it is also export driven and largely a strong USD play. We have applied a Fwd PER of 15.5x for Consumer packager SLP on upgraded earnings, and 12.0x and 11.0x for the less aggressive growth Industrial packagers SCIENTX and TGUAN, respectively, thus resulting in our TP’s increasing by 4.1%-38.3%. Our Calls with TPs are SCIENTX (UP; TP: RM6.09), SLP (OP; TP: RM1.76), TGUAN (OP; TP: RM2.70).
1Q15 results review. 1Q15 results were within our expectations for SLP and SCIENTX. TGUAN came in below expectations due to weaker exports demand and lower ASP but this is still a turnaround from the last quarter due to stronger sales from high-margin products. Consumer packager, SLP saw better earnings which were up QoQ (+12%) and YoY (+76%) on low raw material cost and better sales mix which doubled its net margins (10.7%). Industrial packager, SCIENTX saw modest YoY earnings growth (+5%), while TGUAN’s YoY earnings declined (-40%) on weaker margins due to declining volume and forex losses. As a result, we have lowered our TGUAN’s earnings forecast by 18%-12% in FY15-FY16 on lower utilisation from a softening export market.
Export play on strengthening USD. A strengthening USD is generally positive for plastic manufacturers as a high portion from their exports is denominated in USD. Although the current USD level is likely to moderate, the consensus average indicates USD will be 14% higher YoY at USDMYR3.73. This bodes well for plastics sector revenue due to its high percentage of USDdenominated exports sector-wide. As of our cut-off date, the USDMYR exchange rate stood at RM3.76. Among the packagers under our coverage, SLP is the biggest beneficiary as its export sales are denominated in USD, while SCIENTX and TGUAN could take a hit despite higher revenue as both companies have net gearing of 0.4x and 0.1x in FY14, respectively, with a high proportion of USD denominated debt (SCIENTX: 61%, TGUAN: 76%) compared to SLP which is in a net cash position.
Resin cost outlook: stable. Year-to-date (YTD) average resin prices at c.USD1,400/MT is close to our resin price assumption, and we think that full-year costs are likely to remain stable in line with crude oil price trends. We expect resin prices to stay range bound in the near term, while a sharp hike in oil prices is extremely unlikely because OPEC has vowed not to cut crude oil output in its recent meeting (5th June 2015). Although like crude oil, resin costs have recovered slightly from Jan-15 (USD1,300/MT) to about USD1,500/MT, note that YTD average resin price at c.USD1,400/MT is 18% lower against FY14 average of USD1,700/MT. Our current assumption for companies under our coverage implies net margin at about 11%-13% for consumer packaging and about 3-6% for industrial packaging.
Consumer packaging segment should trade on par with mid cap Tech stocks. With the positive earnings outlook due to solid core earnings growth bolstered by a strengthening USD, we believe the Consumer Packaging segment deserves to be re-rated on par with the small-mid cap Technology sector stocks (applied PE average of 15.5x). We selected the Technology sector as the benchmark because we think the Consumer Packaging segment is benefitting from very similar factors, such as high growth based on strong consumer demand and riding on the export play given their largely USD-denominated earnings. For the Industrial Packaging segment, we apply a lower 12.0x and 11.0x on SCIENTX and TGUAN, respectively, as earnings upside on a weaker ringgit could be partly offset by higher borrowing cost. (Refer to Table 1 for details). Consumer packager SLP’s expected earnings growth are stronger at 75.8%-31.1% for FY15-16E vs. small mid-cap technology sector average of 62.1%-22.7%, However, the higher growth rates for SLP is because it is coming from a low base in FY14, and FY15-16E would be fuelled by capacity expansion set to kick in in July-15, alongside favourable macroeconomic conditions. As a result, we believe the Consumer Packagers deserves to trade on par with the Technology sector while we peg industrial packagers to a 20% discount to the Technology sector due to their weaker growth rates, lower margins and higher forex cost. Interestingly, based on plastic packaging peers in Japan, we observe a weighted average PER of 19.3x representing a 4% premium against market PE (TOPIX) of 18.5x. This is not the case in the Malaysian market as the overall packaging segment trades at 12x PER vs. the FBMKLCI’s PER of 16x. One can attribute this to the market capitalisation size of the Malaysian packaging players. However, if these players continue to expand and gain market share, we reckon that valuations will continue to re-rate.
Expecting better earnings for SLP. SLP is still on expansionary mode, while current macroeconomic conditions appear to work in SLP’s favour. As a result, we increase FY15-16E earnings by 10%-17% to RM21.4m-RM28.0m on: (i) stronger sales demand with increased orders from Japan, which is expected to kick in end-3Q15 to 4Q15 onwards, (ii) higher USD rate of USDMYR 3.65- 3.60 (from USDMYR 3.53) for FY15-FY16Ewhich will benefit all SLP’s exports which are on a rising trend, (1Q15 exports increased to 57% of total sales vs. 46% in FY14), (iii) stable low raw material (resin) cost due to lower oil prices, allowing for stronger margins, and (iv) expecting full-year contributions in FY16E from capacity expansions which kicked in in July-15, and downstream services which will help improve net margins to 11.3%-13.6% in FY15-16E (from 10.8% -12.0%). The bump in earnings growth should allow SLP to trade on par with Technology sector’s PE of 15.5x, and above industrial packagers (SCIENTX and TGUAN) as it is a beneficiary of a strengthening USD (similar to the Tech Sector), and also as a strong exportdriven company. SLP enjoys better margins of 11.3%-13.6% in FY15-16E vs. industrial packagers at 3.5%-4.5%, and commands strong NP growth prospect of 75.8%-31.1% in FY15-16E vs. its Industrial packaging peers of -4.7%-12.9%. We are also rolling forward fully to FY16E on a revised EPS of 11.3 sen (from FY15-16E EPS of 8.8 sen), on a slightly higher targeted Fwd PER of 15.5x (from 14.5x) (refer to Table 2). This results in a 38.3% increase in our TP to RM1.76.
Maintain UNDERPERFORM on SCIENTX. While we are overall positive on the Plastics and Packaging sector, we reiterate our UNDERPERFORM call on SCIENTX (TP: RM6.09) as we expect the property market to be challenging in 2015, especially in Johor, where 93% of its landbank is located. Going forward, we think the property segment’s sales trend could slacken due to tighter lending policies and poor market sentiment. Near-term manufacturing margins are also likely to be compressed from 5.8% in FY14 to 5.0% in FY15E, until the company’s substantial capacity expansion is completed by mid-2016. With the soft near-term outlook on both its operating sectors, we maintain our UNDERPERFORM call even after upgrading our SoP-based TP to RM6.09 (from RM5.79) on a higher manufacturing segment applied PE of 12x (from 11x) as we switch over our valuation basis to a 20% discount on the Technology sector, in line with the Plastics sector’s valuation. We think the discount is justified by SCIENTX’s lower earnings growth potential, lower margins and higher borrowing cost risk on its USD-denominated debt.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Plastics sector because: (i) the sector is a positive beneficiary of stronger USD and robust export demand, (ii) growing production capacity serves as a potential earnings catalyst, (iii) the stable cost outlook should ensure sustainable margins going forward. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM call on SLP (New TP: RM1.76; Old TP: RM1.27) and TGUAN (New TP: RM2.70; Old TP: RM2.45), and maintain our UNDERPERFORM call on SCIENTX (New TP: RM6.09; Old TP: RM5.79).
Source: Kenanga Research - 2 Jul 2015