2015年7月9日星期四

5101 EVERGRN Rm1.68 加码

A)Evergreen Fibreboard - Improving Earnings Visibility

Date: 08/07/2015

Source	:	HLG
Stock	:	EVERGRN	Price Target	:	2.15	\|	Price Call	:	BUY
			Last Price	:	1.70	\|	Upside/Downside	:	+0.45 (26.47%)

Highlights

Evergreen’s share price has appreciated by 20.7% since early-Jul (outperforming the index by 20.4%-pts and surpassed our TP of RM1.59), we believe the strong share price performance was due to stronger US$ (against the RM) and declining crude oil price (which are both positive to Evergreen’s earnings).

In our view, Evergreen’s valuation remains commendable despite the recent strong share price performance, as: (1) MYR will remain under pressure on the back of several issues (namely global monetary policy divergence, low commodity prices, and unresolved political glitches); and (2) Prices of key inputs, namely rubber log wood and glue (which in turn is derived from methanol and urea) remain on downtrend (see Figures 1 & 2), and these are supportive of Evergreen’s earnings.

MYR and lower key input prices aside, we note that management’s continuous efforts to further improve Evergreen’s output and cost efficiencies, and diversifying its product range will help drive its earnings higher.

Given the improving earnings visibility and decent balance sheet (with net gearing of less than 0.3x as at 31 Mar 2015), we do not discount the possibility of Evergreen resuming paying dividends by 2016 (although management remains tight lipped on such possibility).

Risks

Escalating raw material and labour costs;
Slower-than-expected demand for MDF;
Fluctuating foreign currency movement (in particularly the US$); and
Slower-than-expected turnaround at the particleboard operations.

Forecasts

FY15-17 net profit forecasts raised by 6.4-12.9% to RM78.7m, RM100.3m and RM103m respectively, largely to account for: (1) A higher US$:RM assumption of RM3.60/US$ (vs. RM3.50/US$ previously); and (2) Slightly lower raw material cost assumptions.

Rating

BUY

Positives

(1) A beneficiary of strong US$ and low oil price; (2) Healthy balance sheet; and (3) Rubber plantation land bank value has yet to be reflected in current share price valuation.

Valuation

TP lifted by 35.2% to RM2.15, to reflect: (1) Higher net profit forecasts; (2) The roll forward of our valuation base year (from average 2015-2016 to 2016); and (3) Higher target P/E of 11x (from 10x previous), given Evergreen’s improving earnings visibility. We note that our higher target P/E of 11x is still at 19.5% discount to Vanachai Group’s 2016 P/E of 13.5x.
Maintain BUY recommendation.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 8 Jul 2015

買進券商心頭好．提高產量成本效益常青纖維板估值仍佳

財經股市8 Jul 2015 23:00

◆券商：豐隆投銀研究

◆合理價：2.15令吉

常青纖維板（EVERGRN，5101，主要板工業）股價月初至今已上漲20.7%，但公司估值仍佳，除了匯率走勢和低原產品價格利好，管理層也積極改善產量和成本效率，多元化產品類別來推高盈利表現。

　儘管近期股價表現強勁，該公司估值仍受看好，主要因令吉在各種因素影響下仍受壓，主要原料如木材和漿糊價格都呈下跌趨勢，有利公司盈利表現。

　如果撇開令吉和主要原料價格低迷因素，常青纖維板管理層也極力改善公司產量和成本效益，並多元化產品類別來提振盈利成長。

　基于該公司盈利可見度改善，加上資產負債表良好，截至3月底淨負債率為低于0.3倍，因此不排除將在今年恢復派發股息，但常青纖維板管理層對此可能性仍守口如瓶。

　我們將常青纖維板2015至2017財年淨利預計上修6.4%到12.9%之間，分別達7870萬令吉、1億30萬令吉和1億300萬令吉。這是以1美元兌3.60令吉，以及下修原料成本預測所得。

　同時，我們將合理價上修35.2%至2.15令吉，以反映較高淨利預測等因素。

　常青纖維板週三（8日）以1.60令吉開市，休市報1.64令吉，起1仙；閉市掛1.61令吉，跌2仙，成交量795萬9200股。http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/636405

C)长青纤维板估值仍诱人

财经

股市

行家论股

2015-07-09 10:59

目标价：2.15令吉

投資啟示錄

0回應

撰文者富蘭克林證券投顧

富蘭克林國民理財錢進趨勢瀏覽數：200+2015-07-08 贊助

+A
-A

西方有希臘債務事件，東方有陸股引發一波連鎖性的下修壓力，東西夾擊，全球股債市臉色慘澹…。其實類似的市場情節時不時的上演，投資人身為其中一個角色，除了作中學、學中作之外，更重要的是鍛鍊忍功，因為無人能預測市場的下一秒，作好中長期奮戰的準備方是上策。

忍功一：不入虎穴焉得虎子

比起2008年金融海嘯，當前全球金融市場在各主要政府祭出多重經濟猛藥強力整頓之後，不僅體質逐漸改善，抵抗力也提高許多。像國際貨幣基金（IMF）近日出具的報告中羅列了31項金融體系問題，但也不諱言指出美國目前的金融體系與金融海嘯前相比已經比較安全。

其實全球股市第二季以來回檔，多少已化解股價昂貴且技術面過熱的疑慮，目前股價淨值比仍低於長期平均水準，檢視全球景氣領先指標之一的製造業指數（註），歐元區、美國與中國仍位處擴張點50之上，其中受惠新訂單上揚，美國製造業指數攀升至五個月高點，法國也出現去年四月來重返擴張的表現。

可預期在景氣基本面支撐下，全球股市中長線多頭格局不變，當前的短線震盪提供空手者進場加碼的機會，看好美國、歐洲及亞洲中小型股票基金，積極者可搭配印度或美國科技產業型基金。

忍功二：退一步海闊天空

如果是屬於穩健偏向保守的投資個性或還是對於眼下的大幅震盪整理感到心有餘悸的投資人，也先不要心生放棄，原因是廣大的金融市場中，還是不乏優質的標的，稍加檢視手中的資產配置，不妨減持一些風險較高、略偏積極的部位，放大投資的範圍格局，有助於進一步把安心轉化為信心。

放眼接下來的市場變化，不外乎將持續聚焦希臘與聯準會升息等議題，股市震盪難免，高息資產配置不可或缺，就景氣回升及評價面角度，歐美日等核心工業國家的公債不具投資價值，建議投資人可藉由側重短天期債的全球總報酬債券型基金、新興國家債券型基金，或是涵蓋高收益債與高股利股票的美國平衡型基金，兼顧控管風險與爭取較高收益的雙重目標。

釐清市場變數投資風雨仍有信心

觀察希臘債務問題，不同於2008年雷曼兄弟事件涉及槓桿操作且投資人遍布全球，目前希臘公債主要是由歐元區國家、國際貨幣基金與歐洲央行等機構持有，銀行業實際曝險有限，如果全球經濟因希臘擔憂而放緩，歐洲央行可能進一步擴大購債規模（QE），聯準會也可能延後升息，有助發揮穩定信心與刺激經濟的效果，可望收斂股市下檔風險。

再看近期下修壓力沉重的陸股，健全的資本市場對於中國的經濟轉型有重要意義，中國政府為避免經濟硬著陸甚至引發經濟崩盤的信心危機，勢必推出更多強力的救市措施，儘管一時不見得能立即扭轉市場下跌趨勢，但或多或少有助於緩解市場恐慌情緒，在高槓桿投資者出場、系統性風險釋放後，市場才有望迎來反彈行情。

註：資料來源彭博資訊，取美國ISM製造業、中國官方製造業指數、歐元區Markit採購經理人指數，高於50代表景氣擴張，富蘭克林證券投顧整理（2015/7/8）。

网友分享--For an idea of how high and how long Evergreen's potential share price can further rise,consider this: The current bull market started in march 2009 and it is already more than 6 years old. However Evergreen's share price had started falling from its record high of rm 2.16 in 2007 until it bottomed out below rm0.50 in December 2014 i.e. about 6 years of decline.Its share price started rebounding in January 2015 until today for 6 months. Thus Evergreen's bull run is about 6 months old as compared to the global stock market bull run of 6 years.This implies that the general stock market is already fully or over valued in an aging bull market.Evergreen,being a significant laggard is seeing a profit turnaround and is now being recognised as under valued in comparison to the whole stock market. No wonder some investment funds are pouring into Evergreen now, especially when it is still trading below its NTA per share. You can say that it is one of the rare jewels left in an aging bull market !

个人浅见;好几年前的5095 hevea 因遇行业不景气,扩展过快,当时差点破产,印象中股价下降至rm0.20多

,之后公司重整经几年发展至今,业务己上了轨道,前景很好,于10-7-2015公司股价站在rm3.67 ,当年買入者己丰收了.
回头来看5101evergrn的情况有些相似,股价去年有过rm0.47 ,公司在业绩持续改善下,
股价也回升到10-7-2015的rm1.69 ,公司历史高位是rm2.16 ,若往后的净利向好(目前这行业具备了种种利好),
想信要突破这个股位不难,且看公司改写历史吧,终究evergrn过去6年的牛市都在沉睡着,現在是时候奋起了.
希望你的眼光看到幸福的未来.投资快乐.

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