余光成浅谈投资: 5160 Homeritz Corporation

2015年7月1日星期三

Date: 02/06/2015

Homeritz had on 1 June 2015 acqui red the remaining 35% of Embrace Industries Sdn Bhd. (“E ISB”) for RM12.17m cash. This will make EISB a wholly-owned subsidiary.
The principal activity of EISB is to design, manufacture and the sale of metal frames for dining chairs as well as metal based upholstered furniture and furniture parts.
The Acquisition will allow Homeritz to consolidate all revenue and profit of EISB which in turn, contribute positively to the earnings of the Group as a whole in future.

We are positive on the acquisition as the purchase consideration translates to price of 3x P/E vis-à-vis the group’s pre-acquisition P/E of 11x. It would result in 17% increase in Profit After Tax and 21% CAGR growth in the group’s PATAMI from FY14 to FYE16 (vs. 14% before acquisition).
The group’s FY15 net cash will reduce to RM52m from RM65m. Balance sheet remained healthy as post acquisition cash is equivalent to 18.6% of market price.

FY15-16 forecasts raised by 3%-18.5% to reflect positive impact of the acquisition. FY15 upward adjustment minimal given that it will only impact earnings by 2 months.

Maintain BUY, TP: RM1.82 (+33% upside)
Posi tives: 1) the group could benefit from strong USD; (2) its revenue and PATAMI are expected to grow at CAGR of 8% and 21% respectively from FY14 to FYE16; (3) forecasted FY15 net cash per share of 25.5 sen; and (4) still attractive FY15E DY of 3.7%, based on 40% payout ratio.

Negatives

: USD weakness; high raw material prices; high labour costs; unexpected economic downturn; and production or operational risks.

Post earnings upgrade, we raise our TP from RM1.54 to RM1.82 based on unchanged 10x CY16 P/E (as the acquisition would increase CY16F adjusted FD EPS to 18.25 sen vs. 15.37 sen).
Homeritz had proposed a bonus issue (1 for 2 basis) and free warrants (1 for 4 basis). The bonus shares will not be entitled for the free warrants. The proposals announced are expected to be completed by 3QFY15.
Post-bonus issue, our TP would be adjusted from RM1.82 to RM1.21 while share price will adjust from RM1.37 to RM0.91.

个人估算，
3-7-2015 除权，现价位rm1.50 ,若维持此价,红股后价位为rm1.00
从warrant转换价rm0.92 看,warrant上市最低都有rm0.20吧,
7月底的美丽业绩和股息会是支撑股价,目前时候还是进这种出口股安全.
供参考.