★【組合】PWROOT：回歸組合的老朋友 | 股海無涯
Author: 股海無涯 | Publish date: Fri, 17 Oct 10:59
PWROOT 曾經是虛擬組合一員， 當初和UTDLPT一起賣出，空出現金買進SCIENTX。也算賺了一點小錢。
當初買進， 從$1.95 買到 $1.90，1.83， 1.78， 然後在2.21賣出。
賣出後PWROOT依然在我的WATCHLIST 裡面觀察著。
這個星期突然從1.87 跌至 1.45.
15 Oct, 在$1.50的時候， 重新買進了5000股
PWROOT曾經是組合的一員， 對公司有一定了解。所以買入決定做的也快。
只是簡單問了自己幾個問題：
1. 有什麼問題會嚴重影響公司盈利的事件可能發生？
暫時沒發覺， GST的影響不覺得會非常大。PE12， 不算一個太差的數字。
2. 股息如何？
如果派息維持現狀（FY2014: 9cents), $1.50 的買入價DY達到6%。 PWROOT上市以來一直保持每2個季度派息的歷史， 派息率高達盈利的70-80%。
3. 財務狀況?
凈現金公司， long&short term debt $22m, Cash&Fixed Deposit $67m. 現金充足， 基本苦難時期也不會有太大風險。
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| 2014 Share Buy Back record |
14,15號公司以1.45-1.48價格回購+547k股, Treasury Shares 達到1，022k股。
不失為個好消息。
再看看公司董事增加持股的記錄：
除了ESOS之外， 可以看到大股東不斷增加持股， 賣出原因可以很多， 可是長期不斷在公開市場增加持股，原因相對單純， 顯示了股東對公司價值的信心。
小結
AH HUAT白咖啡是一個成功的營銷案例， 是否能夠繼續提升還有待觀察。5000股不算太大的投資， 已做了短期內業績持平的心裡準備。
賣出點：要看下市場情緒， 短期（3個月）內如果飆升回到$2.00。 考慮賣出。
加碼點：如果季度報告成績不錯，PE10-12有閒錢會考慮適量加碼
市場在大出血的時候出手買股， 長期的派息記錄是給自己的些許保護， 如果股價繼續跌， 還有股息可以維持到陰霾之後。
後話
瞬間大跌原因為何？ 成長放緩？ ESOS賣股套利？還是單純市場情緒?
回歸笨鳥的投資方法， 既然沒能力猜測市場， 與其隨波逐流， 不如按自己的理解與判斷來決定買進與否。現在這個價格加上常年穩定的股息， 就算住上套房還有租金（股息）可以收， 不算太糟。
卍 個人投資記錄 買賣盈虧自負 分析若有錯誤 勞煩提點指出
2)转自L.C.CHONG兄之精选--
PWROOT – Fundamental Analysis (24 Sept 2014) - L.C.CHONG
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 24 Sep 23:39
PWROOT Analysis:-
Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ruhUK6
My View:-
- Fair Value:
– 10-Y DCF:
– Base scenario (14%): 2.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Good scenario (18%): 2.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Bad scenario (10%): 2.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Growth rate applied in Reverse DCF to reach the current stock price (1.95): 9%
– The historical growth rate of FCF is 17%, so the assumption of 14% growth rate for the next 10 years may be valid.
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.129) – Fair value 2.21 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.126) – Fair value 2.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.137) – Fair value 2.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.145) – Fair value 2.48 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.95): 0.114
- This company is stable, but hardly to expect high growth in long term. May be a good stock to accumulate during economy recession.
- In my opinion, PWROOT’s ready-to-drink products are not really healthy. I think in long term, people will be more health conscious and consumption of these products may be reduced gradually. Nevertheless, this won’t happen in near future.
- I will place this stock in Watch List and do comparison with its competitors.
Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (30 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1697517
My View:-
- Fair Value:
– 10-Y DCF:
– Base scenario (14%): 2.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Good scenario (18%): 2.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Bad scenario (10%): 2.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Growth rate applied in Reverse DCF to reach the current stock price (1.95): 9%
– The historical growth rate of FCF is 17%, so the assumption of 14% growth rate for the next 10 years may be valid.
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.129) – Fair value 2.21 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.126) – Fair value 2.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.137) – Fair value 2.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.145) – Fair value 2.48 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.95): 0.114
- This company is stable, but hardly to expect high growth in long term. May be a good stock to accumulate during economy recession.
- In my opinion, PWROOT’s ready-to-drink products are not really healthy. I think in long term, people will be more health conscious and consumption of these products may be reduced gradually. Nevertheless, this won’t happen in near future.
- I will place this stock in Watch List and do comparison with its competitors.
Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (30 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1697517
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