2014年11月2日星期日

7106 supermax 速伯玛 Rm 2.37 进场,丰衣足食.---

原因--
1)Gas Malaysia in an announcement to Bursa Malaysia informed that the Government has 
approved the natural gas tariff revision for non-power sector in Peninsular Malaysia with effect from 1 November 2014 by an average of a mere 2.3%. Ceteris paribus, assuming “no-cost pass through”, an average 2.3% increase in natural gas tariff is expected to hit rubber gloves players’ earnings by <1%. However, we are not overly concerned since rubber gloves players generally are able to pass on the cost increase judging from past experience in previous electricity and natural gas tariff hikes back in end-2013 and lately in May 2014, respectively. Hence, we are maintaining our OVERWEIGHT rating for the rubber gloves sector. After three quarters in the lull, we believe rubber glove players under our coverage are poised for re-rating. The positive outlook is driven by commercial production of new capacity expected to come on-stream by 4QCY14, which will drive earnings growth. We believe persistent concerns over falling demand, fears of oversupply and price wars are overplayed, which were addressed in our past two quarterly strategy reports. Our TOP PICK is SUPERMX. We like Supermax for: (i) re-rating catalyst upon commercial production of its new plant expected by end Dec (one line has started production) which dispelled market skepticism of persistent delays in the new plant, (ii) steep 40% discount to the sector average, and (iii) being a beneficiary of the strengthening USD against RM. We also have OUTPERFORM calls for KOSSAN (TP: RM5.23) and HARTALEGA (TP: RM7.48).
Average 2.3% tariff hike for natural gas for non-power sector. Gas Malaysia Berhad in an announcement to Bursa Malaysia informed that the Government has approved the natural gas tariff revision for non-power sector in the Peninsular Malaysia taking effect from 1 November 2014 by an average of 2.3%. This is the second increase for natural gas hike within a year, Recall, the previous increase was back in May 2014 with an average of 20%. Ceteris paribus, assuming no cost pass-through, the hike in natural gas tariff is expected to hit rubber gloves players’ earnings by <1%. However, we are not overly concerned since rubber gloves players generally are able
to pass on the cost increase judging from previous electricity and natural gas tariff hikes. Fuel accounts for an average 10% of production cost of which natural gas accounts for an average of 7%. Based on our back-of-envelope calculation, players need to raise average selling price by 0.5%. However, we are not overly concerned since rubber gloves players generally are able to pass on the cost increase judging from past experience in previous electricity and natural gas tariff hikes back in end-2013 and lately in May 2014, respectively.
Slower-than-expected ramp up in new supply is positive to industry. In the past two quarters, we have highlighted that concerns of industry oversupply had been overplayed. In fact, in-coming new supply has been slower-than-expected. 9MYTD, only Kossan and Top Glove have started commissioning their new plants gradually between 2QCY14 and 3QCY14, albeit at a slower pace. As such the slower-than-expected ramp up in new production capacity further reinforced our positive outlook on the sector with lesser concerns on competitive pressure and oversupply issues. Kossan’s scheduled new 5b pieces capacity has been delayed from March to end-Aug 2014. The remaining Plant (2) and (3) with a total of 12 lines are expected to be operational in September and November (net increase in new capacity for 2014 is 2.0bn pieces compared to our earlier forecast of 2.5b pieces). Supermax’s new plant with an estimated 5.4b pieces has been delayed and can only start commercial operations by 4Q14 instead of 3Q14 with an estimated net incremental increase of 1.5b pieces (earlier projection was 2.5b pieces). Top Glove is scalling back and only expects 2b pieces new capacity by end-2014. Hartalega’s NGC plant is only expected to commence commercial production by 4Q14 with a net incremental increase of 2.0b pieces by end-2014.
Margins to remain stable, raw material prices easing, solid demand and medium-term tight supply for nitrile gloves. We expect margins and earnings of gloves players to sustain in subsequent quarters due to: (i) sustained high demand for nitrile gloves, (ii) easing of both input raw material nitrile and latex prices, and (iii) capacity constraint for nitrile gloves, which could put upwards pressure on ASPs. Over the last two quarters, the downtrend in average selling prices (ASPs) was not entirely due to price competition but on lower raw material prices as well. From our channel checks, players are generally facing full capacity constraint and have to turn away customers taking advantage of the lower ASPs which resulted in overwhelming demand situation.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our TOP PICK is SUPERMX with an OUTPERFORM and TP of RM3.23. We like SUPERMX for: (i) re-rating catalyst upon commercial production of its new plant expected by end Dec (one line has started production) which dispelled market skepticism of persistent delays in the new plant, (ii) a steep 40% discount to sector average, and (iii) beneficiary of the strengthening USD against the RM. We also have OUTPERFORM calls for KOSSAN (TP: RM5.23) and HART (TP: RM7.48).
自-http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/25964.jsp
2)Insider Asia’s Stock Pick: Supermax Corp


Supermax corp bhd
We had previously highlighted the gloves industry as one of the beneficiaries, as countries struggle to contain the spread of Ebola (refer to The Edge Financial Daily dated October 15, 2014). Demand for protective gear including gloves will rise substantially should the outbreak turns into a global epidemic. Our first pick was Kossan Rubber Industries ( Financial Dashboard), whose share price has since risen by 4.6%.

Trading at a PE ratio of 13.5 times, Supermax is another value proposition for investors looking for an exposure in this sector. As a comparison, Kossan and Top Glove are currently trading at PE multiples of 20.1 times and 17.2 times, respectively.

Supermax is one of the world’s largest rubber gloves makers. Production capacity for nitrile gloves will surge by 127.8% to 12.3 billion pieces per annum by end-2014. Once commissioned, nitrile gloves will form 53% of its total installed capacity. The balance comes from natural rubber gloves.

More expansions are on the drawing board, spanning the next 10 years. This includes the Glove City Project, consisting of 6 manufacturing plants with an installed capacity of 4.1 billion pieces each. Construction is targeted to start in 2015. Additionally, the proposed 100-acre Supermax Business Park will house its Integrated Glove Manufacturing Complex (IGMC) to produce nitrile gloves. The company plans to invest RM700-750 million to build 40 production lines over two phases with total production capacity of 15.5 billion pieces per year.

Supermax has fairly decent fundamentals. The company’s ROE averaged 14.4% for the past three years, while net gearing declined from 29.4% to 17.3% during the same period. Plus, profit margin should improve once the about-to-be completed additional capacity for higher-value nitrile gloves comes onstream.

The company has a minimum 30% dividend payout policy. Dividends totalled 5 sen per share in 2013, translating into a net yield of 2.2%. 
3)
美国出新招来对付ebola,其中手套要穿两个。
1. Gloves

ORIGINAL C.D.C. GUIDANCE The gloves come off first. The rest of the disrobing process can be done with bare hands. A bare hand can safely pull off a glove by slipping it under the wristband.

THE HOSPITALSWorkers at some hospitals use two pairs of gloves so that the inner pair remains on during the disrobing process.
6)
伊波拉疫情扩散 手套股逆市攀高
财经新闻 财经  2014-10-14 08:34


(吉隆坡13日讯)伊波拉病毒扩展至欧美引发全球关注,或再推高胶手套需求,因而激励手套股今日继续扬升。
手套股今日表现活跃,并以高产尼品工业(KOSSAN,7153,主板工业产品股)和速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106,主板工业产品股)领涨。
闭市时,高产尼品工业以4.52令吉报收,上扬17仙或4%,交易量有281万4700万股;速柏玛则报2.36令吉,全日上扬6仙或2.61%,共有486万5300股易手。
尽管如此,达证券分析员认为手套股上扬,或是技术回弹。
“上周手套股表现逊色,所以现在回弹是合理的。我不认为,美国发现伊波拉传染病例是推高股价的主因。”
他说,虽伊波拉病毒引起全球关注,但不及2011年的非典病毒严重,所以手套需求料不会显著增加。
国内其他主他主要业者,还包括顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工业产品股),上扬5仙或1.04%,写4.88令吉,成交量23万8100股;贺特佳(HARTA,5168,主板工业产品股)则跌7仙或1.01%,报6.83令吉,全日26万4500股易手。

7)財政預算案迴響.預算案數獎掖 加強橡膠業競爭力
*拿督斯里鄭金森 速柏瑪(SUPERMX,7106,主要板工業)董事經理

我為政府終于意識到橡膠製品業務的重要性,感到高興。

 膠手套領域正走向下一個精彩成長階段,包括自動化生產。預算案提及的數項獎掖計劃,將加速加強我國膠手套和其他橡膠產品生產商的全球競爭力。

 第一、為推廣新市場撥款3億令吉。這確實可協助膠手套領域進軍新市場,希望能為出口商有效實施推廣新市場計劃;

 第二、資本遞減改善自動化勞動工業。自動化資本遞減的首要400萬令吉的200%太低,對橡膠製品並不足夠,尤其膠手套領域,冀政府實施200%自動化資本遞減,用在自動化生產,而不是為自動化資本遞減設頂限。

 另外,預算案注重在發展人力資本與企業家。大馬大量人才流出國之一,我國企業與公司面對的最大挑戰仍然是人才流失,希望政策制定者可實施,應對人才流失的政策。
8)美元走高对公司有利,个人给予目标价Rm2.80.取全年eps=16 sen,pe=18 倍,
合理价 =rm 2.88 ,供参考,进出自负.
9)http://klse0.i3investor.com/blogs/undervalue/58377.jsp
10)一股作气:伊波拉肆虐 速柏玛估值诱人
一股作气 财经周刊 投资观点  2014-08-18 13:02
http://www.nanyang.com/node/642895

西非爆发的伊波拉病毒疫情一旦失控,将激励手套需求大增。

其中,速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106,主板工业产品股)是国内4大手套业者中,估值较为吸引的股项。

未来大计方面,该集团将落实计划已久的“手套城”,另也规划打造名为“速柏玛商业园”的综合手套制造中心。

自西非爆发伊波拉疫情以来,至今已夺走超过千人性命,世界卫生组织宣布,该疫情已成为全球公共卫生紧急事态。

虽然伊波拉疫情是通过血液和其他体液传播,并不如空气传播的病疫般轻易传染,但传播速度却很快。

一旦伊波拉疫情恶化并失控,甚至蔓延至他国,预计手套的需求量将因此而大增,进而消除手套产能过剩的忧虑。

兴业投资研究依据2009年至2010年爆发A(H1N1)型流感时期,手套制造业者的税前盈利赚幅突增。

其中,速柏玛的税前盈利赚幅更是从2008年的6.4%,增加将近两倍至18.8%;赚幅仅次于贺特佳(HARTA,5168,主板工业产品股)。



或重演流感期亮眼业绩

若事件的进展不幸恶化和失控,兴业投资研究预见,业者的税前盈利赚幅将重演A型流感期间的亮眼表现。

同时,在需求急速高涨下,手套制造业者也具有能力,将成本上涨的压力轻易地转嫁给客户。国内4大手套制造业者当中,无论是从本益比或股价净值比而言,速柏玛的估值最为吸引,比同业来得低。

不仅如此,兴业投资研究预计速柏玛的周息率达3.3%,也高于其他3大业者(介于2.4%至3.1%)。

最新一季的表现,速柏玛在2014年首季的营业额按年挫27%至2亿3227万令吉,而净利也跌18%至2660万令吉。首季业绩逊色是因厂房火灾而导致产能受到影响,以及市场环境充满强烈的竞争所致,特别是丁腈手套市场。



手套城商业园双管齐下

随着该集团在巴生的两座厂房在今年完工和投入运作,未来的宏图大计包括启动“手套城”的厂房兴建计划,另也打造一个“速柏玛商业园”。

手套城将涵盖6座厂房,首座厂房的兴建工作放眼在2015年动工,而整个计划预计费时10年至12年。

根据计划,手套城的每座厂房的产能为41亿只手套,一旦竣工和全面投入运作,总产能达246亿只手套。

另外,该集团计划在双文丹兴建综合手套制造中心,名为“速柏玛商业园”,并分两阶段进行发展。

首阶段的发展计划从2014年至2018年,将安装28条生产线,总产能达108亿5000万只手套。

至于第二阶段的发展,则将从2019年至2022年,计有12条生产线,产能为46亿5000万只手套。

该集团积极地扩展计划主要是应对目前和未来市场对丁腈手套的增长需求,并采用最新的科技生产手套。

然而,该股潜在的投资风险包括原材料成本的上涨以及转嫁能力、美元兑令吉的走势、扩展计划的展延,以及过度扩展导致产能过剩等因素。