2015年11月2日星期一

9261 gadang 嘉登控股 rm1.79 買入

--公司于8月的Q1, 2015 业绩很好,赚了 2086万,Eps=rm0.096sen ,nta=rm1.87 
  估计全  eps=RM0.30sen ,pe=8倍,股价=rm 2.40
  现RM1.79只是PE=5.9倍 在交易,明显被低估了.
--公司诚信度是很好的,因此数据造假应该不会发生在这公司上。
  gadang 绝对是投资者的首选股,公司的潜在价值好,成长佳,将会是一只黑马股。
---买股看公司的未来是否成长,净利多少等,当可见度变得清晰,投资风险相对变小,
   股价也将呈现上升势头,gadang会是不错的选择。
---公司的赚副有14% .
--于31-08-2015gadang的债务有188m,公司有现 255m,净现金有67m
---于30-08-2015 的30大股东已持有57.82%(130263张),
    市场流通量只有95028张(42.18%),总股数为225291張.大股东己持 44.99%.
---所有利好都在gadang这里,2016年分发bonus,warrant或split机会大,趁低进入.
---23-12-2015 可得50元股息,先丰衣了,足食等亮丽业绩与获取工程推动了.
参考,进出自负!



1)

淨利亮眼‧嘉登引購興

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Mon, 2 Nov 2015, 10:06 AM

2015-10-31 11:34
  •  
嘉登控股(GADANG,9261,主板建筑組)淨利高漲引起市場興趣,週五股價一度漲至1令吉67仙。

嘉登控股在29日宣佈最新一季後週五一開市立即走揚,一度漲10仙至1令吉67仙,全天收在1令吉64仙,升4.38%或7仙。

根據財報,該公司因產業盈利進賬而導致2016財政年淨利按年成長116.4%至2千零90萬令吉。
營業額也成長12%至1億4千940萬令吉。
艾畢斯研究預測,2016財政年將會是嘉登控股創最高盈利的一年,預計淨利將按年成長13.82%,但在2017財政年時將回跌,主要因建築業務訂單預測下修所致。
艾畢斯研究建議投資者“買入”嘉登控股,目標價為1令吉98仙。(星洲日報/財經)

2)

[转贴] 【GADANG (9261)】 嘉 许卓越的表现,登 上亮丽的舞台 ! By Zeff Tan

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Fri, 30 Oct 2015, 10:06 AM 

 GADANG(嘉登,9261,主版-建筑)的前身是LAISING Holding, 成立于1993年超级大牛市的年代,并在1994年10月挂牌马股secondary board里的建筑版. 直至1997年,丹斯里拿督郭安接管了这家公司,然后将公司易名成为GADANG Holding, 经过了98年的风暴和一些风雨路洗涤后,终于在2007年末晋升主板。
 GADANG的业务算是多元化,公司旗下总共有5个分支 – 建筑,机械电子工程,房地产开发,机械电子工程,水务管理,和棕油种植。然而,身为一家建筑起家的公司,主要的业务当然离不开土木工程,所以其建筑臂膀所贡献的营业额占了FY15的76.4%, 并贡献了高达58.3%的税前盈利。其后紧随其后的是房地产开发(营业额占了FY15的20%) ,水务(营业额占了FY15的20%)和微不足道的油棕种植业。
 FY15 相比FY14 营业额增长了大约8%, 但是其税后盈利却扩大了整整38%,这说明了gadang的profit margin 进步了许多。
打开季报,发现gadang建筑业务的profit margin从FY14的7.4%成长到了10.9%,这是值得赞赏的,因为普遍上建筑行业的平均margin大约是8%-9%. 比较国内小型建筑同行如MITRA (profit margin:11% ) , PTARAS (profit margin:22% ), HSL(profit margin:11% ) , SYCAL (profit margin:5% ) , BPURI (profit margin: <1 o:p="">
“The overall improved margins were attributable to improved cost management and project implementation controls initiatives that resulted in higher cost efficiencies and productivity achieved.” 在年报里丹斯里是这么说的。
 建筑行业相当讲究现金流,一家现金管理稍欠妥当的建筑公司,很容易在“冬瓜豆腐”的降临下而关门大吉,98年的时候很多小型建筑公司和一些房产开发商就是因为周转不灵而大伤元气,有者甚至直接破产。有建筑背景的前辈提过,现金流之所以重要是因为很多小型建筑公司都是做sub-con,很多时候账目需要一段漫长的时间才能从main-con处收回。基于这个原因,建筑公司的现金流必须要强,要不然无法支付工人的工资和偿还供应商债务。

从刚发布的年报里看到,gadang截至目前为止手上握的现金有RM 110m,放进定存的则有RM 122m , 总银行借贷高达RM193m ,所以处于净现金的状态。在云云建筑公司里要找到净现金公司,是少有的。
目前公司大部分的合约都已经呈交了,比如上个月9月30日递交给PETRONAS的RAPID2 ,和在7月呈交于卫生部的HOSPITAL SHAH ALAM,这些合约的酬劳应该都会慢慢在接下来的几个季度里反应出来。 很多人都担心GADANG手上不够合约,截至目前为止,它手上握有RM803m 的合约,丹斯里说这足以让公司忙碌两年,再加上还未颁布的MRT2和LRT3的工程,相信以GADANG的良好合约呈交记录要获得新合约并不难。
房产开发方面公司则有RM189m的未进账营业额(unbilled sales). GADANG房产方面比较诱人的项目莫过于位于柔佛州CAPITAL CITY了。此项目是和一间叫hatten group的公司联营开发,这个计划可以为GADANG在未来的3年里带来大约RM200m的盈利哦! 也就是说在接下来的每一年平均一年可以获得RM60m的profit, 而gadang目前的全年全盈利也刚好达到RM58m而已 ,由此可见FY16 的盈利很有可能会翻一倍 !
丹斯里拿督郭安很注重持续性收入,所以gadang有了水务管理和种植业,但是这两个部门其实也不用多说了,因为贡献不大,水务贡献RM2m全年盈利,但是种植业目前还在亏损中,所幸小数额亏损而已。值得一提的是,水务管理业主要是在印尼经营,今年也收够了一家新的公司60%股权,丹斯里说FY17才会开始做出贡献。
派息方面公司没有固定的派息政策,在FY15共派出了20%的盈利作为股息。
有趣的是gadang开始在2012年派息,从刚开始的2cent 到 3cent, 4cent ,今年给5cent,超漂亮的,以目前的价位(RM1.54)来衡量还有个3.2%的股息算是不错了.
从那几个fundamental 的指标来看,gadang的股价确实有点被低估了,目前以6倍的PE交易,如果以10倍的话它的潜在价值是RM2.50哦 !
根据JF APEX的research,他们用SUM OF PARTS (为多元化业务的公司采用此方法)来为gadang做估值,得出来的数目是RM1.98
横看直看,总觉得奇怪为什么这公司怎么会一直长期的备受市场低估呢?
管理层的展望:
-对建筑依然看好,因为有MRT,LRT和国油RAPID的项目
-对产业臂膀仍然看好因为有The Vyne 和Capital city这个奶牛计划
-种植 - (继续沉默)
-水务 - 平平稳稳
**在去年的AGM里有人问到关于corporate exercise, 据消息说丹斯里暗示2016年将会派发红股**
最后一个要提的也就是top30大股东,gadang之前的总股数为216m,加上上个月成熟的凭单转换后目前总股数225m。
乍看之下…..
第三大股东KWSP
第四大股东KWAP
第六大股东 神秘人物
第十三大股东LTH
有官联机构在内,相信gadang获得合约的路上又多了几条润滑剂了
-不是buy call, 没有target price,纯属发泄对gadang股价长期被打压的不满 !-
Zeff Tan
SHARIX
2个小时前GADANG业绩刚刚出炉,Harry就帮Zeff加一些料进来。yoy Eps进步了114%!!! 现在的PE 才5.27, 而且上个星期刚刚获得 375.13 million的合约。

盈利已经两个季度进步超过100%, 相信未来两个季度还会陆续有来。加上是Net cash company , 以及符合建筑股的主题, 是家非常有潜质的公司。
以上纯属分享,买卖请自负!
http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2015/10/1163gadang-9261-by-zeff-tan.html

3)
獲國油合約‧嘉登賺益加強2015-10-27 10:

(吉隆坡26日訊)嘉登控股(GADANG,9261,主板建筑組)接獲國家石油公司(Petronas)總值3億7千513萬令吉合約,分析員看好集團效率將強化賺益表現,上調今明財政年營業額目標。

艾畢斯研究指出,相關合約已超出2016財政年3億令吉新合約訂單目標,以5.5%淨賺益來看,預見整個合約將在2016至2018財政年帶來約2千零60萬令吉淨利貢獻。

“我們相信憑藉嘉登控股過去經驗及公司已在邊佳蘭部署機械設備(M&E)和勞工,相信集團低流動成本將帶來更高的賺益。”
為反映合約利多,該行上調嘉登控股2016和2017財政年營業額目標4%和18%,但維持“買進”和1令吉98仙目標價不變。

股價:1令吉50仙
總股本:2億3千511萬2千378股
市值:3億5千266萬8千567令吉
30天日均成交量:8萬8千股
最新季度營業額:1億7千零48萬令吉
最新季度盈虧:淨利2千455萬2千令吉
每股淨資產:1令吉76仙
本益比:5.55倍
周息率:3.42%
大股東:丹斯里郭安(30.68%)(星洲日報/財經)

4)
嘉登 国油合约可赚2060万
2015-10-27 11:02

目标价:1.98令吉
最新进展
嘉登(GADANG,9261,主板建筑股)宣布,获国家石油公司(Petronas)旗下的PRPC公用与设备私人有限公司,颁发边佳兰项目的土木和基建工程,合约价值3亿7513万令吉。
这项合约是由子公司嘉登工程(大马)私人有限公司于上周三(21日)获得,负责采购、建筑和营运边佳兰一项公用设备配套项目的土木和基建工程。
合约期限为期31个月,从获得合约日期起生效。
行家建议
这项新合约,远远超越了我们2016财年新合约预估的25%,同时,正面看待这项合约估计在2016至2018财年,可捎来2060万令吉的净利。
该公司目前的订单企于6亿3415万令吉,足以支撑超过1年的营业额可见度,或是2015财年营业额的1.07倍。
在纳入该项新合约后,我们上修2016和2017财年财测4%和18%。
展望未来,相信该公司在进行中的建筑项目,以及产业旗舰工程销售活动持续的支撑下,能维持在增长的轨道。


分析: JF Apex 证券 


http://www.nanyang.com/node/730917?tid=462


5)

Gadang: A No-Brainer Bet? - Bursa Dummy

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Mon, 7 Sep 2015, 11:21 PM 


Monday, 7 September 2015 
Gadang was formerly known as Lai Sing Holdings Bhd which was incorporated in 1993 and listed in the second board of KLSE in 1994.
Current CEO Tan Sri Dato Kok Onn emerged as a major shareholder and took over the company's operation in 1997. The company's name was then changed to Gadang.
Gadang was transferred to main board in Dec 2007.
Gadang has 4 business segments which are
  • construction
  • property 
  • utility
  • plantation
Its revenue and PATAMI grow for 4 consecutive years to a record high of RM588mil & RM58.8mil respectively in FY15 which ends on 31 May 2015.
The main growth driver is no doubt its construction and property divisions.

Construction
Construction is the bread and butter of Gadang. It contributes 76% of revenue and 58% PBT for the group in FY15.

The table below shows recent contracts secured by Gadang.
DateProjectsValueCompletion
Jun14RAPID phase 2RM 350milSep15
May14Cyberjaya Housing ProjectRM 1.055bil2023
Oct12RAPID phase 1RM 312.8milDec13
Jul12MRT2 Kota Damansara-Dataran SunwayRM 863.4mil
Oct11Hospital Shah AlamRM 410.9mil24 months
Jun11MRT2 phase 1 Sg Buloh depotRM 23.9mil8 months
Jan10LCCT/KLIA runway (JV 70:30)RM 291.2milDec10
Feb08Hospital Rehabilitasi Cheras (JV 55:45)RM 341.8milMay10
Aug07LKSA package 1 (JV 50:50)RM 278.9milAug09
Its outstanding construction orders breached and stayed above RM1bil in FY12-FY14 thanks to the huge MRT2 jobs.
However, most jobs have been completed at the moment except the construction of MRT2 Kota Damansara - Dataran Sunway.

The Cyberjaya Housing Project is not included in the construction order book I guess, as it is regarded as a property development.
       MRT2 progress at Dataran Sunway, May15
Gadang does not get any new construction job since Jun14. Though the management expected only RM100mil construction contract in FY15, there is actually none.
Jobs that it is bidding for are mainly related to RAPID. So the slow down in Oil & Gas sector certainly does not do it a favour.
So, perhaps its outstanding construction jobs should be much lower than RM700mil after the completion of its RAPID phase 2 at the end of this month.
Property
Gadang's property division did not do so well in my opinion compared to many other property developers.
It develops small projects here and there over the years.
Current active projects should be The Vyne in Sg Besi, Bandar Puncak Sena (GDV RM300mil) in Kedah and PR1MA project mentioned earlier in Cyberjaya.
I don't think Bandar Puncak Sena can contribute significantly to Gadang but The Vyne seems to be a good project with a GDV of RM500mil.
       The Vyne
The Vyne which sits on a leasehold land Gadang acquired in 2010 for RM33mil, comprises 800 units high-end condominium in 5 blocks, which will be developed in 3 phases.
Phase 1 (Block A & B) has been launched around year 2013/14 and the construction of Black A has reached level 20 in May15.
Phase 2 (Block C & D) has also been launched probably last year but I'm not sure what is the latest sales status of these 2 phases.
According to an interview by MalayMailOnline published in Feb15, phase 1 & 2 of The Vyne were approximately 67% & 45% sold respectively, while phase 1A of Bandar Puncak Sena was 40% taken up.
The Vyne might be linked to an upcoming MRT station so it should get more interest from the market I guess.
Besides, Gadang has signed an agreement in May 2014 with government company Cyberview to jointly developed a PR1MA project known as Knowledge Workers Housing Project in Cyberjaya.
This is a huge project with GDV of RM1.055bil on a 109.3 acres land which should start in Q1 of 2015 and completed by Q2 of 2023.
It is expected to generate more than RM100mil revenue yearly to Gadang over a period of 8-9 years.
Phase 1 of this project has a GDV of RM150mil. However, I'm not sure how many shares Gadang has in this partnership.
       Capital City
The talking point of Gadang recently is about the development of Capital City in Tampoi, Johor.
It is not a secret that Gadang's profit in the next 2-3 years will very likely be very very good because of this.
Gadang contributed the land for this project while Hatten Group & Sunbuild Development will build and sell the properties.
The whole Capital City development has a GDV of RM1.8bil. It consists of a retail mall known as Capital 21 (RM1.3bil), office suites or SOHO (RM200mil) and hotel suites (RM300mil).
So far the retail mall units have been launched in Dec13 and construction has started since Apr14. It is targeted to be completed in year 2017.
Gadang will get paid according to the construction progress of the mall.
In short, Gadang is entitled to a maximum of RM324mil for the whole project, with maximum profit of around RM220mil.
For the mall alone, Gadang can potentially get RM301mil, or profit of around RM200mil, paid in 4 stages in 3 years time until 2017.
Gadang will get payment for office & hotel suites only when they are launched later. The entire development is to be completed in 66 months according to the contract.
Gadang should have enjoyed some profit from Capital City in its FY15. Besides the land cost and tax, I think there is no other significant cost that Gadang needs to bear for this project.

In the next 2-3 years, I estimate that Gadang should get around RM50-60mil net profit per year in average from this project alone.
The group's overall PATAMI in FY15 is RM58.8mil.
With the desire to grow its property division, Gadang has replenished its development landbank recently by acquiring:

  • 62.84 acres freehold land in Semenyih for RM95.8mil in 2015 (potential GDV >RM450mil)
  • 9.5 acres leasehold land in Taman Melawati KL for RM33.1mil in Jul14 (potential GDV RM505mil)
About its latest property unbilled sales, the only figure I can get is RM210mil in Nov14.
Utility
Gadang diversified into utility segment since 2005 by acquiring 100% of Singapore-based Asian Utilities Pte Ltd (AUPL) which has several water concessions in Indonesia.
In 2014, AUPL acquired 85% stake in PT Dewa Bangun Tirta (DBT) who has 25 years water treatment & supply concession starting from 2013 in Jawa Timur.
Yearly turnover of DBT is about Rp20bil (RM6mil).
Besides water supply, Gadang is also involved in hydropower generation in Indonesia by acquiring 60% of PT Ikhwan Mega Power (IMP) for RM3mil in 2014. 
IMP has a 15-year 9 megawatt hydropower generation concession. However, the facility is still under construction and is expected to be completed by 2016.
Upon full commissioning, IMP is expected to generate yearly revenue of about Rp56bil (RM17mil).
In Jan15, Gadang added another 4 megawatt hydropower generation concession by acquiring 80% of PT Hidronusa Rawan Energi.
Management expects the whole utility segment to contribute RM20mil revenue in FY2016.
Plantation
I think Gadang's CEO likes recurring income. That's why he diversified into oil palm plantation as well. 
Gadang acquired 5,181 acres of land in Ranau Sabah and planted it with oil palm trees in stages since 2009.
In 2015, trees planted in 2009 should have reached full maturity but too bad the CPO price is sluggish now.
Anyway, the plantation size is still small to make any meaningful contribution.

The management does not rule out further expansion of its plantation landbank in the future.
Overall, Gadang is a diversified group which depends on construction and property development.
Its construction division does not look too good at the moment with lack of contract award for the past one year.
Property division should do much better in FY16 with contribution from Capital City and The Vyne.
Earnings from utility segment should remain almost the same while plantation should see red again.
Gadang's PATAMI for FY15 is RM58.8mil. 
If we add in all the outstanding warrants which will expire in the end of this month, total shares will be 236mil.

So, Gadang's fully diluted EPS for FY15 will be about 25sen.

At current share price of RM1.18, it is trading at actual PE ratio of just 4.7x.

I think its PATAMI for FY16 will probably exceed RM70mil.

Its balance sheet and cash flow do not look bad either.

Any special reason why Gadang's share price is at RM1.18 now?

Is it because it is involved in property sector?

Anyway, what will Gadang do with the huge cash from Capital City land sale?
http://bursadummy.blogspot.my/2015/09/gadang-no-brainer-bet.html

6)转贴--来自夜月兄(谢谢他的功课)

MONDAY, 2 NOVEMBER 2015


斤经济较:Delay范例2 (Gadang)




自从上次用Topglovetest delay后,

斤经济较:Delay范例1 (Topglove)


我继续在寻找下一个例子,

结果就给我看到了Gadang



先讲一下为什么会看中gadang

第一 过去的业绩很美

我最喜欢的graph,

就是revenue  profit margin一起增加的。




第二最近三个quarters比起之前的美太多了。



第三 这种业绩竟然PE5点多。



第四 再加上最近因为budget 2016的关系,

有课题可以炒。



第五 未来有很多合约和来自Property sector unbilled revenue的保证。



第六 上个quarter业绩一出,股价往上跳空就大跌。

所以投资者会有所保留,

会先等一等没事后才敢买进,

这样就很好的制造了delay的效果。



那时我定下目标,

如果明天开盘股价上涨低于3%

我就买进,

结果开盘在1.63 

准准3点多%

所以我就买进,

想不到今天股价就反应了。



第二次的Delay范例成功。。。