令吉兑美元持续疲弱，且原料和运输成本维持在低水平，分析员看好长青纤维板
（EVERGRN，5101，主板工业产品股）的净利和股价展望。
联昌国际投行表示，由于橡胶木供应过剩，所以预计该原料价格将保持低迷。
此外，公司相信，未来1至2年，亚洲不会出现中密度纤维板（MDF）供应大量增加的现象
，这有利于定价。
不过，目前以美元定价的MDF产品，价格仍未回到2007年高峰水平，相比于当时的价格
，目前仍低15%至20%。
接下来，长青纤维板将会把更多焦点放在销售较高赚幅产品，如较薄MDF，
售价比传统产品高出10%至15%。
中东占营业额44%
分析员指，中东将依然是公司的MDF产品的潜在市场，特别是伊朗，
因美国将取消对该国的经济制裁。
中东市场占了今年至今营业额的44%比重，主要是因为运输成本较低，以及售价诱人。
相比于东盟国家，中东客户对价格敏感度较低，且支付现金。
此外，在强劲的国际经销网络下，管理层有信心，从新的高价刨花板和准备组装家具
中取得订单。
分析员表示，假设长青纤维板成功脱售树胶种植资产，投资者或会获得一项特别股息。
目前，该公司股息政策为20%至50%的净利。
净利还能再上涨
长青纤维板的有效税率介于10%至15%，低于分析员预计的17%，
这意味着净利仍具上涨空间。
此外，分析员表示，假设美元兑令吉每升1%，公司净利将提高10%。
“假设令吉兑美元平均达3.70，2016财年每股净利将提高至30仙。
以2016财年本益比12.5倍计算，目标价将达3.75令吉。”
此外，假设令吉兑美元平均达3.80，2016财年每股净利则会增加到36仙，
相等于4.50令吉的目标价，反映出股价有很大的上涨空间。
今日，该股收在1.64令吉，全日跌24仙或12.77%。
整体而言，分析员建议投资者“增持”该股，目标价为2.90令吉。
2)
Commentary of Prospects
With steady global MDF demand and the current appreciation of the US dollar for
which most of the exports of our products are priced, coupled with the Group’s
continuous efforts on cost control measures, maximizing productivity and
equipment enhancement via modernization and automation on manufacturing
processes, the Board is optimistic in achieving better results in the next quarter3)
Evergreen Fibreboard back in the black with
RM23.89m profit in 2Q
| August 19, 2015
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my ... k-rm2389m-profit-2q
KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 19): Wood-based products maker Evergreen Fibreboard
Bhd returned to the black the second quarter ended June 30, 2015 (2QFY15)
with a net profit of RM23.89 million or 4.66 sen per share compared with
a net loss of RM21.69 million or 4.23 sen loss per share a year ago.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, Evergreen attributed the increase in
profit to the lower cost of log and glue, higher operational efficiency and
synergistic cost savings derived from the group's recent restructuring of
certain operational facilities.
Revenue for the quarter jumped 20% to RM259.96 million from RM215.81
million in 2QFY14, on higher sales volume and the strengthening of
the US dollar.
For the six-month period ended June 30 (1HFY15), the group posted a
net profit of RM43.95 million or 8.57 sen per share compared with a net loss
of RM24.27 million or 4.73 sen loss per share in 1HFY14, while revenue
climbed 8% to RM492.09 million, from RM455.33 million.
Going forward, Evergreen expects to post better results in the coming quarter
, capitalising on the steady global demand for medium-density fibreboard
(MDF) and the strengthening of the US dollar.
Besides that, the group will continue to employ cost control measures and
to maximise productivity and equipment enhancement through the
modernisation and automation of its manufacturing processes.
Evergreen (fundamental: 0.85; valuation: 0.3) shares closed 9 sen or
4.8% higher at RM1.95 today, giving a market capitalisation of RM954.14 million.4)
買進券商心頭好．常青纖維或派特別股息
專注高賺幅產品
◆券商：聯昌證券研究
◆合理價：2.90令吉
常青纖維板（EVERGRN，5101，主要板工業）管理層有信心可交出預測般盈利表現
，因令吉兌美元匯率持續走跌，加上原料和運輸成本維持低水平，估計可如期達到
各項內部重組計劃期限。
橡膠原木供應充沛，估計價格將維持低水平。常青纖維板指在未來一兩年內，
亞洲的中密度纖維板產量供應不會顯著成長，使該產品維持良好價格走勢。
此外，常青纖維板在全球具強勁分銷網絡，因此有信心可為新優質甲板和現成
組裝家私產能獲取訂單。同時，西亞市場是該公司中密度纖維板，甚具吸引力市場。
該公司並不注重銷量表現，主要關注高賺幅產品如較薄中密度纖維板，價格較
普通夾板高10%到15%。常青纖維板也維持20%至50%派息政策（其中2013
和2014財年因虧損而暫停股息政策），若脫售橡膠種植建議兌現，投資者或可
有特別股息驚喜。
我們維持常青纖維板“增持”評級，合理價為2.90令吉。假設令吉兌美元每貶值1%
，就可提升盈利10%，如果平均匯率達3.70令吉至3.80令吉，該股的頂級目標價
為3.75令吉至4.50令吉，代表有80%到130%上升潛能。
5)
JULY 24, 2015, 7:30 AM
Evergreen Fibreboard: Better days ahead
BY SHERILYN GOH
StockStalk instory imageAfter a tumultuous FY13-14 which saw the group
posting heavy losses, the engineered wood-based product manufacturer’s
turnaround story is deemed an extraordinary one, driven by favourable
external environment and strong fundamentals. Are better days waiting
ahead and will the group finally see evergreen again?
Business model: Incorporated in the year 1991, engineered wood-based
product manufacturer Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd (EVF) has subsequently
made its debut on Bursa Malaysia’s Main Market on March 11, 2005.
The group engages principally in the business of manufacturing medium-density
fibreboards (MDFs), and today counts itself as one of Asia’s leading players in
the industry with a production capacity of up to 1.3 million cubic metre of
MDFs per annum, alongside players like Thailand’s Vanachai Group and
South Korea’s Dongwha Enterprise.
EVF has 10 MDF production lines and one particleboard production facility
spread across Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Over the years, it has
diversified its clientele base to include over 600 customers across more than
40 countries globally, whilst deriving no more than 10% of its topline from
one single client.
EVF also operates, on a smaller scale, the manufacturing of particleboard and
ready-to-assemble furniture. It also caters to its own glue requirements
from its adhesive facilities based in Batu Pahat, Johor and Gurun, Kedah,
while possessing 4,400 acres of rubber plantation land in Johor.
EVF’s earnings were severely dented in financial year 2012 to financial yea
r 2014 (FY12-14), as a result of the group being overly aggressive in bidding
for high-priced rubber-logging concessions in between 2011 and 2012.
When rubber prices fell sharply, EVF was left holding high-priced rubberwood
inventories until the second quarter of financial year 2014, and was compelled
to write off up to RM20 million in inventories in FY13 and FY14 each.
Shareholders and management: EVF was established by Kuo Wen Chi,
now aged 81, who still sits on the company’s board as non-independent
deputy chairman. The management and operation of the group are succeeded
by his sons, Kuo Jen Chang, aged 52, who is the chief executive officer;
and Kuo Jen Chiu, aged 49, who is the chief operating officer.
Jen Chang oversees the group’s operations in Thailand, while Jen Chiu,
is tasked with both operations in Malaysia and Indonesia. Collectively, the
Kuo family holds a controlling stake of 45% in EVF.
Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad 1-year price chart 230715 01Share price
performance: EVF’s share price has been steadily going on an uptrend
since the beginning of the year in January, alongside the strengthening
greenback, as up to 70% of EVF’s export revenue is denominated in US
dollar, with the remaining 30% denominated in local currencies of its
operating countries.
Sensitivity analysis conducted by CIMB Research also indicated that a 1%
strengthening of the US dollar is likely to increase EVF’s FY15 earnings
per share by 10%.
EVF closed on July 23 at RM2.01, up 3 sen.
EVF has a dividend policy of distributing 20% to 50% of profits as dividends.
However, this practice was suspended in FY13 and FY14 due to the
company’s heavy losses. In lieu with its turnaround, CIMB Research forecasts
a resumption in dividend payout to 20% to 22% in FY16-17 and a nominal
dividend of 1 sen per share in FY15.
What analysts think: Dubbing EVF an “exciting turnaround story”,
CIMB Research foresees many tailwinds playing to the group’s favour,
all of which could potentially propel earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation and amortisation from 4% in FY13 to 22% in FY17.
The prospects, according to CIMB Research, will be driven primarily
by the strong-performing US dollar, sharply lower raw material costs fo
r rubberwood logs and glue, falling freight cost, and the benefits of internal
restructuring exercise being implemented by the group.
“EVF has embarked on a series of internal restructuring projects to cut costs
, improve its manufacturing processes and introduce new products to
improve margins. These benefits are expected to flow through
in FY16-17’s earnings.
“In addition, we expect EVF to dispose of its non-core assets, which could
raise up to RM110 million in cash (21 sen per share) and could be used to
pare down debt and/or raise dividends,” said CIMB Research in its report
published on July 20.
Altogether, the research house forecasts that EVF’s strong earnings recovery
may see the group registering net profit by up to 500-fold to RM83 million,
compared to a mere RM0.2 million last year, and the group achieving a net
cash position by end-2017.
It is also expected that, by FY17, when EVF’s integrated plant in Segamat
is ready, earnings is likely to be further boosted by the additional profit
contribution from high-margin particleboards and pellets, added CIMB Research.
call on EVF at a target price of RM2.90, at 12.5 times FY16 price-earnings
(P/E), a 20% discount to larger-cap peer, Vanachai Group which is trading
at 15 times FY16 P/E.
Earnings forecast:
Evergreen-Fibreboard-earnings-forecast-230715-01
Peer comparison:
Peer-comparison-230715-01
StockStalk: After posting extraordinary turnaround, it really seems as though
better days are ahead for Asean’s largest MDF producer with a favourable
external environment.
While the winds may not always blow on the same side, some associating
risk factors to consider include fluctuations in foreign exchange rates,
raw material prices, labour and electricity costs, as well as MDF prices.
The fact that the bulk of EVF’s earnings are denominated in the US dollar
makes it susceptible to fluctuations of the greenback. While being a
beneficiary of the strong US dollar, a sharp depreciation of the greenback
could similarly play to its disadvantage by posing a negative impact on profit
margins of the group.
Investors, though, could be assured with the fact that the turnaround is not
solely dependent on external factors, but also coupled with the fact that
expansion in the group’s margins is also partly owing to its internal
restructuring moves, through the shutting down of unprofitable plants,
procurement of newer equipment, and expanding capacity of profitable
segments of its business.
While proving that the grasses are indeed not necessarily greener on the
other side, those who have yet to stake a claim on the homegrown MDF
producer may want to pick up the stock while it trades below fair
value at RM2.90. |
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6)
2015-07-26 19:24
xia問：
長青纖維板（EVERGRN，5101，主板工業產品組）前景好嗎？
答：據分析員早前走訪長青纖維板後，認為國際油價低迷及美元走強，
豐隆研究指出，該公司所需的原材料，如木材及膠汁都處於低迷，
此外，管理層也透露，公司將持續精簡成本及多元化不同的產品以取得更高的賺幅。
分析員認為，目前，長青纖維板的負債率低於0.3倍，且在改善賺幅中，
豐隆說，該公司需面對數項風險，包括原材料及勞工成本上升、纖維板（MDF）
假設該公司的美元匯率定在3令吉60仙，預計2015至2017財政年淨利可提高
豐隆認為，該公司橡膠地庫價值尚未反映在目前股價，加上健康的資產負債表
及美元走強的表現，維持該公司“買進”評級並上調目標價至2令吉15仙，
本益比為11倍。（星洲日報／投資致富‧投資問診‧文：李文龍）
6.4%至12.9%，每年淨利分別為7千870萬、1億零30萬及1億零300萬令吉。
需求量下跌、外匯波動及無法在預定的時間內轉虧為盈。
不排除2016年派發股息的可能。
將可支撐該公司盈利。
將提振該公司賺幅，加上精簡成本營運，因而不排除可在2016年派發股息。
7)
网友分析--
Brent crude oil price is now at US$ 55 per barrel and trending downwards.
This will be very good for export based manufacturers like Evergreen.
In addition ringgit may further weaken to 3.85 in the near future,
also good for exporters like Evergreen. US home sales data is
also very strong and strongly trending upwards.
Looks like all the macro indicators are favoring
export-based companies like Evergreen in the foreseeable future. |
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