余光成浅谈投资: 转贴；AIRASIA–Fundamental Analysis (1 Sep 2015)

2015年9月2日星期三

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 1 Sep 2015, 08:53 PM

AIRASIA Analysis:-

My View:-

Higher risk that IAA’s convertible bonds (CB) may not be successfully issued, as the CBs are now being marketed to foreigners rather than the initial target of local Indonesian investors
FY15 Q2

In 2Q15, despite registering a flat revenue growth, AirAsia reported a 62% increase in core net profit to RM109m taking 1H15 core net profit to RM262m (+35% yoy).
Load factor in 2Q15 improved to 80% yoy (+4.6ppt), on aggressive marketing activities. The number of passengers carried grew by 6.8% yoy, however average fares fell by 10% in the absence of fuel surcharges resulting in a 5% drop in revenue/ASK (RASK). CASK fell by 11% yoy on lower fuel costs. For 2H15, AA has hedged 51% of its fuel requirement at US$84/barrel.
Contribution from associates more than doubled in 2H15, mainly attributed to higher earnings from Thailand AA (45%-owned). TAA registered a net profit of THB374m (2Q14: loss of THB318m). TAA’s RASK improved by 5% while CASK fell by 10%.

The continued weakening of the Ringgit against the US$ which is on average 12.7% lower compared to FY14. ~70% of operating expenses and 80% of debt are US$ denominated. AirAsia’s US$ debt hedges are at 73% utilising a combination of natural and derivative hedging. Meanwhile, ~8% of operating costs are hedged to reduce the impact from USD/MYR volatility.
Positives:

I am still worry about AIRASIA, but I believe AIRASIA will be able to go through these issues.

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.