2016年8月31日星期三

tekseng 7200 德成控股 rm1.23 值得进吗?


----巴士站屋頂的太阳能电池板与路旁Lta 的cctv裝置(同为太阳能电池板).(jurong east centre)


---位于kampung bahru road 的太阳能电池板装置.(

Lta 的cctv裝置)

近几日下调是部份投资者套利,主要是大股东没出货都不用太担心,一些憑单持有者转成母股,
成長线持有人,前景亮丽,这些太阳能电池己大量在新加坡使用,用于公路旁cctv 的装置,照明用,组
,商业屋顶层太阳能收集等
环保,节能是未来的趋势,当油价走高后更显著太阳能的重要!

Tekseng 保守2016 eps=17--19sen ,pe=10 ,stock price=RM 1.70--1.90 ,
 Tekseng 幸福的未來己看到,全球减碳排放,环保意识抬头,这太阳能行业是趋势
大马今后家庭使用太阳能将会普及化.
参考,进出自负.
---增加生产线
先进科技让太阳能电池板的功效更高,而且成本比之前更低,因此对太阳能系统的需求越来越大。为了应付强大的需求,德成控股计划提高太阳能电池板的制造产能,从目前每个月的560万块增加至每月1,000万块。
集团目前拥有7条生产线,其中3条在下个月将会全面运作。公司也计划至2016年底添加两条生产线,让其生产线的数目增加至9条。德成控股估计,一旦其9条生产线开始全面运作,公司每年可以生产1亿5,600万块太阳能电池板,基于目前的市值计算,总值达到2亿3,400万美元。
再生能源受到重视
马来西亚的能源、绿色工艺及水务部(Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water,以下简称KeTTHA)提议在今年建造一个250兆瓦(MW)、属于公用事业规模的太阳能发电厂,显示市场对再生能源的需求越来越大。


转贴---
Things That You Should Know About TEKSENG (7200)
Author: noobnnew   |   Publish date: Sun, 15 May 2016, 11:32 AM 

The EGM of Tek Seng will be held on this coming Thursday (19 May 2016) and their share price had increased about 20% since last around RM1.1 last month to RM1.34 currently. Even though the heavy selldown on last Friday, the share price of Tek Seng still able to up 1sen and closed at RM1.34. However, before you invest in Tek Seng Bhd or you are going to attend the EGM, there are a few things that you need to know.
Tek Seng was a company that listed in 2004 and the company core business are PVC Sheeting and PP-Non Woven Product. The company had invested in a joint venture with Solartech Taiwan and form TS Solartech, a subsidiary that manufacturing solar cell in the year of 2011. Below are the revenue and profit growth of Tek Seng since 2004.

As we can observe, the revenue of the company had increased 1080% and net profit had triple or increase 373.05% due to their successful diversification to solar cell manufacturing business. Besides that, the EBIT of Tek Seng also increased from 7% to 9% due to the explosive contribution of their solar cell business. Below are a more detail breakdown of Tek Seng in terms of product segment.


Tek Seng are expected to generate higher net profit since their management had decided to expand 7 manufacturing line in their solar cell manufacturing. Their order book had been filled up for the year of 2016 and 1Q2017. Despite for the high order book for their solar cell manufacturing business, the whole outlook of solar energy sector are promising as well. Below the global solar forecast base on Mercom Capital Group, LLC.


The ratification of Paris Accord last year means that the world are going to invest more in renewable energy sector especially the solar energy. Besides that, the extension of Investment Tax Credit in the United States had become another catalyst that contribute to the booming of solar energy sector. Hence, according to Bloomberg, the solar installation industry in the United States are expected to double over the next five year. Besides that, China are expected to install approximately 19.5GW of solar cell panel in 2016 and the figure expected to fourfold within 5 years due to air pollution continues to drive China’s environmental policies, of which clean power generation is a big part. Officials from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) are considering raising the 2020 target from 100 GW to 150 GW, which will bring about 21 GW of annual installation between 2016 through 2020. China also has pledged to reach an ‘emissions peak’ around 2030 with non-fossil fuels making up 20 percent of the nation’s energy generation mix, according to the report issue by Renewable Energy World. In short, the fantastic sector outlook for renewable energy will be able to drive Tek Seng well in the future.
Eventhough Tek Seng Bhd had a good future prospect, but there are some problem that investor need to aware of before invest in Tek Seng.
Working Capital Management Issue
The issue of working capital management had always been a nightmare to solar company. The bankruptcy of SunEdison recently due to aggressive growth plan need to be serve as an alarm to the management of Tek Seng Bhd.

Similar to SunEdison, the amount of interest bearing debt of Tek Seng Bhd had been rocketing over the year. Their long term debt had inflate for more than 800% since listing on 2004. Besides that, their bank borrowing also almost quadruple.   Below are the graph of debt growth of Tek Seng Bhd since 2004.

Based on the latest liabilities composition of Tek Seng Bhd as below, the largest composition will be their payables stand at 35%, followed by term loans which is 30% and bank borrowings at 26%.


And according to the excerpt from their annual report, the interest rate of their loan was vary from 2.2% to 6%. The alarming high debt and receivable issue are becoming a threat to Tek Seng Berhad. This is due to the company might not have enough liquidity to serve their loan based on their asset composition as below. Based on the pie chart below, most of the asset of Tek Seng Bhd are property, plant and equipment (74%). Cash and cash equivalent in bank are only consist of 4% on their total asset. In other words, the company only had RM18million of cash but have RM104million of loans. Besides, that Tek Seng also had around RM66million of payable exclude hire purchase. The huge amount of debt might be due to the increase expansion of Solar Cell manufacturing line since their debt are stable until 2013 and start to balloon at 2015. However, this does not change the fact that the working capital management of Tek Seng are fragile if Tek Seng was unable to generate enough revenue to repay its debt and their supplier then Tek Seng might be going into bankruptcy in worst case scenario.

Dilution of Control on TS Solartech

In order to increase their revenue stream, Tek Seng had diverse themselves into Solar Cell manufacturing business in the year of 2011. As seen from the excerpt above, Tek Seng had a 60% of controlling interest in the business.  Tek Seng had increased their shareholding to 86.1% at the year of 2012. However, as at 31 December 2015, the controlling interest on TS Solartech Bhd had fallen to 50.69%. As we know, most of the revenue of Tek Seng are from their Solar Cell business. So, Tek Seng need to remain control in TS Solartech in order to maintain their valuation. So, the controlling of TS Solartech should be the first priority on management.




Concluding Remark
In conclude, the Solar Energy sector of are promising and Tek Seng might be benefit from it’s due to its cost efficient production and high quality product. Solar conversion efficiency was the main concern for the user of Solar Panel. The new world record on highest solar conversion efficiency was 22.1%. The PV that manufacturing by Tek Seng are able to achieve a solar conversion efficiency of 17.8% which considered are highly effective conversion rate among the manufacturer. As the company currently undergoing extensive expansion, below are two question that need to be answer by the management during the EGM before further investment decision:
·         The plan for Tek Seng on capital management. How to manage their debt?
·         Controlling interest on TS Solartech. How to avoid further dilution? Are there plan of management to increase their controlling interest in the business?
Since I am unable to attend the EGM due to personal reason, I am more than happy if the question are being bring up in the upcoming EGM and some of the reader could share their answer here.
Disclaimer: I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. The author does not guarantee the performance of any investments and potential investors should always do their own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Although the author believes that the information presented here is correct to the best of his knowledge, no warranties are made and potential investors should always conduct their own independent research before making any investment decisions. Investing carries risk of loss and is not suitable for all individuals. By the time of writing, the author have a LONG POSITION on TEKSENG BHD.



---老板加码,看来他对公司的前景非常有信心。

Changes in Director's Interest (S135)

TEK SENG HOLDINGS BERHAD

Information Compiled By KLSE

Particulars of Director

NameLOH KOK BENG
Descriptions(Class & nominal value)Ordinary shares of RM0.25 each

Details of changes

Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted ($$)
Acquired
30/08/2016
3,000,000
1.230

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred
Off Market Purchases
Nature of interest
Direct
Consideration (if any)
RM3,690,000.00






Total no of securities after change

Direct (units)69,679,630
Direct (%)20.550
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
Date of notice30/08/2016


----老板 Loh kok Beng ;这几天rm1.23買入3000,000股,这是定心丸。等11月Q3业绩才表演了。股性就是人性情绪反应的结果,好时大多人唱好,不好时就唱坏,公司净利才是王道,看星星听海浪声的日子不远了。投资多看正面,少看负面消息,从过去交易经验,公司2016年Q3,Q4和2017年Q1良好业绩将反应在下来的股价,趁低吸收。


















2016年8月27日星期六

太阳能电池板相关视频--


1)電價漲!太陽能轉盈有望 製程直擊



2)

天陽能源 - 太陽能發電光電系統 -

屋頂 廠房 農地的建置規劃及安裝設備



3)

太陽能板 價差2倍! 破解多項選板迷思--

屋頂太陽能20年穩定的退休金收入


4)

高雄厝出怪招?頂樓加蓋變綠建築--

台中/彰化/南投 太陽能發電系統—0980505868 太陽光電安裝 周小姐


5)

南夯「種電」、北仍缺電!認養太陽能板興起--苗栗/新竹/桃園 太陽能發電系統—0980505868


6)

太陽能發電現況 【范揚琪太陽能發電哥與您分享-0918-915-830 】@20160601


7)

《走遍中国》 20160613 会赚钱的太阳能小镇 | CCTV-4


8)

太陽能發電之成本分析篇 主標題+【范揚琪太陽能發電哥與您分享-0918-915-830 】@20160603


9)

太陽能投資與財務自由


10)

攻太陽能發電商機 台廠布局全球種電--苗栗/新竹/桃園 太陽能發電系統—0980505868 太陽光電安裝 周小姐


https://www.tokuyama.co.jp/eng/ir/management/malaysia_pj.html

网友British empire 之分享:
For all those that do not know the above link will explain that
Malaysia produces the purest silicon and must cost effective for 
the production of Solar cells and as it is sold in Malaysian Ringgit no high import costs !
Also the Malaysian government supports any company involved in Green Energy with incentives.
Maybe the smart ones out there are starting to understand why 
Tek Seng can not be compared with failed overseas solar companies 
and are a very strong force in the industry with so many advantages.

買7200 m1,23 ,未來我国家中装太阳能电池市場很大。

2016年8月25日星期四

转贴:德成控股押注于太阳能电池板业务

2016-8-24
a)



由于全球对再生能源的需求不断增长,各国为此启动了各种各样的再生能源
项目,包括大规模的水力发电厂、风力发电厂及太阳能系统。
业务简介
德成控股(Tek Seng Holdings)是一家于2002年成立的马来西亚公司,它起初是
从事聚氯乙烯(polyvinyl chloride,以下简称PVC)相关产品及聚丙烯
(polypropylene)非织造产品的生产及贸易。近年来,集团开始制造太阳能
电池板
截至FY15,太阳能电池板业务为集团的收入带来最大的贡献,占了51.5%
超越了PVC薄膜制造业务,后者的贡献下跌至36.4%。
德成控股的股价从一年前的0.38令吉升高了超过两倍,并在2016年8月22日
以1.31令吉报收。由于这只股的升势凌厉,我们特别为大家深入报道了这只股
,看看市场对再生能源的需求是否可以令公司的股价更上一层楼。
财务表现
在FY15,集团于马来西亚及台湾的业务为其收入带来71.3%贡献。
尽管FY13的表现有点失色,但整体而言,集团过去四年在收入、净利及股本
回报率方面均有进步。从FY11至FY15,集团的净利差不多提高了两倍,
而在同一期间,收入则接近翻倍。德成控股最令人鼓舞的成绩是股本回报率,
后者自FY13以来增加超过10个百分点,显示其盈利以高效率增长。
德成控股公布了十分强劲的1H16业绩,净利报3,130万令吉,已经超越了
FY15全年获得的净利
此外,太阳能电池板业务预期会为集团的FY16收入带来大约70%贡献,
鉴于其获得的订单已经一直排至今年底。 因此,投资者今年可能获得
更高的派息。
增加生产线
先进科技让太阳能电池板的功效更高,而且成本比之前更低,因此对太阳能
系统的需求越来越大。为了应付强大的需求,德成控股计划提高太阳能
电池板的制造产能,从目前每个月的560万块增加至每月1,000万块。
集团目前拥有7条生产线,其中3条在下个月将会全面运作。公司也计划至
2016年底添加两条生产线,让其生产线的数目增加至9条。德成控股估计,
一旦其9条生产线开始全面运作,公司每年可以生产1亿5,600万块太阳能
电池板,基于目前的市值计算,总值达到2亿3,400万美元。
再生能源受到重视
马来西亚的能源、绿色工艺及水务部(Ministry of Energy, Green Technology
 and Water,以下简称KeTTHA)提议在今年建造一个250兆瓦(MW)、
属于公用事业规模的太阳能发电厂,显示市场对再生能源的需求越来越大。
KeTTHA承认,马来西亚离开其使用再生能源的目标还有一段很长的路要走,
并计划增加以再生能源来发电的规模。除了发展公用事业规模的太阳能设施外
,马来西亚政府也批准了一个名为净计量电价(net energy metering,
以下简称NEM)机制。NEM机制让消费者安装太阳能电池板在楼宇的顶部,
日间由太阳能电池板产生的电量可从消费者的电费单中扣除。
虽然政府鼓励全民使用更多再生能源对德成控股是一大优势,但我们对集团
是否能获得公营项目的合约保持谨慎。KeTTHA 最近把在雪兰莪英达岛
(Pulau Indah)开设一座新1,000MW发电厂的合约直接颁给TADMAX资源
(Tadmax Resources)引来媒体的严厉批评。马来西亚媒体指出,这是在过去两年
,发电厂项目第三次直接颁发给一家公司。
总结
基于德成控股过去12个月的每股盈利,其股票目前的估值是本益比的9倍,
而它目前的交易价稍微低于其1.43令吉的52周高位。
尽管其估值合理,们对德成控股保持中立。虽然其订单排至2016年底,
但2017年可能出现变数。由于太阳能电池板在竞争加剧及生产效能提高下
变得越来越便宜,德成控股的毛利在不久后可能会下降。

b)太阳能价格趋势:
http://www.energytrend.cn/solars.html

c)

全球太陽能報價急跌 昇陽科 7月營收月減34.8%

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160802000220-260206


d)
看完就知這行业的前景了,以台湾为例投资种电行业回酬有8,7%,
留意7200tekseng的前景了。Tekseng 幸福的未來己看到,
全球减碳排放,环保意识抬头,这太阳能行业是趋势.。



e)Britishempire 兄之分享:
As we can observe, the revenue of the company had increased 1080% and net profit had triple or increase 373.05% due to their successful diversification to solar cell manufacturing business. Besides that, the EBIT of Tek Seng also increased from 7% to 9% due to the explosive contribution of their solar cell business. Below are a more detail breakdown of Tek Seng in terms of product segment. 




Tek Seng are expected to generate higher net profit since their management had decided to expand 7 manufacturing line in their solar cell manufacturing. Their order book had been filled up for the year of 2016 and 1Q2017. Despite for the high order book for their solar cell manufacturing business, the whole outlook of solar energy sector are promising as well. Below the global solar forecast base on Mercom Capital Group, LLC. 



The ratification of Paris Accord last year means that the world are going to invest more in renewable energy sector especially the solar energy. Besides that, the extension of Investment Tax Credit in the United States had become another catalyst that contribute to the booming of solar energy sector. Hence, according to Bloomberg, the solar installation industry in the United States are expected to double over the next five year. Besides that, China are expected to install approximately 19.5GW of solar cell panel in 2016 and the figure expected to fourfold within 5 years due to air pollution continues to drive China’s environmental policies, of which clean power generation is a big part. Officials from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) are considering raising the 2020 target from 100 GW to 150 GW, which will bring about 21 GW of annual installation between 2016 through 2020. China also has pledged to reach an ‘emissions peak’ around 2030 with non-fossil fuels making up 20 percent of the nation’s energy generation mix, according to the report issue by Renewable Energy World. In short, the fantastic sector outlook for renewable energy will be able to drive Tek Seng well in the future.

转贴:TEKSENG: Bound to Rebound (Morning Session)

Author: smartrader2020   |   Publish date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016, 11:21 AM 

Post-2QFY16 results, the share price has been comically in downtrend following profit taking by traders and force sell by latecomers. Judging from daily-minutes chart, the stock is already at the bottom, where it is on fibonacci retracement of 61.8%. Other indicator, RSI is in oversold zone at lowest point of 21 level. In short-term, the stock is bound to rebound as selling is overdone and traders and investors may want to take opportunity to establish position in this knee-jerk price reaction at bargain RM1.24-RM1.25. Traders can look at between RM1.34-RM1.36 as exit points. Along the way up towards short-term exit points, some remaining force sellers may put pressure on the share price. Thus, stay calm and do not get panic!
Fundamentally, the stock still has more upside potential to approx. RM2.04 based on conservative PER of 10x to annualised FY16 earnings, (still below 3-year average PER of 14x). To recap, Tekseng's 1HFY16 net profit jumped by more than 4x to RM31.31mn or 10.18sen EPS from RM5.82mn or 2.39sen EPS in 1HFY15 due to higher revenue across all segments of totalling RM290.81mn from RM137.83mn in 1HFY15. Outlook remains on the sunny side as evidently shown in 1HFY16 results performance despite uncertainty in global economies.
Should the stock maintains above RM1.17, mid-longer-term bullish view remains intact with an expectation offundamental TP of RM2.04 (during the period from now till end of the year 2016). It will retest RM1.43 for the third attempt before continuing to move higher from there.

Source: Online trading platform


2016年8月23日星期二

转贴:SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK


Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Electricity and Heat Generation from Renewables

EIA expects total renewables used in the electric power sector to increase by 10.5% in 2016 and by 4.3% in 2017. Forecast hydropower generation in the electric power sector increases by 7.8% in 2016 and then falls by 2.0% in 2017. Consumption of renewable energy other than hydropower in the electric power sector is forecast to grow by 12.9% in 2016 and by 9.6% in 2017.
EIA expects that utility-scale solar capacity will grow by 8.0 gigawatts (GW) (60%) in 2016 and by 5.3 GW (25%) in 2017. The projected amount of solar capacity at the end of next year, 26.7 GW, would be nearly double the amount of capacity existing at the end of 2015. States leading in utility-scale solar capacity additions are California, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia. Forecast utility-scale solar generation averages 1% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2017.
U.S. wind capacity totaled 72.5 GW at the end of 2015, more than five times the amount of solar capacity. Wind capacity is expected to increase by 7.5 GW (10%) in 2016 and by 8.5 GW (11%) in 2017. Forecast wind generation accounts for almost 6% of total generation next year.

Liquid Biofuels

On November 30, 2015, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized a rule setting Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2014 through 2016. On May 18, 2016, EPA released the proposed RFS volumes for 2017 along with finalized biomass-based diesel volumes for 2017. EIA used both the final and proposed volumes to develop the current STEO forecast through 2017. Ethanol production averaged almost 970,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average about 980,000 b/d in 2016 and 2017. Ethanol consumption averaged about 910,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average about 930,000 b/d in both 2016 and 2017. This level of consumption results in the ethanol share of the total gasoline pool averaging 10.0% in both 2016 and 2017.
EIA expects that the largest effect of the RFS targets will be on biomass-based diesel consumption, which includes both biodiesel and renewable diesel and helps to meet the RFS targets for use of biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel. Biodiesel production averaged 82,000 b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average 99,000 b/d in 2016 and 106,000 b/d in 2017. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to rise from 29,000 b/d in 2015 to 41,000 b/d in 2016 and to 47,000 b/d in 2017. EIA assumes about 10,000 b/d of domestic renewable diesel consumption will be used to help meet the biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels RFS targets in both 2016 and 2017.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

EIA estimates that energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide decreased by 2.7% in 2015. Emissions are forecast to decrease by 1.5% in 2016 and then increase by 0.8% in 2017. These forecasts are sensitive to assumptions about weather and economic growth.