2020年6月9日星期二

0163 carepls 加护手套(rm1.57)投资


转贴:
CAREPLUS INVESTOR BRIEFING : BUY RATING - Growth Investing | I3investor
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/GrowthInvesting22/2020-06-09-story-h1508700673-CAREPLUS_INVESTOR_BRIEFING_BUY_RATING.jsp

CAREPLUS投资者简报:买入评级
作者:MohdHafiz发布日期:星期二,2020年6月9日,6:36 PM

Careplus(投资者简报)

营业额很容易超过5亿令吉,而目前的设施利用率将回升至90%(2019年因工厂改建和改进而中断),而2019财年为83%(2018财年为88%),而平均售价增幅很容易超过20% 2019。

您可以买入价格高达170的股票。基于PE15到18的价格,我将平均ASP增长25%,从223到267。但是,如果增长20%,我的估值将是180到216,CAREPLUS投资和投资催化剂优点••

完成以2700万令吉出售Ansell的全资子公司Careplus(M)S / B(CMSB)的50%股权,从而改善其在2019年12月31日的净流动负债状况••以50份中的150%出售CMSB的净资产价值百分比,并实现了约1,798万令吉的出售利润,即2020财年第二季度的每股盈利3.07森。

••扣除2千050万令吉的额外股本用于CMSB的再投资以认购新股来扩充资本支出和CMSB偿还1200万共同贷款后,来自Careplus的现金净收益2850万令吉。

Careplus正在进行的结构转型可能会转化为可持续的收入增长。 •

利润率扩张和利润率提高:由于平均售价高(由COVID19爆发推动),较低的原材料成本和更高的制版利用率支撑•

•2019财年工厂的改造和改善将使工厂利用率从2019年的83%提高到近90%•

与Ansell的合资企业:利用Ansell的全球足迹和市场领导地位来维持长期收益增长Careplus与CMSB的Ansell(全球最大的外科手套品牌)合资企业(以50:50的比率)显着改善了Careplus的前景,收益增长也随着增长而加速到2020年底将有9条新生产线投产,到2021年将再安装2条生产线。

合资公司将把产能从41亿个PC增加到2020年底的56亿个,除非有任何中断,否则到2021年底将达到65亿个。到2022年,新的9条生产线将使产能增加52%:预计到2022年,产能将以每年22亿个/年的速度增长,达到总产能63亿个/年(2019年为41亿)•

转向提供更高价值的产品:增加生产组合和更高价值的外科手术手套,约占总收入的30%,而2019财年为5%

-关于Careplus的见解-

利润预测

不用担心第一季度的结果,有400万令吉的厨房储备被注销,我相信这是不会发生的。指经营活动产生的现金流量有400万被冲销。

如果没有注销400万令吉,由于平均售价的提高,他们将在第一季度实现600万令吉的利润。

营业额很容易超过5亿令吉,而目前的设施利用率回升至90%(2019年因工厂改建和改进而中断),而2019财年为83%(2018财年为88%),而平均售价增幅很容易超过20%到2019年。以20%的利润率,他们可以达到1000万(每股收益3美分)。若本益比为20,则其股份的价值为RM 2.40。

他们前进的收入将比正常情况好,并且至少获得1000万的利润。观看第二季度的报告指南。

-泰勒-
转贴:

Careplus QR Profit RM5,181,000

On 5 June 2020, Careplus release QR 31-Mar-20.
Profit is RM1,141,000. EPS is 0.21 sen.
If look inside report, see inventories written down is RM4,040,000. This cannot be find inside notes but is in cash flow statement. I do not know why is not mention in the note 7. Normally is mention there.
If remove this write off, profit for quarter is RM5,181,000. This is quite good. Careplus always is make loss company. And the profit likely is March. Jan and Feb still quiet about Covid.
If use this profit, EPS for quarter is 1 sen.
How much is profit April, May and June? Should be continue improve.
Will Careplus go up or down on Tuesday? I do not know. Different people different idea about profit result. I just show hidden item in report only
Careplus QR赢利RM5,181,000
作者:i3Value发布日期:2020年6月8日星期一,5:34 PM

2020年6月5日,Careplus发布了QR 31-Mar-20。

利润是RM1,141,000。 每股收益为0.21仙。

如果查看内部报告,请查看已记录的库存为4,040,000令吉。 不能在票据内找到,但在现金流量表中。 我不知道为什么在注释7中未提及。通常在那里提及。

如果取消此注销,本季度的利润为RM5,181,000。 这很好。 Careplus始终是亏损公司。 利润可能是三月。 1月和2月仍然对Covid保持沉默。

如果使用该利润,则本季度每股收益为1仙。

4月,5月和6月的利润是多少? 应该继续改善。

Careplus在星期二会涨还是跌? 我不知道。 不同的人对获利结果的看法不同。 我只在报告中显示隐藏的项目

转贴:

GLOVES SECTOR - THIS IS MY REAL TARGET PRICE FY20-FY21

WANT TO BE A KIM'S STOCKWATCH GROUP? 
Click here https://www.telegram.me/kimstock for more details. 


 
Date : 09 June 2020
 
 
STOCK 1 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BERHAD
 
Current Price : RM16.38
Target Price : [ TP5: RM25 - TP6 RM30 ]
Last target : RM35 (Mac-2021 - Last target depend on COVID-19 situation)
 
 
* All target prices has been revised from 6.05 - 6.10 Buycall.( Old Target )
* My previous blogs : 
01. TopGlov Kim01
02. TopGlov Kim02
03. TopGlov Kim03
04. TopGlov Kim04
 
 
 
STOCK 2 HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD
 
Current Price : RM12.20
Target Price : [ TP5: RM18 - TP6 RM23 ]
Last target : RM30 (Mac-2021 - Last target depend on COVID-19 situation)
 
 
* All target prices has been revised from 6.38 - 6.40 Buycall.( Old Target )
* My previous blogs : 
01. Harta Kim01
02. Harta Kim02
03. Harta Kim03
04. Harta Kim04
 
 
STOCK 3 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BERHAD
 
Current Price : RM8.98
Target Price : [ TP5: RM12 - TP6 RM18 ]
Last target : RM25 (Mac-2021 - Last target depend on COVID-19 situation)
 
 
* All target prices has been revised from 5.05 - 5.10 Buycall.( Old Target )
* My previous blogs : 
01. Kossan Kim01
02. Kossan Kim02
03. Kossan Kim03
04. Kossan Kim04
 
 
 
STOCK 4 SUPERMAX CORPORATION BERHAD
 
Current Price : RM8.88
Target Price : [ TP5: RM12 - TP6 RM15 ]
Last target : RM23 (Mac-2021 - Last target depend on COVID-19 situation)
 
 
* All target prices has been revised from 1.50 - 1.60 Buycall.( Old Target )
* My previous blogs : 
01. Supermx Kim01
02. Supermx Kim02
03. Supermx Kim03
04. Supermx Kim04
05. Supermx Kim05
06. Supermx Kim06
07. Supermx Kim07
08. Supermx Kim08
 
 

Additional my selected Small Gloves as follow :
 
STOCK : HLT GLOBAL BERHAD
 
Current Price : 0.88 cents
Target Price : TP1: RM1.20 - TP2 RM1.50
Last target : RM2 (Mac-2021 - Last target depend on COVID-19 situation)
 
 
 
*This stock need to wait next quater result release then I will comeback to write/ideas.
* Short-term play not same as my Big-4 gloves. Take note and trade with cautiously.
 
 


WHAT KIM SAID ABOUT GLOVES SECTOR NOW?
 
BULLISH & UPTRENDING 
 
1. "TOMORROW FLY TO RECORD A NEW HIGH AGAIN"
 
1. - (Covid-19) 7,000,000 mil hits global cases. Heading to 10M.
2. - (Covid-19) 2,000,000 mil  hits Uncle Sam cases. Heading to double.
3. - KLCI flying with 40 intensive worth 35B.
4. - CMCO extended to 30 August by Govt.
5. - Top Glove done (ESOS) big amount. Refreshing and will lead all gloves movement.
6. - IB's will revise their new target after they done 2 days tricky. Accumulated lowest.
7. - I say time to aggressive fly. You wont get cheap prices on Gloves sector this June. Playing high target on gloves this week also awaiting excellent and superb Top Gloves result on Thursday.
 
 
2. "GRAB THIS OPPORTUNITY IN JUNE. NO CHEAP PRICES ON JULY"
 
1. - Expect Covid-19 heading to 10,000,000 within another 3 months
2. - Expect Covid-19 heading to 5,000,000 within another 3 months
3. - Most Gloves cw's not expiring on June. So my predicting is another flying call warrants in the making
4. - Business allowed  to operate full capacity soon. Its mean Government had allowed rubber glove industry to run at full capacity and service providers as well as raw materials and packaging suppliers in the rubber glove industry can continue operating. So the production can fullfill all ordered and demand received. Its good move because Malaysia is expected to produce 220 billion pieces of rubber gloves this year.
 
 
3. "MARGIN LIMITING/CAPPING BY IB'S"
 
 
1. - Good ideas from IB's by capping the margin account.
 
I am forsee start from June all gloves movements will going stablize and continue to be next rally. Dont worries about "Correction" because correction always did when you are panics selling with no reason such like "margin capping issue". So on 1st and 2nd June, from my view, I just base on 2 big gloves. Top Glove and Harta. By looking at trend sell & buy. Both are defending at certain level, where i can see both are creating new supports and can't go lower. With Harta last minute big push gapped -12 bids. So i assume next day new support will be created again. So Harta will standback at @13.0 and Top Glove @15.0. However impossible the force sell to stop immediately but it still. So 70% of my view, I am forsees nextday will have a balancing before the force sell to stop.
 
 
2. - Investment banks (IB'S) could have done this for two reasons :-
 
Firstly, they feared glove overvalued. By then trying to avoid losses later by margin calls
Secondly, they are losing too much money in issuing too many glove call warrants. As call glove stocks continue going up while they are suffering tremendous losses from call warrants.
 
So, from my view and my side they are playing something now, but I am not saying they are cheating but 'smarting". Since Malaysia is a free market they should let free trading decide by limiting margin only showing banks are now weak and vulnerable."Maybe".
 

3. - What a Margin Capping's this? Just an example. Lets see 2 Ib's for study :
 
A.  MayBank Investment Bank Bhd (Top Glove)
     Target Price : RM20.00
     Margin account Capping at RM9.41
 
B.  RHB Investment Bank Bhd (Supermax)
     Target Price : RM10.50
      Margin a/c Capping at 35% or RM5.00
 
So, I belief they issued too many European structure call warrant especially Supermax and Top Glove call warrant and never expect also imagine Supermax and Top Glove. Both gap up and flew sky high in a very short time and caught them off guard. So they take immediate action with tis new rules.
 
 
4. So, for Me as I said :-
 
1. "Yes, It's Hot; But No, Your Gas Tank Won't Explode If You Fill It Up"
2. "When you put the tight CAP in hot bottles. The explode will come"
3. "Spectacular example, simply put some dry ice in an empty soda bottle, screw the cap on tightly, and stand back. As the dry ice sublimates, the bottle will fill (and then overfill) with CO2 gas. When a critical pressure is reached, the soda bottle will give out, and the makeshift pressure bomb will detonate"
4."Boom for Gloves in the making waves 3"
 

WHAT A KEY POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSIDE RISKS? AND WHEN YOU SHOULD WORRIES YOUR HOLDINGS?
 
 
1. Trading at a historic high PER of more than 40x for the industry
2.  Implementation of wind fall tax by the government
3.  A successful development of vaccine and must official announcement by WHO
4.  A sharp decline in global daily covid-19 cases
 
 

 
 
THIS JUNE - I WOULD LIKE TO RECALL ABOUT HARTALEGA
 
 
Hartalega Holdings Berhad (HARTA) is an established Malaysia-based investment holding company founded by Kuan Kam Hon and is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur. HARTA is primarily involved in the business of producing latex and nitrile gloves. It has grown to be the world’s largest nitrile glove producer with the capability of manufacturing 34 billion gloves per year and with plans to progressively expand to 44.7 billion gloves in 2020.

HARTA was listed on Bursa Malaysia’s Main Market on 17 April 2008. The group has continued the technological innovations that help to ensure their gloves are manufactured with equal emphasis on efficiency and quality, a key reason why they are trusted as the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) for some of the world’s biggest brands.

The company has a workforce of 7,800 people based in 8 dedicated manufacturing facilities. It has won many prestigious accolades in both local and international front. The latest was in 2019 for Gold in Export Excellence, Exporter of The Year and The Edge Billion Ringgit Club Corporate Awards. It has also received recognition from Forbes Asia, KPMG and Asia Money.

HARTA provides a comprehensive range of products known for its superior quality and critical protection. Examples include nitrile gloves, latex gloves, surgical gloves and laboratory gloves.
As the most automated glove production company, its automated process not only improves efficiency but also eliminates product contamination resulting from human contact. HARTA produces soft stretchy nitrile gloves that emulate the properties of natural rubber latex. The nitrile gloves also eliminate the chances of protein allergy risks that are usually associated with rubber latex.

All gloves produced by HARTA are purchased by healthcare practitioners, food processing workers, lab workers and other professionals. Presently, HARTA’s export markets span across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, Russia and Middle East.
 
 
 
 
World Live StatsTotal Cases7.146.770Total Deaths407.412Total Recovered3.486.497
 
 
 
 
 
FINANCIAL REVIEW
 

 
Based on past 5 financial years’ revenue chart above, its revenue grew year-on-year (y-o-y) from FY2015 (+3.51%), FY2016 (+30.75%), FY2017 (+21.59%), FY2018 (+32.04%) to FY2019 (+17.52%). On a CAGR basis, HARTA has grown 20.62% based on 5 years. The group’s strong revenue was achieved on the back of improved sales volume which grew by 10.1% year-on-year to 28 billion pieces of gloves. The US and European Union remain key export markets accounting for 54% and 25% of their total exports respectively.
 
 
 


 
HARTA has recorded a RM93.441 million increase in gross profit, translating to a growth of 15.20% from RM614.762 million in FY2018 to RM708.203 million in FY2019. Based on 5 years CAGR basis, the gross profit has grown 13.99%. The increase in gross profit for HARTA was supported by increased contribution from the United States and Europe in tandem with the growing global demand for nitrile gloves. The group was well-positioned to meet this demand growth given their continuous expansion in production capacity via their Next Generation Integrated Glove Manufacturing Complex (NGC).
 
 
 
 

 
The Profit After Tax (PAT) of HARTA rose 3.48% from RM439.632 million in FY2018 to RM454.938 million in FY2019. On a CAGR basis, the Profit After Tax (PAT) grew by 14.29% which was in line with the growth in revenue and gross profit.

 
 
 
CASH FLOW STATEMENT

The net cash from operating activities has provided a positive cash flow of RM627.399 million in FY2019 as compared to RM403.949 million in FY2018 indicating that the company is healthy and has enough cash to use for business expansion. The net cash from investing activities in FY2019 (-RM428.602 million) was mainly due to the additions to capital work-in-progress (RM398.412 million), additions to Property, Plant and Equipment (PPE) (RM33.057 million) and additions to intangible assets (RM1.459 million). The negative cash flow indicates that the firm is investing in its business for growth. The net cash from financing activities in FY2019 (-RM206.644 million) was mainly due to dividend paid (RM286.177 million) and interest paid (RM10.620 million).
 
 
 
COMPANY ABLE TO PAY BACK ITS LIABILITIES?

Based on liquidity ratio calculation, HARTA has a current ratio of 2.179 times in FY2019 indicating that the company does not face any liquidity issues as it is capable of paying back its liabilities (411.889 million) if any unforeseeable circumstances occur. HARTA is able to do so by using current assets such as inventories, trade & other receivables, tax assets, cash, bank balances and short-term investments amounting to RM897.442 million.
 
 
PROSPECT AND CHALLENGES

HARTA has allocated RM630 million for Plant 6 and Plant 7 at their Next Generation integrated Glove Manufacturing Complex (NGC) in Sepang as well as RM115 million to integrate the Industry 4.0 technologies for all activities related to gloves production and manufacturing by connecting to computers for data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI).

HARTA said the NGC Plant 5 was fully commissioned during the quarter while first line of Plant 6 was expected to begin commissioning in Q1 2020 with annual installed capacity of 4.7 billion pieces. For Plant 7, which has commenced construction, would cater to small orders focusing more on specialty products with an annual installed capacity of 3.4 billion pieces. (Source: New Straits Times, 5 November 2019). According to managing director Kuan Mun Leong, the company’s annual installed capacity allows it to ramp up the output from the current 36.6 billion pieces of gloves to 44.7 billion pieces per annum by FY2022.

HARTA has launched the world’s first non-leaching antimicrobial glove (AMG) in United Kingdom.  The unprecedented innovation provides active protection against healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). The antimicrobial glove is developed in collaboration with antimicrobial Research and Development (R&D) company Chemical Intelligence UK, which has built-in antimicrobial technology proven to kill micro-organisms in order to prevent the spread of infections.
 
This product is set to be available in hospitals around the world and is being produced at a lower cost in order to reduce the barriers to access. With this technology, the bacteria coming into contact will be exposed to the antimicrobial activity, which in independent testing, achieved up to a 5-log (99.999 per cent) kill rate within just 5 minutes of contact. 
 
 
 
LATEST FINANCIAL RESULT
 

 
 
INSIGHT
 
In conclusion, HARTA has achieved a strong performance in FY2019 with the highest revenue, gross profit and profit after tax over the past 5 years. Its prospect remains bright as the expansion of Next Generation Integrated Glove Manufacturing Complex (NGC) is set to increase capacity from RM36.6 billion to RM44.7 billion pieces of gloves per annum by FY2022 boosted by the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies, Internet of Things and integrated manufacturing operations. The demand growth is expected to continue particularly in the near-term given the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak across the globe.
 
Also  Harta will get FDA’s approval on their antimicrobial gloves soon. Would be a big catalyst to fly.Kuan says he is expecting US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for the antimicrobial glove soon.
 
“We just started selling to about 20 countries now and the quantity is not yet significant and is very small. We will see a pick-up after we get the FDA certification. The FDA certification is key and we are targeting for it within the next one year. This is our target,” he says.
 
 

 
 
WHY IT MUST CONTINUE RALLY UP THIS JUNE?
 

1. Global demand - Rubber gloves sector to see upsides from surging world demand.

-  We maintained overweight on the rubber gloves sector with expectations of surging demand from the US due to the trade-war effect. Since Sept 1, a 15% tariff has been imposed on Chinese-made medical and vinyl gloves, which should increase their pricing versus local rubber gloves.
- We also expects the positive impact to be felt from the final quarter of the year as US gloves demand switches to local glove players, where the US accounts for 28% to 55% of glove players' group sales.
 
 
2. Glove Shortage - From oversupply to shortage due to pandemic and MCO & CMCO

- It was only last year when there were repeated concerns of an oversupply in the rubber glove industry that hogged the headlines. But the situation has completely changed today in just a span of just a few months into the year 2020 with talk of an oversupply in the rubber glove industry being firmly a thing of the past.

- The Covid-19 outbreak which is now categorised as a global pandemic has upended everything and there are now concerns of undersupply in the rubber glove industry at this very crucial time.

 
 
3. Exchange Rate USD/MYR For Export. ( Ringgit  Loser Still)

- Export-based companies: Glove makers such as Top Glove Corp Bhd and Supermax Corp Bhd - who rake in US dollar-denominated revenues, will likely see an erosion in margins this year due to the stronger ringgit, unless they can pass on the additional costs to consumers. The Manufacturer's selling price of gloves had increased from USD 25 to USD 110, an increase of 340%.
 
 
4. Low Crude Oil Prices are Still.

- Rubber glove shares wil rise when oil prices fall actually. Rubber glove also on attention while oil prices crashing. Rubber will get cheaper to make as the price of crude oil drops. Production costs will be low.
 

5. No vaccine for COVID-19 yet.

- According to WHO. Vaccine for new coronavirus 'COVID-19' could be ready in 18
months. The first vaccine targeting China’s coronavirus could be available in 18
months, so we have to do everything today using available weapons. For official its a MUST announcement by WHO.
 
 
Good luck and stay tuned! #staysafe #stayhome
 
"Only the rubber sectors will have a big jump and bright prospect for now!" 
 
 

Best regards,
 
 
Kim
The Founder Of Kim's Stockwatch
只是个人记錄,買卖自负。

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