2018年6月4日星期一

Gkent 3204喬治肯特 RM1.35 还能投资吗?

Gkent 3204技术面已转为向上,连续升三天了,股市是零和游戏,不须乱说,基本面相当好的票,股东回购公司股票10%己批准(约37344,000股),当股东与新投资者重新进入就是另一波的回档期,順势而行。rm2为中短期的目标。
大选前rm3.90个个敢買。
大选后rm1.28没有信心買。
想不通:
1)改朝換代,谁当家都会营造良好经商环境,只要公司有实力与经验再获新订单不是问题。
2)基本面没改变,手中订单依然在,被暫取消的hsr,mrt3都不是订单内的项目。
3)4.6亿现金随时可收购潜力业务。
4)公司股票回购10%将支持股价。
5)rm1.28 大折扣。
5)早前投行像HLBG,RHB,KENANGA有推荐買入,目标价都过3元,你想还会继续下跌吗?主要项目LRT3 于2020年8月完工,净利保证还有2年,也就是2019.2020财政年净利仍然美丽,你想股价都会停留在2元内吗?
6)一支基本面尚在的潜力股,30大股东内有许多外国投资者,不可能一个換政府就整盘改观,大马公信力与投资透明度仍要保持以吸引外资。
个人看法,无须追踪。







https://finance.sina.cn/usstock/mggd/2017-12-20/detail-ifypvuqe3669272.d.html?from=wap 
https://youtu.be/fTzeE940a2s 
隆新高铁未来有望复工,而东铁ecrl將会继续工程,连接至泰国。





George Kent – Downgrade to HOLD 

We downgrade GKent from Buy to Hold following the cancellation of mega rail projects such as MRT3 and HSR which it was previously targeting for. While these contracts were never imputed directly into our forecast, we reckon these cancellations would make it hard to justify GKent’s pre-GE14 valuations. Earnings over the next 3 years (FY19-21) would be supported be the LRT3 PDP role. Nonetheless, earnings sustainability beyond this is in question. Our revised SOP valuation for GKent is based on a bear case scenario using (i) NPV (WACC: 12%) for its engineering division with nil orderbook replenishment, (ii) 10x P/E for metering assuming no YoY growth and (iii) 30% discount to its net cash per share. Under this bear case scenario, our SOP based TP is reduced from RM3.25 to RM1.50.


~老板说了,股价低估时回购,现价rm1.34是低估的,哈哈!减少依賴建築业,多元化其他业务,这是穩健进取公司的作风,不会坐着等死。前景仍然俊俏。当本月公布亮眼业绩,股价又是勇态了。
未来二年的保证净利,别錯过资本增值的机会。
Ongoing projects likely to continue. We reckon that mega projects such as the MRT2 (RM32bn), LRT3 (RM12bn) will proceed as planned as work is already ongoing. Progress of MRT2 has hit 15-20% (Jan) and LRT3 at 10% (May).


~一群慌羊,用清醒的腦袋想想吧,当2019.2020财政年仍然有净利80 m至100m时,股数只有563.269m ,其eps将会是14.2至17.7仙,取pe=12信,股价为1.40至rm2.12 ,试想难到下來这二年股价只在1.50吗?啥哈,到时投行將调整目標价,相同的惰况也将发生在gamuda,mrcb,wct,ijm 
只是个人功课,无须追踪。

~
喬冶肯特競標东海岸衔接铁道计划(约10亿令吉)
喬治肯特與中國交通建設股份有限公司(CCCC)于2016年8月24日獲捷運公司(MRT)雙溪毛糯─沙登─布城(SSP)路線工程,價值10億1000萬令吉;喬治肯特在其中持股49%。












RM22b of compensation, penalty charges if ECRL cancelled


KUALA LUMPUR (June 6): If the government plans to terminate the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project, it will have to pay about RM22 billion in compensation and penalty charges, reported The Malaysian Insight.
According to the news portal, the compensation package includes payment to suppliers, dismantling costs, the loan principal, interest charges and committed orders for supplies and services.
If there are disputes over the compensation amount, it will probably be settled through arbitration, which could take several years, the portal added.
Additionally, the loan agreement with Exim Bank of China, which is providing 85% of the funding for the project, does not have a termination clause, and a contract termination would lead to a loan default that would need to be repaid within 30 business days.
Phase 1 of the RM66 billion rail link is now nearly 20% completed.

  股价1.46技术面为正面:



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