2018年6月11日星期一

gkent 3204 喬治肯特 RM1.46 浅谈技术面与Q1 2018

GKMS Technical Analysis 
RM1.46 
Summary:STRONG BUY
下道阻力于RM1.61 ,RM1.94
预计周二(12日)公布首季业绩。估计今天股价有好的表现。
个人简单计算:
a)Q1 2018净利2153万,eps=3.8仙,估计2018全年的eps=18仙,pe=12倍,股价=RM2.16
b)订单53.8亿约6%赚副为3.22亿
3.22亿/563m股数=每股57仙净利
订单佔大多数的LRT3(45亿)于2020年8月完工。
因此尚有2年时间收入,每年为57仙/2=28.5仙
水表业务每年取2000万净利计,每股净利为3.5仙
总共下来每年的每股净利(eps)为28.5+3.5=32仙
取pe=10倍,股价=RM3.20

公司的最好净利季度在末季Q4.从Q4 2016与Q4 2017 即可看出,而Q1 2018按季度Q1 2017对比其净利是+16%的,乍看之下其赚副高达21.6%.並仍持53.8亿订单与净现金3.43亿。可提供穩定的派息。起码兩年内相对安全。
只供参考,買卖自负。
https://www.investing.com/equities/george-kent-(malaysia)-bhd-technical








Commentary on prospects:
The Group has achieved yet another record set of first-quarter results. Notably, profit after tax registered at RM21.54 million, up 16% from RM18.50 million in the previous corresponding period. Construction projects were executed well and on time. The Metering business contributed significantly having grown at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% over the last three years. George Kent has positioned itself to tap on growth opportunities in Smart Metering. The potential growth for the Group from Smart Metering is significant considering it being the first mover and a market leader in the Region
The Group’s balance sheet remained strong with a net cash position of RM343.52 million with a healthy order book. Its outstanding order book of RM5.38 billion will continue to provide earnings visibility in the medium term. The Group remains optimistic for the rest of the year. - 42 Going forward, with a strong balance sheet, the Group will increase its resources substantially, in terms of manpower and financial resources, to further accelerate growth in metering and other water-related businesses as well as concessions through M&As and strategic partnerships. This is in line with the Group's long-stated Strategic Plan to broaden its income base by substantially increasing the income from the Metering and other water-related businesses and investments.
前景评论:
本集团又取得了第一季度业绩纪录。 值得注意的是,税后利润登记在
2154万令吉,比前一个季度的1850万令吉上涨16%。 施工
项目执行得很好,准时。 计量业务在2004年增长显着
过去三年的复合年增长率(CAGR)为24%。 乔治肯特已经定位
本身可以利用智能电表的增长机会。 来自Smart的本集团潜在增长.

考虑到该地区是先行者和市场领先者,计量工作意义重大.
展望未来,乔治肯特表示,鉴于其资产负债表保持强劲,截止30-4-2018公司现金达3.9674亿,债务为5322万,
净现金为3.4352亿令吉,同时订单总额达到53.8亿令吉,将大幅增加资源。
“这包括人力和财力资源,以进一步加快计量和其他水务相关业务的增长,以及通过兼并和收购和战略合作伙伴关系的优惠。
等丰收喀,老马都开声了,是hsr延迟非取消.乔治肯特目前是国內唯一的轻快铁系统工程公司, 
並拥有80名来自世界各地的专才,预料未来將能让公司在铁道工程领域占一席之地。

1)

[转贴] [GEORGE KENT MALAYSIA BHD,营收下跌] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Author:   |    Publish date: 

[GEORGE KENT MALAYSIA BHD,营收下跌]
工程:
由于二零一七年完成少数项目,季度的营收为7,299万令吉,较去年同期的9,497万令吉下跌23%。此外,LRT3项目的收入未得到确认。季度的利润为2,131万令吉,较去年同期的2,204万令吉下跌3%。这是由于LRT3项目的税后利润和2017年完成少数项目所带来的利润分成。
水表部门:
营收2,678万令吉较2017年同期的3,445万令吉低22%。由于收入下降及营运开支增加,盈利609万令吉较2017年同期的970万令吉低37​​%。
由于工程和水表部门贡献的利润下降,税前利润比上一季度下降了61%。
前景:
手上总值达53.8亿令吉的订单将在中期内提供盈利能见度。

2)George Kent (M) Bhd - Broadly Within OUTPERFORM ↑ Price: RM1.5

Date: 13/06/2018

Source : KENANGA
Stock : GKENT     Price Target : 2.20     |     Price Call : BUY
    Last Price : 1.49     |     Upside/Downside :  +0.71 (47.65%)
 


1Q19 CNP of RM18.9m came in broadly within expectations at 13% each of our/consensus estimates. No dividends declared, as expected. No changes to FY19-20E earnings. Upgrade to OUTPERFORM from UNDERPERFORM with a lower SoP driven Target Price of RM2.20 (previously, RM3.65).
Results broadly within. 1Q19 CNP of RM18.9m (excluding forex gains of c.RM2.7m) came in at 13% of our and consensus estimates. However, we deem the results to be inline as first-half performances are generally weaker and we expect a strong performance in 2H19. No dividends declared, as expected.
Results highlight. 1Q19 CNP only dipped 4% YoY despite a steep drop in revenue (-23%) as the impact was well cushioned by higher contribution from associates/joint-ventures level, which increased substantially by 479% thanks to the contribution from LRT3. The drop in revenue was driven by both its construction and metering divisions which we believe could be due to the timing of the billings for its on-going projects and meter orders. QoQ, 1Q19 CNP fell 69% underpinned by lower revenue (- 42%) mainly dragged down by its construction division, which saw 48% decrease in revenue, as they booked in several project completions in 4Q18.
Outlook. To-date, the total construction cost for LRT3 has yet to be finalized by Prasarana. Based on available data and news flow which we compiled, the construction cost for LRT3 has well exceeded RM9.0b. We are expecting the total cost for LRT3 to hover closer to RM14.0-15.0b, and we believe that the government will continue with the construction works of LRT3, as most of the contracts have already been awarded to various contractors and construction works are already in progress. While we think that LRT3 is likely to proceed, we highlight that there would be significant risk to earnings and valuations on the contrary. (Refer overleaf for more details).
Earnings estimates unchanged. Post results, we made no changes to our FY19-20E earnings.
Upgrade to OUTPERFORM. We are upgrading GKENT from UNDERPERFORM to OUTPERFORM but with a lower SoP-driven Target Price of RM2.20 (previously, RM3.65). To recap, we had previously called an UNDERPERFORM on GKENT due to its rich valuation as it traded up to FY19E PER of 17.3x. However, we see value emerging in the stock arising from the recent sell-down due to the negative news flow in the construction as several mega infrastructure projects have been scraped since the change in government. Our current TP of RM2.20 is based on; (i) 10x FY19E PER for metering, (ii) 9x FY19 PER for construction (lowered from 17x PER, previously in anticipation of low contract flows going forward), (iii) NPV of 6% PDP fees based on RM9b cost, and (iv) 30% discount to 1Q19 net cash, implying FY19E PER of 8.8x.
Key downside risks to our call are: (i) lower-than-expected margins, (ii) delay in construction works, and (iii) scrapping of LRT3 project by the government.
Source: Kenanga Research - 13 Jun 2018

3)

George Kent - It's Not All Gloom and Doom

Author:   |    Publish date: 

GKent's 1QFY19 core net profit of RM20m was deemed in line with both HLIB and consensus expectations as 2H is seasonally stronger. Core net profit declined 5% YoY mainly due to lower contribution from metering, partially offset by stronger share of JV profits attributable to LRT 3 PDP fees. The lower contribution from metering was mainly due to delays in Vietnam water meter tender which was originally expected in 1Q19. Prospect for GKent remains subdued post changes in federal government and scrapping of mega rail projects such as MRT3 and HSR in which the company is a strong contender. Nonetheless, earnings for the company over the next 3 years would be supported by the LRT3 PDP role. Raised FY20 earnings forecast by 2.1% post model adjustment. We introduce our FY21 earnings forecast of RM138.9m. We maintain our HOLD rating with higher TP of RM1.52 post earnings forecast adjustment.
Results deemed within estimates. 1QFY19 core net profit came in at RM20.3m, accounting for 14.9% of HLIB and 15.0% of consensus estimates. We deem the results inline as 2H is seasonally stronger. To illustrate, 1Q18 and 2H18 contributed 15.5% and 67.5% of FY18 core profit respectively.
QoQ: Core net profit declined 67.2% mainly due to decrease in Engineering segment revenue. This is not a concern given that 4Q is traditionally the strongest quarter for the year.
YoY: Core net profit decreased 4.9% mainly due to lower contribution from metering, partially offset by stronger share of JV profits attributable to LRT3 PDP fees. The lower contribution from metering was mainly due to delays in the Vietnam water meter tender which was originally expected in 1Q19.
Outlook. Prospects for GKent remains subdued post changes in the government after GE14 and scrapping of mega rail projects such as MRT3 and HSR in which the company is a strong contender. Moreover, the domestic construction industry landscape is expected to remain challenging and we do not expect a significant improvement in near term. Nonetheless, earnings for the company over the next 3 years would be supported by the LRT3 PDP role.
Forecast. Raised FY20 earnings forecast by 2.1% post model adjustment. We introduce our FY21 earnings forecast of RM138.9m.
Maintain HOLD, TP: RM1.52. Maintained HOLD with higher SOP-derived TP of RM1.52 (from RM1.50) post earnings forecast adjustment. Our SOP valuation for GKent is based on (i) NPV (WACC: 12%) for its engineering division with nil orderbook replenishment, (ii) 10x P/E for metering assuming no YoY growth and (iii) 20% discount to its net cash per share. Our valuation is based on bear case scenario for the company to reflect slowing mega rail job flows and earnings sustainability issue post completion of LRT3 which is expected in FY22.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 13 Jun 2018
4)

George Kent Malaysia - Navigating In a New Landscape

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Maintain NEUTRAL, and a new MYR1.66 TP, from MYR3.82, with expected total return of 13%. 1QFY19 PATAMI met, at 19% of our full year forecast. The lower TP is from changes to our SOP valuation to reflect the construction industry's domestic operating landscape shift. This raises the question of earnings sustainability for the sector. We lower FY19F-20F earnings 1-4% on housekeeping. We see LRT3 PDP fee recognition (booked under a 50% JV) picking up. On the continuous effort to diversify earnings base, GKent is working to expand metering and water-related investments, organically (in the process of commercialising smart meters), and via M&As. Strong MYR5.3bn orderbook could keep its engineering segment busy for 3-5 years.
1QFY19 (Jan) revenue fell 23% YoY and 42% QoQ, as both engineering (-23% YoY and -48% QoQ to MYR73m) and metering (-22% YoY and -26% QoQ to MYR27m) segment chalked in lower revenue. The decline in engineering was from the completion of fewer projects in 2017, and 50% share contribution in Light Rail Transit 3 (LRT3) project delivery partner (PDP) role recognised under the JV line. PATAMI was +16% YoY to MYR21.5m, as the JV contributed PBT of MYR9.2m (1Q18: MYR1.7m, 4Q18: MYR7.9m). Yet, on sequential basis, it declined nearly 59%, primarily from lumpy recognition in 4Q18. No dividend was declared. Its balance sheet was healthy, with a net cash of MYR362m.
Adapting to the new environment. The engineering segment's activities for the next 3-5 years are anchored by its MYR5.3bn orderboook. The key question remains on earnings sustainability. The orderbook replenishment prospect could remain soft in view of the construction sector's current state, particularly rail-related projects. Balancing this is a continuous effort to further expand its metering business (working to commercialise smart metering products), organically and via M&A. Also, George Kent intends to grow recurring income in water-related investments. Pending more concrete development, we keep our growth forecast for this segment. We expect PATAMI to grow at an organic rate of 3-5%.
Maintain NEUTRAL. We revised our SOP valuation to arrive at a new MYR1.66 TP, with a 10x P/E for its metering segment FY19F PATAMI of MYR23m, switching from P/E to NPV at a discount rate of 13% for its engineering segment and adding the latest net cash of MYR362m. Our call is premised on the expectation that risk in the sector remains high in the nearterm. Our forecasts and valuation are built on the assumption that all existing engineering contracts and respective terms would remain unchanged.
Source: RHB Securities Research - 13 Jun 2018
5)

12th June QR : GKent

Author:   |    Publish date:   |  >> Read article in Blog website



GKent : up up rebound ... reported profit up again ... EPS RM3.80

6)HSR project postponed, not scrapped, Dr M tells Japanese media (updated)


  • NATION
  • Tuesday, 12 Jun 2018








PETALING JAYA: Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad seemed to have walked back from an earlier decision when he told a Japanese publication that the high-speed rail project had been merely postponed, not cancelled.
Speaking to Nikkei Asian Review on the sidelines of the Future of Asia conference in Tokyo, he said Malaysia cannot afford the project at this moment but signalled that the door is still open.
“We cannot say we will never have high-speed rail (HSR) in Malaysia. What we can do is we can postpone the project because it is far too costly at this moment,” he said.
Dr Mahathir said Malaysia would need an HSR but it is something to only consider in the future.
After being sworn in as prime minister, he had announced on May 28 that Malaysia will be dropping the HSR project with Singapore, citing it as an “unnecessary project”.
However, in his interview with Nikkei Asian Review, Dr Mahathir commented that the Singapore HSR project is merely postponed.
“We actually postponed the implementation of that project.
“High-speed trains are most effective where the distance is very long. But where the distance is short, it doesn't contribute much.
“So we need to rethink high-speed rail,” he said.
Dr Mahathir also suggested the possibility of building an HSR “right through the Peninsula”.
“We cannot say we will never have high-speed rail in Malaysia – there will be a need for high-speed rail in the future,” he said.
Last month, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng also said the Government’s decision to scrap the HSR project was not only due to the high price tag of building it, but also steep cost burden to maintain the 350km link in the longer term.
This decision was also part of cost-cutting moves to slash the federal government debt of over RM1 trillion, Lim said.
He told the South China Morning Post that the new administration estimated the initial cost of the high-speed rail project was likely to be more than RM100bil.
Singapore’s Ministry of Transport said it had yet to receive an 
official notification that the 
project had been cancelled.
http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/391395