2016年8月25日星期四

转贴:德成控股押注于太阳能电池板业务

2016-8-24
a)



由于全球对再生能源的需求不断增长,各国为此启动了各种各样的再生能源
项目,包括大规模的水力发电厂、风力发电厂及太阳能系统。
业务简介
德成控股(Tek Seng Holdings)是一家于2002年成立的马来西亚公司,它起初是
从事聚氯乙烯(polyvinyl chloride,以下简称PVC)相关产品及聚丙烯
(polypropylene)非织造产品的生产及贸易。近年来,集团开始制造太阳能
电池板
截至FY15,太阳能电池板业务为集团的收入带来最大的贡献,占了51.5%
超越了PVC薄膜制造业务,后者的贡献下跌至36.4%。
德成控股的股价从一年前的0.38令吉升高了超过两倍,并在2016年8月22日
以1.31令吉报收。由于这只股的升势凌厉,我们特别为大家深入报道了这只股
,看看市场对再生能源的需求是否可以令公司的股价更上一层楼。
财务表现
在FY15,集团于马来西亚及台湾的业务为其收入带来71.3%贡献。
尽管FY13的表现有点失色,但整体而言,集团过去四年在收入、净利及股本
回报率方面均有进步。从FY11至FY15,集团的净利差不多提高了两倍,
而在同一期间,收入则接近翻倍。德成控股最令人鼓舞的成绩是股本回报率,
后者自FY13以来增加超过10个百分点,显示其盈利以高效率增长。
德成控股公布了十分强劲的1H16业绩,净利报3,130万令吉,已经超越了
FY15全年获得的净利
此外,太阳能电池板业务预期会为集团的FY16收入带来大约70%贡献,
鉴于其获得的订单已经一直排至今年底。 因此,投资者今年可能获得
更高的派息。
增加生产线
先进科技让太阳能电池板的功效更高,而且成本比之前更低,因此对太阳能
系统的需求越来越大。为了应付强大的需求,德成控股计划提高太阳能
电池板的制造产能,从目前每个月的560万块增加至每月1,000万块。
集团目前拥有7条生产线,其中3条在下个月将会全面运作。公司也计划至
2016年底添加两条生产线,让其生产线的数目增加至9条。德成控股估计,
一旦其9条生产线开始全面运作,公司每年可以生产1亿5,600万块太阳能
电池板,基于目前的市值计算,总值达到2亿3,400万美元。
再生能源受到重视
马来西亚的能源、绿色工艺及水务部(Ministry of Energy, Green Technology
 and Water,以下简称KeTTHA)提议在今年建造一个250兆瓦(MW)、
属于公用事业规模的太阳能发电厂,显示市场对再生能源的需求越来越大。
KeTTHA承认,马来西亚离开其使用再生能源的目标还有一段很长的路要走,
并计划增加以再生能源来发电的规模。除了发展公用事业规模的太阳能设施外
,马来西亚政府也批准了一个名为净计量电价(net energy metering,
以下简称NEM)机制。NEM机制让消费者安装太阳能电池板在楼宇的顶部,
日间由太阳能电池板产生的电量可从消费者的电费单中扣除。
虽然政府鼓励全民使用更多再生能源对德成控股是一大优势,但我们对集团
是否能获得公营项目的合约保持谨慎。KeTTHA 最近把在雪兰莪英达岛
(Pulau Indah)开设一座新1,000MW发电厂的合约直接颁给TADMAX资源
(Tadmax Resources)引来媒体的严厉批评。马来西亚媒体指出,这是在过去两年
,发电厂项目第三次直接颁发给一家公司。
总结
基于德成控股过去12个月的每股盈利,其股票目前的估值是本益比的9倍,
而它目前的交易价稍微低于其1.43令吉的52周高位。
尽管其估值合理,们对德成控股保持中立。虽然其订单排至2016年底,
但2017年可能出现变数。由于太阳能电池板在竞争加剧及生产效能提高下
变得越来越便宜,德成控股的毛利在不久后可能会下降。

b)太阳能价格趋势:
http://www.energytrend.cn/solars.html

c)

全球太陽能報價急跌 昇陽科 7月營收月減34.8%

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160802000220-260206


d)
看完就知這行业的前景了,以台湾为例投资种电行业回酬有8,7%,
留意7200tekseng的前景了。Tekseng 幸福的未來己看到,
全球减碳排放,环保意识抬头,这太阳能行业是趋势.。



e)Britishempire 兄之分享:
As we can observe, the revenue of the company had increased 1080% and net profit had triple or increase 373.05% due to their successful diversification to solar cell manufacturing business. Besides that, the EBIT of Tek Seng also increased from 7% to 9% due to the explosive contribution of their solar cell business. Below are a more detail breakdown of Tek Seng in terms of product segment. 




Tek Seng are expected to generate higher net profit since their management had decided to expand 7 manufacturing line in their solar cell manufacturing. Their order book had been filled up for the year of 2016 and 1Q2017. Despite for the high order book for their solar cell manufacturing business, the whole outlook of solar energy sector are promising as well. Below the global solar forecast base on Mercom Capital Group, LLC. 



The ratification of Paris Accord last year means that the world are going to invest more in renewable energy sector especially the solar energy. Besides that, the extension of Investment Tax Credit in the United States had become another catalyst that contribute to the booming of solar energy sector. Hence, according to Bloomberg, the solar installation industry in the United States are expected to double over the next five year. Besides that, China are expected to install approximately 19.5GW of solar cell panel in 2016 and the figure expected to fourfold within 5 years due to air pollution continues to drive China’s environmental policies, of which clean power generation is a big part. Officials from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) are considering raising the 2020 target from 100 GW to 150 GW, which will bring about 21 GW of annual installation between 2016 through 2020. China also has pledged to reach an ‘emissions peak’ around 2030 with non-fossil fuels making up 20 percent of the nation’s energy generation mix, according to the report issue by Renewable Energy World. In short, the fantastic sector outlook for renewable energy will be able to drive Tek Seng well in the future.