2016年7月24日星期日

转贴:Padini’s sales expected to remain resilient

1)Date: 25/07/2016 

Source : AMMB
Stock : PADINI     Price Target : 3.00     |     Price Call : BUY
    Last Price : 2.62     |     Upside/Downside :  +0.38 (14.50%)
 



This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 25, 2016.

Padini Holdings Bhd
(July 22, RM2.61)

Maintain buy with a higher fair value (FV) of RM3: We maintain “buy” on Padini Holdings Bhd, with a higher FV of RM3 per share, versus RM2.70 per share previously. Our fair value for Padini is based on a financial year 2017 forecast (FY17F) price-earnings ratio of 13 times. Padini’s foreign shareholding is 25% currently.
We have raised Padini’s FY16F and FY17F earnings estimates by 7% and 11% respectively, as earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin and sales during the recent Raya festive period were better than expected.
We remain positive on Padini’s prospects as sales are expected to remain resilient, supported by the affordable pricing of its products. We like Padini for its: i) strong brand recognition; ii) sterling earnings track record; iii) wide distribution network and iv) dominant position in the retail and apparel industry.
We believe Padini’s earnings momentum would continue into FY17F, underpinned by the opening of six new stores in the first half of the financial year.
The six stores are expected to consist of three concept stores and three brand outlets. These stores include those that would be located in Sunway Velocity Mall, Design Village in Penang and Aeon Melawati.
We have assumed a sales growth per store of 12.9% in FY17F, compared with 15.3% in FY16F. Same-store sales growth was 18% y-o-y for concept stores and 9% y-o-y for brands outlets in the first nine months of FY16.
We expect Padini’s pre-tax profit margin to improve in FY17F, supported by appreciation of the ringgit against the yuan.
As such, we have raised our assumption of Padini’s Ebit margin from 14.5% previously to 15.5% each in FY16F and FY17F. Since the beginning of the year, the ringgit has appreciated by 9.7% against the yuan. About 90% of Padini’s inventories are sourced from suppliers in China.
We believe there is minimal threat from online boutiques as selling prices of Padini’s apparel at its physical stores are still attractive. Presently, Padini’s online shop, which commenced operations in November 2015, generates less than RM100,000 of revenue.
Padini’s balance sheet is clean as reflected in the net cash per share of 24 sen as at end-March 2016. Free cash flows are estimated at 28 sen per share in FY17F, compared with an estimated 21 sen per share in FY16F. — AmInvestment Bank, July 22
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/padini%E2%80%99s-sales-expected-remain-resilient

2)Valuation 
We value Padini at RM2.95/share based on 14x CY17 EPS. We believe Padini’s
deserves to trade close to its 5-year historical peak valuation of 15.5x underpinned by
1) strong 3-year earnings CAGR of 10% in FY17/FY20, 2) growing value-for-money
segment via its Brands Outlets stores, 3) well-managed financials, and 4) diminishing
investable retailers within consumer sector.
Our target PE of 14x is a lower than the industry average of 15.6x in FY17 (see Table
1). This is justifiable considering Padini market capitalisation is lower than peers’
average. Hence, we initiate coverage on Padini with a BUY recommendation
22/07/2016 16:17

3)增设6店.马币稳健.巴迪尼财测上调[size=14.994px]巴迪尼控股(PADINI,7052,主板消费品组)今明两财政年财测调高7%与11% 



(吉隆坡22日讯)巴迪尼控股(PADINI,7052,主板消费品组)在马增设6店,加上马币兑人民币今年回升9.7%,料可提振这个财政年营运赚益1%至15.5%,大马投行调高其今明两财政年财测7%与11%。 
新增设3间专卖店和3家品牌店,加上90%库存供应自中国,分析员预期营运盈利可上扬1%,由14.5%升至15.5%。 
“预测2017财政年营收增长13%至12亿7000万令吉,主要受6新店开张拉抬,总体每店销售增长料达12.9%。” 
最新的首9个月业绩显示,专卖店每店销售增长18%,品牌店销售按年增长9%。 
大马投行指出,过去5个财政年,专卖店和品牌店各占营收55%至66%,其价格捆绑策略料可巩固2017财政年业绩,售价在目前消费情绪低迷时尚负担得起;专店每客平均消费90令吉,品牌店则为80令吉。 
“我们相信,基于服饰设计每月翻新,自中国的设计每两个月就送抵大马销售,自有吸引力。” 





该公司2015年11月开始网络行销,不预期这些业务短期作显著贡献,多数网购来自沙、砂两州。 
该行也不预期网上时尚服饰店,会抢走实体店业务,客户喜到体店感受衣饰设计,且价格也属可负担得起。 
该公司资产负债盈亏表健全,2016与2017财政年每股有21仙与28仙现金流,预测2017财年将保持慷慨总派息10仙,周息率4%。估计股本回酬30%,2016财政年20%,预测2016年6月杪截止财政年达30%。 
大马投行维持巴迪尼控股“买进”评级,目标价为3令吉。