2016年5月18日星期三

浅谈padini Q3业绩---





1)
 rolling 4 quarters--
eps=17.97 sen
nta=0.70
dps=11.5 sen
pe=12.8
roe=25.67
dy=5
52w  ;1.29--2.49

公司于31-3-2016 累积净利达3.84亿,Q3净利3513万(5.34SEN)
派息4SEN免税息,1-6-16除权,29-6-16派送.
9个月净利达1亿(15.2SEN),己打破2012年至2015年的整年净利,
表现优势,Q4想信也有好的净利,PADINI不失为成长与收息股.
公司于31-3-2016 债务为6549万,现金为2.2亿
  净现金达1.54亿。 每股 净现金达23sen.
 这种公司经菅一流,好远见,創新都是立足市场的领头羊,
rm2,30買入,全年股息11,5sen,dy=5%,当長期飯票,取得资本增值和等红股,乱市中不失为镇中之宝.
放心,三间投行推荐目標价rm2.75~2.78 ,当Q4业积利好,
他们将提高target price 至rm3.10 ,買入与守住是良策.
Performance Review;

Year-on-year, revenues for the quarter under review have risen by nearly 21%
(RM58.7 million).
This increase was driven mainly by strong growth from existing stores (18%
 and 9% respectively
for the Padini Concept Stores and the Brands Outlet stores), as well as by
revenues generated
from new stores opened. Compared to the previous year’s corresponding
quarter, the quarter
under review had an additional 5 Padini Concept Stores and 8 Brands Outlet
stores in operations.
The greatly improved revenues had certainly been timely. The considerable
 weakening of the
Ringgit vis-à-vis the Chinese Yuan and the US Dollar during the second half
of the 2015 calendar
year had driven up the costs of our merchandise. As we have kept our retail
 prices largely unchanged,
the gross margins earned during the quarter under review have also contracted
 by about 2.8%
year-on-year. Despite the lower gross margins earned, profit before taxation
for the quarter still
grew year-on-year by nearly 18.8% (RM7.3 million) to RM46.3 million on the
 back of the
expanded revenues and the smaller increase in operating expenses.

7052                 PADINI                 PADINI HOLDINGS BHD            
              Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/03/2016            
             
Quarter:3rd Quarter
Financial Year End:30/06/2016
Report Status:Unaudited
Submitted By:

Current Year QuarterPreceding Year Corresponding QuarterCurrent Year to DatePreceding Year Corresponding Period
31/03/201631/03/201531/03/201631/03/2015
RM '000RM '000RM '000RM '000
1Revenue342,367283,622952,318755,960
2Profit/Loss Before Tax46,28138,970135,11389,824
3Profit/Loss After Tax and Minority Interest35,13026,593100,03062,045
4Net Profit/Loss For The Period35,13026,593100,03062,045
5Basic Earnings/Loss Per Shares (sen)5.344.0415.209.43
6Dividend Per Share (sen)4.002.509.007.50
As At End of Current QuarterAs At Preceding Financial Year End
7Net Assets Per Share (RM)0.70000.6200


2)转贴,取自https://www.facebook.com/fatainvesting/,谢谢他的功课。
先谈谈为何早前不大期待 PADINI Q3 (1-3月)的业绩吧。
.
首先我们必须了解,以往从 Q2 进入 Q3 的时候,
Revenue 过去多年几乎 8 成都是 QoQ 下滑的。
下滑幅度在 8% 至双位数不等。
.
其中 2015年 Q3 为例外,
不单止没有下滑,反而还 QoQ 双位数暴涨。
主要的推动力源自 GST 实行前消费者囤货的心态。
.
我所指的期待不高,是指不敢期待 PADINI Q3 YoY
仍然能像 Q1 & Q2 的 YoY 那么强劲,
Revenue 以高双位数成长,
而净利更是以超过 50% 的幅度强劲成长。
.
原因。。。不是因为今年 Q3 不够好, 
而是因为去年的囤货效应太强了。
整体而言,我对公司管理层的市场销售方向是保持正面的。
如果比预期中好,就当作是 bonus。
我从去年的这个时候左右开始,
就已经分享过个人认为 PADINI 在 GST era 走 High class pasar malam 路线,
是在这个时期的市场景气中,没有办法之中最好的办法。如今多个季度的
业绩都显示这个行销策略凑效。
.
基于去年 Q3 太强了,所以今年 Q3 的 Revenue 保守估计可能 YoY % 
只有单位数,盈利成长只是个普通的双位数(15-20%)。
早前 RM2.23 -> RM1.93 的调整,可能是在反映着市场对它的期待下滑。
同时,大部分人都普遍认为,Q4 自古以来都是 PADINI 最差劲的季度。
.
所以基于 Q3 - Q4 的预期表现都不高,
加上 Director Chan Kwai Heng 持有 1 百万股也丢了 330k 股,
综合这些因素,大概是造成 PADINI 利好因素出尽的情况下被卖方打压。
.
我个人之所以看着技术图呈现 Head & Shoulders 和预见这些不利因素仍然
有勇气持有它,是因为相信市场普遍打错算盘,忽略了一个以往没有的重点因素
,或者是他们其实知道,只是特地制造悲观气氛和画图吓人打压,企图把纯图
表派的人洗出去,趁低吸纳。
.
这个关键主要有两个:
.
1. 技术面方面,虽然表面上看是 head & shoulders,
可是小5波形成 head & shoulders 的位置,和小4波 RM1.80-2.00 盘整位置
距离其实很近。支撑颈线与前阻力距离几乎一致。所以即使跌破应该也会
马上反弹。(当然,我当时主要也是相信自己的眼光而鼓起勇气走下去守住
这一关,事发当时也没有十足把握)。
.
2. 至于基本面方面,关键就是在于,和以往多个财政年不同的地方是,
今年 Q4 很大可能将会大跌眼镜,成为全年最强劲的季度表现之一,
或者至少不会像往年般弱势。
.
原因?很简单。。。
.
今年的马来人开斋节,经过数年的岁月,
已经渐渐提前到 7月初了。
所以开斋节前买过年衣的效应,以往都是发生在 Q1 (7-9月),
可是,今年将会在 6月尾前进账。
.
同时,PADINI 这 1-2年里,
已经算是成功转型,马来友族占的市场份额已经明显提升。
目前主攻的市场,已经不是以往的城市 shopping mall 华人市场,
而是把逛 Pasar Malam 的马来友族市场给抢过来。
.
我们不难发现,PADINI 的分店每当有促销时,
马来友族的人流比以往多了很多,有时甚至是占人流里的大多数。
在这种情况下,今年 Q4 (4-6月)的业绩,
不大可能还会像往年般疲弱,反而会相当强劲。
.
许多城市里中高收入的投资者去年都喜欢用自己的眼光来衡量 PADINI 的行
销策略,进而在 RM1.30-1.40 的时候看淡 PADINI 的前景。他们都忽略眼前
的行销策略,并不是为了他们而主打的。
不管我们如何弹它的布料品质,弹它做坏自己的品牌形象,弹它会面对网购
的竞争,这些因素,对这个阶段的市场策略而言,是影响不大的。如果以
价格对比素质和款式选择而言,整体上它仍然是目前市场上做得最成功之一。
.
当然,开斋节效应也只不过是一次性的,
我认为整体而言公司的行销策略和管理凑效,所以接下来几个季度
应该都可以交出令人满意的业绩。
在 GST 的年代里,许多业者都因为商用产业各大小阶层都中 GST,
而在维持经营成本上面对很大的困扰。
通过一位论坛网友 Kinwing 的分享,
PADINI 自从安装使用一个叫 SAP 的软件来管理仓库和存货的运作后,
Cash cycle 改善了很多。。。降低到 70 天那么低。
个人觉得除了可以有效地跟进存货的进出流量之外,
流量提升了,囤货少了,对仓库的依赖就自然大大减低了。
减少仓库,自然就会间接减低其他和商用产业有关,大大小小会中 GST 
的开支都减少了。在 GST 的年代里,我认为仓库的效率将会是服装业
必须面对的挑战之一,而这点我们可以看到 PADINI 的管理也略胜一筹。


專門店銷售增長‧巴迪尼第三季淨利揚32%3)2016-05-19 09:07
(吉隆坡18日訊)專門店業務增長,抵銷馬幣走疲推高成本衝擊,巴迪尼控股
(PADINI,7052,主板消費品組)截至2016年3月31日第三季淨利上揚
32.1%至3千513萬令吉,首9個月淨利也提高61.2%至1億零3萬令吉。


第三季營業額揚20.7%至3億4千236萬7千令吉,首9個月營收揚26%至
9億5千231萬8千令吉。


派息4仙
董事部建議每股派發2.5仙中期息和1.5仙特別息,除權日同為下月1日。
該公司在報告中說,第三季專門店與品牌店營收各增長18%與9%,惟基於
馬幣兌美元、人民幣走疲原料成本上漲,導致賺益按年跌2.8%,惟營收擴大
也使稅前盈利揚18.8%。

展望未來,該公司認為,開齋節即將到來為財政年最後一個月推動銷售,
有望帶動現財政年盈利寫新高。

4)

Padini - 3QFY16 above expectations

Author: kltrader   |   Publish date: Thu, 19 May 2016, 11:35 AM 

Maintain HOLD

3QFY6/16 results beat estimates whereby sales were driven by strong organic growth and
new stores. While a fourth interim net DPS of 2.5sen was in line, a 1.5sen special net DPS
came as a surprise. We increase FY16-18 earnings by 4-10%. Our higher TP of MYR2.30
(+30sen) is pegged to 11x FY17 PER (from 10.5x CY16 PER).

Strong topline growth

3QFY16 net profit was MYR35.1m (+32% YoY, +6% QoQ), bringing 9MFY16 net profit to
 MYR100.0m (+61.2% YoY) and accounting for 83%/91% of our/consensus’ FY16 estimates.
 3QFY16’s YoY earnings were driven by: (1) strong organic growth whereby same-store s
ales growth (SSSG) was +18% and +9% at Padini Concept Store and Brands Outlet
respectively; and (2) contribution from new outlets as Padini had opened 13 new stores
in 9MFY16. Meanwhile, we also believe the seasonally stronger 3QFY16 was lifted by the
 Chinese New Year shopping season and Padini’s affordable merchandise pricing and
aggressive year-round promotions.

Increase earnings forecasts and TP

We revise FY16/17/18 net profit forecasts by +10%/+4%/+6% following our key assumption
 adjustments (i.e. revenue and opex). Consequently, we increase our TP by 30sen to MYR2.30
pegged to 11x FY17 PER (from 10.5x CY16 PER). Our 11x peg is at 1-year forward PER mean
 and we believe it is fair premised on current soft consumer sentiment and intense competition
 in the fashion retail industry.

Hari Raya shopping impact in 4QFY16

We expect sales volume to seasonally ease in Apr-May 2016 before the pre-Hari Raya shopping
season takes place in Jun 2016 (one month earnings impact in 4QFY16). Nonetheless, we
believe near-term earnings growth would be supported by sustained organic growth and
new outlets as Padini has identified at least four new outlets to be opened in FY17.
Source: Maybank Research - 19 May 2016

5)

Padini Holdings Berhad - On Track to Make History

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Thu, 19 May 2016, 09:50 AM

9M16 net profit of RM100.0m (+61.2% YoY) beat our (96%) and market (91%) 
expectations due to higher-than-expected profit margins. FY16 DPS of 11.5 sen
 is within our expectation. Earnings forecasts upgraded by 19.7%-26.3% after 
assuming higher profit margin. Upgrade to Outperform (from Market Perform)
 with higher Target Price of RM2.78 (from RM2.21). Our upgrade is premised on
 solid earnings growth which is on track to achieve record profit level, and sturdy 
balance sheet to support dividend pay-out.
Above expectations. 9M16 net profit of RM100.0m (+61.2% YoY) was above expectations
 by matching 96% of our in-house forecast and 91% of the consensus’. The positive deviation
 can be attributed to higher-than-expected profit margins due to the turnaround in Seed and
 Vincci segments. As expected, a 4th interim DPS of 2.5 sen was declared on top of a special
 DPS of 1.5 sen, lifting YTD DPS to 11.5 sen which is close to our forecast of 12.0 sen for FY16.
YoY, 9M16 revenue surged 26.0% to RM952.3m driven by additional sales from 13 new
 outlets (5 Padini Concept and 8 Brands Outlet) as well as strong sales growth from its
existing stores. Gross profit grew slower than revenue by 22.5% to RM402.9m as gross
margin was 1.2ppt lower due to the higher costs of merchandise arising from weaker MYR.
However, net profit managed to jump by 61.2% to RM100.0m due to the lower selling and
 distribution expenses allocation (from 25.8% to 23.4% of revenue) and lower effective tax
 rate (from 30.9% to 26.0%).
QoQ, 3Q16 revenue was flattish (+0.6%) at RM342.4m as both quarters were boosted by
 seasonality (year-end and Chinese New Year, respectively). However, gross profit grew 4.7%
 to RM142.3m as gross margin expanded by 1.7ppt which we think can be attributable to
lower merchandising costs due to the stronger MYR vis-à-vis 2Q16. As a result, net profit
inched up by 6.2% to RM35.1m.
Flying high above headwinds. We are buoyed by the strong set of results that was a
chieved on the back of weak consumer sentiment throughout the year. We believe Padini
 has adopted the right strategy in focusing on the value-for-money segment in Brand Outlet
 while the business restructuring in Vincci and Seed has also borne fruit. Moving forward,
we expect the earnings momentum to be sustained, underpinned by the strong brand profile
 of the Group and the continuous expansion in new stores.
Earnings forecasts upgraded. Our FY16E and FY17E net profits were lifted by 19.7%
and 26.3%, respectively, after assuming higher profit margins.
Upgrade to Outperform (from Market Perform) with higher Target Price of RM2.78
 (from RM2.21).Correspondingly, with the earnings upgrade, our TP is raised to RM2.78,
based on unchanged 13x PER FY17E, which is on par with +0.5SD over its 5-year mean.
 Our TP offers upside of 21% from the last latest closing price; thus, rating is upgraded to
Outperform. Fundamentally, we think the positive revision is warranted by its solid earnings
 growth (54.5% and 13.8% in the next 2 years) and strong balance sheet position
(net cast of RM155.3m or 23.6 sen/share) which can support its dividend pay-out.
Valuation is not too demanding considering the Group is on track to achieve its highest
 ever net profit in FY16.
Source: Kenanga Research - 19 May 2016

6)
巴迪尼 增长动力强劲
2016-05-20 12:29



目标价:2.70令吉
最新进展
巴迪尼控股(PADINI,7052,
主板消费产品股)截至3月杪第三季,
净利按年扬32.1%至3513万令吉,
并宣布派发股息及特别股息共4仙。
第三季营业额按年涨20.71%,
至3亿4236万7000令吉。
公司当季宣布派发每股1.5仙特别股息
,及每股2.5仙的中期股息。
首9个月,净利按年增61.22%至
1亿3万令吉;营业额录得
9亿5231万8000令吉,
按年涨25.97%。
行家建议
巴迪尼控股维持强劲的增长动力,最新业绩符合我们的预测,但超越市场预测,
分别占全年预测的83%和91%。
由于旗下的概念店以及Brands Outlet改变定价政策及经销策略,
促使同店销售增长率(SSSG)在第三季,分别增长9%和18%,
反观一些同行则陷入下跌。
不过,盈利赚幅在第三季与首三季,则从去年同期的44%及43%,降低至42%,
这不令人惊讶,因为令吉走弱提高了经销成本。
我们仍维持“买入”评级,目标价额也从2.50令吉,上修至2.70令吉。


大马投行 http://www.nanyang.com/node/762176?tid=462