2015年6月28日星期日

7252 teoseng rm1.56 買入

--7252 teoseng rm 1.56 buy in,2015年估计有 eps=rm0.15 ,pe=15 ,价位=rm 2.25
--这是此股的常态,丢到你怕,然後又慢慢来起回,最迟8月份的Q2 会回升,公布不错业积与股息(最少3 sen),另3sen 于Q3时11月公布,现只是以2015年eps=rm0.15 算,pe=10 倍交易,价位明显低估了,快乐旦现价rm1.50 正在大平賣,哈哈!别忘了鸡旦是每天必吃食品,人类主要旦百质耒源,没有市塲问题.

a)Teo Seng Capital - A strong start to FY15 BUY

Date: 19/05/2015

Source : AMMB
Stock : TEOSENG     Price Target : 2.70     |     Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 1.57     |     Upside/Downside :  +1.13 (71.97%)



- We reaffirm our BUY rating on Teo Seng Capital (TSC) with an unchanged fair value of RM2.70/share. This is based on an unchanged fully-diluted FY15F PE of 13x.
- TSC reported revenue of RM112.6mil and net profit of RM17.4mil for its 1QFY15. The results met 25% of our full-year FY15F earnings estimate of RM70mil.
- The group’s 1QFY15 earnings had surged by a commendable 70% YoY on the back of a 30% rise in revenue. The improved performance can be mainly attributed to the availability of new production capacity following the addition of a new farm (~400,000 eggs/day) at end-FY14 as well as higher egg selling prices.
- Sequentially, TSC’s net profit had slipped by 3% although its revenue had increased by 4% (in tandem with the higher sales volume and stable ASP). We are however, not too concerned as the decline was mainly due to 1QFY15’s higher tax rate. As it is, TSC’s PBT was higher by 8% QoQ.
- As usual, no dividends were announced this quarter. At the current price, our FY15F-FY17F gross DPS forecasts (based on payout ratios of 25%-35%) translate into attractive yields of 3% to 5%.
- Looking ahead, we expect TSC to register sequentially softer earnings in 2QFY15 due to the seasonality effect and to a smaller extent, the impact of GST on overall consumer sentiment. That said, we are confident of its earnings picking up in 2HFY15 (as per its historical trend) in view of strong demand during the festive periods (e.g. Hari Raya and Deepavali) and addition of a new farm.
- We also expect the group’s EBITDA margins to continue expanding (QoQ: +1ppts; YoY: +5ppts), buoyed in part by the soft commodity prices. According to the USDA, ending global inventory of soybean is forecast to rise by 12.5% from 2014/2015F to 2015F/2016F, underpinned by higher carry-over inventory from the US and Brazil while that of corn is set to grow by 11%.
- Additionally, the group is set to reap potential savings from its various cost management activities beginning FY15F. We understand that its biogas plant-ups are progressing well, with the first (of five) plant on schedule for completion this year (savings of up to RM2mil p.a.). The construction of its new feedmill plant and installation of new paper tray machine are also going on as planned.
- We are leaving our FY15F-FY17F earnings estimates unchanged for now. Valuation-wise, the stock is presently trading at an undemanding fully-diluted forward PE of only 9x - half the sector’s average of 18x.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 19 May 2015
b)
c)
由amresearch提供的潮成在大马及新国的市场份额
A.jpg (43.26 KB, 下载次数: 0)
A.jpg


照2015年3月11日的报告,请看以下:

那份amresearch里的第5页有解释,这里就从中总结一点鸡蛋股的产能及市场份额排行,
还有一些报告里teoseng的资料:
以下的数据相信都是大约或进位退位后的数字

蛋产(produce)排行(全马):
1. huat lai - 日产3.9百万粒,或14% of total
2. ql resources - 日产3.2百万粒@10% of total
3. teoseng - 日产3.1百万粒@10% of total
4. lay hong - 7% of total
5. ltkm - 5% of total

附加
1. teoseng打算增加1.9百万粒产量
2. teoseng排在第三,其中的理由包括teoseng沒有在东马运作,因为若只算西马,
teoseng是排行第2的
3. 在2015年5月19日的amresearch报告里有提到teoseng有新农场而多了0.4百万的产量
,如果其他没有更动的话,teoseng会以日产3.5百万排行全国第2大出产商

在大马的市场份额方面(market share):
1. huat lai - 9.02%
2. teoseng - 6.46%
3. ql resources - 4.94%
4. lay hong - 3.97%
5. ltkm - 2.79%
6. 其他 - 73%
上面多了0.18%是因为“其他”是根据报告里的饼图,上面5间有小数点则是从线图拿的

附加:
1. teoseng打算在FY2019时达到大马12%的市场份额

在新国的市场份额方面(market share):
1. huat lai - 24.12%
2. teoseng - 16.23% - 日出口0.9百万粒
3. ltkm - 11.57%
4. lay hong - 6.42%
5. 新国当地鸡蛋商 - 29%
6. 其他大马鸡蛋商 - 12.89% (从大马-非teoseng的55%减去huat lai, ltkm和
lay hong后的巴仙)
上面多了0.23%是因为“新国当地鸡蛋商”和“其他大马鸡蛋商”是根据报告里的饼图,
上面4间有小数点则是从线图拿的

附加:
1. 大马日出口去新国的有4百万粒
2. 既然新国当地鸡蛋商是29%,其余来自大马,那么新国的每日鸡蛋需求量大约
是5.63百万粒
3. teoseng打算把蛋产去新国的每年增加0.4百万粒并希望增加7%的市场份额,
从而达至23%

跳回大马:
以teoseng日产3.1百万粒,出口0.9百万粒,剩下2.2百万粒给大马,而这占6.46%,
就是说大马每日鸡蛋需求量是大约34百万或3.4千万
d)潮成集团非执行董事刘团源表示:

1. 预计在未来4至5年内,拨出2亿令吉资本开销,提高鸡蛋的每日产量62.5%至520万个
(根据报章-目前每日产320万个鸡蛋)/(根据AmResearch-目前每日产310万个鸡蛋);

2. 期望在未来4年内,从现有6.5%的市场份额,提高至10%。

如果根据蛋产(produce)排行(全马)来算,目前最高是Huat Lai - 日产3.9百万粒,
或14% of total;如果根据在大马的市场份额方面(market share)来算,
目前最高也是Huat lai - 9.02%,看来潮成管理层很有野心,不论是Produce还是
Market Share都想做鸡蛋业的龙头一哥
e)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2015

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Mar 2015
31 Mar 2014
31 Mar 2015
31 Mar 2014
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1Revenue
112,590
87,041
112,590
87,041
2Profit/(loss) before tax
23,844
13,553
23,844
13,553
3Profit/(loss) for the period
17,617
10,410
17,617
10,410
4Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
17,490
10,271
17,490
10,271
5Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6.53
5.14
6.53
5.14
6Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00


AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
0.5900
0.7900




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