2014年10月15日星期三

THE REVERSAL WILL BE BACK.


网友分享---THE REVERSAL WILL BE BACK.
Author: STOCKHACKER | Publish date: Mon, 13 Oct 18:09
What a day.
We share and discover.
But I am going to look very foolish if DJ is crashing down today. Any way it's just a sincere debate and hope it helps.
Anyone with the money in hand will not have any other real option other than to buy stocks in whatever quantity is needed to reverse the selling and blow out the slide and keep the head above the water.
So, what's contarian now? Expecting the crash or expecting reversal and another rally? Exactly what's the sentiment now is open to debate. Investors and analyst that expecting a stock market crash and those expecting a rebound as the consensus view.
Let's set aside our sentiment measures and technical analysis and focus on one major issue. Will US policy makers are letting the market crash now? Once again, there must be two sides of view.
• One side will believe markets still obey the basis rules of technical analysis. The central bank will intervene at the margins, maybe the interventions only works on low volume days. When the selling increases, it overwhelms the relatively modest size of central bank's intervention and the market crash.
• The other side will hold the believe that all the market are engineered, and intervention can reach essentially unlimited levels if The Power deems that is necessary. In the context the policy makers have conjured up to 16 trillion or even some sources says up to 20+ trillion to backdrop, global banks in the last Global financial meltdown.
As I always personally believe that the market is rigged. Major market central banks are politically involved as any other institutions in the world, although they cast themselves as independent institutions.
One can only imagine it would be a terrible shame if all the hard work of those in power for the last five years was destroyed by a needlessly destructive market crash. Imagine similar calls being make to the officials of their alliance, the Bank of Japan, and the European central banks.
We all know that they've been openly buying bonds and stocks, either directly or through proxies. What possible reasons would the central banks have to suddenly reverse their interventions and stand aside right when the global market is on a meltdown?
Thus, we can imagine that the much needed coordination of greater interventions on whatever scale is needed and deem necessary.
Indeed the reality is that the majors market policy makers knows that waiting around for the panic to deepen is not a winning strategy. That's the main point. The multi trillion of dollars is wasted and reduced to rubble totally, with nothing learned since 2008.
We can also ponder the consequences of the vast expansion of the intervention. Some observers think it bearish that no central bank has stepped up and announced a new easing program, I personally believe they will do so soon, whatever it takes. They're going to make it happen. No other option.
Put this situation on our shoes, isn't it is what you'll do, giving this very real risk of implosion? Anyone in their position with the tools at hand would not have any other real options rather than to buy stocks and assets in whatever quantity is necessary to reverse the slowdown.
If 1 trillion doesn't do the job, make it 3 trillion or 5 trillion. At this point it really doesn't really matter. Do you really think the $1 or few trillion would do those most poweful in charge pause?
Does it?
I don't think so. Because the market today is governed by their political cronies and proxies. And it is rigged. The thing is, their political public relations campaign is what matters most.
Till then.
P/s: if the most powerful market policy makers willing to reduce the 5 years of saving the global economy with trillion and trillion of dollars into rubble, the next plan will be hundreds of trillion.(not RM , it's USD!)
If you ask me when, I tell myself that now is the time to get things done, my way.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/STOCKHACKER/61657.jsp