2019年1月10日星期四

3204 GKENT 喬治肯特继续持有,未来丰衣足食。

~gkent 2018全年可派送5至5.5仙股息,现股价92仙计,周息率达到5.4至5.9%。
~公司于2018年10底现金有263m,
借债为63.9m。
~未入賬订单达马币55亿。
~公司从2018年6月开始股票買回至2019年1月14曰,股价介于RM0.755至1.48 ,共累积23123.800股。坐拥净现金马币2亿,未来穩定派息。
~公司股东同意可股票買回10%(56326,000股),现買回23123,800(约佔41%),未来还可買回33203.000股。
~(lrt3 )16.6 b/2=8.3 b 
profit margin 6%=498m for gkent。
498m/563.269m股数=rm0.88(eps),(以上为粗略计算,未扣除其他成本。)
~东海岸铁路复工为股价利好。
~合理价:RM1.36
~贴 
gkent is a good invest: 
market cap:568m 
net cash:200m 
stock price:RM1.01
net cash position:35%
Perhaps a more "investable" names on the net-net universe... Here's a screener by: 
1) KLSE stocks 
2) Market Cap above RM 100 mil 
3) Net Cash position is at 50% or more of its market cap value 

At least some of the names here are more familiar, hehe. I'm planning to study some of the names, having cash which is 50% of market can be considered first line to "value" in my opinion.
个人分享,投资自负。





乔治肯特迈向RM1.06/敏源

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中美贸易谈判虽然已告结束,但它持续牵制着马股的交投情绪。整体大势跌破1670点的支撑线。
富时隆综指于1月9日闭市时报1667.83报收,按日再跌4.93点或0.29%。
富时隆综指30只成分股,于1月9日持续进入技术回调走势,上升股项为678只,而下跌股项为258只。
乔治肯特(GKENT,3204,主板建筑股)于1月9日闭市时反弹,报95仙,按日涨5.5仙或6.15%。
乔治肯特的30分钟图表走势,交投走势突破它的顶头阻力线(B1:B2)。
它的30分钟平滑异同移动均线指标(MACD),交投走势处于一个上升走势中。
它处于“0”支撑线上波动,乔治肯特的后市交投走势,或会出现一段短线回试下限支持线的支撑(B1:B2)。
乔治肯特的日线图表走势于回试后,或会显现一段反弹走势,它或会挑战96仙至1.06令吉的阻力关口。

190110x1601_noresize

~


By NST Business - January 14, 2019 @ 4:46pm
KUALA LUMPUR: The potential revival of the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and affirmation of the Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP) projects could spark some optimism back into the construction sector.

Maybank IB Research construction analyst Adrian Wong said potentially lower margins and smaller orderbook replenishment for the second consecutive year will bring interest back onto the sector’s earnings delivery, especially from 2020.

“Sector valuation remains fair, balancing the risk-reward. The value of new job awards is expected to continue to moderate after the good years in 2016-2017 as a result of the reprioritisation of major infrastructure projects,” Wong said in a research note.

He said the 2019 Budget was spared from any announcement of new major infrastructure projects, making contractors’ orderbook replenishment opportunities will hinge on on-going projects.

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The projects include the Pan Borneo Sabah, Gemas-JB double tracking rail and Central Spine Road.

“Orderbook wildcard could come from the PTMP, Klang Valley Double Track (Phase 2), Johor-SG RTS Link and potential revival of the ECRL,” he added.

Wong said the implementation of selected high impact projects such as KVMRT 2, Klang Valley Light Railway Transit 3 (KVLRT3), Pan Borneo Highway, Central Spine Road, Gemas-JB double tracking rail and new highways such as DASH, SUKE and WCE will continue, as reiterated in next year’s budget.

“However, Klang Valley Mass Rapit Transit 2 (KVMRT 2) and Klang Valley Light Rail Transit 3 (KVLRT 3) have seen significant reductions to their total project values post their respective cost review initiatives,” he said.

Pakatan Harapan’s election manifesto also mooted the review of all highway concession agreements, taking over every toll concessions with the ultimate aim of abolishing highway tolls in stages.

However, Wong said this had been deferred until the country’s finances improve.

“As such, we think a scenario for expropriation is unlikely for now, but uncertainty remains on whether toll rates will be cut and if any form of compensation will be given,” he said, adding that a study on the highway concessions was underway with an earliest update expected by the first-half of the year.

Wong said the cancellation of major infra projects, replaced by the pool of new projects to be put up for tender, was expected to be significantly reduced.

“We expect the values of contracts to be awarded to also be smaller in comparison to those awarded in the recent years. This could be supported by awards from the Pan Borneo Sabah, Gemas-JB double tracking rail and Central Spine Road for their remaining packages,” he said.

With the contractors now vying for a smaller pool of contracts, he expects lower construction margins for their newly-secured projects as a result of stiffer competition.

“Profit margins up to six per cent are likely to be the new norm from up to 10 per cent, previously. We believe contractors with higher orderbook to cover ratios are likely to have more resilient margins over this period of fiscal consolidation.”
NST Business  -  2019年1月14日下午4:46
吉隆坡:东海岸铁路线(ECRL)的潜在复苏和对槟城交通总体规划(PTMP)项目的肯定可能会引发一些乐观情绪回到建筑行业。

Maybank IB Research建筑分析师Adrian Wong表示,利润率可能较低且订单增加较少,这将连续第二年带来利润,尤其是从2020年以来该部门的盈利交付。

“行业估值仍然公平,平衡风险回报。由于重大基础设施项目的重新优先考虑,新工作奖励的价值预计将在2016  -  2017年的好年后继续放缓,“Wong在研究报告中说。

他表示,2019年的预算案没有任何新的重大基础设施项目的宣布,承包商的订单补充机会将取决于正在进行的项目。

广告

这些项目包括Pan Borneo Sabah,Gemas-JB双轨铁路和Central Spine Road。

“订单簿通配符可以来自PTMP,巴生谷双轨(第2阶段),柔佛SG RTS Link以及ECRL的潜在复兴,”他补充说。

Wong表示,KVMRT 2,巴生谷轻轨3号(KVLRT3),Pan Borneo高速公路,Central Spine Road,Gemas-JB双轨铁路以及DASH,SUKE和WCE等新高速公路等特定高影响项目的实施将继续,正如明年的预算所重申的那样。

“然而,巴生谷Mass Rapit Transit 2(KVMRT 2)和巴生谷轻轨3(KVLRT 3)在各自的成本审查计划后,其项目总价值显着下降,”他说。

Pakatan Harapan的选举宣言还提出了对所有公路特许权协议的审查,接管了每项收费特许权,最终目的是分阶段取消高速公路收费。

但是,Wong表示,这一情况已推迟到该国财政状况改善之前。

“因此,我们认为目前不太可能采取征收方式,但是收费率是否会被削减以及是否会给予任何形式的补偿仍然存在不确定性,”他说,并补充说正在进行一项关于高速公路特许权的研究。这是上半年预计的最早更新。

Wong表示,取消主要的基础设施项目,取而代之的是将要投标的新项目池,预计将大幅减少。

“与近年来的合同相比,我们预计合同的价值也会更低。这可以得到Pan Borneo Sabah,Gemas-JB双轨道轨道和Central Spine Road的奖励,以支持其余的包裹,“他说。

由于承包商现在争夺较小的合同,他预计由于竞争更加激烈,新担保项目的建筑利润率将下降。

“之前,利润率高达6%可能是高达10%的新标准。我们认为,在财政整顿期间,订单覆盖率较高的承包商的利润率可能更高。“






国家基建公司被指拖欠8亿 分包商周转不灵濒临破產
(吉隆坡13日讯)负责轻快铁第3干线(LRT3)工程计划的国家基建公司(Prasarana),被指拖欠小型分包商高达8亿令吉的应付款项。
財经週刊《The Edge》引述消息来源指出,早前被指管理不当的国家基建公司,拖欠小型分包商高达8亿令吉的应付款项,导致后者因资金周转不灵正濒临破產。
报导说,国家基建公司至今仍然拖欠已於2018年9月30日完成的部分工程费用,这已引起许多承包商的不满情绪。

~

Local contractors should take the lead in ECRL 2.0





image: https://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2019/01/11/18/54/bizd_120119_psj_p9a_psj.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=4AC2B6231E4A6D6E9CEDAB788A3950B247ED1012
CCCC’s role: A view of the second Penang Bridge. If financing from China is reduced, then CCCC’s role in the ECRL can be cut down. It has happened before in the second Penang Bridge project.
CCCC’s role: A view of the second Penang Bridge. If financing from China is reduced, then CCCC’s role in the ECRL can be cut down. It has happened before in the second Penang Bridge project.
INCREASINGLY, it looks quite certain that the highly contentious East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project is set to resume.
The latest indication came from Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who said last week that the project may resume but on a smaller scale if the Chinese government agrees to the changes