2018年3月20日星期二

Masteel 5098 马钢 Rm 0.81 能投资吗?

公司基本面沒多大改变,最新季度净利变少,
另一受外在负面因素导致,卖方大量出货等,
股价由季报前二月底的Rm1.40,季报后跌至目前的Rm0.81,跌幅高达44%,大马長钢每噸仍咼于2000元,因此生产商仍有可观利润,公司己從塲上買回股票,价位介于95至98仙间,中長线投资者现買入,要赚个30%应不是问题。个人浅见,这行业股价显然是早前的太高估净利,之后未达標而引发卖压,早前的高峰股价也是提前反应了,而目前股价81仙是低价了,未来股价上回一元以上是可以的,只要公司2018年净利40至50m。
跌才有机会買低,不是吗?
--Masteel Rm0.81 趁低買入,小而美,红股后调整完,随着鋼价的上升,它拥4。3亿多价值庫存己增 
 值,短期目標价Rm1.05。 
--長钢四支都可进,个人觉得论公司股数,成交,股价,masteel更具赚副2017财政年为5.2%)
--原材料将维持现状,中国为最大钢铁生产与消费国,现有很大权力的定价权,未來1,2年钢价可企穩,国 内钢铁在反倾销税保护下,业者可保净利水平,公司存货与生产是並行的,之前的货现可卖到好价,masteel是被低估股票。合理价rm1.30
 --现在股价rm0.81只是在本益比(pe)6.2倍交易,取2018全年eps=13sen计算.
 --于31-12-2017公司CASH=5277万, 借款=3.54亿, NTA=RM2。05
--库存为4.3亿 /4.27亿股数=RM1.00(个人简单计算).
--4%赚副,(个人简单计算): 年营业约14亿 乘以4%=56m ,
  56M/427M 股数=RM0.13 ,PE=10,股价=RM1.,30
--受益于马来西亚政府施加13.42%螺纹钢一种保障税率和线材13.9%,螺纹钢的线圈。
个人功课,買卖自负。
Prospects :
 In 2018, the global demand of steel is expected to moderately increase over the levels of 2017. Steel prices are expected to remain at 2017 levels underscored by the increase of prices of many consumables that are used for steel making. The higher steel prices are also caused by supply side restrictions arising from capacity cut backs, environmental regulations and weather induced interruptions. Locally, the new steel supply due to the coming on stream of China owned Steel Mill in Kuantan, will gradually increase the supply of wire rods and steel bars in the local markets. The effects of the new supply on the Company's performance will largely be driven by the rate of commercialization of the steel output of the new entrant, percentage of its steel exported and the pace of roll out of the many infrastructure projects particularly in the public transport sector.








http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5098

http://www.masteel.com.my/

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5098.jsp
螺纹钢价格:
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html
--反向思维,也就是大戶都跑光了,只是零星的散户在止血了,当业绩不错时,
不是很好且无阻力的反升吗?钢铁为国内保护行业,基础建设,房子等必须品,有市场是不会被淘汰的.
自陳曉宇老师之分析:
a)早跑路了

b)大单在股价还没跌前就在卖出

c)钢铁的日子已经过去了

a)

Steel stocks poised for re-rating

TheStarWed, Mar 21, 2018 - 16 hours ago


Ready for shipping: A file picture showing steel coils produced at a steel mill in Indiana being prepared for shipping. Local steel stocks have fallen 18.3 after the US announced proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. — AFP
Ready for shipping: A file picture showing steel coils produced at a steel mill in Indiana being prepared for
shipping. Local steel stocks have fallen 18.3 after the US announced proposed tariffs on steel and
aluminium imports. — AFP

UOB Kay Hian says steel firms may report another set of strong Q1 earnings in May
PETALING JAYA: Share price weakness of steel stocks, partly due to an overreaction to the US import tariff on
Chinese products, should see a re-rating during a possibly strong first-quarter 2018 results season in May,
said UOB Kay Hian.
In a sector update report yesterday, the research house opined that steel companies may report another
strong set of earnings for the first quarter, with gross profit per tonne potentially expanding to RM733 per tonne.
This is based on UOB Kay Hian’s generic model and quarter-to-date steel price of RM2,717 per tonne.
“The sector’s current share price weakness, partly as a result of the US tariff on imported steel and aluminium,
may present a good buying opportunity.
“For steel stocks under our coverage, share prices weakened by an average of 18.3% from their recent highs
compared to Chinese steel companies, which saw an average decline of 17.1%,” said UOB Kay Hian.
It added that the outlook for steel remains promising, given the sustainably high local steel prices that are
supported by industry consolidation in China.
The research house expects local steel demand to gradually improve on the back of the commencement of
various mega and infrastructure projects.
“We also reiterate our view that the tariff imposed on imported steel and aluminium by the US should not
have a significant impact on local steel players, given that excess supply from US imports should easily
 be absorbed given the aggressive capacity cuts by China.
“In addition, logistically, it would be economically inefficient for US steel suppliers such as Canada, Brazil
 and Mexico to divert excess supply to Asia,” said UOB Kay Hian.
In February 2018, local steel bar and billet prices declined marginally by 2.7% and 2% to RM2,725 per tonne
and RM2,375 per tonne, respectively.
Despite the slight decline, the research house said that local steel prices are still on the high side and
 well-supported by rising steel consumption, as well as the safeguard duty on imported steel.
For companies under UOB Kay Hian’s coverage, Ann Joo Resources Bhd’s reported results that came in within its estimates, while Choo Bee Metal Industries Bhdreported stronger-than-expected earnings.
“Ann Joo, a long steel player, reported a 12.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth in core net profit in the
 fourth quarter of 2017, thanks to a higher average selling price of 3.2% q-o-q increase to RM2,494 per tonne,
 moderately higher sales volume and lower effective tax rate thanks to an income tax exemption order.
“For Choo Bee, earnings for the fourth quarter saw a 33.1% q-o-q improvement, largely supported by strong
growth from the manufacturing division as well as the trading division,” said UOB Kay Hian.
The research house added that Ann Joo was a prime beneficiary from rising price demand for long steel products,
 given its hybrid manufacturing facility, as well as effective capital management.
Meanwhile, Choo Bee maintained its net cash position in 2017 with the net cash level making up 19% of its market cap.
UOB Kay Hian has maintained its “buy” call on Ann Joo based on a nine times price-earnings (PE) multiple of the
 2019 earnings per share (EPS), and has reiterated its “buy” call on Choo Bee based on a PE multiple of seven times the 2019 EPS.
Ann Joo closed 2.1% lower at RM3.28, trading on a volume of 1.07 million shares, while Choo Bee closed 1.6% lower at RM2.50,
 with 97,300 shares changing hands.
b)

(IBanker) Masteel - A Rainbow After the Rain? (2)

Author:   |    Publish date: 



As we can see from the latest chart above, Masteel's share price has dropped to the level of RM0.835 at 12.30pm today. At this price, any technical analysis indicators would show sell signals to all the punters and short term traders. At current broad market sentiment, any fundamental analysis and facts would not be listened by most of the traders, or even investors - mainly driven by intense fear and anxiety. 

Straight to the point, to consider an action, (Buy, Sell or Hold) at this critical moment requires balls of steel. There are THREE key points should be known by the investors now, they would be:-

1. Massive Selling Could Be Over - Already Triggered All Technical Analysis Sell Signals
With massive selling pressure and all the negative TA indicators, traders and short term shareholders would have already sold their position in the stock. Who are the ones who own the Masteel's shares now? If they are share operators, long term and value investors, it would be a strong sign showing that the downside is limited now. 

2. No Change in Fundamental in This Panic Selling
The panic selling was triggered by intense margin calls followed by the chain-effect of panic selling. Prospect remains bright (please read the published articles and news to read more).

3. Buy Low or Chase High?
There's a golden opportunity in stock market, presently and historically, when the stock market sentiment was being affected negatively without significantly changing the fundamental of the economy and businesses. These include: War Threat from North Korea, BREXIT, Presidential Election in US and etc. All these are temporary. I repeat, all these are temporary.
Each of them provides a good buying opportunity for investors, however, most of them chose to chase the stocks when these stock prices had rebounded strongly. 


Last but not least, always remember, equity investors will always have to BUY BACK the shares in stock market after they have sold them earlier, especially when the broad market shows positive sentiment and when all the share prices start going up. The faster and the more it plunges, the faster and stronger it would rebound, given that fundamental and prospect remain positive. 

I added more Masteel shares today. You have to decide for yourself. Good luck! 

Note: Masteel has made annoucements on share buyback of 514,000 units of shares and 517,000 units of shares on 9 & 12 March. The buyback prices are in the range between RM0.95 to RM0.985.

c)


钢铁股稳健复苏

TheEdgeTue, Mar 06, 2018 - 2 weeks ago


(吉隆坡6日讯)钢铁与铝相关股项昨日大跌后,今早开始复苏。
投资者担忧美国可能对进口钢铝征收关税所带来的影响,拖累大多数钢铁与铝公司的股票昨
日全线下挫。
根据《The Edge》财经周刊报导,分析员视抛售压力为对全球负面情绪的一种反应,
并补充说股票很快会反弹。
大马投资银行研究今早在报告中指出,迄今为止,Trump政府面临着对这些拟议的钢铁
和铝关税的巨大反弹,现在断定这些协议为时尚早。
“因此,我们维持今年的钢铁与铝价格,分别为每吨2140令吉及2150令吉,
并给予建材领域‘增持’评级。”