2018年3月9日星期五

HENGYUAN 4324 恆源 RM 9.23 投资:

--恆源4324 近期低至RM8.24 ,只要过Rm10.00就算是20%的回升了,开始平穩的走势,
--估计2018财政年eps=RM2.40 ,PE=6 ,股价=RM14.40
(参考了历史):
2017财政年eps=rm3.03 ,pe=6,股价=rm18,最高去到rm19.20
--公司于31-12-2017现金有rm4.92亿 ,库存价值rm11.1亿,
借款为rm12.05亿
--公司从2004年至今未派送过红股,个人估计2018年有望发放.
--hy的 产量如下:
日产量达到12.5万桶
柴油= 43%
煤油(飞机油),液化石油气等= 19%
汽油(Mogas95)= 38%
--今年石油界兩大重头戏: 
1)沙地阿美上市。 
http://www2.hkej.com/instantnews/stock/article/1755712

2)中国推出人民币计算石油期货。 
http://pit.ifeng.com/a/20171116/53304888_0.shtml 

3)原油仍是最可靠,轻易取得的能源來源。 
http://www.fx678.com/C/20180310/201803101812002293.html
因此原油走势看漲,石油股恆源將重新大放光彩。
库存的价值会增值,油來高也可卖高,因为油是必须品,市塲信心情绪加强都会起作用的。
--在石油行业,炼油商的利润直接与原油价格和炼油产品价格之间的差值挂钩,这种价差被称为裂解价差。像大多数制造商一样,炼油商处于两个市场之中:需要买进原材料的市场和卖出成品的市场。由于炼厂的产量根据装置的配置、炼制的原油种类及其满足市场季节性产品需求而有所变化,因此有不同类型的裂解价差可以帮助炼油商对冲原油和炼油产品的不同比例,而炼油商必须评估自己的状况,制定与其具体现货市场运作相协调的裂解价差期货市场策略。
--Mogas 95的未来合约交易价格:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/singapore-mogas-95-unleaded-platts-swap-futures.html
--股票买进20个信号
文章来源:财富号,东方财富网旗下财经自媒体平台   【点击查看财富号原文】
股票买进信号:
  1、反弹线 在底价圈内,行情出现长长的下影线时,往往即为买进时机,出现买进信号之后,投资人即可买进,或为了安全起见,可等候行情反弹回升之后再买进,若无重大利空出现,行情必定反弹。
  2、二颗星 上涨行情中出现极线的情形即称为二颗星、三颗星,此时价格上涨若再配合成交量放大,即为可信度极高的买进时机,价格必再出现另一波涨升行情。
  3、舍子线 在大跌行情中,跳空出现十字线,这暗示着筑底已经完成,为反弹之征兆。
  4、跳空上扬 在上涨行情中,某日跳空拉出一条阳线后,即刻出现一条下降阴线,此为加速价格上涨的前兆,投资人无须惊慌做空,价格必将持续前一波涨势继续上升。
  5、最后包容线在连续的下跌行情中出现小阳线,隔日即刻出现包容的大阴线,此代表筑底完成,行情即将反弹。虽然图形看起来呈现弱势,但该杀出的额子均已出尽,行情必将反弹而上。
  6、下档五条阳线在底价圈内出现五条阳线,暗示逢低接手力道不弱,底部形成,将反弹。
  7、下降阴线在涨升的途中,出现三条连续下跌阴线,为逢低承接的大好时机。当第四天阳线超越前一天的开盘价时,表示买盘强于卖盘,应立刻买进以期价格扬升。
  8、反弹阳线确认行情已经跌得很深,某一天,行情出现阳线,即“反弹阳线”时,即为买进信号,若反阳线附带着长长的下影线,表示低档已有主力大量承接,行情将反弹而上。
  9、上档盘旋 行情随着强而有力的大阳线往上涨升,在高档将稍做整理,也就是等待大量换手,随着成交量的扩大,即可判断另一波涨势的出现。上档盘整期间约六日至十一日,若期间过长则表示上涨无力。
  10、阴线孕育阴线 在下跌行情中,出现大阴线的次日行情呈现一条完全包容在大阴线内的小阴线,显示卖盘出尽,有转盘的迹象,将反弹。
  11、并排阳线 持续涨势中,某日跳空出现阳线,隔日又出现一条与其几乎并排的阳线,如果隔日开高盘,则可期待大行情的出现。
  12、超越覆盖线 行情上涨途中若是出现覆盖线,表示已达天价区,此后若是出现创新天价的阳线,代表行情有转为买盘的迹象,行情回继续上涨。
  13、上涨插入线 在行情震荡走高之际,出现覆盖阴线的隔日,拉出一条下降阳线,这是短期的回档,行情上涨。
  14、三条大阴线 在下跌行情中出现三条连续大阴线,是行情陷入谷底的征兆,行情将转为卖盘,价格上扬。
  15、五条阴线后一条大阴线当阴阳交错拉出五条阴线后,出现一条长长的大阴线,可判断“已到底部”,如果隔日高开,即可视为反弹的开始。
  16、二条插入线 此图形暗示逢低接手力道强劲,行情因转盘而呈上升趋势。
  17、上升三法 行情上涨中,大阳线之后出现三根连续小阴线,这是蓄势待发的征兆,价格将进一步上升。
  18、连续下降三颗星确认价格已跌深,于低档盘整跳空出现连续三条小阴线(极线),这是探底的前兆,如果第四天出现十字线,第五天出现大阳线,则可确认底部已筑成,价格反转直上。
  19、三空阴线 当行情出现连续三条跳空下降阴线,则为强烈的买进信号,行情即将反弹。
  20、向上跳空阴线 虽不代表大行情出现,但约可持续七天左右的涨势,为买进时机。
注:股价的長期走势须配合基本面的支持,技术面作为補助,愿投资成功。
纯属分享,不建议買卖。
--31-3-2017 hengyuan30大股东:


http://hrc.com.my/

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/4324.jsp
1)网友donavan分享:
a)https://donovan-ang.blogspot.my/2018/03/hengyuan-volume-flow-and-money-flow.html?m=1
b)http://donovan-ang.blogspot.my/2018/03/hengyuan-update-6-march-2018-tuesday.html
2)网友davidtslim分享:

恒源第9(a)部分:2018年1月裂解价差数据

3)网友分享:
WHY CHINA FUND WILL BE VERY AGGRESSIVE COMING ??

1. THE CHINA FUND MANAGERS, JUST CAME BACK FROM LONG CHINESE NEW YEAR LEAVE, EAGER TO START WORK MAH...!!
2. THEY KNEW HENGYUAN Q4 RESULT VERY GOOD, THUS THEY HAVE TO BUY VERY BIG TO AVOID MISSING OUT LOH.
3. HENGYUAN BOSSES DID A GREAT JOB, HAS FUND THE REFINERY UPGRADES WITHOUT USING ITS EXISTING RM 1 BILLION CASH IN HAND, HIGH PROBABILITY OF GOOD DIVIDEND PAYOUT LOH...!!
4. HENGYUAN TRADE AT A LOW UNDEMANDING PE 4X COMPARE TO CHINA PETROLEUM PE 11.7X, PHILLIP 66 PE 22X, PETDAG PE 16X MEANS BIG UPGRADES IN HENGYUAN SHARE VALUATION COMING LOH....!!
5. THE SUPPLIES OF HENGYUAN SHARE HAS DWINDLE FOR PAST FEW DAYS, MEANS GOING FWD, THERE IS LACK OF SUPPLY, SO IN ORDER TO BUILD UP POSITION MUST AGGRESSIVE BUY B4 TOO LATE MAH...!!
6. HENGYUAN IS A WORLD CHAMPION STOCK WITH EPS RM 3.40 FAR EXCEED THE MOST EXPENSIVE STOCK IN KLSE NESTLE WITH EPS RM 2.75, MAKES A COMPELLING STORY TO AGGRESSIVELY BUY LOH...!!
7. HENGYUAN IS A ROLE MODEL COMPANY, FOR CHINA ONE BELT ONE ROAD STORY, IT HAS BEEN LOOKED UP HIGH UPON, WITH ADMIRATIONS BY CHINESE COMMUNIST LEADERS LOH...!!
09/03/2018 16:44
stockraider8 1. HIGH EPS EXCEEDING RM 3.40.
2. STRONG EPS GROWTH EXCEEDING 300% FOR 2017.
3. STRONG CASHFLOW EXCEEDING RM 3.70 PER SHARE.
4. MSCI SMALL CAP & BURSA MIDCAP INDEX COMPONENT STOCK.
5. STRONG BALANCE SHEET WITH CASH IN HAND RM 1.00 BILLION OR RM 3.30 PER SHARE LOH....!!
6. STRONG BANKS SUPPORT WITH LOAN APPROVAL REFINANCING EXCEEDING RM 1.70 BILLION.
7. POTENTIAL DIV COMING SINCE HAVE RM 1.0 BILLION CASH IN HAND AND CASH GENERATION EXCEEDING RM 3.70 PER SHARE.
8. STRONG SHARE ACCUMULATION BY CHINA FUND MANAGERS .
9. VERY VALUABLE REFINING CAPACITY OF 120K BPD WHEN COMPARE TO PETRONAS NEW REFINERY INVESTMENT COST OF RM 64 BILLION FOR 300K BPD AND PETRON NEW REFINERY CAPACITY INVESTMENT COST OF RM 6.4 BILLION FOR ADDITIONAL 60K BPD LOH.....!!
10. INVENTORY GAIN EXCEED RM 100 MILLION.
11. FOREX GAIN EXCEED RM 50 MILLION
12. HENGYUAN SHARE HAS ALMOST COMPLETED CONSOLIDATION AND RIPE FOR A VERY VERY STRONG REBOUND LOH....!!
13. HENGYUAN IS MSIA OPERATIONS WITH STRONG HONEST MSIA MANAGEMENT AND DIRECTORS MAJORITY LOH...!!
14. POTENTIAL IMPAIRMENT WRITE BACK AS THE REFINERY ASSETS ARE PUT BACK TO USE IN 2018 LOH....!!
15. HUGE ROE GAIN EXCEEDING 60% PA FOR HENGYUAN.
16. HENGYUAN IS IN THE HIGH VOLUME, PREDICTABLE & STABLE CONSUMER BUSINESS LOH....!! ITS BUSINESS VERY STABLE & PREDICTABLE LIKE NESTLE LOH...!! BUT NESTLE PE 40X BUT HENGYUAN LESS THAN 4X...MEANS VERY VERY BIG INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY, U SHOULD NEVER MISSED LOH...!!

RAIDER ESTIMATE TP RM 22.00 TO RM 42.00, JUST DUMB DUMB HOLD FOR THIS 2 MONTHS COMING MAH....!!

WHEN BLUECHIPS IS MAKING IS A REALITY, THEN PE 10X TO 15X...IS A REALITY LOH...!!

TAKE NOTE OF THIS IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHTS LOH...!!

"HENGYUAN IS IN THE HIGH VOLUME, PREDICTABLE & STABLE CONSUMER BUSINESS LOH....!! ITS BUSINESS VERY STABLE & PREDICTABLE LIKE NESTLE LOH...!! BUT NESTLE PE 40X BUT HENGYUAN LESS THAN 4X...MEANS VERY VERY BIG INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY, U SHOULD NEVER MISSED LOH...!!"