2017年3月23日星期四

5005 UNISEM 友力森 估计2017 年EPs=26sen,pe=15 ,stock price=rm 3.90

--友尼森主席兼董事经理谢圣德表示,苹果公司只是该公司的其中一个客户,儘管苹果公司的销售放缓,  但友尼森仍有其他手机客户,如三星、华为、联想和小米等。公司业务的多元化,包括涉及汽车业务、  电子消费业务.
--友力森受惠于强势美元,人民币走强以及多元化终端应用市场策略奏效,汽车市场已成为半导体领域主要  成长来源,更多晶片用于控制汽车灯光、通讯、安全、资讯娱乐等功能。同时油电混合以及电力车也推高  了半导体晶片需求。
--友立森表示,MEMS会是该公司未来的科技核心以及未来成长策略。友立森位于成都厂房,完成了占地1200平方尺,等级100的清洁室以支持MSMS发展。
友立森也引进了薄膜辅助模型技术以支持该公司在MEMS上的腔封装的发展。
“薄膜辅助模型技术有利于友立森在汽车和工业上的MEMS式的压力感应器,同时这项技术可以应用在感应压力、湿度、温度、气体侦测等消费品上。”
全球MEMS装备市场预料在2021年将成长至200亿美元(约800亿令吉),去年全球MEMS市场为119亿令吉(471亿9000万令吉)。
--友力森资产负债表健全,截至31-12-2016的现金达2.53亿令吉。借贷为5161万,净现金有2.02亿,累计净利达6.03亿 ,nta=1.92
该公司稳健的资本开销政策,使它有能力派发股息.
~良好的基本面与品牌.
~合理价:rm 3.90

~红色柱体:获利盘(即主力资金)越过75%,青色柱体:套牢盘(即散户);黄色柱体:游资,从图中我们可以看到红色柱体即主力庄家占优势,所以我们可以大胆的持股.
当红色盤少于55%时即可离場.
~美国费城半导体指数(Sox)继续上升. 
http://www.cnyes.com/usastock/Stocks/SOX.html
https://www.unisemgroup.com/
只供参考,进出自负.




2017年03月24日

美光財测优预期 股价大涨带动晶片股


(纽约24日讯)由于供应吃紧、智慧手机晶片需求上升,带动记忆晶片价格上扬,全美最大记忆晶片製造商美光预期本季营收將达52亿美元至56亿美元之间,高于分析师预测的47.7亿美元。不含特定项目的获利,在本季即公司会计年度第3季將达每股1.43美元至1.57美元,优于分析师预测的每股0.95美元。毛利率则介于44%至48%之间。美光股价盘后大涨9.8%。
记忆晶片市场目前受惠于主要製造商的供给缩减;儘管个人电脑与行动电话元件的需求並未大幅成长,但提升產能的支出有限,使供需继续维持平衡。来自新市场的需求,如汽车业,对记忆晶片的需求则正在上升,有助稳定。
美光表示,第2季动態隨机存取记忆体(DRAM)晶片的平均售价上升21%,前一季则成长5%。DRAM晶片占美光最新一季营收约64%。另外,隨著智慧手机储存量大幅提升,美光的NAND晶片需求也大幅成长。
美光財测公布后,威腾(Western Digital)盘后股价也一度上涨2.5%,至每股78.08美元。威腾去年收购晟碟(SanDisk),今年1月25公布的获利与营收均高于预期,財测也高于市场预估。


~相关领域的龙头净收己优秀,unisem下来也不差.


多谢下列大大的功课,感恩。


a)

Unisem - Higher Dividend

Author: sectoranalyst   |   Publish date: Fri, 24 Feb 2017, 05:34 PM 

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

  • FY16 earnings normalised earnings came in within our expectation
  • Demand from the automotive and industrial segments remain robust
  • Higher dividend declared in FY16, reflecting stronger cash position
  • Maintain BUY with revised target price of RM3.13 per share
EBITDA margin erosion. Unisem’s 4Q16 normalised earnings was down by -21.0%yoy to RM46.8m. The decline in earnings was mainly attributable to lower EBITDA margin. Nonetheless, 4Q16 revenue increased by +2.9%yoy to RM362.1m, supported by better demand from the automotive and industrial segments.
Within expectation. Inclusive of 4Q16 financial performance, Unisem’s FY16 normalised earnings came in lower (-9.6%yoy) at RM147.0m. This was mainly attributable to reduction in EBITDA margin and higher effective tax. All in, Unisem’s FY16 normalised earnings came in within our and consensus expectations, accounting for 97.8% and 99.5% of full year FY16 earnings respectively
Capital expenditure (capex) intensified in 4Q16. The group’s capital spending increased by +179.5%yoy to RM23.2m. This brings FY16 capex to RM129.5m. Nonetheless, this is slightly below (- 2.1%yoy) FY15 capex of RM132.3m.
Dividend. The group declared interim dividend of 4sen per share in 4Q16, in-line with 4Q15 quantum. Year-to-date, the group has announced dividend amounting to 11sen per share. This is higher than FY15 dividend of 10sen per share. We view that higher dividend declared in FY16 is reflective of the group’s stronger net cash reserve. Note that the group’s cash level increase significantly to RM253.8m as at 4Q16 from RM133.0m a year ago.
Impact on earnings. We fine-tuned our FY17 earnings estimate slightly higher by +1.9% as we are assuming higher contribution from the industrial segments.
Source: MIDF Research - 24 Feb 2017

b)

Unisem (M) - Market Conditions Improving

Author: sectoranalyst   |   Publish date: Fri, 24 Feb 2017, 04:50 PM

Review

  • Unisem reported a strong FY16 net profit of RM162.3mn (+32.9% QoQ, +8.0% YoY). Results exceeded ours and consensus expectations at 108.3% and 106.5%. A final interim dividend of 4.0sen (YTD: 11.0sen) was declared.
  • QoQ. Results exceeded our forecasts. USD revenue came in much stronger than anticipated, growing 5.0% QoQ (vs. flattish guidance). This was supported by a pick up in November and December 2016 for flip chip 2G PA modules. Margins were also supported by the weaker ringgit at RM4.32 (+6.7% QoQ) in 4Q2016.
  • YoY. Topline growth of 4.9% YoY was supported by a higher USD/MYR rate (+6.1% YoY). USD sales declined 1.4% YoY, with weakness stemming from the communications segment (-9.8% YoY). We understand that the inventory situation has recovered in the communication segment. EBITDA margins fell 0.7pp – due to shifts in product mix. There were higher contributions from wafer level packaging and bumping in the previous year.
  • Its net cash position improved to RM202.2mn. The group remains in a favourable position to support higher dividends. Our forecasted DPS of 12.0sen, translates into a favourable yield of 4.4%.

Impact

  • Imputing year end figures into our model, we tweak our FY17/FY18 figures by less than 1.0% to RM197.7mn/RM213.3mn.

Outlook

  • Management is forecasting USD sales growth of 3.0-5.0% YoY in 2017. While exact details are scarce, we understand there are plans in the pipeline to introduce new packages. Demand for wafer level chip scale packages and bumping activities are also increasing in China. QoQ, USD sales are expected to decline 5.0% QoQ amid seasonally weaker trends. We expect revenue will be stronger in the second half, driven by major smartphone launches.

Valuation

  • We raise our TP for Unisem to RM3.15/share (from RM2.85/share) – premised on a higher EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.0x and CY17 EBITDA. We raise our EV/EBITDA multiple on the back of improving underlying USD sales and continuance of the weak ringgit environment. Dividend yields are attractive at 4.4%. BUY
Source: TA Research - 24 Feb 2017
c)

Unisem (M) - Above Expectations

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Fri, 24 Feb 2017, 09:46 AM

FY16 CNP of RM160.5m came in above expectations thanks to higher-than-expected forex translation. However, total DPS of 11.0 sen was in line. Management is guiding for seasonally weaker top-line growth (in USD terms) but higher YoY growth. FY17 could be a better year given the potential volume ramp up for wlCSP amidst the launching of new flagship smartphones in 2H17, to be augmented by stronger USD. All in, our TP has been raised to RM2.80 (from RM2.52) following higher sales assumption as well as stronger USD/MYR assumption. Maintain MARKET PERFORM.
Above expectations. The group recorded 4Q16 core net profit (NP) of RM50.9m (+32% QoQ, -17% YoY), bringing FY16 CNP to RM160.5m (+3%) which made up 107%/105% of our/consensus’ full-year estimates. The positive deviation was due to the higher-than-expected forex translation. As expected, a final net DPS of 4.0 sen was declared under the quarter reviewed, bringing YTD net DPS to 11.0 sen (representing 50% pay-out).
YoY, FY16 revenue increased by 5% helped by favourable currency translations. Recall that FY16 USD/MYR exchange rate improved by 6% from avg. RM3.91/USD in FY15 to avg. RM4.14/USD. However, on a fairer comparison which is in USD terms, FY16 USD revenue, in fact, dropped marginally by 1% to USD319.0m (from USD323.4m) dragged mainly by the Communication segment. Note that in FY2016, Communication segment was particularly weak as its key customers were caught with high inventory level due to sluggish smartphone demand as well as overstocked issue. Back home with the MYR currency, while adjusted EBIT grew with a similar quantum of 5%, core NP recorded a narrower growth of 3% on higher effective tax rate of 12.7%.
Meanwhile on QoQ basis, 4Q16 revenue rebounded by 13% (or +6% in USD terms), a normalisation from a weaker 3Q16. However, the group’s adjusted EBIT soared by 41%, which we believed was mainly driven by the net impact of stronger USD (with almost 100% of USD revenue after netting of the 40% USD raw material cost). Recall that 4Q16’s USD/MYR exchange rate improved by 7% from avg. RM4.05/USD in 3Q16 to avg. RM4.32/USD in 4Q16.
Outlook. Management is guiding for a weaker growth at top-line (in USD terms) given the seasonality effect. However, YoY growth is expected to be higher as management sees higher bumping and wlCSP business demand from China for Chinese smartphones application. For FY17, management is targeting to hit a low to midsingle growth (in USD terms) which we believe is possible; to be supported by the potential volume ramp up for wlCSP amidst the launching of new flagship smartphones in 2H17, alongside the resolution of the inventory overstock issue. On top of that, we also reckon that the prevailing strong USD could also augment its net exporter’s earnings profile.
Maintain MARKET PERFORM. All in, our FY17E CNP has been raised by 11% to account for higher USD/MYR assumption of RM4.40/USD coupled with higher sales assumption from Communication segment and better operational efficiency. As a result, our TP is raised to RM2.80 (from RM2.52) with an unchanged PER of 12.0x (a valuation which is broadly in line with Malaysian OSAT players). Maintain MARKET PERFORM. Risks to our call include: (i) lower-than-expected sales and margins, and (ii) adverse currency exchange to the group.
Source: Kenanga Research - 24 Feb 2017
d)

Unisem - FY16 Results In Line

Author: HLInvest   |   Publish date: Fri, 24 Feb 2017, 09:26 AM

    Results

    • FY16 revenue of RM1.3bn was translated into a core net profit of RM148.0m. This is in line, accounting for 96-97% of HLIB and consensus FY estimates, respectively.

    Deviations

    • None.

    Dividends

    • Recommended a final tax-exempt dividend of 4.0 sen per share (4Q15: 4.0 sen) subject to shareholders’ approval.
    • FY16 dividend totaled 11 sen (FY15: 10 sen) per share.

    Highlights

    • QoQ: Sales grew 13% thanks to volume improvement coupled with stronger US$. In US$ term, it gained strongly by 6%, above previous guidance of flat sequential quarter. Core net profit expanded 39% with better economy of scale.
    • YoY: Top line was upped by 3% and 2% in US$ term. However, bottom line was weaker by 23% due to sales mix which skewed towards lower margin products.
    • FY16: Revenue growth of 5% was mainly attributable to USD strength where it actually fell by 1% in US$ term. However, bottom line was weaker by 7% due the same reason above.
    • Experienced strong demand in flip-chip while increasing demands for bump and wlCSP are coming from China.
    • Utilization rate improved qoq with wlCSP/bumping at high 80%, leadless at 65-70% and leaded at 60%.
    • Healthy balance sheet with a net cash position of RM202.2m (28 sen per share) as end of 4Q16. Prudent CAPEX policy allows room for dividend which is projected with a yield of 4.2% for FY17.
    • 1Q17 revenue is guided to range US$78-79m, implying a 3.4% yoy growth but to decline 6.2% qoq due to seasonality.
    • FY17 guidance: (1) Revenue growth of 3-5% in US$ term; (2) Higher effective tax rate of 13-14%; (3) CAPEX to be 35- 37% of EBITDA.

    Catalysts

    • Improved consumer confident and spending.
    • Technological advancement and creation of new electronics.

    Risks

    • FOREX, weak consumer demand, labour wage hike and continuous drag by Batam’s performance.

    Forecasts

    • Tweak our assumptions based on latest operating data and guidance. In turn, FY17-18 EPS forecasts are raised by 2.4% and 0.8%, respectively.

    Rating

    BUY , TP: RM3.00 
    • Besides being the major beneficiary of strong greenback, we like its (1) exposure to the automotive sector; (2) strategic presence in China’s booming tech market; (3) healthy balance sheet; and (4) rewarding dividend yield.

    Valuation

    • Upgrade to BUY from Trading Buy after raising our TP by 2.7% from RM2.92 to RM3.00, reflecting our earnings revision. Our fair value is pegged to 13x of FY17 EPS.
    Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 24 Feb 2017
    e)
    友力森末季业绩有望破全年纪录
    分析员正面看待友力森(UNISEM)即将出炉的2016年第四季业绩,预料有希望创下2016年业绩表现最佳季度。

    (吉隆坡14日讯)从最近市场数据显示,分析员正面看待友力森(UNISEM,5005,主板科技组)即将出炉的2016年第四季业绩,预料有希望创下2016年业绩表现最佳季度。

    丰隆研究在调整美元兑马币汇率假设后,相应将2016至2018年每股盈利预测,分别上调12.2%、11.8%及11.1%,并预测2016至2018年全年净利分别为1亿5500万、1亿6500万和1亿7900万令吉。

    丰隆预测,随着马币汇率走低,2016年第四季按季贬跌7.2%,按年则下贬1.4%至每美元兑4.34水平,预料刺激友力森第四季业绩表现,因大部份收入皆以美元计。

    丰隆指出,根据半导体工业协会(SIA)资料,纵然美元汇率走强,2016年第四季的全球半导体销售额达到930亿美元(按年增12.3%、按季增5.4%),推动全年销售额至3389亿美元的历史新高。区域市场方面,中国取得最高成长,按年达到9.2%。

    大马电子与电器出口在去年第四季成长7.5%,主要是受到马币汇率走贬所推动。同期的电子与电器产量按年成长稳定在7.0%(第三季为7.4%),因获得半导体及电子零件产量支撑。

    友力森的电子电器同业的业绩都有改善,主要汽车领域对电子电器材料的需求强劲。虽然今年1月为传统佳节,不过,今年1月杪生产仍然强稳,特别是来自中国的订单支持。

    汽车业领域为电子及电器产品的显著催化因素,特别是智能汽车装置电子器材,如汽车灯光、通讯、安全、资讯等。

    大马受冷落 YTL转战狮城


    同时省油环保及电子汽车等将进一步刺激电子及电器部件需求。

    友力森拥有技术优势,它的晶圆水平晶片尺寸包装获得市场欢迎,因它的微型状因素/微型化趋势,使这些较先进包装可获得较高的赚幅。

    净现金1.095亿

    友力森资产负债表健全,截至去年第三季的净现金达到1亿零950万令吉。该公司稳健的资本开销政策,使它有能力派发股息,预料2016年的周息率有望达4.3%。

    丰隆将友力森的评级从“守住”上调至“短线买进”,目标价也上调12.3%至2令吉92仙,或等于2017财政年预测本益比13倍。
    文章来源:
    星洲日报/财经 ‧ 报道:李文龙‧2017.02.14
    f)
    http://matureman2011.blogspot.my/2013/12/2.html

    g)
    http://www.insage.com.my/Upload/MediaNews/KAREX/KAREX-Nanyang-14112016.pdf
    特朗普新政策风险拖累亚币 令吉贬值利资源科技博彩 
    (吉隆坡14日讯)特朗普新政策不明朗风险导致新兴市场货币兑美元,包括令吉上周 五起狂泻,分析员指 出,美元虽增值市场谨慎,但对资源、科技和博彩领域有利,是 这一轮“灾难”中赢家。
    科技股业绩强劲 
    科技公司大部分的营业额以美元计算,而部分成本如劳工和电力成本则以令吉支付, 预计业绩将格外强劲。 虽然部分科技公司拥有美元贷款,而导致融资成本上扬,但不在我们的考量之内,因 为我们选的个别股都是净现金公司。 我们看好,益纳利美昌(INARI,0166,创业板)、友尼森(UNISEM,5005,主板科技 股)和伟特机构(VITROX,0097,主板科技股) 前两者营业额几乎以美元计算,伟特机构75%营业额则以美元计算。但三家公司的成本, 只有30%是以美元计算。