2016年9月2日星期五

转贴:Solar Industry Braces With Looming Glut Eroding Panel Prices (bloomberg)


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Author: moneySIFU   |   Publish date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016, 10:43 PM 

Solar manufacturers that are ramping up production now face a looming glut of panels, forcing companies to adjust or face dire consequences.
Trina Solar Ltd., Canadian Solar Inc. and JinkoSolar Holding Co. are among the suppliers boosting output at factories that will expand global capacity by 18 percent this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The manufacturers are locked in a race to build bigger and more advanced factories to crank out panels faster and cheaper. Just as they start rolling off the lines, demand is expected to slow, especially in China where the government rolled back subsidies last month. Prices are slumping, and suppliers expect margins to slip as well. It’s a pattern we’ve seen before, after a global oversupply five years ago drove dozens of companies out of business.
“Oversupply appears to be business as usual in the solar industry,” said Jenny Chase, New Energy Finance’s lead solar analyst.


The solar industry went through a similar boom-bust cycle after capacity grew faster than demand, triggering a two-year slump starting in late 2011. The result was a wave of consolidation as prices plunged and panelmakers’ losses piled up. Cheap panels also helped spur demand for more solar power, eventually prompting the survivors to expand production. 

More Capacity

“These companies are all fighting for market share and their tendency is to build more and more capacity,” Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc., said in an interview. “Ultimately that drives down prices and margins for everyone.”
Canadian Solar, the second-largest manufacturer, is building a a 350-megawatt facility in Brazil, and JinkoSolar is expanding output from a 450-megawatt factory that went into operation in Malaysia last year.
This comes as demand slows in China, the world’s largest market, where the government is reducing subsidies for solar farms commissioned after June 30. That fueled a rush of projects in the first half of the year as developers added as much as 22 gigawatts before the subsidy expired, said Hugh Bromley, a New Energy Finance analyst. With the lower subsidy in place, he expects about 6 to 8 gigawatts of new solar projects in the second half.


Trina, the world’s largest panel maker, said Tuesday that shipments will fall as much as 6.5 percent in the third quarter, to between 1.55 and 1.65 gigawatts. At the same time, the company has increased production capacity 7.1 percent after opening a 500-megawatt factory in Thailand in March. Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. said Tuesday that it expects shipments to slip as much as 54 percent in the current quarter, after 60 percent of its panels went to China in the second quarter.

Chinese Demand

“Chinese solar manufacturers now face tougher competition due to a supply capacity increase and a decrease in market demand,” Yingli Green Energy Vice President and Chief Climate Officer Jingfeng Xiong said during a call Tuesday with analysts.
To be clear, demand for solar is continuing to rise, but that growth is slowing. Global installations this year may reach about 67 gigawatts, up 27 percent from last year, according to New Energy Finance. In 2017, it’s expected to increase by 25 percent, and in 2018 it will rise 23 percent.
It’s hard to pinpoint whether supply has already eclipsed demand since companies won’t report whether their shipments have been impacted by the reduced subsidy in China until the fourth quarter. Evidence is mounting, however, that the glut has already arrived. Panel prices are at a record low of 44.7 cents a watt after plunging 10 percent in the past six weeks. Prices may fall another 15 percent by the end of the year, according to Patrick Jobin, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG.

Solar Consolidation

While the last supply glut ravaged the solar industry, it may have less impact this time because the supply chain is more consolidated. The market has fundamentally changed, with 90 percent of sales going to a handful of the biggest companies, compared with 66 percent four years ago, said Xiaoting Wang, a New Energy Finance analyst. Industry leaders like Trina and Canadian Solar have expanded beyond manufacturing, diversifying their revenue by developing solar farms.
While manufacturers may have known they were speeding toward a glut, it’s not easy to take their foot off the gas. Many production costs are fixed, so cutting output would drive down margins and erode their market share.

Collective ‘Suicide’

“They would essentially be giving up the race,” said Chase of New Energy Finance. “And nobody wants to do that –- even though collectively it’s suicide.”
Canadian Solar is one of the few companies that has announced it is scaling back its manufacturing expansion, adding 5.8 gigawatts of capacity this year instead of an initial target of 6.4 gigawatts.
“Canadian Solar’s objective this year is to play safe, not to grow our market share, but to improve our margin structure,” Canadian Solar Chief Executive Officer Shawn Qu said during an Aug. 18 conference call with analysts.
It’s unclear how long a supply glut may last. Wang, of New Energy Finance, said it may take two years to work through surplus capacity.
The key is how the companies react, whether they take a cautious approach or continue the race to build more factories, according to Merry Xu, chief financial officer at Trina.
“It just depends on the strategic approaches of our peers,” Xu said on a call with analysts Tuesday. “We do hope that this imbalance won’t last very long.”

2)太陽能減產 擴至50%

2016-09-02 01:54 經濟日報 記者簡永祥/台北報導

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太陽能需求急凍,報價慘跌,太陽能電池廠昱晶(3514)、新日光、茂迪、昇陽光電等,減產規模再擴大,減產幅度由原本的15%到30%,擴大至五成甚至更高,導致產能利用率大降,有業者產能利用率下探三成以下,本季傳統旺季效應失靈。
太陽能市況差,報價大跌,業者擴大減產幅度,本季業績不樂觀。圖為太陽能發電系統。 ...

太陽能市況差,報價大跌,業者擴大減產幅度,本季業績不樂觀。圖為太陽能發電系統。 本報系資料庫

據了解,各大電池廠8月開始,每周調整減產幅度,但礙於市場買氣持續低迷,報價跌速超乎預期,除了元晶等少數電池廠仍維持在七成產能利用率之外,新日光、昱晶、茂迪及昇陽光電 等,均擴大減產幅度。
業者透露,8月中旬過後,台灣太陽能電池廠產能利用率已普遍降到五成以下,有的甚至低於三成。
電池大廠坦承,太陽能電池報價跌速過快,為避免流血輸出,7月採取策略性接單,除非獲矽晶圓廠同意價格支援,勉強接單只會加速現金流出。
業者強調,大陸市場買盤急縮,買家把價格壓很低,是這波報價崩跌的導火線,原本各家承受價格基礎不同,但8月報價重挫16%,價格幾乎都已虧本,只好擴大減產幅度。
包括昱晶、茂迪、昇陽光電等一線電池大廠,產能利用率已急降至五成以下。新日光受到產能遷移,產能利用率更低;元晶因設備新穎,承受成本壓力較強,只要超過變動成本,儘管將產能填補,是少數產能利用率超過七成、尚未調整員工休假方式的太陽能電池廠,不過由於太陽能報價持續下滑,各家還能承受多久,仍得密切觀察。
業者形容,7、8月訂單急凍狀況相當罕見,在能見度不高、又不願流血接單下,只好減產因應,有的取消夜間作業,有的趁暑假鼓勵員工消化特休,相較今年農曆春節各家幾乎趕工交貨,只能感歎太陽能產業變化太快。
業者表示,這波太陽能減產,從下游模組廠、電池廠蔓延到上游太陽能矽晶圓、導電漿廠,儘管現階段訂單壓力沒電池廠大,但也被迫鼓勵員工休假,調配人力。
太陽能產業近況 圖/經濟日報提供

太陽能產業近況 圖/經濟日報提供

太陽能電池產能利用率光電

3)--http://en.solartech-energy.com/invest/report-mon.aspx
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4)昱晶 昇陽科 太極 東南廠保暖

2016-08-23 14:13 聯合晚報 記者鐘惠玲/台北報導

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太陽能台廠陸續在兩岸之外第三地建立產能,以免除美國反傾銷稅的限制,如今市況不佳,廠商紛紛減產,但包括昱晶(3514)的泰國廠、昇陽科(3561)的馬來西亞合資廠都仍維持滿載狀態,營運情況相對好,對母公司也提供支撐。
昇陽科本身的電池產能約達1GW(10億瓦),目前產能利用率約降至七成左右,至於其持股42%的馬來西亞合資廠,產能約300MW(百萬瓦),現階段仍維持滿載運行。
昇陽科馬來西亞合資廠出貨價格比其台製電池價格約高出兩成,該公司可依照持股比率,在每季季報中認列合資廠的42%獲利。
據了解,昇陽科原本規劃下半年要擴增馬來西亞合資廠產能,新增200MW,使得當地產能達500MW,但眼見市況反轉,計畫趕不上變化,所以該公司已經決定暫緩擴充大馬的生產線。
另昱晶電池總產能為1.8GW,其中350MW位於泰國廠,目前整體產能利用率在七成以上,單獨論泰國廠則是滿載。
泰國廠占昱晶總產能比重雖然僅在2成左右,但是該公司的小金雞,上半年貢獻母公司獲利約900萬美元,折合約新台幣2.82億元,以昱晶上半年稅後淨利6.15億元來說,貢獻獲利比重超過45%。
至於太極(4934)越南廠產能為400MW,貢獻獲利比重也超過產能占比,雖然產能利用率稍有降低,但仍比台灣廠區的情況好,並仍照預定計畫,將於年底前擴增至600MW,期望能在第4季產業景氣回溫時,供應市場需求。

5)first solar: 
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AFSLR&ei=CafDV8GTOITYugS9jqDoDQ 

sunpower 
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ASPWR&ei=EqfDV5CeENXmuAT40KbQBw 

solar city 
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:SCTY&ei=U6nDV_DFItKvuATwmovgBg 

canadian solar 
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:CSIQ&ei=U6nDV_DFItKvuATwmovgBg

6)http://www.pvmarketalliance.com/

7)http://pv.energytrend.com/price/20160821-10896.html

---tekseng德成半年净利己达31m为2015年全年多,2016年全年净利肯定超过2015年的二倍多,
股价一定爆发的,如2016年eps=15至17sen,pe=10,stock price=rm1.50-1.70
britishempire网友之分享:

If you know anything about solar markets tou would know that solar tech is a completely different market ! I have no idea why you compare these other companies they are in different countries and have none of the advantages that Tek Seng have ie currency week therefore cheap to buy from overseas , Green incentives from MIDA Malaysian government which allows for refund of expansion costs that they are just completing and then tax incentives on there sales if that is not enough then they have access to the purest silicone supplies in the world which are in Sarawak so are paid for in local currency ! NO IMPORT CURRENCY COSTS ! 

AGAIN LIKE I SAID DO YOUR RESEARCH AND LOOK AT FUNDERMENTALS INSTEAD OF COMPLAINING.
In response to the chinese article above addressing a slow down in Taiwan markets and Chinese market. 

It is obvious that you are not aware that these two countries and any Solar companies located in these countries are banned from selling into the North American countries and therefore rely on domestic and European markets only for which they have additional taxes in the European market as there is no free trade aggreement. Tek Seng has no such limitations and is free to trade with all countries including China and Taiwan. Again I do not know why you are comparing Tek Seng with Taiwan and China as they are not Equal !!!!!!!
In addition to the above it should be noted that as Great Britain made the wonderful decision to Brixet it will allow Tek Seng to sell to Britain with no European Taxes ! Another advantage for Tek Seng as Malaysia already has a trade agreement with Britain but was subject to tax tarrifs due to Britain being part of the useless EU ! 

I should know I am British and negotiate the trade agreements.