2018年1月9日星期二

大红花石油hibiscus 5199突破rm1後走向何方?

1)有时一心一意是更好的,跟着大势走,hibiscus有很好的成交量,基本面好,技术面也呈上升,
多家投行的推荐,政联机构如Epf持有2.21%股份,今年買她就夠了,个人觉得大宗商品像石油
是可收長期的,起码2年内会见到丰果。全球2016年原油交易达到6千多亿美元,是僅次于汔车
排第二的贸易,每天消耗9千多万桶,原油为战略品,2017年才从底部回升,
下來应有不错的走势。
合理价:Rm1.50
Rm1.03 
買入。
只供参考,買卖自负。
--PROPOSED PRIVATE PLACEMENT OF UP TO 144,384,429 NEW ORDINARY SHARES IN HIBISCUS PETROLEUM REPRESENTING
--The aforementioned issue price of RM0.92 per Placement Share represents a discount of approximately 3.1% from the five (5)-day VWAMP of Shares up to and including 8 January 2018, being the market day immediately prior to the price fixing date, of approximately RM0.9498 per Share.
This announcement is dated 9 January 2018



2)Hibiscus 5199 的FA与TA都美,
等丰衣足食吧。
今早交易中有兩次50万股的吃货,这定是大戶所为。敢敢放心買人。



3)Hibiscus 5199 为好股,2月底也是净利,5月会更好,北沙巴油田项目净利贡献了。
大红花石油董事经理肯尼恩佩雷拉点出,即便过去油价徘徊在每桶45至51美元,
大红花石油仍能从中赚钱,过去7个季度连续有利可图。
“最显著因素是,管控成本和维持生产量。
目前油价在每桶67美元且前景看好。
RM0.98
Rm1 買入最后机会。

转贴:
a)Becoming a major contender 
 Best proxy to rising oil prices
 Earnings to double in FY19 from full-year inclusion of North
Sabah EOR PSC and enhancement works at Anasuria Cluster
 Further upside from more enhancement works and
resurrection of Australian operations
 Initiate with BUY call and TP of RM1.48
Initiate coverage on Hibiscus Petroleum (Hibiscus) with BUY call. Our
TP of RM1.48 is derived using the DCF method which only accounts
for its active upstream production assets namely the Anasuria Cluster
and North Sabah EOR PSC but excludes Hibiscus’ Australian assets.
The collapse of oil prices in 2014 was a blessing in disguise for
Hibiscus as it managed to undertake opportunistic acquisitions of the
Anasuria Cluster in North Sea and the North Sabah enhanced oil
recovery (EOR) production sharing contract (PSC). The completion of
the acquisition of the Anasuria Cluster in Mar 2016 led to a
turnaround from an FY16 core net loss of RM145m to an FY17 core
net profit of RM29m. The impending completion of the acquisition of
North Sabah EOR PSC, slated for end-1QCY18, will more than double
its earnings in FY19. Recent enhancement works on Anasuria Cluster
and an ongoing oil price rebound provide further icing on the cake
that underpins our FD core EPS CAGR forecast of 102% over FY17-
20F. As a pure oil & gas exploration and production player, Hibiscus is
the best Malaysian proxy to rising oil prices.
.....
AllianceDBS initiated coverage report on hibiscus......
b)网友king musang之分析:
I posted this sometimes ago. Let's me share with you again: 

HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD 
Dec 27, 2017 07:24 PM | Report Abuse 

Hibiscus Valuation (Rough Estimation) 

Anasuria, Total 12,000bopd, net to Hibiscus 3,500bopd. Cost per bbl = $18. 
Anasuria Revenue = 3500 x 360 x (60-18) x 4 = RM211,680,000 

North Sabah, average 16,000bopd, PSC 25/75, 20% Loyalty, 80% Cost Recovery, 
North Sabah Revenue = 16500 x 360 x (60-12) x 4 x0.80x 0.25 = RM228,000,000 

Previously reported monthly Admin/Finance cost = 10,000,000, assuming 30% of this now capture as cost recovery under NS PSC, therefore Annual Cost= 120,000,000 x 0.70 = RM84,000,000 

Therefore PBT = 211 + 228 – 84 = RM355,000,000, Tax 25% > PAT = 266,000,000 

EPS = 266,000,000/1,500,000,000 = 17sen, PE 10 = 1.70 or PE 20 = 3.4 
International Oil companies: XOM, CHV, COP, average command PE 20. 

Public Investment also estimate 2018 EPS 18.7sen. 
http://ir.chartnexus.com/hibiscuspetroleum/download/pdf/media/analyst-... 

For me Fair value for Hibiscus should be 1.50 - 3.00.
c)网友dericlock之分析:
Interesting info from Hibiscus' slides: 
http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/6a7e03_69fc2f2f7725417881b13f652955164b.pdf
2,576bbl/day as on Q1 2018 (Jul-Sep 17) with 70% uptime. 

Item 1 in slides - offshore turnaround (from mid sep- mid oct) leads to lower uptime of platform but half of the down time already recorded in Q4 so expect Q1 about the same 

Item 2 in slides - Souring project decrease 171bbl/day 
Item 3 in slides - Gas lift installation increase 195bbl/day 

So to be conservative, use the same production value as in Q4. 
2,576+195-171=2600 bbl/day 

2600 bbl/day x 92 days = 239200 bbl 

Oil tanker usually unload on Nov 17, 
239200 bbl x 61 usd/bbl (a reserved value based on oil price on Nov 17) x 4.19 (USD to MYR) = 61,137,000 myr 

Q4 revenue only 57 mil, Q1 will be 61 mil. 
And this is just oil and not including other revenue (gas, consultation etc). 

Anyway it is just my rough calculation, all sifus may review and get a more details one
d)网友chang wt之分析:

HIBISCUS: Our predictions in our previous blogs on the rally today was RIGHT after all

Author:   |    Publish date: 

Today, Hibiscus staged a beautiful rally of +0.08 cents while its peers UMWOG and SAPNRG were all beaten down. Definitely the factor is not about crude oil, which at the moment of writing is nearing its last week's high.
Our previous posts that hinted on Hibiscus's possible rally has proven to be true. It happened today, so unexpectedly while its peers were beaten down badly.
Read:
HIBISCUS: 3 Reasons why it is a BUY now
HIBISCUS: Strong Technical Buy from Investing.com
HIBISCUS: Doesn't this news sound weird without Hibiscus being mentioned in it?
Chart wise, it has broken the resistance roof, and will definitely gap up and continue its journey north tomorrow. Especially after the latest TP upgrade by Alliance DBS of RM1.48.
The volume distribution chart below clearly shows big sharks have swam into Hibiscus at the top tier volume of >150k.
Our TP? Short term RM1.12. Possibly tomorrow in view of the bull market today where buyers may have just lost their minds in panic buying.