Homeriz 5160 家丽资 62仙投资

－Homeritz Corp Bhd是一家投资控股公司，设计，制造和销售室内装饰家具产品。 该公司提供的室内装饰家具产品包括皮革和织物沙发，餐椅和床架。 和Eritz品牌的生活用家具产品。 它还参与房地产投资活动； 以及家具和家具零件的设计，制造和销售。 该公司的主要收入来自亚太市场。

－HLG:

Maintain BUY, TP: RM0.72. After rolling over our valuation year to FY21 and adjusting for changes in earnings our TP falls from RM0.76 to RM0.72 pegged to an unchanged 10x PE multiple. We continue to like Homeritz due to healthy net cash per share per share of RM0.27

－产品热销 订单大增 家具业逆势疯赶工

http://www.enanyang.my/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB/%E3%80%90%E7%8B%AC%E5%AE%B6%E3%80%91%E4%BA%A7%E5%93%81%E7%83%AD%E9%94%80-%E8%AE%A2%E5%8D%95%E5%A4%A7%E5%A2%9E-%E5%AE%B6%E5%85%B7%E4%B8%9A%E9%80%86%E5%8A%BF%E7%96%AF%E8%B5%B6%E5%B7%A5

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Fundamental Analysis: Lii Hen vs Homeritz

In my previous post, I made some highlights on the Malaysian furniture industry. In this article, I would analyse the two furniture companies which I believe are well positioned to ride out this economic uncertainty. To be honest, there are many other companies to analyze within this industry and I may have only analyzed a small portion of it. Here are the list of companies that I have gone through:

• Homeritz
• Lii Hen
• Evergreen
• Heveaboard
• Jay Corp
• Poh Huat
• SWS

I am sure that there are some I have missed out on but among these, I believe Lii Hen and Homeritz are worth considering. The table below is a summary of what my analysis indicates.

Current price was on 24.4.2020

Analyzing the two companies was not simple, both companies had different attractive points. If you noticed, Lii Hen has many characteristics of a good company (good growth & strong cash position) but no investment should ever be bought based on good growth alone. The PRICE we pay for the investment is equally important and Lii Hen may be selling at a discount.

Next up, we have Homeritz. The company experienced practically zero growth (actual: 3%) but it has been enjoying remarkable profit margins. Among the analyzed companies, Homeritz has the highest profit margins and the only company with double digits (average profit margin = 16.7%). Moreover, the cash position in Homeritz was equal to RM 0.27 per share! If you would refer to the table below, you’d see that Homertiz has a cash position of 82 million while the company’s market capitalization is 142 million (the cash is more than half its value now!)

In all aspects except debt, Lii Hen shows promising figures. The revenue and profit has been growing at a CAGR of 14%. The cash position and working capital has been growing steadily as well. However, I do not believe that Lii Hen’s 14% growth rate is sustainable. Assuming that the 14% growth rate is maintained, Lii Hen’s revenue would double to RM 1.67 billion by 2024. The recent slowdown and pandemic would drastically reduce furniture sales. I believe the future growth may fall between 3% to 5%.

Homeritz has been stagnant with its growth but it does make predicting it’s future earnings relatively simple. Moreover, the significantly higher profit margins enjoyed by Homeritz would suggest its products are within the premium product range and enjoys an above average profit. Refer to the chart below for Lii Hen’s and Homeritz’s profit margins in comparison to industrial averages. As you can see, Homeritz’s profit margin is between 10% to 20% while Lii Hen’s is between 4% to 12%. However, the industrial average is only 2.4%.

Branding

When it comes to branding, I prefer Homeritz as the company markets its products under one brand name, Eritz. Although, the company is currently in the ODM business, I believe that the company can make the switch from ODM to OBM with its existing Eritz brand.

Homeritz’s brand

Lii Hen has yet to market its products under one brand name. As mentioned in my previous post. The move towards an OBM model would benefit the company in terms of higher profit margins and Homeritz’s significantly higher profit margins with its Eritz branding may be a key reason for its success.

Conclusion

As Lii Hen grows, the business would eventually require less capital expenditures and would translate to potentially higher dividend returns. However the lack of a branding is regrettable. Based on my estimates, the company is worth between RM 2.50 to RM 3.20. The current price may provide a 20% margin of safety.

Homeritz on the other hand has a cash position which is worth RM 0.27 while trading at RM 0.48. Moreover, assuming that the business remains constant without growth, the company is worth RM 0.65 to RM 0.77. The current price may provide a 25% margin of safety.

I already own shares of Homeritz and am looking towards puchasing Lii Hen. Therefore, my analysis would be biased.

基本面分析：Lii Hen vs Homeritz

在我以前的文章中，我对马来西亚家具业做了一些重点介绍。在本文中，我将分析两家相信可以很好地克服这种经济不确定性的家具公司。老实说，在这个行业中还有许多其他公司需要分析，而我可能只分析了其中的一小部分。以下是我经历过的公司列表：
荷马里兹
黎亨
常绿
橡胶板
杰伊公司
宝发
速帝世界总冠军大赛
我敢肯定我错过了一些，但是在这些之中，我相信Lii Hen和Homeritz值得考虑。下表是我的分析表明的摘要。

当前价格为24.4.2020
分析两家公司并非易事，两家公司具有不同的吸引力。如果您注意到，Lii Hen具有良好公司的许多特征（良好的增长和强大的现金状况），但仅凭良好的增长就不应购买任何投资。我们为投资支付的价格同样重要，Lii Hen可能会打折出售。
接下来，我们有荷马里兹。该公司的增长几乎为零（实际：3％），但利润率却很高。在所分析的公司中，荷马里兹的利润率最高，也是唯一一位两位数的公司（平均利润率= 16.7％）。此外，荷马兹的现金头寸等于每股0.27令吉！如果您参考下表，您会发现Homertiz的现金头寸为8200万，而公司的市值为1.42亿（现金现在是其市值的一半以上！）

除债务外，在所有方面，黎亨均显示出良好的前景。收入和利润一直以14％的复合年增长率增长。现金状况和营运资金也一直稳定增长。但是，我认为Lii Hen的14％的增长率是可持续的。假设维持14％的增长率，Lii Hen的收入到2024年将翻一番，达到16.7亿林吉特。近期的放缓和大流行将大大减少家具的销售。我相信未来的增长可能会落在3％至5％之间。
荷马里兹的增长一直停滞不前，但确实使预测其未来收益变得相对简单。而且，荷马利兹公司获得的利润率明显更高，这表明其产品属于优质产品范围，并且利润高于平均水平。请参阅以下图表，了解Lii Hen和Homeritz与行业平均水平相比的利润率。如您所见，荷马里兹的利润率在10％至20％之间，而莉恩（Lii Hen）的利润率在4％至12％之间。但是，行业平均水平仅为2.4％。

品牌推广
在品牌方面，我更喜欢Homeritz，因为该公司以一个品牌Eritz销售产品。尽管该公司目前从事ODM业务，但我相信该公司可以使用其现有的Eritz品牌从ODM转换为OBM。

荷马兹的品牌
Lii Hen尚未以一个品牌名称销售其产品。正如我以前的帖子中提到的。朝着OBM模式的转变将使公司从更高的利润率中受益，荷马兹的Eritz品牌带来的更高的利润率可能是其成功的关键原因。
结论
随着Lii Hen的发展，该业务最终将需要更少的资本支出，并可能转化为更高的股息回报。然而，缺乏品牌令人遗憾。根据我的估计，该公司的市值介于2.50令吉至3.20令吉之间。当前价格可能提供20％的安全裕度。
另一方面，荷马里兹的现金头寸价值为0.27令吉，而交易价为0.48令吉。此外，假设业务保持不变而不增长，公司的市值将介于0.65令吉至0.77令吉。当前价格可能提供25％的安全边际。
我已经拥有Homeritz的股份，并且正在寻求购买Lii Hen。因此，我的分析将有偏见

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--低估，庄拉低对付短期投机客，全年eps估计为9仙，取pe=9倍,股价为81仙，近5%的周息率，净现有8113万，profit margin :16%
Roe %:15

Nta:55 sen

--贸战开打·美订单转东盟·马家具业因祸得褔 - 星洲日報／投資致富‧企業故事 | I3investor
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sinchew_company_story/2019-09-18-story225416.jsp

--家丽资机构（HOMERIZ,5160,主板消费产品服务组）向来对美国市场较为陌生，惟该公司于今年为止签下了8个新的美国市场客户，使它有意在未来3至5年进行扩张计划，实质进展则胥视客户需求而定。


该行预期大马2019年的家具出口增长，将达6.1%至27亿美元（约113亿令吉），比2018年成长3.1%高。在越南市场方面，预料其2019年出口到美国家具产品将增长20%至120亿美元，延续2018年增长16%的增长动力。
--HOMERIZ (5160) : 冷眼从 FYE 31/8/2014 开始到 FYE 31/8/2019 都是它的三十大股东之一，最高排名第四名，最低排名也只是第十二名，最低拥股量为 1,700,000 @ 0.567% 和最高拥股量为 4,020,000 @ 2.010%。如果你认同冷眼的眼光，那就要多留意这股，看看是否可以收下。盈亏自负。
--家丽资机构丰隆认为家丽资机构（HOMERIZ,5160,主板消费产品服务组）是最稳定的家具股，前景转为正面，该公司将受惠于更多来自美国的订单（受中美贸易战影响）和美元走强。该公司也正积极扩充业务，包括购买更多机械以进一步加强自动化。

丰隆在该公司10月杪业绩出炉时已上调财测，目前保持财测不变。保持“买进”评级和目标价84仙。