乔治肯特 3204 Gkent Rm0.88投资

💪💪🌈gkent
基本面好，政商相通，高息股，净现1亿多，年尾工程净利进来，水表3亿订单，買在奔跑前，5月隆新高铁复谈。
乔治肯特的年报显示，截至2019年4月30日，陈溪福分别拥有该公司4.99%和39.15%的直接和间接股权。
💪💪20天圴价0.875己破，转为上升趋势.
个人观点，買卖自负。

乔治肯特（GKENT,3204,主板建筑组）的2020财政年首9个月净利表现落后市场预测，由于旗下建筑业务仅有约1年盈利透明度，该公司期盼旗下水表及铁路工程业务能扭转劣势，惟分析员暂时还是下调其财测。

手握3亿订单

丰隆研究指出，乔治肯特2020财政年首9个月净利3500万令吉（按年下跌44%），落后该行及市场预测，主要是工程及水表业务较低贡献，及轻快铁三线联营公司营收较低等所冲击，从而将其2020至2022财政年的净利预测，分别下调7.4%、1.4%及1.5%，反映较低工程入账及水表销售量。

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丰隆研究估计，目前乔治肯特手握建筑订单（不包括轻快铁三线合约）值约3亿令吉，或等于其2019财政年建筑营收的1.1倍水平。该公司表示将寻求区域铁道相关工程合约商机，潜在竞标合约值约10亿令吉，包括新加坡及泰国曼谷工程配套合约。

最近该公司获得雪兰莪水务局的合约，以供应、交付及安装5540个智能水表。丰隆研究指出，该公司放眼水表业务的盈利贡献，从目前占总额20%至2022年的50%，更长期则进一步增加至75%水平。

肯纳格研究指出，该公司2020财政年首9个月按年净利下跌46%至3340万令吉，逊于该行及市场预测，即分别占全年预测的56%及58%，使该行将其2020至2021财政年的净利预测下砍25%及36%及下调评级。

该行指出，政府重启轻快铁三线工程的进展缓慢，这项总值114亿令吉及乔治肯特持有50%利益的工程计划，料将负面影响该公司的业务表现。该公司与霍尼韦尔签署一项长期许可协约，将有助提升旗下水表业务。

作者 ： 李文龙
文章来源 ： 星洲日报 2019-12-20

转贴💪

GKENT - Gkent is of a more structurally risky nature, I doubt that not. With the change of government recently and the problems surrounding, I do worry about project cancellation and delays. However, I believe this will not be the case, as GKENT has been able to work with both the BN government and PH government in doing the massive 11 billion LRT3 project (43% completion and submission for claim expected in 2020). But looking at the scenarios available, and as this is my main margin play for the year of 2019, this is a work in progress that I am monitoring quarterly. There are cancellation penalties (if 43% completion as per progress, this must be paid out for works done and billed. hopefully quickly) I do not doubt GKENT will make a profit this year and many years after that, and I do not underestimate their revised partnership and technology transfer with Honeywell. However, this is a margin play, medium risk for high return play, and caution is to be advised. This is a very small part of my portfolio, but it is also one that I have bigger and bigger confidence in as quarterly results come up.

I am a net buyer. I have bought (on margin) an additional position of 1 million shares at 0.88 cents and continue to pile my dividends into buying back shares of GKENT. Interestingly enough, GKENT management also has the same opinion as I do. So far, they have spent RM25 million in buying back more than 6% of outstanding shares, given out 6% in dividends, and in every action they are doing they are telling me to KEEP CALM AND HOLD ON. The CEO of the company Mr Tan Kay Hock has also not sold a single share, and has actually increased his position, which gives me hope that the business will do well in the long term.

The best form of security is sometimes from the management and controlling shareholders. IF the CEO tells you that his entire networth is in the company, and if we win or lose toghether, ride the ups and downs together. 

That is good enough for me. At these prices, I am willing to wait

GKENT-Gkent具有更大的结构风险，我怀疑不是。随着最近政府的换届以及周围的问题，我确实担心项目的取消和延期。但是，我相信事实并非如此，因为GKENT能够与国阵政府和PH政府合作完成大型110亿LRT3项目（43％的竣工和预计于2020年提交索赔）。但是看一下可用的方案，这是我2019年的主要利润来源，因此我正在按季度监控这项工作。有取消处罚（如果按进度完成43％，则必须为已完成的工程和开具帐单的费用支付。希望很快）。我毫不怀疑GKENT会在今年及之后的许多年获利，我也不低估他们的利润。与霍尼韦尔（中国）的合作关系和技术转让进行了修订。但是，这是保证金游戏，具有高回报率的中等风险，因此请注意。这只是我投资组合中很小的一部分，但是随着季度业绩的到来，我也越来越有信心。

我是净买家。我以0.88美分的价格（保证金）购买了100万股的额外头寸，并继续将股息用于回购GKENT的股票。有趣的是，GKENT管理层也和我有相同的看法。到目前为止，他们已经花了2500万令吉回购超过6％的流通股，派发了6％的股息，而且他们在做的每件事都告诉我要保持冷静。该公司的首席执行官谭凯福先生也没有出售任何股份，实际上提高了他的地位，这使我希望该业务从长远来看会好起来的。

最好的担保形式有时来自管理层和控股股东。如果CEO告诉您他的整个净资产都在公司中，并且无论我们赢还是输，都可以共事。

对我来说足够了。以这些价格，我愿意等待

💪💪加倉87sen gkent

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