[转贴] 阿笔谈股系列5- 浅谈TekSeng- 阅读报纸的感想

Author: ahbi   |   Publish date: Fri, 19 Aug 2016, 01:16 PM 

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最近阿笔阅读星报，文章标题：TekSeng Counts On Solar Cell Business, 报导于18/7/2016 （星期一），文章有提到该公司太阳能的业务（solar cell）的订单可以忙到今年年尾，（TekSeng Holding Solar Cell business to generate about 70% of the company revenue this year given that the order book has been fill till the end of this year）。http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/18/tek-seng-counts-on-solar-cell-business/

“订单可以忙到今年年尾”，这句话引起了阿笔的注意。

TekSeng有两个主要业务：PVC业务和太阳能的业务（solar cell）。

从过去几年的年报，可以发现TekSeng的PVC业务缺乏成长空间，net income/year 保持在RM12-16M之间。反之，太阳能的业务（solar cell），从亏转盈，有成长的空间。

TekSeng的PVC业务价值多少？

TekSeng的PVC业务缺乏成长空间，net income/year 保持在RM12-16M之间, 所以P/E 5倍应该合理（RM60-80M）.

目前，TekSeng股价RM1.33, 市值RM442.32M, 又有TekSeng-WA股价RM1.08, 市值RM63.03M,所以TekSeng总市值RM442.32M+RM63.03M= RM505.35M。

如果你每股RM1.33 买入， 代表你认同太阳能的业务（solar cell）价值RM425-445M (RM505.35-60).

Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务（solar cell）的股份。

TekSeng的太阳能的业务（solar cell）价值多少？         

太阳能业务	收入	净盈利	净利率 (Net profit margin)	备注
季报(31/3/2016）	88.97M	20.32M	23%	Gain on foreign exchange (额外外汇收益)
季报(30/6/2016）	100.59M	13.27M	13%	没有额外外汇收益

未来会有更多生产线投入运做

-该公司管理层已说太阳能业务的订单可以忙到今年年尾和

-新增加的3条生产线会在九月全面运作，和

-2016年底，会再增加2条生产线

-从目前270MV生产力增加到 740MV（4条生产线增加到9条生产线）

所以阿笔大胆假设，原有的270MV生产线可以在2017年全面生产，所以价值RM260M[假设 P/E 10, 净盈利13.27Mx 4 quarter ,  Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务（solar cell）]

所以, 基本上你是投资RM185M(RM445-260),希望太阳业务有好的成长潜能（4条生产线增加到9条生产线）。可能价值RM530M[假设新增加的5条生产线在2017年全面生产， P/E 10, 净盈利26.54Mx 4 quarter ,  Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务（solar cell）]。阿笔觉得新增加的5条生产线在2017年全面生产可能性不高，但达到50%生产力，应该不难。

下一篇阿笔谈股系列将和大家讨论Penta。

注:：阿笔个人持有该公司股份，但并非该公司董事，顾问或员工。以上投资分析，纯属阿笔个人意见和观点。任何人因看此文章而造成任何投资损失，阿笔恕不负责。

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Monday, 18 July 2016

Tek Seng counts on solar cell business

BY DAVID TAN

 

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BUKIT MINYAK: Tek Seng Holdings Bhd’s solar cell business is to generate about 70% of the company’s revenue this year, given that the order book has been filled till the end of this year.

Group managing director Loh Kok Beng told StarBiz that Tek Seng was gradually increasing the solar cell production capacity to 10 million pieces per month from 5.6 million pieces currently, or about 250MW production capacity.

“We now have a total of seven lines, of which three will be fully operational in September. Two more production lines will be added by end of 2016, which will increase the total number of lines to nine by the end of this year.

“With nine lines in full operation, our capacity per annum from end 2016 onwards would be 740MW or about 156 million pieces of solar cells, which will have a market value of US$234mil, based on today’s market value of solar cell,” Loh said.

He added that given the market value of US$1.50 for a piece of solar cell, the total value of 10 million pieces per month would be about US$15mil.

“The price of solar cell has gone down to US$1.50 per piece from US$1.60 earlier this year due to the drop in silicon wafer price to 82 US cents, compared to 90 US cents earlier this year,” Loh said

He added that the company’s solar-cell orderbook had been filled to the end of the year.

According to the Colorado-based global research house IHS, the demand for solar modules would grow, stemming from the increased global solar installation demand, and this could reach 65.5GW this year.

The IHS report noted that module shipments would exceed 2015 numbers by 10%, with revenues hitting US$41.9bil.

According to SolarPower Europe, the new EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association), the cost of solar power installation has come down quicker than expected and the trend will continue.

“The lowest reported in-house module production cost (including depreciation) in China was 37 US cents per watt in the first quarter 2016,” the report said.

Canadian Solar, one of the three biggest solar companies in the world by revenue, targets module cost to be as low as 29 US cents per watt by the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the SolarPower Europe report.

The growth in solar power installation in Europe this year is expected to decline, according to SolarPower Europe, as contractors with solar power projects are waiting for prices of solar cells to come down further.

The global installation of solar power is expected to hit 97GW by 2020, up from about 50GW in 2015, according to the report.