Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 20 Jun 2016, 09:50 AM
2016年6月19日星期日
新兴发（7412，SHH）是一间木制家具制造的公司，简单来说就是家私业务，而餐室和卧室这两项是主打家私。它们的家私都是在本地马来西亚制造后再把家私出口至国外，大部分是出口至美国。新兴发在去年八月尾公布Q4’’2014令人惊喜的业绩后，短短3个月就从RM 1 冲到最高RM 2.48的价位，然后经过一波又一波的挫折后来到今天的RM 1.91这价位。
首先，还是一样老规矩先看公司的销售和净利，毕竟基本面是少不了这一项的。从上图看，销售目前是属于uptrend的；净利当然也同步一样uptrend了。然后，以目前最新累计3季的业绩也明显大胜前几年的记录，所以今年的业绩无可否认是新兴发这10年来历史新高了。
以目前累计最新4季的EPS，总共有29.48仙，然后以目前的股价RM 1.910，PE是在6.48（1.910 ÷ 0.2948）这个位置。如果以PE 8做标准的话，那么在目前累计4季EPS的情况下，它是值RM 2.36 （0.2948 x 8）。那么目前的价位，它是在19.07%的安全边际（Margin of Safety）。
接下来就看下新兴发的金库里藏了多少黄金，目前是累计了3千万左右的现金，它也占了目前市值的35%，所以现金这方面基本上是pass了吧XD 另外，上图也明显可见现金的存来都每年屡破新高，它这些年来的CAGR达到了41%！哎哟，这成长率JIN JIA不错哟！
接下来就逛逛下负债这一版块吧，新兴发这些年来的负债是downtrend的，可见管理层都很有效率地在还债款。目前累计7百万的负债是属于短期的，而长期负债在前两季已经完全请完了，也就是零数目。
看了现金和负债这两项后，综合目前3千万的现金和7百万的负债，那么新兴发是净现金 RM 26,926,000，或等于每股 RM 0.54。只要股东们手上握着100股，那么就是抓着新兴发手上2.7千万其中的RM 54了。呵呵，这只是比喻罢了，当然不是真真用RM 195就能赚到RM 54的现金 XD
接下来就看看美国的进口家私数据，看看就好，别太认真XD 上图显示美国的进口家私是一路往上的，而且这上势都好像没停过，除了2008至2009年的股灾年。一路向北的数据足以证明美国对家私的进口是有一定的需求量，多多少少都会对大马的家私出口业有点帮助。
除此之外，凯想注明一点，那就是新兴发的交易量是无比寻常的低，理由是公司的股份总额只有5千万股，30大股东就抓着了84%的股份，自然在市场流动的股份也少了。另外，新兴发过去两年分别派了2仙（2014）和10仙（2015）股息，而今年即将来临的股息预计会在8月尾和业绩同步公布。管理层“识DO”的话，相信今年的股息会有15仙，那么就有7.85%的DY了哦。
总结，凯认为新兴发是一匹黑马，它的潜力价值目前还在隐藏着，只要配合业绩的爆发，那么股价就能一飞冲天了。然后再加上红股+分拆，这就真的太完美了（发梦中，不要理我XD）当然黑马本身也有个弱点，一旦被发现马身其实是一只草泥马（凯是指动物XD），那么一切的美梦就成泡沫了，所以这就是骑黑马的风险。
最后再附上功课了：
本文只供参考。共勉之。
http://investmentkai.blogspot.my/2016/06/7412-shh.html
(转贴)SHH RESOURCES IS BETTER THAN LII HEN, AN UPSIDE OF 60%? REAL OR NOT VGI?? SCROLL DOWN FOR MORE!
Author: Valuegrowth1nvesting | Publish date: Fri, 17 Jun 2016, 09:40 PM
(VGI) No Brainer Investments Part 1 : SHH Resources Holdings Berhad
Many may not know this but Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathway actually has sizable investments in furniture companies which generate lucrative cash flow to fuel many of its other investments. This is because the low profile furniture business which is highly tied to the US economy does not receive as much publicity as the railroads, energy, insurance and consumer businesses that have over the years been headline favorites for media outlets.
If its good enough for Warren Buffett, it should be good enough for yousu! But which one should we choose among the many listed on Bursa?
My pick is SHH Resources, a very under the radar company with close to no coverage and attention given by the media and investors. Throughout my post, I will be comparing SHH to Liihen who engages in similar business. Liihen's share price has increased by 22% ytd while SHH has decreased 16% which is nonsensical! Let me explain why:
1) Earnings growth. The company saw its earnings grow more than 300% in 9M2016 and more than double in the latest quater. The good growth in earnings is due to a stronger USD (which remains above 4), higher orders from its US customer Ashley Furniture which is opening 100 new stores in 2016 alone and better profit margins from automation and better product mix. Meanwhile, Liihen's earnings at most only doubled from the year before.
2) Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) The company is trading at a very attractive P/E ratio of only 5.48x, based on a discount to Liihen at 8x, the company should be worth RM2.57, a 46% upside from its current price. This is more than justified as SHH has better earnings growth compared to Liihen.
3) Potential dividend per share of RM0.22 based on 70% payout ratio, lower than 2015's 75% payout implying a dividend yield of 13% Even after paying ot the dividend, the company will still be in healthy cash per share position of RM0.38. There is no reason for the company to not pay out dividends as their capex requirements is less than RM2m per year anyway and their cash flow is strong with free cash flow per share of RM0.24.
If we were to assume that 8% dividend yield is fair for the company, the company should appreciate to a price of RM2.81, an upside of 60%.
4) Realisable net asset value a 53% premium over book value Most are not aware that SHH owns a massive 16.6 hectare industrial land in Pagoh where it houses its operating facilities. What's interesting about these land are that they have not been revalued since 1994! Since then, major developments have taken place including Sime Darby's Bandar University Pagoh project with the building of 5 university campuses with GDV of RM8bil.
If I were to take the company private and break up the company and sell its parts, I would sell off all the land for RM81m which is roughly similar to the current market cap. Then, I would still pocket the company's net cash of RM29m (maybe RM20m net of all fees, of course I have not included the value of its machinery and buildings yet). A hefty profit for doing basically nothing!
Source : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ValueGrowthInvesting/97971.jsp
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SHH Resources vs Liihen
(VGI) 1) Earnings growth. The company saw its earnings grow more than 300% in 9M2016 and more than double in the latest quater. The good growth in earnings is due to a stronger USD (which remains above 4), higher orders from its US customer Ashley Furniture which is opening 100 new stores in 2016 alone and better profit margins from automation and better product mix. Meanwhile, Liihen's earnings at most only doubled from the year before.
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