余光成浅谈投资: 5218 SKPETRO 沙肯石油 RM1.61 BUY IN--

2016年5月5日星期四

5218 SKPETRO 沙肯石油 RM1.61 BUY IN--

epf 有15.09%,EPF bought 51,161,500 SKPetro shares on 28th April 2016.当天股价rm1.62-1.69 ,
因此此价位rm1.61进入是安全的,全球资金太多，往实体经济投入少，股票，房产己高，钱只能往原油，贵金属与原材料跑，这些为实物，有它的价值在，供求己不那么重要了。
转贴--

1)SapuraKencana Petroleum - Risk-reward opportunities improving

Date: 05/05/2016

Source	:	MAYBANK
Stock	:	SKPETRO	Price Target	:	2.00	\|	Price Call	:	BUY
			Last Price	:	1.61	\|	Upside/Downside	:	+0.39 (24.22%)

A good entry level, limited downside

The recent share price correction following Seadrill’s exit from SAKP is an opportunity to accumulate and trade on valuations (oversold, undervalued), beta and potential catalysts. Unlocking and monetising its gas reserve is high on SAKP’s agenda, a major catalyst not factored in by the market yet. Our unchanged SOP-based TP offers a 26% upside.

Seadrill’s exit addresses overhang concern

The sale of Seadrill’s remaining 490m shares of SAKP at MYR1.58/shr led to the exit of Seadrill as a passive shareholder. Seadrill still has a 50:50 JV with SAKP on the 6 PLSV units in Brazil. Seadrill’s shareholding exit from SAKP is not entirely unexpected, from an investment perspective. We estimate its average holding cost in SAKP (since its SapuraCrest days) to be MYR1.49/shr (post dividends). This block sale by Seadrill improves SAKP’s free float and liquidity, and it also addresses the share overhang concern that undermined SAKP in the past.

Catalysts: New gas finds & monetisation of gas assets

While SAKP’s energy division is expected to see red in FY17, we do not foresee much of an impairment risk. Its E&P production EBITDA breakeven is USD35/bbl. The unlocking of value of gas reserves from its SK408 field is high on its agenda, discounted by the market for now. Turning its 2C gas reserves (Field Development Program) to 2P status (Gas Sale Agreement) will lift the Group’s NPV. We do not discount additional new gas discoveries from its existing exploration activities at 5 wells at SK408 field that will lift its gas reserves level beyond its current 6tcf.

Opportune time to accumulate

We see values emerging from the recent fall in share price (19% YTD), attributed much to the recent Seadrill’s block sale. At current levels, the stock is oversold and attractively valued (26% upside to our TP). With its high beta, it offers a good trading proxy to the potential rebound in oil prices. Positive newsflows from its gas fields would be a strong catalyst.
Source: Maybank Research - 5 May 2016

2)Seadrill 沽沙肯8.2% 传国内基金大量吸购

财经新闻

财经

2016-04-30 12:54

（吉隆坡29日讯）沙肯石油（SKPETRO，5218，主板贸服股）遭大股东Seadrill脱售的8.2%股权，消息指大部分已被雇员公积金局、朝圣基金局和大东方控股等国内机构基金购入。

《星报》引述消息报道，Seadrill售出沙肯石油的4.9亿股或8.2%中，60%已被国内机构认购，其余40%则是落入包括对冲基金在内的外资手中。

“雇员公积金局、朝圣基金局及大东方控股是主要的国内买家，这显示出投资者在油市疲弱的环境中，依然对油气公司很有兴趣。”

公积金加码至18%

大马研究分析员在报告中指出，雇员公积金局上周五（22日）已购入沙肯石油的500万股或0.08%股权，把持股率推高至14.26%，如今再加上从Seadrill购得的股权，相信雇员公积金局的持股率将增加至18%。

“对于Seadrill把沙肯石油的股权，脱售给国内机构的消息，我们抱持‘正面’看法，因为这解决了早前悬而未决的担忧。”

而且，尽管Seadrill卖出这批股权来重组债务，但该公司与沙肯石油依然保持着强稳的商业关系。

此外，分析员也预期，沙肯石油股价在近期大跌后，已出现良好的上行空间，因此将评级调高至“买入”，目标价为2.28令吉。