a)奶制品原料下跌近50%.
b)铝材料价格也下滑,(有32.9%于kianjoo股份).
c)开扩更多的海外市场.
d)年底美国升息,美元上升.
e)11月底Q3业绩向好,累积净利三季己达6千多万,全年可破8千5百万.
F)企业消息如发红股,WARRANT或股票拆细以回報股东,加强股票流通量.
G)官司和平解决,CANONE为大胜家.
这些因素都是使CANONE继续向北,引起人们的购兴,目前仍以单位数的本益比交易.
2015全年估计eps=rm0.50 ,pe=12 ,stock price=rm6.00
19天呈上升走势,后面必有利好,进与守为良策,rm6.00在等着上演.
供参考,进出自负.
--网友卡卡西 于 2015-11-16 22:03 编辑
美丽的前景再看到.
Review of performance
The Group’s profit before taxation RM29.7 million （EPS: 14.77)
now we just focus on Food Products division
previous quarter Q2: Tis division alone contributed profit before taxation RM17.7 million (59.6% from group's profit, or EPS:8.8sen )
coming quarter Q3： EPS = ______ ?
can we just use simple calculation to predict the profit contributed from food division?
profit = RM17.7million ( assume similar sales and profit)
x (1/0.8) ( A. increase of shares in F&B from 80% to 100%)
x (1.15) ( B. increase in 15% capacity or maybe more than that )
x 1.125 ( C. strengthen of US$ )
x ( >1) ( D. weakening of raw material prices. Since incomplete data, assume price no change.)
= RM28.62 million
= EPS 14.21sen (8.8sen + 5.42sen)
Assume other division able to maintain their performance,
we predict the profit before taxation for the coming quarter would be:
EPS ~ 20.19sen (14.77 + 5.42)
Note:
C. strengthen of USD
Q2: april-june ( 1usd -->ringgit: 3.53-3.77) take median: rm3.65
Q3: july-sept ( 1usd --> ringgit: 3.76 -4.45) take median: rm4.105
strengthen of USD ratio:
= RM4.105 / RM3.65
= 1.1245
=1.125
--网友bukithot 于 2015-5-8 21:57 编辑
CANONE (1) - 收购 20% F&B Nutrition Sdn Bhd
CANONE自从上市以来都是以高负债经营。
拖了快一年，CANONE 终于宣布要开股东特大以新股份来买另外的20%。
这个收购可以为２０１４年的盈利增加11%, or 7.2mil。
但是2014年的EPS就会从RM 0.42 diluted to RM 0.37。
现有股数：152.4mil
新股 ：39.753mil @ RM 2.84
总共股数：192.153mil
新大股东股数% = 39.753 / 192.153 = 20.7%。
只凭20%的子公司的股份就可以换来20%的CANONE股份？合理没有？
这20% F&B 值112.9 mil。
计算方法：
原来是２０１３年的盈利乘于１５倍的本益比。
CANONE现在的本益比也才６－７倍。
对比其他公司： （其实CANONE 的 F&B 哪里能够跟品牌响亮的F&N, Nestle & Dutch Lady比？
所以他不能拿他们二十多倍的本益比。
如果F&B值１５倍的话，CANONE值多少钱？
2014年的净利是 70.999 mil.
Contribute from Kian Joo = 35.893 mil
Contribute from 80% F&B = 28.892 mil
Contribute from others = 6.214 mil
现在：
F&B值本益比１５倍。
Canone owns 32.9% of Kian Joo.
Today Kian Joo closing price is RM 3.07, so Kian Joo's market cap is 1,364 mil.
Canone's value:
From Kian Joo = 32.9% * 1,364 mil = 448.8 mil
From 100% F&B = 112.9 mil / 20% = 564.5 mil
From Others = 5 * 6.214 mil = 31.1 mil (assume PE=5 for others)
Total value = 448.8+564.5+31.1 = 1,044.4 mil
Total enlarged no shares = 192.153mil
Total value / share = RM 5.44 per share.
Current Canone price = RM 2.74.
2.74 / 5.44 = Discount 50%!
但是过去４年公司的股价都没超过 3.80，再加上官司案缠身，看来这个这折价会继续存在下去。。。
万一某年后Ｋｉａｎ Ｊｏｏ成功卖了，那ＣＡＮＯＮＥ的小股东就可以庆祝了～
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