浅谈認沽权证:06504y fbmklci-h4y


如何计算和操作FBMKLCI Put Warrant?

顺应网友的要求,今天特别写一篇简单的Put Warrant计算方法,以及要如何操作这些Put Warrant。

我们都比较了解和熟悉Call Warrant(认购凭单),但是对于Put Warrant(认沽凭单),很多人还是不太了解。

在大马交易所上市的Put Warrant并不多,那些股票代号后头有H的(如HB, HC,HD,HE,HF,HG。。)就是Put warrant。

Call Warrant是博取在股票或指数上涨时赚钱,而Put Warrant则是博取在股票或指数下跌时赚钱。

简单来说,买进Put Warrant的目的就是希望股票或指数跌得越多越好,越跌就越赚钱。

要操作FBMKLCI的Put Warrant,我们首先必须要了解该凭单的转换价(Exercise/Conversion Level)和转换比例(Exercise/Conversion Ratio)。


从BURSA网站,所得到FBMKLCI-HC的资料(Profile for Structured Warrants)如下:

Issuer:Macquarie Capital Securities
Exercise Level:1820
Exercise Ratio:200:1

因为这是Put Warrant,所以必须要等到指数跌到低于1820点时才可以转换。



结算方法 =(Exercise Level - Final Level)/ Ratio

根据昨天综合指数的收市行情(1716.58点)来算,那么FBMKLCI-HC应该值得(1820 - 1716)/ 200 = RM0.52

也就是说假如昨天是该凭单的截止日的话,那么Macquarie Capital 投行就要付你RM0.52。




那么以1600点来做结算,FBMKLCI-HC将有机会可以去到(1820-1600)/ 200 = RM1.10



我不太鼓励新手(或者不了解的投资者)操作Call Warrant和Put Warrant,首先你要对股价或指数的走势很有把握,还要拿捏得当,也要在跌时果断止损,而且还要承受得住压力。





Put Warrants - Knowledge And Tricks

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Nowadays, index warrants, either call warrants or put warrants, are getting popular in Malaysia market. FYI, put warrants are only available in Bursa Malaysia since August 2009. Meaning, during 2008 economy crisis, put warrants are not exist in our market. Most investors did not have the opportunity to capture it. However, don’t forget global market is a cycle. When the bear market comes again, it will be the best time for put warrants to fly. In other words, if you are an expert, you can earn money during bull market and also bear market.
What is put warrants? I believe most investors only know that when FBMKLCI index drop, put warrants price will go up and put warrants price are affected by the movement of index. However, it is wrong. To be correct, put warrants price are affected by FBMKLCI futures price, and not FMKLCI index.
The FBMKLCI futures are listed and traded on the Bursa Malaysia, the index warrants price is linked to the movements in the futures price over time and at expiry settlement will be based on the closing level of the relevant futures expiry. This is done because the issuer will use the futures contract to hedge the index warrants.
This is the reason why sometimes you will notice when FBMKLCI index drops, some put warrants will also drop.
Just to share a trick or maybe an earning opportunity about warrants. When the future contracts change, there will be difference between the contracts figure. Hence, the warrants price also will adjust accordingly. Investors can make use of this opportunity to grab a cheaper put or call warrants. However, we don’t have the data of the futures that the issuer hedge.
27th August Closing --> 1,601.70
28th August Opening --> 1,609.04
Difference --> 7.34 points
INDEX WARRANTS27th August – Closing28th August – OpeningDifference

1st September Closing --> 1,609.21
2nd September Opening --> 1,602.60
Difference --> 6.61 points
INDEX WARRANTS1st September – Closing2nd September – OpeningDifference
I believe during 27th August, the issuer had referred to a new futures contract and hence the price of put warrants is adjusted accordingly. The above comparison is just for illustration.
In terms of market makers, the role of issuers is to provide continuous buy and sell quotes in their warrants. In doing so, the market makers provide liquidity in the warrants so that investors can easily enter and exit their trades. The quality of the issuers is often a big factor for investors choosing a warrant.
Before choosing a put warrants, you need to be confident that the market maker will be there to provide consistent pricing throughout the life of the warrant so that you can enter/exit the trade in a fair and liquid market.
The trading system will enter bid and offer quotes in the index warrants based on the price in the futures. As the price in the futures move, the issuer’s quotes will also adjust. Some making systems will also change their bid and offer volume to follow the volume in the underlying share.
In Malaysia, there are a few exemptions to the continuous quoting requirements, these can be found in the issuers’ listing documents. The most common being, when the warrant value falls below the minimum bid of certain price, in this case the warrant is considered worthless and the issuers are no long required to provide a bid price.
List of issuers of index warrants
  1. Macquarie Capital Securities
  2. RHB Investment Bank
  3. Kenanga Investment Bank
  4. CIMB Bank
  5. Maybank Investment Bank
For me, I preferred put warrants which issued by Macquarie. It is safer as Macquarie provides high liquidity in warrants. At the end of each trading day, Macquarie will also capture the bid price of the warrant slightly before the close of trading and use this to represent the 'closing price'. I am not sure with other issuers.
Regarding how to pick a put warrants, besides than the common use of discount/premium, gearing ratio and expiry date, there are still few other factors to consider. I will talk about this later.
Just for sharing.

时,入PUT WARRANT,什么是认沽权证?我相信大多数投资者只知道当FBMKLCI指数下跌时,认沽权证价格会上涨,认沽权证价格受指数走势影响。但是,这是错误的。为了正确,认沽权证价格受FBMKLCI期货价格影响,而不受FMKLCI指数影响。这就是为什么有时你会注意到FBMKLCI指数下跌时,一些认沽权证也会下跌。



2018年你的股票组合中必须有的一支股:Gkent 3204 喬治肯特。

Gkent 3204 喬治肯特RM1.49 今年收住它就是了,gkent 持有53.8亿订单可穩住了,投资者将信心買入,丰衣足食啦!公司的最好净利季度在末季Q4.从Q4 2016与Q4 2017 即可看出,而Q1 2018按季度Q1 2017对比其净利是+16%的,乍看之下其赚副高达21.6%.並仍持53.8亿订单与净现金3.43亿。可提供穩定的派息。起码兩年内相对安全。 这支股長期是向上的,目前hlbg tp:RM1.52 ,rhb tp:RM1.66,kenanaga tp:RM2.20,加上公司股票回购会于9/7/2018股会之后展开,还有定季的股息派送,不用担心,買入与守住就是了。
On the MRT2 and LRT3 projects, Loke said they would proceed as planned, as they were ongoing projects implemented well in advance.

“The MRT2 is an ongoing project. We won’t touch it and the same goes for the LRT3. However, in terms of costing and so on, they may be reviewed by the Finance Ministry. It is up to them to decide,” he added.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/06/14/new-tender-for-rail-project/#23PcMKqxbU6G5pgS.99

Gkent 3204:
1)个人浅谈,当hlg ,rhb出货完后,就是kenanga 表演了,其目标价为RM2.20,只供参考,进出自负。
a)20/6/2018 公司终于开始買回股票了,今天買入400,000股,价格介于RM1.35至1.39。
b)21/6/2018 買入100,000股,价格介于RM1.31至1.32


乔治肯特 估值低可买入

NanyangThu, Jun 14, 2018 - 18 hours ago

Author: Publish date:


gkent 3204 喬治肯特 RM1.46 浅谈技术面与Q1 2018

GKMS Technical Analysis 
下道阻力于RM1.61 ,RM1.94
a)Q1 2018净利2153万,eps=3.8仙,估计2018全年的eps=18仙,pe=12倍,股价=RM2.16

公司的最好净利季度在末季Q4.从Q4 2016与Q4 2017 即可看出,而Q1 2018按季度Q1 2017对比其净利是+16%的,乍看之下其赚副高达21.6%.並仍持53.8亿订单与净现金3.43亿。可提供穩定的派息。起码兩年内相对安全。

Commentary on prospects:
The Group has achieved yet another record set of first-quarter results. Notably, profit after tax registered at RM21.54 million, up 16% from RM18.50 million in the previous corresponding period. Construction projects were executed well and on time. The Metering business contributed significantly having grown at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% over the last three years. George Kent has positioned itself to tap on growth opportunities in Smart Metering. The potential growth for the Group from Smart Metering is significant considering it being the first mover and a market leader in the Region
The Group’s balance sheet remained strong with a net cash position of RM343.52 million with a healthy order book. Its outstanding order book of RM5.38 billion will continue to provide earnings visibility in the medium term. The Group remains optimistic for the rest of the year. - 42 Going forward, with a strong balance sheet, the Group will increase its resources substantially, in terms of manpower and financial resources, to further accelerate growth in metering and other water-related businesses as well as concessions through M&As and strategic partnerships. This is in line with the Group's long-stated Strategic Plan to broaden its income base by substantially increasing the income from the Metering and other water-related businesses and investments.
本集团又取得了第一季度业绩纪录。 值得注意的是,税后利润登记在
2154万令吉,比前一个季度的1850万令吉上涨16%。 施工
项目执行得很好,准时。 计量业务在2004年增长显着
过去三年的复合年增长率(CAGR)为24%。 乔治肯特已经定位
本身可以利用智能电表的增长机会。 来自Smart的本集团潜在增长.



[转贴] [GEORGE KENT MALAYSIA BHD,营收下跌] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

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2)George Kent (M) Bhd - Broadly Within OUTPERFORM ↑ Price: RM1.5

Date: 13/06/2018

Source : KENANGA
Stock : GKENT     Price Target : 2.20     |     Price Call : BUY
    Last Price : 1.49     |     Upside/Downside :  +0.71 (47.65%)

1Q19 CNP of RM18.9m came in broadly within expectations at 13% each of our/consensus estimates. No dividends declared, as expected. No changes to FY19-20E earnings. Upgrade to OUTPERFORM from UNDERPERFORM with a lower SoP driven Target Price of RM2.20 (previously, RM3.65).
Results broadly within. 1Q19 CNP of RM18.9m (excluding forex gains of c.RM2.7m) came in at 13% of our and consensus estimates. However, we deem the results to be inline as first-half performances are generally weaker and we expect a strong performance in 2H19. No dividends declared, as expected.
Results highlight. 1Q19 CNP only dipped 4% YoY despite a steep drop in revenue (-23%) as the impact was well cushioned by higher contribution from associates/joint-ventures level, which increased substantially by 479% thanks to the contribution from LRT3. The drop in revenue was driven by both its construction and metering divisions which we believe could be due to the timing of the billings for its on-going projects and meter orders. QoQ, 1Q19 CNP fell 69% underpinned by lower revenue (- 42%) mainly dragged down by its construction division, which saw 48% decrease in revenue, as they booked in several project completions in 4Q18.
Outlook. To-date, the total construction cost for LRT3 has yet to be finalized by Prasarana. Based on available data and news flow which we compiled, the construction cost for LRT3 has well exceeded RM9.0b. We are expecting the total cost for LRT3 to hover closer to RM14.0-15.0b, and we believe that the government will continue with the construction works of LRT3, as most of the contracts have already been awarded to various contractors and construction works are already in progress. While we think that LRT3 is likely to proceed, we highlight that there would be significant risk to earnings and valuations on the contrary. (Refer overleaf for more details).
Earnings estimates unchanged. Post results, we made no changes to our FY19-20E earnings.
Upgrade to OUTPERFORM. We are upgrading GKENT from UNDERPERFORM to OUTPERFORM but with a lower SoP-driven Target Price of RM2.20 (previously, RM3.65). To recap, we had previously called an UNDERPERFORM on GKENT due to its rich valuation as it traded up to FY19E PER of 17.3x. However, we see value emerging in the stock arising from the recent sell-down due to the negative news flow in the construction as several mega infrastructure projects have been scraped since the change in government. Our current TP of RM2.20 is based on; (i) 10x FY19E PER for metering, (ii) 9x FY19 PER for construction (lowered from 17x PER, previously in anticipation of low contract flows going forward), (iii) NPV of 6% PDP fees based on RM9b cost, and (iv) 30% discount to 1Q19 net cash, implying FY19E PER of 8.8x.
Key downside risks to our call are: (i) lower-than-expected margins, (ii) delay in construction works, and (iii) scrapping of LRT3 project by the government.
Source: Kenanga Research - 13 Jun 2018


George Kent - It's Not All Gloom and Doom

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GKent's 1QFY19 core net profit of RM20m was deemed in line with both HLIB and consensus expectations as 2H is seasonally stronger. Core net profit declined 5% YoY mainly due to lower contribution from metering, partially offset by stronger share of JV profits attributable to LRT 3 PDP fees. The lower contribution from metering was mainly due to delays in Vietnam water meter tender which was originally expected in 1Q19. Prospect for GKent remains subdued post changes in federal government and scrapping of mega rail projects such as MRT3 and HSR in which the company is a strong contender. Nonetheless, earnings for the company over the next 3 years would be supported by the LRT3 PDP role. Raised FY20 earnings forecast by 2.1% post model adjustment. We introduce our FY21 earnings forecast of RM138.9m. We maintain our HOLD rating with higher TP of RM1.52 post earnings forecast adjustment.
Results deemed within estimates. 1QFY19 core net profit came in at RM20.3m, accounting for 14.9% of HLIB and 15.0% of consensus estimates. We deem the results inline as 2H is seasonally stronger. To illustrate, 1Q18 and 2H18 contributed 15.5% and 67.5% of FY18 core profit respectively.
QoQ: Core net profit declined 67.2% mainly due to decrease in Engineering segment revenue. This is not a concern given that 4Q is traditionally the strongest quarter for the year.
YoY: Core net profit decreased 4.9% mainly due to lower contribution from metering, partially offset by stronger share of JV profits attributable to LRT3 PDP fees. The lower contribution from metering was mainly due to delays in the Vietnam water meter tender which was originally expected in 1Q19.
Outlook. Prospects for GKent remains subdued post changes in the government after GE14 and scrapping of mega rail projects such as MRT3 and HSR in which the company is a strong contender. Moreover, the domestic construction industry landscape is expected to remain challenging and we do not expect a significant improvement in near term. Nonetheless, earnings for the company over the next 3 years would be supported by the LRT3 PDP role.
Forecast. Raised FY20 earnings forecast by 2.1% post model adjustment. We introduce our FY21 earnings forecast of RM138.9m.
Maintain HOLD, TP: RM1.52. Maintained HOLD with higher SOP-derived TP of RM1.52 (from RM1.50) post earnings forecast adjustment. Our SOP valuation for GKent is based on (i) NPV (WACC: 12%) for its engineering division with nil orderbook replenishment, (ii) 10x P/E for metering assuming no YoY growth and (iii) 20% discount to its net cash per share. Our valuation is based on bear case scenario for the company to reflect slowing mega rail job flows and earnings sustainability issue post completion of LRT3 which is expected in FY22.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 13 Jun 2018

George Kent Malaysia - Navigating In a New Landscape

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Maintain NEUTRAL, and a new MYR1.66 TP, from MYR3.82, with expected total return of 13%. 1QFY19 PATAMI met, at 19% of our full year forecast. The lower TP is from changes to our SOP valuation to reflect the construction industry's domestic operating landscape shift. This raises the question of earnings sustainability for the sector. We lower FY19F-20F earnings 1-4% on housekeeping. We see LRT3 PDP fee recognition (booked under a 50% JV) picking up. On the continuous effort to diversify earnings base, GKent is working to expand metering and water-related investments, organically (in the process of commercialising smart meters), and via M&As. Strong MYR5.3bn orderbook could keep its engineering segment busy for 3-5 years.
1QFY19 (Jan) revenue fell 23% YoY and 42% QoQ, as both engineering (-23% YoY and -48% QoQ to MYR73m) and metering (-22% YoY and -26% QoQ to MYR27m) segment chalked in lower revenue. The decline in engineering was from the completion of fewer projects in 2017, and 50% share contribution in Light Rail Transit 3 (LRT3) project delivery partner (PDP) role recognised under the JV line. PATAMI was +16% YoY to MYR21.5m, as the JV contributed PBT of MYR9.2m (1Q18: MYR1.7m, 4Q18: MYR7.9m). Yet, on sequential basis, it declined nearly 59%, primarily from lumpy recognition in 4Q18. No dividend was declared. Its balance sheet was healthy, with a net cash of MYR362m.
Adapting to the new environment. The engineering segment's activities for the next 3-5 years are anchored by its MYR5.3bn orderboook. The key question remains on earnings sustainability. The orderbook replenishment prospect could remain soft in view of the construction sector's current state, particularly rail-related projects. Balancing this is a continuous effort to further expand its metering business (working to commercialise smart metering products), organically and via M&A. Also, George Kent intends to grow recurring income in water-related investments. Pending more concrete development, we keep our growth forecast for this segment. We expect PATAMI to grow at an organic rate of 3-5%.
Maintain NEUTRAL. We revised our SOP valuation to arrive at a new MYR1.66 TP, with a 10x P/E for its metering segment FY19F PATAMI of MYR23m, switching from P/E to NPV at a discount rate of 13% for its engineering segment and adding the latest net cash of MYR362m. Our call is premised on the expectation that risk in the sector remains high in the nearterm. Our forecasts and valuation are built on the assumption that all existing engineering contracts and respective terms would remain unchanged.
Source: RHB Securities Research - 13 Jun 2018

12th June QR : GKent

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GKent : up up rebound ... reported profit up again ... EPS RM3.80

6)HSR project postponed, not scrapped, Dr M tells Japanese media (updated)

  • Tuesday, 12 Jun 2018

PETALING JAYA: Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad seemed to have walked back from an earlier decision when he told a Japanese publication that the high-speed rail project had been merely postponed, not cancelled.
Speaking to Nikkei Asian Review on the sidelines of the Future of Asia conference in Tokyo, he said Malaysia cannot afford the project at this moment but signalled that the door is still open.
“We cannot say we will never have high-speed rail (HSR) in Malaysia. What we can do is we can postpone the project because it is far too costly at this moment,” he said.
Dr Mahathir said Malaysia would need an HSR but it is something to only consider in the future.
After being sworn in as prime minister, he had announced on May 28 that Malaysia will be dropping the HSR project with Singapore, citing it as an “unnecessary project”.
However, in his interview with Nikkei Asian Review, Dr Mahathir commented that the Singapore HSR project is merely postponed.
“We actually postponed the implementation of that project.
“High-speed trains are most effective where the distance is very long. But where the distance is short, it doesn't contribute much.
“So we need to rethink high-speed rail,” he said.
Dr Mahathir also suggested the possibility of building an HSR “right through the Peninsula”.
“We cannot say we will never have high-speed rail in Malaysia – there will be a need for high-speed rail in the future,” he said.
Last month, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng also said the Government’s decision to scrap the HSR project was not only due to the high price tag of building it, but also steep cost burden to maintain the 350km link in the longer term.
This decision was also part of cost-cutting moves to slash the federal government debt of over RM1 trillion, Lim said.
He told the South China Morning Post that the new administration estimated the initial cost of the high-speed rail project was likely to be more than RM100bil.
Singapore’s Ministry of Transport said it had yet to receive an 
official notification that the 
project had been cancelled.


Gkent 3204喬治肯特 RM1.35 还能投资吗?

Gkent 3204技术面已转为向上,连续升三天了,股市是零和游戏,不须乱说,基本面相当好的票,股东回购公司股票10%己批准(约37344,000股),当股东与新投资者重新进入就是另一波的回档期,順势而行。rm2为中短期的目标。
5)rm1.28 大折扣。
5)早前投行像HLBG,RHB,KENANGA有推荐買入,目标价都过3元,你想还会继续下跌吗?主要项目LRT3 于2020年8月完工,净利保证还有2年,也就是2019.2020财政年净利仍然美丽,你想股价都会停留在2元内吗?


George Kent – Downgrade to HOLD 

We downgrade GKent from Buy to Hold following the cancellation of mega rail projects such as MRT3 and HSR which it was previously targeting for. While these contracts were never imputed directly into our forecast, we reckon these cancellations would make it hard to justify GKent’s pre-GE14 valuations. Earnings over the next 3 years (FY19-21) would be supported be the LRT3 PDP role. Nonetheless, earnings sustainability beyond this is in question. Our revised SOP valuation for GKent is based on a bear case scenario using (i) NPV (WACC: 12%) for its engineering division with nil orderbook replenishment, (ii) 10x P/E for metering assuming no YoY growth and (iii) 30% discount to its net cash per share. Under this bear case scenario, our SOP based TP is reduced from RM3.25 to RM1.50.

Ongoing projects likely to continue. We reckon that mega projects such as the MRT2 (RM32bn), LRT3 (RM12bn) will proceed as planned as work is already ongoing. Progress of MRT2 has hit 15-20% (Jan) and LRT3 at 10% (May).

~一群慌羊,用清醒的腦袋想想吧,当2019.2020财政年仍然有净利80 m至100m时,股数只有563.269m ,其eps将会是14.2至17.7仙,取pe=12信,股价为1.40至rm2.12 ,试想难到下來这二年股价只在1.50吗?啥哈,到时投行將调整目標价,相同的惰况也将发生在gamuda,mrcb,wct,ijm 


RM22b of compensation, penalty charges if ECRL cancelled

KUALA LUMPUR (June 6): If the government plans to terminate the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project, it will have to pay about RM22 billion in compensation and penalty charges, reported The Malaysian Insight.
According to the news portal, the compensation package includes payment to suppliers, dismantling costs, the loan principal, interest charges and committed orders for supplies and services.
If there are disputes over the compensation amount, it will probably be settled through arbitration, which could take several years, the portal added.
Additionally, the loan agreement with Exim Bank of China, which is providing 85% of the funding for the project, does not have a termination clause, and a contract termination would lead to a loan default that would need to be repaid within 30 business days.
Phase 1 of the RM66 billion rail link is now nearly 20% completed.