转贴:Public Investment Bank Bhd has initiated coverage on Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd with an “Outperform” rating at 47 sen and target price of RM1.06

https://www.docdroid.net/Y3AdbRC/hibiscus.pdf

个人观点： 
小股民只能:a)順势而行,b)风险控制,c)量力而为,d)長短皆可.共勉之
整个原油复苏趋势下,守住为金.
大红花开富貴來，大众与回敎投行做莊，有实力不用担心，買在起跑等丰收。
hibiscus 5199 rm0.64
http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/OIL.shtml

ykinvestor之分享： One probably has spotted that in the BIMB research note the foretasted EPS for 2019 and 2020 are 17 cents and 22 cents. So based on PE of 15, the TP should be RM2.55 and RM3.15 So if you are a longer term investors, at the current price is a rea bargain so hitting 0.80 and and rm1 short term looks realistic. 
All the Shell petrol stations in Malaysia have been sold to HENGYUAN. Thus the Sabah oil field should be sold as planned. You can determine youself whether this is a good buy or not. You can read the BIMB's forecast EPS again here. 
http://ir.chartnexus.com/hibiscuspetroleum/download/pdf/media/analyst-reports/BIMBSec%20-%20Hibiscus%20Petroleum%20-%2020170926%20-%20Company%20Update.pdf
Maintain BUY; TP raised to RM0.85

https://www.anasuria.co.uk/

转贴：Sensitivity Analysis for Oil Price Impact to Hibiscus

Author: Lau333   |    Publish date: Wed, 27 Sep 2017, 06:44 PM 

---

Any increase in oil price will go straight to the bottomline after deducting for tax and royalty.   Details on royalty/tax comparison on Anasuria/North Sabah can be found here. 

Every $1 up in oil price:

Anasuria -> $1.00 - 30% Tax rate = $0.60 to P&L

North Sabah -> ($1.00 - 10% Royalty) x 30/100 Profit Sharing x (1-38% tax rate) = $0.167 to P&L

Production runrate as follow:

Anasuria = 3.5kbpd

North Sabah = 8kbpd (assuming normal decay rate and no investment due to pending sales from North Borneo's sales factsheet of 9kbpd)

Hence, for every $5 increase in oil price, (Note that the Brent crude oil has increased from around $50 to $58 per barrel)

Anasuria = $5 per barrel x 3.5kbpd x 365 x $0.60 profit/bbl x 4.2 USD/MYR = RM16.1m

North Sabah = $5 per barrel x 8kbpd x 365 x $0.167 profit/bbl x 4.2 USD/MYR = RM10.2m

Therefore, total increase = RM28.3m

Being a small scale operator, Hibiscus is dependent on outside service provider (Petrofac, as in Anasuria), which is likely to increase service charges in tandem with oil price increase.  

Assuming net realisable per dollar of oil increase is 80%,

Net impact to P&L = 80% x RM28.3m = RM22.6m or 1.5 sen per share.

Conservatively assigning a PE 10, impact to Hibiscus's share price increase per US$5 dollar oil price increase = RM0.015 x 10 = RM0.15. 

Disclaimer: This is a simplified sensitivity analysis intended as a guidance for investor to value the share price of Hibiscus. For educational purpose only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hibiscus_part1/133706.jsp

 个人观点：

今天的hibiscus 和之前的早己不同，之前公司只是勘探油气，消耗太多资金，一年多前管理层改变方針，直接收购己生产油气资产，造就了公司连续六个季度取得凈利，基本面早已改善，现在有大众，回敎投行的推介，趁油气业前景转佳下，買入並守住是良策。Rm1.00 不是夢。

只是分享，投资请三思且自负。

A)

油价朝60美元 领域重拾动力 油气股增持良机

NanyangThu, Sep 28, 2017 - 18 hours ago

（吉隆坡27日讯）供需层面的种种利好，激励布兰特原油价格朝向每桶60美元大关，
分析员看好高油价鼓励油气业者恢复更多活动，建议趁此时增持油气股。随着布兰特
原油刷新自2015年7月的高点后，大众投行研究分析员今日在报告中点出，布兰特原油
今年至今的平均价为每桶52.40美元，该行依旧维持全年平均50美元的价位。

分析员认为，目前的高油价还不知道能不能持续，但相信业者一旦看到价格开始稳定，
会开始专注在恢复更多营运活动。

该行也点出六大表现超越大市的油气股，包括大红花石油（HIBISCS，5199，
主板工业产品股）、世霸动力（SERBADK，5279，主板贸服股）、戴乐集团（
DIALOG，7277，主板贸服股）、沙布拉能源（SENERGY，5218，主板贸服股）、
布米阿马达（ARMADA，5210，主板贸服股）和乌兹马（UZMA，7250，主板贸服股）。

该行点出，油市仍充满不少利好因素，比如说土耳其威胁切断伊拉克对外的输油管，
让后者断绝每日输送50万至60万桶的石油给其他国家，会对市场供需带来极大影响。

再者，先前美国炼油厂遭受飓风冲击，也让市场感到担忧，因此在近期推高油价。

“预计油价本周将会继续保持涨势，尽管石油输出国组织（OPEC）至今还没有决定延长
减产协议。最新的会议显示，OPEC成员馆很大可能会等到1月才会达成协议。”

OPEC、俄罗斯和其他几个产油国，自今年初以来已经每日减产180万桶，激励过去
3个月的油价提高15%。

首·选·油·气·股大红花石油

可买廉宜资产

目标价：1.06令吉

合理价值为每股58仙的Anasuria油田及沙巴北部生产共享合约（PSC）所带来的潜在增长，
点亮大红花石油的前景。较低的油价环境，有机会获得廉宜资产，该公司有能力从大公司购得高价值的资产。

B)

美油急升创五个月新高，为什么多头来势如此凶猛？

2017-09-28 17:53:36 飞鱼12604

汇通网讯——9月28日欧市盘中，美国原油期货由跌转升，短线拉升
0.80美元，涨势扩大至1%，创五个月新高52.82美元/桶。隔夜原油库存
意外下滑，加上近期利好不断，市场看涨情绪持续高涨。

周四(9月28日)欧市盘中，美国原油期货由跌转升，短线拉升0.80美元，
涨势扩大至1%，创五个月新高52.82美元/桶。隔夜原油库存意外下滑，
加上近期利好不断，市场看涨情绪持续高涨。



美国能源信息署(EIA)周三(9月27日)公布的数据显示，美国截至9月22日
当周EIA原油库存减少184.6万桶至4.71亿桶，减少0.4%，预期增加252.28万桶
。不过，汽油库存增加，美国原油产量上升。

该数据公布后，美国原油期货维持在高位震荡，日内突破前期震荡区间后，
受到技术性买盘提振，短线急速拉升。

油价在8月底9月初时，受到飓风影响拖累一度跌至45.58美元的低位，
而随着炼厂逐步恢复生产，油价很快摆脱了这一颓势，9月份以来涨势达到了11%。



需求和供应方面都迎来利好，这是导致油价节节攀升的主要因素。
IEA月报将2017年全球石油需求增幅预估上修10万桶/日，至160万桶/日，
该预估为2年来最高。

OPEC公布的8月月报显示，该组织8月原油产量下降7.9万桶/日，
至3275.5万桶/日。同时OPEC在明年减产协议到期后可能延长，
俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克和沙特能源部长法利赫在9月都显示了这一态度。

澳新银行在研究报告中称：“展望未来，油价将可能持续获得支撑，
供应中断加上全球需求稳固，将可能继续提振油价。”

尽管美国原油产量继续增加，但贝克休斯石油钻井数量持续下滑，
从月初的759口已经降至了744口，同时钻井的边际生产力正迅速下滑，
这预示着未来美国原油产量或放缓。

库尔德电视台Rudaw，伊拉克库尔德人在历史性公投中选择独立。
而在周一(9月25日)土耳其总统埃尔多安威胁称，将切断伊拉克北部原油
向外输送管道，给举行独立公投的库尔德自治地区施加压力。

技术面上，不论是日线图还是周线图，美国原油期货都突破了此前的
下行通道，增强了进一步上涨的动能，或向上测试53.76-55美元区间的阻力。

汇通财经易汇通行情软件显示，北京时间17:40，美国原油期货报52.71美元/桶。

C)

油市供需重新进入平衡，

大牛市或推升油价至80美元

2017-09-28 13:21:58 贝拉7067

汇通网讯——布伦特原油周一市价59.02美元/桶，达到2015年7月
以来的最高水平。大宗商品专家表示，石油的短缺可能将油价推至80美元/桶
。并指出基本面正在改变，市场正在重新平衡。不过就目前状况，
仍没有到宣布胜利的时候。

一位大宗商品分析师表示，近期油价可能会继续上涨。他认为，
目前原油市场供需状况正在重新趋于平衡。

技术性牛市的到来

标准普尔道琼斯指数大宗商品和房地产指数主管Jodie Gunzberg周三
对CNBC表示“基本面正在改变，市场正在重新平衡”。这支持来自几方面，
包括OPEC成员国正在遵守减产协议和中国需求的增长。她补充认为哈维飓风
确实使石油价格拉升，因此石油市场正在重新平衡。

这位分析师表示，指数数据来看，价格可能会涨到80到85美元/桶。
这是由于它们的结构性的现货溢价和市场的短缺所造成的，
现货溢价发生在期货合约到期的期货合约低于当前价格的情况下。


布伦特原油周一市价59.02美元/桶，达到2015年7月以来的最高水平。
冈兹伯格指出，布伦特原油已进入技术性牛市，价格自6月以来上涨了约30%，
美国西德州原油价格也上涨了23%。

言油市已脱困尚为时过早？

宣称石油市场供需已恢复平衡的言论，很可能会受到OPEC的欢迎。不过，
研究集团IHS的石油市场主任斯潘塞韦尔奇警告说现在宣布胜利还为时过早。

他通过电子邮件告诉CNBC，需求量最大的第三季度总是让石油市场看起来最健康
。第四季度和第一季度的需求下降仍然是一个风险，价格可能会再次疲软。
但不可否认，石油供应量的减少最终会产生一定的影响，石油市场目前的乐观
程度是近三年来最高的。

Gunzberg提到对页岩油产量可能上涨的担忧，因为现在页岩油价格走强，
这将增加供应，并再次拖累油价。

她解释道“我们已经看到一些结构性落后的地方存在短缺，一旦出现短缺，
就很难补充。我们能否足够快地加快速度，这是个大问题。也许没有那么快。”

油价在周三日内已有所回落，伦敦时间下午1点左右 布伦特原油价格下跌47美分，
至57.97美元/桶，而WTI原油价格下跌8美分，至51.80美元/桶。

D)

产油大国尼日利亚面临冲突，油市恐有新一轮动荡

2017-09-28 14:50:38 贝拉7286

汇通网讯——非洲最大的石油生产国尼日利亚目前即将面临冲突。
分析人士发出警告，尼日利亚南部产油三角洲地区的和平可能很快就会被破坏
。去年，武装分子通过对能源基础设施的精密攻击，使非洲石油国家的
石油产量锐减。随着尼日利亚总统大选的开始，新的激进组织威胁要重新发动
袭击。

非洲最大的石油生产国尼日利亚在过去一年中在动荡的南部三角洲地区相对平静。
分析人士警告说，武装分子可能很快就会对尼日利亚的石油工业造成严重破坏，
使非洲石油国家重新陷入困境。

2016年初，一个名为“尼日尔三角洲复仇者”的神秘组织发动了一系列大规模
袭击，使尼日利亚的石油产量大幅下降，加剧了油价引发的经济危机。

今年尼日利亚石油产量已经增加到180万桶/日，比预期的要快。
这让OPEC通过协调减产来消耗全球原油过剩的努力受挫，可能会阻碍油价的上升。

激进组织威胁将重新发动袭击

Verisk Maplecroft的高级分析师Malte Liewerscheidt本月在一份简报中指出
激进组织正失去耐心，政府无法兑现承诺，而代表武装分子谈判的组织出现瓦解
的迹象。这表明，在尼日利亚2019年选举后，尼日尔三角洲目前的表面平静期可能
很快就会结束。

尼日尔三角洲复仇者联盟发动的袭击使南方获得了更多的国家能源收入，
造成数十亿美元的收入损失，并使每天的石油产量减少数十万桶。
复仇者联盟似乎正在与尼日尔三角洲的一群领导人进行合作，
他们与联邦政府进行了谈判。但其他几个激进组织表示，他们已经对谈判失去
了耐心。

一个名为尼日尔三角洲革命十字军的组织在7月发誓要在9月底恢复袭击，
其他武装分子也发出了类似的威胁。同一天，泛尼日尔三角洲论坛表示，
如果政府在11月前不解决其16项要求，将退出谈判。

Teneo Intelligence的政治风险分析师Manji Cheto说，事态发展再次证实了
她的观点，和平协议只能是暂时的。有太多的激进组织存在利益冲突，
潘德夫的许多要求在短期内难以实现。

她在接受CNBC采访时表示希望尼日尔三角洲的和平能够持久。

据Cheto说，年底前恢复攻击的可能性只有30%。但是随着尼日利亚2019年
2月总统选举的开始，明年的恢复攻击的可能性将增加到60%左右。
主要原因是领导谈判的副总统耶米·奥辛巴乔正被边缘化。

石油生产或将被扰乱

风险咨询公司欧亚集团持较为乐观的观点。它相信布哈里总统领导的政府将
在竞选年努力维持和平。该公司指出，布哈里通过一项赦免计划增加了对
前武装分子的付款，并授予与军队有关的公司新的安全合同。

欧亚集团表示，新组织可能会发动攻击，希望获得类似的赔偿。
但目前还不确定他们是否能够实施类似于尼日尔三角洲复仇者组织和尼日尔
三角洲解放运动的行为。

欧亚集团的高级非洲问题分析家安库在本月的一份研究报告中写道虽然对
基本情况不了解，但这样的集团有可能为了获得资源而发动大规模攻击，
严重扰乱石油生产。但即使在这种情况下，美国政府也可能会迅速作出外交姿态，
减少对产量的进一步影响。

暴力事件的爆发将增加OPEC国家的风险，其中包括因委内瑞拉陷入困境的
国有石油巨头而到期的35亿美元债务，美国总统特朗普威胁要对伊朗能源业
实施制裁，以及中央政府与生产原油的库尔德地区之间的矛盾。

https://www.docdroid.net/Y3AdbRC/hibiscus.pdf

转贴Hibiscus Petroleum 5199 :Direct proxy to crude recovery --

MarketInsight  
Tuesday, 26 September, 2017 
www.bimbsec.com.my 
Company update 
Hibiscus Petroleum 
BUY◄► 
Price: RM0.63 
Target Price: (+35%) RM0.85 
Direct proxy to crude recovery 
 We continue to like Hibiscus as it provides direct exposure to the upstream business which is poise to benefit from the recovery in crude oil prices. 
 We remain excited with its earnings prospect over FY18-20F on the back of higher production from Anasuria and the potential structural growth arising from the new PSC role in North Sabah. 
 Maintain BUY call with a revised DCF-derived TP of RM0.85 (from: RM0.65, WACC: 9.0%). Our strong conviction on Hibiscus is also underpinned by its business model which is focused on acquiring quality producing assets from major oil companies.

个人观点：
公司己转为实际生产油气了，目前现金流不是问题了，勘探业务仍进行着，
一间于2017年6月止净利1亿，零借贷，现金5450万，现正以pe=9倍在交易，
在行业前景看好的情况下明显被低估了，油气股合理的pe=15倍，股价=rm1.05,

只是分享，投资请三思且自负。

a)

OPEC降库存目标或已达成，原油平静中谋划新征途

2017-09-25 15:36:33 米末16256

汇通网讯——9月25日，原油期货价格受美元走高打压，但守住了上一交易日的大部分涨幅，主要产油国称，市场稳定在再平衡道路上。科威特石油部长马尔祖克称，全球原油库存减至了五年平均水平，这是OPEC宣称的目标水位。

周一(9月25日)，原油期货价格受美元走高打压，但守住了上一交易日的大部分涨幅，因在维也纳开会的主要产油国称，市场稳定走在再平衡的道路上。

石油输出国组织(OPEC)、以及俄罗斯等非OPEC产油国自2017年初以来，已减产约180桶/日，帮助提振油价在过去三个月上涨15%左右。

科威特石油部长马尔祖克(Essam Al-Marzouq)主持了上周五(9月22日)的联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议，他称减产行动帮助将全球原油库存减至了五年平均水平，这是OPEC宣称的目标水位。

截至发稿，美国原油交投于50.57美元/桶，小幅下挫0.18%；布伦特原油换手于56.39美元/桶，微跌0.05%，但依然位于上个交易日创下的4月19日以来高点56.47美元/桶附近。


美元指数涨0.15%。德国大选结果显示，极右翼政党支持率大幅上升，使总理默克尔组建执政联盟的难度加大。欧元受此影响下滑。

俄罗斯能源部长称，预计1月之前不会决定是否延长限产协议至明年3月底之后，但其他部长认为今年年底前可能就会做出决定。

阿联酋能源部长周一称，该国对减产协议的遵守程度为100%。

三菱UFJ研究咨询公司驻东京的资深分析师Tomomichi Akuta表示：“相比其他市场而言，原油定价偏低，但任何大幅上升走势都将被页岩油的产量增长所削弱。”

美国原油料将再次测试每桶54.66美元阻力位，若升破该位则可能在三个月内涨至下道阻力位60.09美元。

该合约目前处在C浪，即始于2016年2月11日低位26.05美元的假定三浪周期中的第三浪。

这个周期目前为止受到2008年7月高位147.27美元至26.05美元跌势的几个回档位的有力控制。

23.6%的回档位54.66美元压制了A浪涨势，并引发一波修正，而这波修正或许已在43.75美元附近结束。

C浪来势汹汹，可能至多升至71.24美元。但在年底前达到这一目标似乎太不现实。更可能的目标或许在60.09美元，即61.8%预测水准。

目前为止还不清楚C浪这次能否轻松站上54.66美元。较为清楚的一点是，该阻力引发的修正或许要比上次浅得多，至多低见48.94美元。

仔细审视A浪结构后会发现，其由三个小浪构成。第三浪(c)浪最高处为(a)浪61.8%回档位。

这个比率或许适用于C浪与A浪之间的关系，暗示C浪或许会延伸至60.09美元。若跌破48.94美元，则可能跌至46.31美元。

根据波浪型态和费波纳奇比率分析，布伦特原油到年底可能升至每桶65.80美元。该合约目前处于C浪，这是2016年1月20日低点27.10美元开始的假定的三浪周期的第三浪。

这个周期受两组费波纳奇回档位控制。一组是2008年7月高点147.50美元至27.10美元的下行趋势的回档位，另一组是2012年3月高点128.40美元至27.10美元的较短下行趋势的回档位。

过去几周连续上涨后，布伦特油价最终攻克55.51美元这道障碍，即上述较长下行趋势的23.6%回档位。

这是油价第二次站上这道阻力位。理论上看，油价可能进一步涨至73.09美元，但是这个目标太过遥远，不太现实。以65.80美元作为初步目标更有意义。

对目前周期的波浪结构做详尽分析，显示出63.67美元的类似目标，即C浪的61.8%费波纳奇预测水准。该分析显示，A浪由三道小浪组成。第三浪(c)浪约是(a)浪长度的61.8%。

C浪和A浪之间也可能存在这种数学关系，意味着C浪长度大致是A浪的0.618倍，也就是达到63.67美元。

C浪也由数道小浪组成。根据(-a-)浪的构成，C浪在抵达63.67美元之前或许不会被深度修正打断。油价若跌破目前支撑位55.51美元，则暗示或将出现修正，跌向51.01美元。

汇通财经易汇通行情软件显示，北京时间14:58，美国原油报50.56美元/桶，布伦特原油报56.38美元/桶。

b)

库尔德公投或引爆全球油市，布油刷新逾两年来新高

2017-09-26 00:18:34 大维30826

汇通网讯——9月25日受人瞩目的伊拉克库尔德地区独立公正式举行。据外媒报道，此次独立公投的投票参与率已达到76%。鉴于伊拉克产油量位居OPEC第二大，此次公投结果或对全球石油产量造成较大的冲击。

周一(9月25日)，受人瞩目的伊拉克库尔德地区独立公正式举行。据外媒报道，此次独立公投的投票参与率已达到76%。鉴于伊拉克产油量位居OPEC第二大，此次公投结果或对全球石油产量造成较大的冲击。

此外，相应的地区局势紧张化，也可能波及到周边国家的石油产量。对此，油价反应激烈。截至目前，布伦特原油已刷新2015年7月以来新高至58.50美元/桶，现日内涨幅为2.42%。



据分析，倘若库尔德独立，OPEC减产努力或付之东流。因伊拉克和伊朗分别因为长年战乱和长期遭受国际制裁，丧失了大片国际原油市场份额，倘若伊拉克因为政治原因导致其石油资产缩水，为了维护OPEC老二地位，伊拉克必然会开足马力运行原油生产设施，而伊朗为提升其在OPEC的话语权也有可能不会放过这一千载难逢的机会。

另据媒体报道，伊库区独立公投，致周边邻国绷紧神经。除伊拉克中央政府强烈反对外，土耳其、伊朗和叙利亚三个周边邻国也对库区独立公投绷紧神经，密切关注公投结果及其可能带来的影响。

图：布油创2015年7月以来新高至58.50美元/桶


分析人士指出，一旦公投结果对独立亮绿灯，土耳其等邻国可能将采取经济和军事措施来应对。据报道，土耳其空袭了伊拉克北部的库尔德工人党。

土耳其总统埃尔多安威胁称，将伊拉克库尔德地区经过土耳其的石油出口渠道中断。而土耳其总理耶尔德勒姆则表示，不会承认伊拉克库尔德独立公投的结果，公投将进一步增添现有混乱局面。

此外，美国国务院曾表示，美国强烈反对伊拉克库尔德地区的独立公投。而伊朗总统鲁哈尼认为，伊拉克库尔德公投是非常危险的。法国总统马克龙则表示，伊拉克需要维持地区与政治稳定，库尔德地区独立公投或产生负面影响。

c)

OPEC或再放减产大招，多头乘胜追击美油涨近3%

2017-09-26 06:11:08 一清33911

汇通网讯——美国WTI 11月原油期货电子盘价格9月25日收盘大涨1.46美元，涨幅2.88%，报52.12美元/桶，创今年4月以来新高。周一油价大幅上涨，因原油需求增加，且预期OPEC产油国将延长减产协议。

美国WTI 11月原油期货电子盘价格周一(9月25日)收盘大涨1.46美元，涨幅2.88%，报52.12美元/桶，创今年4月以来新高。周一油价大幅上涨，因原油需求增加，且预期OPEC产油国将延长减产协议。

与此同时，ICE布伦特11月原油期货电子盘价格收盘大涨2.22美元，涨幅3.90%，报59.12美元/桶，布伦特油价触及2015年7月以来最高水平。

(上图为美国WTI 11月原油期货价格日内分时图，图上时间为美国东部时间；图片来源：汇通财经)

(上图为美国WTI 11月原油期货价格最近一年的日线蜡烛图，图上时间为美国东部时间；图片来源：汇通财经)

持仓数据显示机构看涨油价

从持仓数据看，市场认为美国原油依然存在上涨的空间。从上周五公布的CFTC持仓数据看，对冲基金将看涨美油的头寸增加至4周来的新高。

能源分析师Tamar Essner表示，投资者相信一旦油价超过50美元，石油企业将会蜂拥而至。而且投资者似乎更愿意押注美油价格上涨至接近布油价格，而不是布油回落来缩小与美油的价差。

美国页岩油生产商使用使用更为先进的钻探方法，产量恢复成为推迟市场再平衡的主要原因。 今年石油价格上涨刺激美国钻石企业增加产量，但有迹象表明美国经济复苏正在放缓。

近期在美国经营的石油钻井平台数量趋于平稳。上周五公布的数据显示，贝克休斯石油钻井数在六周内有五周录得下降。

美油产量恢复或施压油价

本月早些时候公布的美国石油生产数据显示，美国6月份的产量大幅下滑约910万桶/日。截至9月15日当周，产量大约950万桶/日，经过短暂的下降后，美国石油产量从飓风哈维的影响中恢复。

尽管两大合约均上涨，但美国产量增加的担忧仍压制美国原油价格，令其较布伦特原油贴水走阔。美国原油和布伦特原油价差走阔至约7美元，为2015年 8月以来最阔。
 
Tradition Energy市场研究董事Gene McGillian称，主要是受到减产开始产生效果、市场正在恢复平衡的看法推动。
  

库尔德公投或令供应减少支撑油价

土耳其称，将切断一条将石油从伊拉克北部运往全球市场的输油管，给库尔德自治区独立公投带来更大压力。
 
伊拉克政府不承认公投，呼吁外国停止从库尔德进口原油。
 
德国商业银行在一份报告中称，如果这一抵制呼吁获得成功，差不多每日市场供应量减少50万桶原油。

市场预期减产协议再度延长利好油价

石油输出国组织(OPEC)、俄罗斯和其它几个产油国自2017年初开始每日减产约180万桶原油，帮助油价在过去三个月上涨了约15%。
  
上周五在维也纳主持联合部长级监督委员会会议的科威特油长马尔祖克称，限产正帮助全球石油库存降至五年均值，也就是OPEC的目标水平。虽然在维也纳的会议上，产油国未能就再度延长减产达成一致，但部分市场分析人士认为，达成再度延长减产协议只是时间问题。

Lipow Oil Associates总裁Andy Lipow表示，市场预计OPEC与非OPEC产油国的减产协议会延长至2018年底。
d) 

布油多头觊觎60美元关口，但能否续命取决于两变数

2017-09-26 22:18:45 米末10095

汇通网讯——布伦特原油未来或冲击60美元/桶大关，不过油价长时间徘徊、甚至站稳上方的可能性甚小。OPEC各成员国继续遵守集体减产协议的定力难免会弱化。页岩油产业方兴未艾，油价高企可能促使生产商开足马力增产。

OPEC以及俄罗斯为代表的10几个非OPEC产油国集体减产力度可谓空前，在当前需求端的强劲增长势头令外界惊讶之际，中东地区油源的稳定性还因为库尔德独立公投面临新的变数。6月份以来，国际油价已大幅上扬逾20%，布伦特原油主力连续合约价格更是在本周刷新近2年高位，未来或冲击60美元/桶大关。

不过，60美元/桶关口很可能成为多头新的瓶颈，油价长时间徘徊、甚至站稳上方的可能性甚小。随着原油出口收入的不断增加，OPEC各成员国继续遵守集体减产协议的定力难免会弱化，而不少观察家还认为，减产协议有效期应进一步延长。此外，美国页岩油产业方兴未艾，原油价格快速高企可能促使生产商开足马力增产。

瑞银集团商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo称：“布油四季度有望站上60美元关口，但持续时间可能不长。这可能向美国页岩油厂商发出错误信号，诱导他们盲目增产。”

当然，在历经数年价格低迷之后，国际原油市场供求双方的心态也发生了明显转变。近期在新加坡举行的年度亚太石油会议上，与会者普遍认为，今年全球原油需求有望增加170万-180万桶/日，较今年年初时候预测值高出40万-50万桶/日。

挪威银行首席原油分析师Torbjorn Kjus在接受电话采访时称：“相比今年上半年出现的两波涨势，如今原油价格上行更多地是受到基本面改善的驱动，库存下降和炼厂利润提升意味着，需求已经明显较以往旺盛了。”

2018将会是充满挑战的一年

但是在 Gunvor Group Ltd.首席经济学家David Fyfe看来，原油市场可能在2018年年初面临新的挑战，供给端可能再度呈现井喷现象。

PVM Oil Associates Ltd.在接受采访时表示：“如果三季度末油价上破60美元/桶，那么四季度价格重心有望保持在该关口上方，不过2017年过后油价如何运行，很大程度上还得看OPEC政策。”

尽管俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克在上周结束的维也纳会议上强调，各方需要开始制定退出减产协议的策略，但是包括英国BP公司在内的一些业界巨头还是认为，OPEC及非OPEC产油国有必要第二次延长减产协议有效期。

Petromatrix GmbH常务董事Olivier Jakob在邮件中写道，油价站上60美元/桶后将会给市场带来新的挑战，那就是产油国是否还有足够的意愿完全遵守减产协议，这一点不少市场参与者是不乐观的。

页岩油威胁定将重现

美国页岩油产业显然是阻碍油价持续走高的最大威胁，生产运行成本测算表明，国际油价站上60美元/桶后，他们就将进入较为舒适的边际利润区间。

AlphaValue SAS分析师Alexandre Andlauer预期：“未来4个月内，美国页岩油可能增产40万桶/日，不仅先前停产的裂解装置会复产，那些前期为完工的新采掘设备也会陆续投产。”

即便是最为乐观的市场参与者，他们也认为，油价在未来1年时间里很难突破65美元/桶。全球顶尖交易商Vitol Group执行官Chris Bake坦言：“油价突破60美元/桶，美国页岩油厂商增产就不会有大的顾忌了。”

5199 HIBISCUS 大紅花石油 Rm 0.615 是否物美价廉?

5199 HIBISCUS 大紅花石油己生产石油了(Anasuria油田，20年的开采期) ，
己6个季度取得净利，布籣特原油价56 usd 绝对是利好.tp=1元，公司于30-6-2017现金有5450万.
公司目前零债务和刚转亏为盈的优势，为日后的发展机会融资。
“融资部分将用于寻找可提高产量的实惠方案，及于2018与2019年发展Anasuria油田,

原油价格每桶高于40美元，我们的运作仍处舒适阶段。因此现56美元公司维持净利向好. 在基本面转强与板塊转向油气股下将展现大红大紫的光采。展望未来在美元走弱下，人民币国际化与走强趋势下，中国取得更多的商品定价权，石油人民币时代來了，大宗商品，石油，黄金将走强。
opec的减产至2018年3月並可能延长期限.

油价在未来6个月内有希望回到60美元/桶的水平。

只是分享，投资请三思且自负。

A)https://www.docdroid.net/Y3AdbRC/hibiscus.pdf
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5199.jsp
http://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/
B)

Shell Trilogy: The Final Call

Author: Lau333   |    Publish date: Fri, 22 Sep 2017, 10:10 PM 

---

This post is a continuation of previous "Shell Trilogy: The Great Sale" article which is accessible from here. 

3) North Sabah EOR (Announced Oct 2016, closed ??)
Unlike Anasuria which is a concession, North Sabah EOR is under Production Sharing Scheme (PSC), details of which you can read more here.  PSC is essentially a type of profit sharing arrangement where the profit is shared between the government and the operator after deducting out the cost. But the government will always has bills to pay even if the PSC is not making a profit.  Hence, PSC is structured in such a way that caps the maximum cost that can be recouped in a reporting period (The technical term is Cost Recovery Ceiling, but there is no impact to accounting profit as any unrecoverd cost can be bought forward). The implication is the operator has to invest more of his own money to keep the operation ongoing especially during the low oil price period where costs have exceed the ceiling. Combined with Shell's reluctance to invest further on marginal assets, these provided the backdrop on the motivation for Shell to dispose its North Sabah assets.

At US$25m, is Hibiscus getting a good deal? Let's first compare the factsheets between North Sabah and Anasuria (a superb deal by all counts). Tabulation below shows key assets parameters of Anasuria and North Sabah:

	Anasuria	North Sabah	Comment
Purchase Price (PP)	US$52.5m1	US$25.0m2	1) Economic interest since 1/1/2015 (~15 mths to close 10/3/2016) 2) Economic interest since 1/1/2017 (9 mths & counting to closing date)
2P Reserves (Acquisition Date)	20.2 MMbbl Oil 2.3 MMbbloe Gas	31.0 MMbbl Oil	Data is from Bursa Malaysia announcements
2C Reserves	5.6 MMbbl	39.5 MMbbl	Anasuria figure from FY16 AR
OPEX in bpd	US$29.873/15.11	US$13.924	3) Based on actual 2014 spending.  Simple average 4 quarters OPEX has since dropped to US$15.11 4) Based on exchange rate USDMYR: 3.9592:1 @June 2016
Daily runrate in bpd	3.5k	9k
Purchase Price (PP) per 2P bbl	US$2.33	US$3.235	5) See below
PP per 2P+2C bbl	US$1.87	US$1.425	5) See below

Table below shows the differences between concession (Anasuria) and PSC (North Sabah). 

	Anasuria	North Sabah	Comment
Type	Concession	PSC
Royalty	None	10% of Revenue 5% - Federal, 5% - State	Royalty payment is tax deductible
Profit Sharing	None	Gov: Hibiscus-70:30	Source: See link
Tax Rate*	30% Corporate Tax + 10% Supplementary Charges	38% Tax Rate

Not all barrels are equal. To have an apple to apple comparison, we must first normalize a concession barrel with a PSC barrel. As can be seen in the first table, Anasuria Opex per barrel has nearly halved to US$15.11 since 2014. This is comparable with 2016 Opex of US$13.94 stated for North Sabah. We could therefore fairly deduced that the cost structure is quite similar for both the Anasuria & North Sabah. For modelling purpose, assuming oil price at US$55, Opex cost US$15 and a similar Capex cost US$15, total cost is US$30/US$55 or 45%

Anasuria(Concession)

Revenue (A)		US$55
Cost (B)		US$30
PBT	C=A-B	US$25
Tax (D)	40% Tax Rate	US$10
Net Profit	E=C-D	US$15

North Sabah (PSC)*

Revenue (A)		US$55
Cost (B)		US$30
Royalty (R)		US$5.50
PBT	C=A-B-R	US$19.50
His's Share of PBT	H=30% of C	US$5.85
Tax (D)	38% Tax Rate	US$2.22
Net Profit	E=H-D	US$3.63

Based on the model above, each barrel oil produced in Anasuria is US$15/US$3.6 = ~4x more profitable than a barrel produced in North Sabah. The other way of putting it is to say it takes 4 barrel oil oil produced in North Sabah to earn similar profit to a barrel of oil produced in Anasuria. So, using a normalizing factor N=4 to the Purchase Price per barrel oil in North Sabah,

• North Sabah Purchase Price per 2P bbl= US$25m/31mbbls x 4= US$ 3.23
• North Sabah Purchase Price per 2P+2C bbl=US$25m/70.5mbbls x 4= US$1.42

​All in all for North Sabah, the Purchase Price per 2P bbl was at 40% premium compare with Anasuria.  Inclusive of 2C resources, North Sabah's Purchase Price per 2P+2C barrel is at 25% discount. Overall, it can be reasonably concluded that the valuation for North Sabah is equally attractive compare with the Anasuria deal but at a smaller scale. And that is even without factoring that Anasuria's purchase price was based on Opex level of US$29.87 per bbl when the deal was struck.

Final Words
​The past few years were anything but an easy ride for Hibiscus. The management shift from exploration-oriented Jackpot to production-focused slow-but-steady growth has given much comfort. Those nightmares of flushing RM 100m+ down the exploration well only to encounter dry hole are truly over. If the Anasuria deal was the deal that save Hibiscus from bankruptcy, will the North Sabah deal propel Hibiscus to new height? The low asset entry price does not guarantee profitability but certainly provide much needed safety buffer against lower oil price. Today the focus shall be on the production costs, facilities uptime and maximizing reserve recovery, something certainly Hibiscus has better control with. 
As for the status of the deal, Hibiscus announced on 29/05/2017 that Petronas Carigali has waived its pre-emption rights under a joint operating agreement. Petronas has also conditionally approved the assignment of the Shell's interest to Hibiscus, which means the deal has not closed yet and can only be closed upon fulfilment of all conditions set by Petronas. Do take note that original closure date of the end of Q22017 was already due. 

As for the share price, monster upward move of 39.7% on 20/09/2017 has exceeded the author's expectation by a wide margin. Without the benefit of hindsight, the author initially expects the RM0.56 level to be broken only upon the closure of the deal. The author believes that whatever windfall benefit from North Sabah deal should already be partially reflected in the price. With Brent oil price currently hovering at near the year high, caution is strongly advised. The author is humble and has been humbled by market numerous times to learn that investing is less about being correct than to simply make a profit out of our investment. The adage of "let the profit runs and cut the losses" can never be more apt here. Immediate support level is at RM0.61 and a much stronger level at RM0.56. Price dropping below RM0.56 flashes a big bearish signal. 

Disclaimer:

1)  The author has no access to management of Petronas, Shell or Hibiscus. The report was written purely based on the news reports, company statements and media releases together with industrial trade reports. Verificacy of the report is based on best efforts and was subject to the author's knowledge inadequacies, assumptions used and the probabilistic nature of the future events.

2)  The author has position in Hibiscus and while trying to stay as objectively as possible but may still be influenced by subconscious confirmation and memory bias. 

C)

Shell Trilogy: The Great Sale

Author: Lau333   |    Publish date: Wed, 20 Sep 2017, 09:55 PM 

---

April 2015 marks a new chapter in the long, illustrious history of Shell when it announced it was acquiring British Gas for £47bn.   Simultaneously, Shell declared the combined business would sell off £17bn in assets, which would be returned to shareholder through share buyback. It certainly seemed a smart strategy considering oil price had plunged from $100+ per bbl to around $60 per bbl by the time the announcement was made. What could not be foreseen however was that oil price would further plunge to below $30 per bbl in Jan 2016, barely 8 months later. In response, Shell vowed to cut investment in order to protect its dividend. 

All projects were scrutinized for their cash flow viabilities.  Decisions were made where non-critical investments were postponed while those not able to self-sustained were earmarked to be disposed.  Guided by the management decision, accelerated by the plunging oil price, the great sale especially those assets on the fringe (to Shell at least) began.   When the big boys dine, we feed on their crumbs and frankly, the taste is not too bad!!   And hence, the trilogy of deals relevant within the universe of Bursa Malaysia.

1) Anasuria Cluster (Deal announced Aug 2015, closed March 2016)

Hibiscus's quarterly reports revealed Opex cost around US$15 per barrels.  But just two years earlier in 2014, the average cost per barrel in North Sea was around US$30.  With oil price dropping to around US$30, this made Anasuria a no-brainer sale.   How cheap then is the selling price?  Hibiscus paid US$52.5 million for 50% stake in Anasuria.  RCP Energy (a third party analyst) valued the asset (Hibiscus's portion) at US$113m in Sept 2015 report and US$208m in subsequent June 2016 report.   Even then, the economic benefits were backdated to 1st Jan 2015.   As shown below after adjusting for the "working capital adjustments and accrued benefits" of US$24.8m, the net purchase price was US$52m -US$24.8m = US$27.2m ONLY for an asset valued at US$208m!!  Similarly, Hibiscus reported FY2016 negative goodwill gain on acquisition of RM364.1m.

Hibiscus's one year chart post completion told an interesting story of both a cautionary note and an opportunity. A cautionary note in the sense that a deal shall never be evaluated in isolation but must be within the context of operating environment. At the time of the deal completion, Hibiscus was trapped in a vicious vortex due to plunging oil prices, so vicious that eventually resulted in zeroing out all its investment in its 2 major operating subsidiaries Lime Plc and Hirex, a loss totaling some RM280.4m which would have outstripped its market capitalization at the time. The windfall of RM364.1m from Anasuria acquisition had more than cushioned all the impairment losses.   More crucially, Anasuria gives Hibiscus a business unit that is generating positive cash flow quarter after quarter.  Without a hint of exaggeration, Anasuria was the deal that saved Hibiscus from a near certain bankruptcy.   The Aug 2016 announcement of 4QFY2016 results gave the clearest indication that the worst was over and hence lay the opportunity.      Famed investor, Benjamin Graham once remarked that "In the short run, the market is a beauty contest but in the longer run is a weighing machine". The market will wake up, as it eventually did, to the potential of new Hibiscus, no doubt given the jolt by the announcement of the North Sabah deal. 

2) Hengyuan (previously known as Shell Refinery Company (SRC)) (Deal announced Feb 2016, closed Dec 2016) 

Not too dissimilar to Anasuria, the sale of 51% stake in SRC for a meagre sum of RM 1.80 per share (or US$66m) was driven by the desire to avoid capital investment more than anything else. So firm was its decision not to invest further in SRC than it chose to impair the refinery asset by RM461m in 4QFY2015, officially declaring to the world it would not upgrade the refinery. At worst, Shell was prepared to go as far as converting the refinery to an oil terminal, essentially writing off the whole asset. To Shell, US$66m sale is a welcome upside from a complete write off!! This is akin to your neighbor selling his house way below the market value because he is migrating oversea and not coming back. Would you similarly sell your house at that price? Well, unless one of your neighbor is a certain EPF…

A perfectly fine refinery with a name plate capacity of 156kbpd and is upgradable to meet Euro 4M and 5 standard at a relatively modest sum of US$160m which we found out later.   How big is the discount then? A brand new 260kbpd, recently commissioned in Yunnan, China was built at the cost of US$4.4b, or roughly US$1.6b per 100kbpd capacity.  At RM1.80 per share, total Enterprise Value (EV = Market cap + Debt - Cash) based on 4QFY2015 data was around RM1.85b or just US$282m per 100kbpd name plate capacity (USD:MYR 4.2:1), a mere 18% of the sticker price of a brand new refinery.  Adding up 150% of the reported US$160m upgrade cost will increase EV per 100kbpd to US$436m, just some 27% of a brand new refinery.    The math get more interesting if you consider than for every RM1 increment in Hengyuan's price is equal to 2.9% of a brand new refinery.   What does that mean? Well, if you value the refinery at 33% of a brand new refinery that is more than 100% gain from Shell selling price of RM1.80.  At 40%, that's more than triple the Shell selling price. 

3) North Sabah EOR (Announced Oct 2016, closed ??)

To be continued...

Disclaimer:

1)  The author has no access to management of Shell, Hengyuan and Hibiscus. The report was written purely based on the news reports, company statements and media releases together with industrial trade reports.  Verificacy of the report is based on best efforts and was subject to the author's knowledge inadequacies, assumptions used and the probabilistic nature of the future events.

2)  The author has positions in both Hibiscus and Hengyuan and while trying to stay as objectively as possible but may still be influenced by subconscious confirmation and memory bias.

D)

Public IB Research starts coverage on Hibiscus, target price RM1.06

theedgemarkets.com

/

theedgemarkets.com

September 20, 2017 08:52 am MYT

-A+A

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 20): Public Investment Bank Bhd has initiated coverage on Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd with an “Outperform” rating at 47 sen and target price of RM1.06 and said Hibiscus continues to deliver production from its first producing field, the Anasuria Cluster in UK with average circa 3500bbls/day, anchoring its position more prominently amongst its oil peers.

In a note today, the research house said it remains positive on the Group’s performance, reaffirmed by its ability and perseverance to continue securing producing assets.

It said in October 2016, the Group announced another milestone, the conditional sale and purchase agreement (SPA) for the Group to acquire the 50% stake of the North Sabah Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) PSC.

“We are initiating coverage on Hibiscus with an Outperform call with a target price of RM1.06 premised on our sum-of-parts valuation.

“Our valuation is based on the relative undervaluation of Hibiscus’ Anasuria Cluster asset valued at RM0.58 based on our DCF valuation with an 11.0% WACC, and after close review of its upcoming North Sabah acquisition based on its 2P reserves only, we believe would add another 48 sen to the Group’s fair value,” it said.

E)

澳认证西海马项目重大 
大红花石油盘中扬5%2017年9月15日   



（吉隆坡15日讯）大红花石油（HIBISCS，5199，主板工业产品股）的澳洲西海马计划，在今月初确认获得该国政府认证为重大项目后，公司股价节节攀升，今日闭市时收46仙令吉，起1.5仙或3.37%，写下近5个月新高。
大红花石油今日盘初一度升2仙，或4.49%至46.5仙。同时，该股今日交投活跃，成交量有3144万8000股。


根据澳洲制造业新闻网9月8日的报道，该国的工业、创新与科学部部长亚瑟赛诺丁诺斯，已向媒体确认，联邦政府将继续承认西海马计划，作为重大项目的地位。
西海马计划是大红花石油子公司——Carnarvon Hibiscus，位于澳洲东南海岸吉普斯兰（Gippsland）的勘探项目。
诺丁诺斯指出，公司预计可在计划为期6年期间，每日产1万2000桶油。
根据报道，Carnarvon Hibiscus前后将在西海马计划投入2亿4000万美元（约10亿令吉）。
获继续认证为重大项目，意味着该计划将获澳洲政府提供便利服务，如针对批准程序提供初步咨询和支援，也会引导程序进展到国州政府，借此减少计划展延的问题。

F)油田维稳．木槿花石油盈利料倍增

Author: Tan KW   |    Publish date: Tue, 8 Aug 2017, 04:52 PM 

2017-08-08 09:55
木槿花石油现有油田及新收购油田共享合约贡献，料带动2018至2020财政年盈利翻数倍增长。
（吉隆坡8日讯）木槿花石油（HIBISCS，5199，主板工业产品组）现有油田及新收购油田共享合约贡献，料带动2018至2020财政年盈利翻数倍增长。

BIMB研究对该公司盈利展望正面，主要是看好Anasuria油田将带来稳定现金流，与此同时，新收购的沙巴北部油田产能复苏共享合约50%股权也潜在让其享有结构性盈利成长。

该行认为，以该公司低成本结构，相信可从油商资本再配置及合理化措施中受惠，同时，因业务专注于上游，对油商资本开销依赖较低，料可让投资者直接从该公司享有原油价潜在复苏收益。

有鉴于此，该行预计，在Anasuria油田贡献下，2017财政年有望转亏为盈，2018至2020财政年，则因沙巴北部油田取得至2040年生产权及开始于2018财政年下半年贡献，盈利料翻数倍增长。

考量上述正面因素，该行首次给予该股“买进”评级，目标价65仙。
G)

How Iraq’s Kurdish Independence Referendum Could Impact Oil Markets

By 

Angelina Rascouet

 and 

Khalid Al Ansary

2017年9月21日 上午5:00 [GMT+8] 2017年9月24日 下午3:28 [GMT+8]

• Referendum on Kurdish independence planned for Sept. 25
• Geopolitical risks abound as oil-rich region is set to vote

Does OPEC Have Any Fight Left in It?

Iraq’s Kurdish provinces plan to vote in a referendum on independence on Sept. 25, a poll that regional and Western powers, not to mention the central government in Baghdad, have decried as a catalyst for greater instability in a region gutted by war. At stake are the petrodollars that have helped sustain the Kurdish Regional Government’s semi-autonomous rule after a budgetary deal with the federal government fell apart. Some of this oil wealth lies in disputed areas where the referendum will be held.

1. Why should the oil market care about this referendum?

The KRG says northern Iraq’s Kurdish enclave could hold 45 billion barrels of crude reserves, more than OPEC member Nigeria. The region pumped about 544,600 barrels of oil a day in 2016 and is expected to boost output to 602,000 barrels this year, consultant Rystad Energy said in April. Last year’s production represented about 12 percent of Iraq’s total supply, based on data compiled by Bloomberg News. These volumes alone would put the KRG on par with OPEC’s Ecuador and Qatar. 

To get its oil to market, the landlocked Kurdish area relies on a pipeline to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, Turkey. Kurdish exports averaged 515,000 barrels a day last year, according to cargo tracking compiled by Bloomberg News. Shipments averaged 583,600 barrels a day year to date, the data show.

2. Does the referendum pose a threat to oil production?

The referendum will be held not only in the three governorates, or provinces, of the Kurdish region but also in the disputed region of Kirkuk and its oil fields, where Iraq first discovered crude in 1927. The federal government deems it illegal for the KRG to include Kirkuk in its referendum and has threatened to retaliate. 

“The reactions to the referendum were childish,” Ahmed Al-Askari, head of the energy committee at the Kirkuk provincial council, said in a phone interview. “We are peaceful people and ready to negotiate for our rights.”

Kurdish forces took control of territory around the city of Kirkuk in June 2014 after the Iraqi Army fled from Islamic State militants, but Baghdad refuses to recognize Kurdish control of the area.

“We have some differences with the minister of natural resources of the KRG over the Kirkuk field,” Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi said on Sept. 19. The KRG’s ministry of natural resources declined to respond to a Bloomberg request for comment.

Because the poll is non-binding, the International Energy Agency doesn’t “anticipate any immediate change in the status quo at this time” and will monitor developments as they unfold, it said in an emailed statement. The IEA tracks supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer.

3. Are oil exports at risk?

The biggest risk to exports would be for neighboring Turkey -- which opposes the referendum, given it has its own restive Kurdish minority -- to shut down the pipeline that can transport as much as 700,000 barrels from Kurdish fields to Ceyhan, according to regional specialists Michael Knights of the Washington Institute and Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute. 

A Turkish closure of the link would wipe out recent gains in the KRG’s energy industry, Knights said, citing the Kurds’ regular payments to international oil companies in the past two years, a resolution of overdue receivables owed to some of these businesses and a proposal by Russia’s Rosneft Oil PJSC to build a natural gas pipeline in the region. The fact that the oil pipeline has operated without interruption since the Kurds announced the referendum in June should reassure energy companies, Knights said.

4. Are there risks for oil companies?

Publicly listed international oil companies operating in the Kurdish territory include Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd., Genel Energy Plc and DNO ASA. Gulf Keystone operates the 36,700 barrel-a-day Shaikan field, while DNO produces at the Tawke field. Around Kirkuk, a local oil company, KAR Group, operates the Khurmala, Avanna and Bai Hassan fields.

Risks to operating in the region have eased amid the progress cited by Knights of the Washington Institute and recent military advances against Islamic State in northern Iraq.

“Our industry is the most important industry in the region, and it’s in everyone’s interest to protect” it, Jon Ferrier, Gulf Keystone chief executive officer, said in an interview on Sept. 19. Officials at Genel declined to comment. DNO couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

5. Why does Kirkuk matter?

Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens are all competing to control Kirkuk, making the city and its oil-rich area a potential flashpoint for conflict. Tensions are threatening to escalate after clashes this week between Kurds and Turkmen during an event to promote the referendum. Iraq’s parliament voted to dismiss the province’s Kurdish governor, a move KRG President Massoud Barzani said would end the partnership with Baghdad. Kirkuk fields under Kurdish control are pumping 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day, according to Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Fayyad Al-Nima.

“If the Kurds include Kirkuk by force in the referendum process, it will be considered then an occupied province by non-Iraqi forces, and then the prime minister will be obliged to take measures to take back these lands,” Khalid Al-Miferji, who represents Kirkuk in Iraq’s federal parliament, said in a phone interview.

H)

OPEC或监测原油出口，油价6个月内将突破60美元？

2017-09-22 19:32:49 塔伦12456

汇通网讯——9月22日OPEC在维也纳举行减产监督会议，有迹象表明，减产最终可能会推高油价。OPEC或在本次会议上讨论延长甚至扩大减产，并建议进行非正式的出口监测，油价在未来6个月内有希望回到60美元/桶的水平。

周五(9月22日)，OPEC在维也纳举行减产监督会议，与此同时有迹象表明，他们的减产协议最终可能会推高原油价格。包括俄罗斯、沙特在内的24个产油国在2016年年底同意减产约180万桶/日。OPEC随后又将减产协议延长至2018年3月31日，旨在减少全球石油供应过剩。

低油价侵蚀海湾国家的财政状况

此前，石油价格已从2014年的100美元/桶跌至30美元/桶以下(13年低点)，虽然对汽车司机和依赖石油产品的行业来说，这是个好消息，但油价走低对富裕的海湾国家的财政状况造成了损害。例如，沙特阿拉伯自2014年底以来已从其财政储备中撤出逾2300亿美元，并预计今年的预算赤字将达到530亿美元。

过去6个月，油价一直摇摇摆摆，但在数据显示全球供应过剩终于开始萎缩之后，本周油价已达到50美元/桶的水平。

OPEC或在本次会议上讨论延长甚至扩大减产

OPEC的说法是，周五在六国监督委员会石油输出国组织总部召开的会议，是对协议的遵守情况进行审查。但有猜测称，包括俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克在内各国能源部长可能会建议，延长甚至扩大减产协议。据彭博报道，科威特石油部长表示，会议不会讨论延长期限，阿尔及利亚能源部长却表示将会讨论延长减产。

SEB的分析师Bjarne Schieldrop称，OPEC现在很高兴，也很满意，预计产油国会乐意将减产持续到2018年。与此同时，Schieldrop补充，沙特渴望看到油价保持在一个体面的水平，将有利于其国家石油公司沙特阿美的IPO。

然而，危险在于，较高的原油价格可能会帮助美国的页岩油生产商提高产量，并使市场恢复盈余。此外，在欧洲和美国，夏季对汽油的旺盛需求预计将在未来几个月减弱。近期是因为欧洲和美国的汽油需求帮助推高了油价。

油价在未来6个月内有希望回到60美元/桶的水平

据外媒消息称，OPEC委员会可能会在本次会议上建议进行非正式的出口监测，此举是为了更好的平衡原油市场。

有分析师称，近期美国原油出口迅速攀升或许暗示了，油价在未来6个月内有希望回到60美元/桶的水平。2015年初，美国正式解除长达40年的原油出口禁令，2015年12月18日，美国国会取消了对墨西哥的出口禁令。从那以后，美国原油出口迅速攀升。

8月飓风哈维袭击美国德克萨斯州，重创其石油行业，尽管美国进口、国内生产和国内需求都从哈维后的低点反弹，但只有石油出口达到并超过了飓风前的水平。

分析人士认为，这是因为WTI-布伦特原油价差扩大导致的。过去6个月，WTI-布伦特原油的价差在2-3美元/桶的范围徘徊，但在过去两周，WTI-布伦特原油的价差已飙升至每桶6美元，比去年同期增长了200%。推动美国原油出口快速复苏。

分析人士称，这种情况短期内不太可能改变，因为在飓风哈维之前，该差价已经达到3-4美元/桶的水平，表明其原因可能是因为OPEC减产；基于这一分析，分析人士称，保守估计油价的的6个月的目标价为每60美元/桶。