---个人估算FLBHD 2016财年EPS=16SEN,,PE=13,股价=RM2.08
而Q3和Q4可派共10 SEN股息,现RM1.72買入,DY(周息率)=5.8%,非常具吸引力,股市永
远记得,当基本面小变下,就是机会了.
---于31-3-16年報中得知kyy于下列证行共有6931,000股:
ta(2334,200),kenanga(1750,800),ALLIANCE(1100,000),MAYBANK(781,000),AFFIN(520,000),
RHB(445,000),
KYY的 no of shares（7月）total of shares 是7,323,100.实际是增加392,100股,仍然对公司看好,因此不用担心.
------30大股东共持有68325,717股(66.2%),总股数为103200,000股
1)转贴:
FLBHD - 2016Q的Profit Before Tax Excluding Forex Gain/Loss)是7.792 mil，足足比2015Q1的4.227mil提升了84.34%!!!
Author: chongkc1957 | Publish date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016, 11:27 PM
- 总体而言，FLBHD假设可以持续派发15仙或以上的股息，公司的Dividend Yield就有 7 - 8%。而RM2.00以下的价格是有严重被低估的迹象
1271.【回归根本】- FLBHD(5197) Excluding 外汇盈利/亏损会变得怎么样？ + Tax Rate = 24%.
昨天去参加了Hevea的AGM, 遇到了3位来自Johor的股东。其中一位是FLBHD的股东(F先生)，之前他也去了FLBHD在Sabah的股东大会。他告诉我FLBHD的股东非常的专业，而且也很详细耐心地回答股东的问题。所以F先生本身还是很看好FLBHD，毕竟FLBHD拥接近89 mil的现金在手。此外，管理层也表示今年的产量也比去年增加了不少。
公司出口至美国的plywood主要是用来制造旅游休闲车(RV), 现在RV的销售量已经是08金融风暴后的新高。因此FLBHD的产品在美国还是很有Demand的，所以我们可以看到FLBHD在淡季的Q1也可以有53.286 mil的营业额，位居历史第2高。
此外，他还说网络说应该有人好好计算FLBHD的Operating Profit成长，看看再排出外汇的因素之下，FLBHD到底赚了多少钱。因此笔者就做了一张图表供大家参考：
- 大家看看黄色的Total Forex Gain/Loss，2015年的外汇盈利是5.251 mil。扣除外汇盈利，公司的PBT是31.066 mil。
- 而公司在2015年的Corporate Tax rate是12.65%，由于排除外汇后的盈利减少。所以笔者使用了12%的Tax rate，PBT就是27.338 mil。比真正的31.722 mil减少了13.82%。但是也是非常出色盈利了，所以FLBHD【排除了外汇】后的EPS是26.49，还是处于非常出色的水平。
- 不过来到了2016年，公司享有较低的Tax rate，主要是因为因为他们出口plywood以及laminated veneer wood至国外，所以享有Double tax deduction Benefit。
- 去年整年FLBHD的Annual Corporate Tax rate是12.65%，可是最近季度却几乎上涨了1倍，Q1是24%的Tax。这也是为什么公司在赚了更多钱的情况下，Profit after tax却下跌。
- 假设仔细看，2016Q的Profit Before Tax Excluding Forex Gain/Loss (000)是7.792 mil，足足比2015Q1的4.227mil提升了84.34%。
总结：
- 假设诚如管理层所说，4月的产量已经比2015一起Q1来高的话，公司的operating profit正在处于正面的成长中。
- 不过公司在股东大会也表明，原木料的供应有限，这是公司正在面对的一个问题。
- 其次，公司的不再享有Double Tax Deduction Benefit，公司必须增加产能以抵消这个负面因素。
总体而言，FLBHD假设可以持续派发15仙或以上的股息，公司的Dividend Yield就有 7 - 8%。而RM2.00以下的价格是有严重被低估的迹象，因此今天股价再度站回RM2以上。
公司在股东大会说2016Q1使用了3.905的汇率，最近汇率都在4.10附近徘徊。只要6月30日的汇率可以维持在这个水平，公司应改会有1.5 - 2.0 mil之间的外汇盈利。
【回归根本】，只要公司的产量增加并持有有订单，2016年FLBHD是有能力克服种种困难，创造出更好的价值回馈股东。毕竟每年派息6 - 8%的公司，在大马没有可以做到的上市公司不到100家。
Link: http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2016/05/1271-flbhd5197-excluding-tax-rate-24.html
2)转贴:
(RICHE HO) 富家木业FLBHD - 该守或该走？
Author: RicheHo | Publish date: Tue, 5 Jul 2016, 03:01 PM
FLB今天闭市时，再跌3cent，创下了9个月新低。从1月高峰RM3.00左右跌至今天的RM1.71，
FLB总共在6个月里跌了43%！到底这股发生了什么事？笔者有位朋友在1年前从RM1.60-1.70左右买入
，股价暴涨至RM3.00也没套利，然后再看着它跌回成本价，犹如坐了一趟过山车。心情肯定很复杂。
FLB总共在6个月里跌了43%！到底这股发生了什么事？笔者有位朋友在1年前从RM1.60-1.70左右买入
，股价暴涨至RM3.00也没套利，然后再看着它跌回成本价，犹如坐了一趟过山车。心情肯定很复杂。
FLB是由3名伙伴成立于1980年，是一家以沙巴为基地的胶合板制造商。它在2011年上市于大马主要板
。创始人分别是来自台湾的“林氏”、“陆氏”和“杨氏”。FLB的股权结构主要是由个别股东组成，
没有一名股东拥有超过10%。这3大家族在近一年发生了股权变动，当中不知发生什么事。
陆氏家族在2015年大幅度售股，从16%降至7%，继续持股的成员也从3位变成1位。
林氏家族个个成员则增股，从18%增至24%，而杨氏家族并没有多大变化。目前，陆氏依然还在抛股。
。创始人分别是来自台湾的“林氏”、“陆氏”和“杨氏”。FLB的股权结构主要是由个别股东组成，
没有一名股东拥有超过10%。这3大家族在近一年发生了股权变动，当中不知发生什么事。
陆氏家族在2015年大幅度售股，从16%降至7%，继续持股的成员也从3位变成1位。
林氏家族个个成员则增股，从18%增至24%，而杨氏家族并没有多大变化。目前，陆氏依然还在抛股。
FLB近年的业绩都挺出色的，主要归功于外汇盈利。根据2015年财报，FLB有高达99%的销售是来
自出口，主要以USD来交易。翻看FLB的季度报告，FLB在近3个季度的外汇盈利如下：
FY15Q3 (7月至9月) – RM4.27m
FY15Q4 (10月至12月) – RM0.03m
FY16Q1 (1月至3月) – (RM3.56m)
自出口，主要以USD来交易。翻看FLB的季度报告，FLB在近3个季度的外汇盈利如下：
FY15Q3 (7月至9月) – RM4.27m
FY15Q4 (10月至12月) – RM0.03m
FY16Q1 (1月至3月) – (RM3.56m)
USD/MYR在FY15Q4时，正处在4.25左右，为何FLB却没有外汇盈利呢？仔细看看USD/MYR的图表
，你会发现USD/MYR在FY15Q3时是从3.75暴涨至接近4.50，在FY15Q4时徘徊于4.25左右，
在FY16Q1时从4.30暴跌至4.00左右。这说明了只有很大的跌幅和涨幅，才会造成巨大的外汇盈利
或亏损。FLB在之前兑换的外汇和之后兑换的外汇，之间的差距就会是所谓的账面外汇盈利或亏损。
对于FY16Q2的看法，笔者认为FLB会有外汇盈利，预计在RM1.5m至2m左右。
，你会发现USD/MYR在FY15Q3时是从3.75暴涨至接近4.50，在FY15Q4时徘徊于4.25左右，
在FY16Q1时从4.30暴跌至4.00左右。这说明了只有很大的跌幅和涨幅，才会造成巨大的外汇盈利
或亏损。FLB在之前兑换的外汇和之后兑换的外汇，之间的差距就会是所谓的账面外汇盈利或亏损。
对于FY16Q2的看法，笔者认为FLB会有外汇盈利，预计在RM1.5m至2m左右。
此外，FLB之前拥有的货运费双重扣税津贴也在2016年被撤销。它在2014年和2015年节省了
高达RM3.0m和RM3.8m的税。在失去了双重扣税津贴后，FLB必须依照政府规定的企业税率24%
来交税。
高达RM3.0m和RM3.8m的税。在失去了双重扣税津贴后，FLB必须依照政府规定的企业税率24%
来交税。
在FY16Q1季度报告里，管理层表示FLB目前面对其他生产商的激烈价格竞争。外围因素也充满了
挑战，尤其沙巴的最低薪金制度将在7月从RM800提升至RM920。面对这些挑战，FLB将会专注在
提高生产量，以降低生产成本。或许这也是FLB仅能做的应对措施吧。值得一提的是，FLB在2015年
投入的CAPEX高达RM4.5m，和2013年的RM2.0m和2014年的RM2.7m相比，高出了不少。
管理层曾表示FLB将投入资金以购买先进的机械设备，不知这CAPEX是不是投入了这一项。
挑战，尤其沙巴的最低薪金制度将在7月从RM800提升至RM920。面对这些挑战，FLB将会专注在
提高生产量，以降低生产成本。或许这也是FLB仅能做的应对措施吧。值得一提的是，FLB在2015年
投入的CAPEX高达RM4.5m，和2013年的RM2.0m和2014年的RM2.7m相比，高出了不少。
管理层曾表示FLB将投入资金以购买先进的机械设备，不知这CAPEX是不是投入了这一项。
总结来说，近几年FLB主要依靠扣税津贴和外汇盈利来提升业绩。可是，一旦这2个利好因素消失，
恐怕FLB将回去之前FY13的业绩。从生意角度来看，FLB其实并没有真正在成长，也没有在扩展生意
。这可解释为何它在FY12-14的业绩都差不多一样。
恐怕FLB将回去之前FY13的业绩。从生意角度来看，FLB其实并没有真正在成长，也没有在扩展生意
。这可解释为何它在FY12-14的业绩都差不多一样。
目前，FLB拥有RM62m的现金。基于FY16的表现预料比FY15来的差，笔者预计FLB将不会再派发
15cent股息。保守估计股息应该是和FY13和FY14的8cent一样。以目前的股价RM1.71来计算，
股息率是4.68%。
15cent股息。保守估计股息应该是和FY13和FY14的8cent一样。以目前的股价RM1.71来计算，
股息率是4.68%。
至于它的潜在价值，在失去扣税津贴和外汇盈利的利好下，笔者估计FLB的FY16净利会在
RM15-16m左右。以103.2m的股数来计算，每股净利将会是15 cent左右。再以PE 10 至 12倍来推算
，FLB的潜在价值大约是每股RM1.50 – 1.80。
RM15-16m左右。以103.2m的股数来计算，每股净利将会是15 cent左右。再以PE 10 至 12倍来推算
，FLB的潜在价值大约是每股RM1.50 – 1.80。
3)
[转贴] FLBHD 5197 - prajna
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 25 May 2016, 10:57 AM
2016-05-25
经营范围
* Plywood，Veneer，LVL
* Electricity
经营表现
* 营收和净利稳健上升
* 流动比和速动比健康
* 库存和应收账款相对净利处历史低点
* roa，roe，roic进步，满意
* 毛利润率和净利润率上升
* 营运开支和折旧相对毛利润走低
* DUPONT三项指标健康
* 营运资本稳健上升
* 自由现金流充足
* 营业现金流健康
* 现金循环周期还行
* 净现金，定期存款利润不俗
* 主要市场：美国
* 主要产品：Plywood
* 董事持股29%
* 基金持股1.5%
* 官有缘持股6.7%
Chairman’s Statement
* 营收增加，主因：销量高，汇率
* PBT增加109.94%
* 加大人力资源的投资
* 利用木头废料发电
* 争取美国市场的木头认证
* 展望：继续成长
操作
* 目前股价RM2.14，PE 6.96，DY 7.01
* 官有缘宣称会将持股控制在5%以下，会有暂时性的卖压
* 业绩看到成长性
* 经营表现优秀
* 现金流理想
* 根据DCF模型推算，推荐买进价为RM1.98
4)转贴:
Focus Lumber: the wind of change of foreign exchange kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz | Publish date: Tue, 24 May 2016, 05:31 PM
Just before Focus Lumber (Flbhd) announced its third quarter results for period ended 30th September
2015 somewhere on 17th November 2015, its share price jumped by 70% within 3 months from
RM1.84 on October 12 2015 to a high of RM3.09 on January 12 2016 as shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Past one year share price movement of Focus Lumber
The results show the vast improvement for the third quarter 2015 with net profit increased by more
than 200% from RM3.3m to RM9.6m for the corresponding period in 2014. EPS, as a result, also
increased by more than 200% from a EPS of 3.2 sen to 9.4 sen for the quarter.
Some investors who purely base on a single metric of “Profit growth”, without considering where this
“growth” comes from, saw a great opportunity and annualized the EPS by multiplying by 4 to the
single quarter exceptional result and obtained an expected EPS of 37.6 sen for the next 12 months,
and chased the share price up to more than RM3.00 in early January 2016.
Focus Lumber only has a total number of 103.2m shares outstanding with a total market capitalization
of RM258m at that price of say RM2.50. The free float is even less. With just a capital of RM18m, y
ou can buy and own 7% of its total market capitalization. If one uses 50% margin finance, he just
needs RM9m in capital outlay. There are some players in the market who have that amount of money,
and much more. Hence it is very easy to jack up the price, isn’t it?
Why not? Trees can grow up to the sky. With net profit tripled in that quarter and quarterly result
annualized, the profit growth was more than 200%. With that growth compounded for the next
5 years, even at half that rate, Flbhd EPS will balloon to RM12 per share. With a PE ratio of 10 then,
it should worth RM120 a share! Who doesn’t want to be a billionaire?
However, many failed to see that the greatly improved result for the third quarter of 2015 was in
a major part, due to the gain in foreign currency adjustment of about RM4.7m, or about 4.5 sen
a share, a result of rising USD against Ringgit from the beginning to the end of the period as shown
in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2
Without that gain, the EPS for the quarter is only about 5 sen. The EPS for the quarter was boasted
by this foreign exchange gain of a whopping 47%! Will USD continue to strengthen at such a high
and steady rate against the Ringgit in the next 5 years?
How could a one-time-off foreign exchange translation gain to be used to extrapolate the expected
profit in the future when the foreign exchange rate can go up and down, and according to academic
research, nobody can predict correctly and consistently the direction of the change in the future?
There came the power of mean reversion in investing. Here are some examples of the power of mean
reversion in investing, a very powerful phenomenon in investing indeed.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/95848.jsp
Subsequently, Flbhd’s share price drops from the high of RM3.09 to less than RM2.00 in just less than
two months, or a third of its value when the power of mean reversion took place when Ringgit s
trengthened against USD. Investors who blindly follow this fuzzy profit growth investing strategy,
without understanding where this “growth” came about, lost a bundle when they panic and sold their
shares at less than RM2.00, or had no choice but forced sold by their investment banks because of
margin calls.
“Wonderful companies become risky when people overpay for them.” Peter Lynch
The moral of the story is; Trees can’t grow to sky, and in investing, be conservative and invest with
a high margin of safety, and for long term. Most importantly, do not be greedy by using margin finance
as constantly propagated by investment bankers and individuals alike. If you do not make double or
triple return without the margin finance, it is okay, because you may lose everything you have if the
event turns against you, and it happens often in investing, especially in the short term.
“Focus on the downside and the upside will take care of itself.”
The latest quarterly results ending 31st March 2016
Focus Lumber announced its first quarter 2016 results ending 31st March 2016 on 20th May 2016.
Its revenue jumped by 77% to RM53.3m and gross profit doubled to RM14.9m as compared to the
corresponding period in 2015. However, its net profit remains flat at RM3.3m compared to the
corresponding period the previous year. When compared to the preceding quarter, net profit sinks
by 69% from an EPS of 10.4 sen to just 3.2 sen.
As expected, the share price of focus Lumber sank by 33 sen, or 14% at the opening bell on 23rd
May 2016. It closed at RM2.07 at the end of the day, for a loss of 11%, in just one day.
Is Focus Lumber worth investing with the steep correction of its price now?
Questions to ask
One of the cardinal rules in investing is that we should never invest in a share without thorough
analysis because someone asks us to, especially he owns a lot of it. It also doesn’t mean that we
should scorn the share just because of that. We should do our own homework, analyze the business
to see if it is a good and sustainable business in the long run, and more importantly, if the price is
reasonable, or even better, if it is cheap.
Some other questions you should ask and seek answers before investing in it are but not limited to
the followings.
The well written article below by Harry appeared in i3investor yesterday may give you some good clues.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/96910.jsp
Yes, to invest safely and have higher probability of success, one does need to do some homework as
above. Forget about what others say you only need intuition, guts feelings, and no need to look at the
company’s financial performance and position, ROE, cash flows etc. as they are history and hence not
important. Those talks are bullshit.
I always say I do not have the ability to give you stock tips to help you to make money in the stock
market. I also believe no one else will and can do that consistently, and most of all, sincerely. This is
because the stock market is unknowable and unpredictable. You may have heard numerous times how
others had made millions in the stock market, and how they have amplified their wealth by using
other people’s money. But no one will tell you they have lost their fortune, or almost of all what they
have. That is just human nature.
However, if you wish to learn about how you can answer some of the questions above, I may able to help.
“Tis goeth down to a fundamental aspect that “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest”-
Benjamin Franklin
Please contact me with the email address below if you are interested to learn about fundamental
investing for a small fee in order to make good and safe investment decision yourself.
ckc15training2@gmail.com
Believe me, in the long run, it is much better for your future financial wellbeing than following the
stock tips from anybody in the stock market.
K C Chong
5)
首先，大家可以看到FLBHD的Profit Margin大跳水，从去年的17.8% 的
Profit Margin下跌到最新的6.2%。不过Q1一向是FLBHD的单季，这从
过往几年的业绩阴盈利都可以看到。
从上图我们可以看到FLBHD的最新营业额其实是历史第2高，但是盈利却如
此不堪，会不会让大家搞到懊恼呢？？
从上图我们可以看到Trade and other receivables减少了不少，那就意味
着公司收回了至少6.5 mil的账目。加上这个季度赚到的钱，其实公司的现金
流有了很大的进步。
仔细一看，Other Investment增加到了26.434 mil，而现金也变成62.47 mil
，两者相加 = 88.9 mil。Other Investment因为列入Current Asset，
所以是可以在短期内转换成现金的。此外，笔者在2015的年度报告读到，
Other investment其实是放进Money Market Fund赚取利息，平均的
Interest Rate是3.61%.。
全年return 可以是 = 26.434 x 3.61% = 0.954 mil.
所以预计Other Investment以及Cash in Bank全年可以带来接近2 mil的
利息收入。以103.2 mil的股数计算，每股现金 = 88.9/103.2 = 86.1仙。
2015年公司派发了15仙的股息，以FLBHD每股86.1仙的现金来看，
公司未来5年的派息完全不是问题。而且FLBHD是【0借贷】的公司，
所以是0 Finance Cost。
上图是FLBHD的业绩Summary，蓝色格子代表利好因素，红色格子代表
利空因素。
利好因素：
公司说美金走低影响公司的profit margin，此外7月1号开始的最低薪金也
会减少例如。因此公司决定增加产量以及抵消成本增加的负面因素。
为了证实外汇转换亏损时来自公司的资产，笔者找出了公司在2015年年
底持有的美金现金 = 23.194 mil。
2015自美国结算的Trade receivable是11.01mil(2014 is 12.438 mil)，
其他国家大约是2 mil左右。
而我们在上图看到公司在这个季度的外汇亏损失3.557 mil。
笔者计算到的美金资产(包括现金receivable)是34.2 mil，美金下跌了
大约9%。 所以34.2 mil x 9% = 3.078 mil。而且当时还马币对比其
他国家的货币也是走强的，所以其他国家Trade receivable预估也有
0.18 mil左右的Foreign Currency translation losses。
所以笔者初步估算的Foreign Currency translation losses大越是3.25 mil
。不要忘记这3个月公司的现金也增加了不少，所以Foreign Currency
translation losses增加到3.557 mil是有可能的。
而2014年公司美金现金以及Trade receivable大约相等于18.19 mil (cash)
+ 12.44mil = 30.63 mil。而马币在去年全年大约下跌了22.8%，
30.63 mil x 0.23 = 7.0449 mil。
笔者计算出来的答案跟去年全年的外汇盈利相差低于0.05%。不过以上
都是笔者自己的推算，如有错误，请大家多多见谅。
现在美金的汇率是4.07左右，比当初3月31日的3.904又高了17仙，这是否意
味美金假设可以走强到6月尾，Foreign currency translation losses可以
变成Foreign currency translation gains??
不过外汇始终是Extra bonus，公司的营业额以及产线优化才是刺激公司
盈利走高的主因。
因为Double tax deduction benefit在1月1号撤销，所以16Q1比去年Q1足
足多了0.53 mil。所以单单在外汇以及TAX的影响之下，盈利足足减少了接近
4 mil。这种情况可能接下来会发生在不少其他出口公司的身上。
总结：
以现金流以及股息来看，FLBHD无疑是非常出色的。假设美国在6月升息，
这可能回到导致美金走高，FLBHD也有所回弹。而且FLBHD最近几个季度
销售量以及产量有所增加，长期是有看头的。公司也积极打开日本市场，
希望可以通过日本2020的奥运分到一些甜头。
不过，现在盈利在没有进步的情况下，很大可能会遭受大量的卖压。
而这种情形也发 生在去年的5月公布的业绩，当时候FLBHD的货柜因为
美国港口罢工而进不到港口，盈利当个季度下跌19%，股价也下跌了
10%左右。不过最后Delay 的货柜被记录在Q2导致盈利大涨，股价
也是从那个时候开始走高。
缺乏耐心的投资者或许要有止损的觉悟，因为这家公司需要时间让市场
消化外汇的因素。假设你做了功课，你心里或许就会有答案了。
Harryt30
00.10a.m.
2016.05.22
http://harryteo.blogspot.my/2016/05/1260-flbhd5197-tax.html
2015 somewhere on 17th November 2015, its share price jumped by 70% within 3 months from
RM1.84 on October 12 2015 to a high of RM3.09 on January 12 2016 as shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Past one year share price movement of Focus Lumber
The results show the vast improvement for the third quarter 2015 with net profit increased by more
than 200% from RM3.3m to RM9.6m for the corresponding period in 2014. EPS, as a result, also
increased by more than 200% from a EPS of 3.2 sen to 9.4 sen for the quarter.
Some investors who purely base on a single metric of “Profit growth”, without considering where this
“growth” comes from, saw a great opportunity and annualized the EPS by multiplying by 4 to the
single quarter exceptional result and obtained an expected EPS of 37.6 sen for the next 12 months,
and chased the share price up to more than RM3.00 in early January 2016.
Focus Lumber only has a total number of 103.2m shares outstanding with a total market capitalization
of RM258m at that price of say RM2.50. The free float is even less. With just a capital of RM18m, y
ou can buy and own 7% of its total market capitalization. If one uses 50% margin finance, he just
needs RM9m in capital outlay. There are some players in the market who have that amount of money,
and much more. Hence it is very easy to jack up the price, isn’t it?
Why not? Trees can grow up to the sky. With net profit tripled in that quarter and quarterly result
annualized, the profit growth was more than 200%. With that growth compounded for the next
5 years, even at half that rate, Flbhd EPS will balloon to RM12 per share. With a PE ratio of 10 then,
it should worth RM120 a share! Who doesn’t want to be a billionaire?
However, many failed to see that the greatly improved result for the third quarter of 2015 was in
a major part, due to the gain in foreign currency adjustment of about RM4.7m, or about 4.5 sen
a share, a result of rising USD against Ringgit from the beginning to the end of the period as shown
in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2
Without that gain, the EPS for the quarter is only about 5 sen. The EPS for the quarter was boasted
by this foreign exchange gain of a whopping 47%! Will USD continue to strengthen at such a high
and steady rate against the Ringgit in the next 5 years?
How could a one-time-off foreign exchange translation gain to be used to extrapolate the expected
profit in the future when the foreign exchange rate can go up and down, and according to academic
research, nobody can predict correctly and consistently the direction of the change in the future?
There came the power of mean reversion in investing. Here are some examples of the power of mean
reversion in investing, a very powerful phenomenon in investing indeed.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/95848.jsp
Subsequently, Flbhd’s share price drops from the high of RM3.09 to less than RM2.00 in just less than
two months, or a third of its value when the power of mean reversion took place when Ringgit s
trengthened against USD. Investors who blindly follow this fuzzy profit growth investing strategy,
without understanding where this “growth” came about, lost a bundle when they panic and sold their
shares at less than RM2.00, or had no choice but forced sold by their investment banks because of
margin calls.
“Wonderful companies become risky when people overpay for them.” Peter Lynch
The moral of the story is; Trees can’t grow to sky, and in investing, be conservative and invest with
a high margin of safety, and for long term. Most importantly, do not be greedy by using margin finance
as constantly propagated by investment bankers and individuals alike. If you do not make double or
triple return without the margin finance, it is okay, because you may lose everything you have if the
event turns against you, and it happens often in investing, especially in the short term.
“Focus on the downside and the upside will take care of itself.”
The latest quarterly results ending 31st March 2016
Focus Lumber announced its first quarter 2016 results ending 31st March 2016 on 20th May 2016.
Its revenue jumped by 77% to RM53.3m and gross profit doubled to RM14.9m as compared to the
corresponding period in 2015. However, its net profit remains flat at RM3.3m compared to the
corresponding period the previous year. When compared to the preceding quarter, net profit sinks
by 69% from an EPS of 10.4 sen to just 3.2 sen.
As expected, the share price of focus Lumber sank by 33 sen, or 14% at the opening bell on 23rd
May 2016. It closed at RM2.07 at the end of the day, for a loss of 11%, in just one day.
Is Focus Lumber worth investing with the steep correction of its price now?
Questions to ask
One of the cardinal rules in investing is that we should never invest in a share without thorough
analysis because someone asks us to, especially he owns a lot of it. It also doesn’t mean that we
should scorn the share just because of that. We should do our own homework, analyze the business
to see if it is a good and sustainable business in the long run, and more importantly, if the price is
reasonable, or even better, if it is cheap.
Some other questions you should ask and seek answers before investing in it are but not limited to
the followings.
- Are you a short-term trader looking for quick gains (and also quick loss), or a long-term investor
- aiming to build long-term wealth in a sustainable way?
- How has been the financial performance of the core business of the company in the past, and
- what probably will happen in the future, after stripping off the one-time-off gain or loss such
- as that of foreign exchange, sales of assets, revaluation of asset etc.
- How has been its return on capitals? How that return comes about, from high profit margin,
- asset turnover, or leverage?
- How is its dividend history? How is it compared to alternate investment such bank deposit?
- How is its balance sheet? Bear in mind this is important to assess the risk in investing, and
- the sustainability of dividend also depends on how much cash per share in its balance sheet.
- How has been its cash flows, especially free cash flows? This is also hugely important for the
- sustainability of its dividend payment.
- More importantly, is it selling a good price now in term of PE ratio, P/B, P/Cash flows, earnings
- before interest and tax versus its enterprise value etc.?
- What about its cash yield?
- What is its intrinsic value, and hence what is the margin of safety investing in it at this price now?
- Etc.
“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal
and a satisfactory return. Operation not meeting these requirements are speculative”
and a satisfactory return. Operation not meeting these requirements are speculative”
Benjamin Graham
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/96910.jsp
Yes, to invest safely and have higher probability of success, one does need to do some homework as
above. Forget about what others say you only need intuition, guts feelings, and no need to look at the
company’s financial performance and position, ROE, cash flows etc. as they are history and hence not
important. Those talks are bullshit.
I always say I do not have the ability to give you stock tips to help you to make money in the stock
market. I also believe no one else will and can do that consistently, and most of all, sincerely. This is
because the stock market is unknowable and unpredictable. You may have heard numerous times how
others had made millions in the stock market, and how they have amplified their wealth by using
other people’s money. But no one will tell you they have lost their fortune, or almost of all what they
have. That is just human nature.
However, if you wish to learn about how you can answer some of the questions above, I may able to help.
“Tis goeth down to a fundamental aspect that “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest”-Benjamin Franklin
Please contact me with the email address below if you are interested to learn about fundamental
investing for a small fee in order to make good and safe investment decision yourself.
ckc15training2@gmail.com
Believe me, in the long run, it is much better for your future financial wellbeing than following the
stock tips from anybody in the stock market.
K C Chong
5)
[转贴] 【浅谈富佳】- FLBHD(5197) 挑战重重，主因源自【外汇+Tax】双杀，到底何去何从？ - Harryt30
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sun, 22 May 2016, 02:25 PM
Sunday, May 22, 2016
FLBHD的业绩在5月20日出炉，盈利从去年Q1的3.323 mil下跌到最新的
3.312 mil，盈利下跌了RM11,000。不过营业额按年计算却上涨了77%，
也就是上涨了23.2 mil。现在市场都对FLBHD感到非常悲观，应该不少人
会选择在星期把FLBHD卖掉, 很大可能性会出现惶恐性暴跌。不过在决定
买卖之前，你是否读完整份季度报告，知道了所有的前因后果吗？？
那到底什么原因导致盈利下跌呢，我们就先看看这家公司的季度报告里写了
什么。希望笔者的一些功课可以大家些许的帮助，买卖前自己也要做足功课。
Profit Margin下跌到最新的6.2%。不过Q1一向是FLBHD的单季，这从
过往几年的业绩阴盈利都可以看到。
此不堪，会不会让大家搞到懊恼呢？？
不过大家仔细一看上图，其实FLBHD的税前盈利是比去年Q1多了12%的。
把盈利拉低的主因之一就是Tax，待会会有详细的解说。
着公司收回了至少6.5 mil的账目。加上这个季度赚到的钱，其实公司的现金
流有了很大的进步。
仔细一看，Other Investment增加到了26.434 mil，而现金也变成62.47 mil
，两者相加 = 88.9 mil。Other Investment因为列入Current Asset，
所以是可以在短期内转换成现金的。此外，笔者在2015的年度报告读到，
Other investment其实是放进Money Market Fund赚取利息，平均的
Interest Rate是3.61%.。
全年return 可以是 = 26.434 x 3.61% = 0.954 mil.
所以预计Other Investment以及Cash in Bank全年可以带来接近2 mil的
利息收入。以103.2 mil的股数计算，每股现金 = 88.9/103.2 = 86.1仙。
2015年公司派发了15仙的股息，以FLBHD每股86.1仙的现金来看，
公司未来5年的派息完全不是问题。而且FLBHD是【0借贷】的公司，
所以是0 Finance Cost。
利空因素。
利好因素：
- 公司的木材销售量增加以及161Q的美金汇率比15Q1高了不不少，
- 所以Revenue才可以进步到53.2 mil。
利空因素：
- 公司蒙受大笔的Foreign Currency translation losses
- 美金相比15Q4下跌了9%，去年12月31日USD/MYR = 4.2935,
- 而3月31日是3.904。所以3个月下跌了39仙，相当于9.07%。
- 不过让我惊讶的是FLBHD不是使用Quarterly rate而是当个季度
- 最后一天的汇率。个人认为使用Quarterly rate是比较准确的，
- 因为一天的汇率不等同一个季度。
- 假设使用Quarterly Rate, 去年Q4是4.28, 而今年Q1是4.22，
- 相差不到2%，Foreign Currency translation losses就不会这么多。
- Lower average Selling price导致profit margin下跌。
- Double tax deduction benefit granted被废除导致Tax增加，
- 也减少了公司的盈利。
会减少例如。因此公司决定增加产量以及抵消成本增加的负面因素。
底持有的美金现金 = 23.194 mil。
其他国家大约是2 mil左右。
笔者计算到的美金资产(包括现金receivable)是34.2 mil，美金下跌了
大约9%。 所以34.2 mil x 9% = 3.078 mil。而且当时还马币对比其
他国家的货币也是走强的，所以其他国家Trade receivable预估也有
0.18 mil左右的Foreign Currency translation losses。
所以笔者初步估算的Foreign Currency translation losses大越是3.25 mil
。不要忘记这3个月公司的现金也增加了不少，所以Foreign Currency
translation losses增加到3.557 mil是有可能的。
而2014年公司美金现金以及Trade receivable大约相等于18.19 mil (cash)
+ 12.44mil = 30.63 mil。而马币在去年全年大约下跌了22.8%，
30.63 mil x 0.23 = 7.0449 mil。
笔者计算出来的答案跟去年全年的外汇盈利相差低于0.05%。不过以上
都是笔者自己的推算，如有错误，请大家多多见谅。
现在美金的汇率是4.07左右，比当初3月31日的3.904又高了17仙，这是否意
味美金假设可以走强到6月尾，Foreign currency translation losses可以
变成Foreign currency translation gains??
不过外汇始终是Extra bonus，公司的营业额以及产线优化才是刺激公司
盈利走高的主因。
因为Double tax deduction benefit在1月1号撤销，所以16Q1比去年Q1足
足多了0.53 mil。所以单单在外汇以及TAX的影响之下，盈利足足减少了接近
4 mil。这种情况可能接下来会发生在不少其他出口公司的身上。
总结：
以现金流以及股息来看，FLBHD无疑是非常出色的。假设美国在6月升息，
这可能回到导致美金走高，FLBHD也有所回弹。而且FLBHD最近几个季度
销售量以及产量有所增加，长期是有看头的。公司也积极打开日本市场，
希望可以通过日本2020的奥运分到一些甜头。
不过，现在盈利在没有进步的情况下，很大可能会遭受大量的卖压。
而这种情形也发 生在去年的5月公布的业绩，当时候FLBHD的货柜因为
美国港口罢工而进不到港口，盈利当个季度下跌19%，股价也下跌了
10%左右。不过最后Delay 的货柜被记录在Q2导致盈利大涨，股价
也是从那个时候开始走高。
缺乏耐心的投资者或许要有止损的觉悟，因为这家公司需要时间让市场
消化外汇的因素。假设你做了功课，你心里或许就会有答案了。
Harryt30
00.10a.m.
2016.05.22
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