2018年11月26日星期一

Muda3883慕达 RM2.18: 基本与技术面向好!


~阻力RM2.20  ,2.50 , 2.90
~公司于30/9/2018的库存为马币3.1亿
CASH为5358万
借债为5.88亿
NTA:RM3.29

~使用MACD指标的核心策略:

当MACD白黄线在0轴上方时,是多头的市场,对于MACD所产生的买入信号,可相对乐观操作。当白黄线在0轴下方时,是空头的屠宰场,即使指标走的好也应该保持适度的谨慎,以持币为主要策略。

点评:图中macd为藍色线与紫色线己处在0轴之上,即黄金交叉后走势,可安心持有,当再次交叉即为更强的双牛走势,反之蓝色线转下即为卖出讯号(死亡交叉).
个人浅见,如有错误请更正。



~梹城造纸厂扩建后,Muda Holdings的造纸厂每年的生产能力为50万吨,集团的瓦楞纸厂产能预计将在两台机器完成后每年增加至27万吨。
~@个人点评与估计2018年的全年净利如下:
公司营收将提高,管理层己为未来产能做了准备。
净利:6711万
EPS:22仙
PE:15倍
股价:RM3.30
Muda老板儿子对媒体放话了,2018财年净利勝过2017财年的eps 19.26仙,故我取22仙计大约的股价, 5月最高价2.95/19.26=15倍本益比.
目前积3季度EPS=17SEN,季,估计EPS=10SEN,此2018年EPS=27SEN
PE=15
价=RM4.05
~Fair value:RM3.43
个人分享,投资自负。
a)http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32661-1.html

b)http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32715-1.html

c)http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32695-1.html

d)http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32729-1.html

e)http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32768-1. html2

f)http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32724-1.html

g)http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32793-1.html













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2018年11月23日星期五

GKENT 3204 喬治肯特RM1.05投资











马资源-乔治肯特联营公司获118.6亿LRT3工程

-A
(吉隆坡5日讯)马资源(Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd)与乔治肯特(George Kent (Malaysia) Bhd)的联营公司马资源乔治肯特私人有限公司(MRCB George Kent Sdn Bhd),获得从八打灵再也万达镇(Bandar Utama)至巴生佐汉瑟迪亚(Johan Setia)的第三轻快铁计划(LRT3)工程,总值118亿6000万令吉。
马资源与乔治肯特分别向大马交易所报备,收到国家基建公司(Prasarana Malaysia Bhd)的意向书。
“合约总额包括4亿令吉的应急或临时金额,如果不使用,将减少合约总额。”
[X] CLOSE
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意向书主要条款包括:
上述工程将在2024年2月28日完成,除非按照合约延长;
马资源乔治肯特私人有限公司在意向书日期起30日内,提供相当于合约金额5%的履约保证金;
马资源和乔治肯特将向国家基建公司提供相应的公司担保;以及
马资源和乔治肯特表示,将继续就固定价格合约进行谈判,以便在2018年12月12日之前执行合约。
这两大集团估计,上述项目将可为它们的未来收益作出积极贡献。
马资源乔治肯特私人有限公司在10月17日宣布,接获政府通知将继续进行LRT3项目,但成本降低至166亿令吉,比7月份的314亿5000万令吉最初成本,降低接近一半或47%。
成本包括征地成本、施工期间的利息和其他成本。
项目执行模式将从项目交付伙伴(PDP)改为固定价格合约制度。
截至下午3点42分,马资源起3仙或3.95%,至79仙,成交量为4747万8900股,市值达34亿3000万令吉;乔治肯特则涨5仙或4.35%,至1.20令吉,共660万1600股易手,市值为6亿1988万令吉。






--(lrt3 )16.6 b/2=8.3 b 
profit margin 6%=498m for gkent。
498m/563.269m股数=rm0.88(eps),(以上为粗略计算,未扣除其他成本。)
乱世局中收股息是安穩的,11月,2019年1月与4月拿股息,中長期取得资本增值,RM1,05完全反应公司负面与利空了,收与进为良策。
--LRT3项目確定实施,未来净利显现,现累积兩个季度Q1与Q2共净利46m,Rolling 4 Quarters=92m ,eps=16sen ,建築股合理的本益比(pe)为10至15倍,股价应为RM1.60至2.40,目前价格RM1.05只是本益比6.5倍在交易,明显被低估了。
--gkent 现在RM1.05 買入,每年分三次股息,保守应该有4至5仙,周息率为3.8至4.7%
--公司从2018年6月开始股票買回至11月16曰,股价介于RM1.01至1.48 ,共累积10125.500股。坐拥净现金马币3亿,未来穩定派息,基本面强大。利空出尽,下无可跌,買入。

--转贴 
gkent is a good invest: 
market cap:591m 
net cash:301m 
stock price:RM1.05
net cash position:50.9%
Perhaps a more "investable" names on the net-net universe... Here's a screener by: 
1) KLSE stocks 
2) Market Cap above RM 100 mil 
3) Net Cash position is at 50% or more of its market cap value 

At least some of the names here are more familiar, hehe. I'm planning to study some of the names, having cash which is 50% of market can be considered first line to "value" in my opinion.
--Quoted from MRCB : 

The division also saw a contribution of RM20.7 million net profit from the group’s 50 per cent-owned LRT3 project company MRCB George Kent Sdn Bhd

Does that mean June - September 20.7M Net Profit for GKent?
gkent Q3建築 净利: 20.7m/563m股数=eps :3.6 sen
试目以待,未包括水表业务净利。
个人分享,投资自负。
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2018年11月22日星期四

浅谈慕达 MUDA 2018 第三季度业绩:

公司于30/9/2018的库存为马币3.1亿
CASH为5358万
借债为5.88亿
NTA:RM3.29

@个人点评与估计2018年的全年净利如下:
公司营收将提高,管理层己为未来产能做了准备。
净利:6711万
EPS:22仙
PE:15倍
股价:RM3.30
Muda老板儿子对媒体放话了,2018财年净利勝过2017财年的eps 19.26仙,故我取22仙计大约的股价, 5月最高价2.95/19.26=15倍本益比.
目前积3季度EPS=17SEN,季,估计EPS=10SEN,此2018年EPS=27SEN
PE=15
价=RM4.05
个人分享,投资负.
http://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=1101627
1.绩效考核:
穆达集团继续在本报告所述期间取得值得称道的成果。收入
截至2018年9月30日的财政期间收入比对应高出11.1%
2017年的增长主要是由于工业用纸的销售价格上涨所致
纸包装产品。工业用纸的较高销售价格与其相关
国际销售价格,而纸包装产品的销售价格较高
通过谈判达成。
在毛利率方面,废纸成本较低,生产成本控制较好,
再加上工业用纸和纸制包装产品的销售价格有所贡献
与2017年同期相比,本集团的毛利率有所改善
与前一个月相比,前九个月的税前利润更高
2017年减少137%。
制造部门:
截至2018年9月30日止财务期间的制造部门的外部收入
2017年同期超过11.8%,主要原因是好转
销售工业用纸和纸包装产品的价格。这些影响
有利的销售价格加上纸包装产品的销量较高
弥补了本报告期内工业用纸销量下降的影响。
截至2018年9月30日止的财务期间制造部门的利润率
与2017年同期相比,已经提高了近两倍,主要原因是效果更好
工业用纸和纸包装产品的销售价格加上原料的减少
材料成本和生产成本的提高。改善的全部影响甚至更大
通过将保险公司的一次性净补偿金排除在310万令吉和15.5令吉之间
截至2018年9月30日及2017年9月30日止财政期间分别为百万元,
这构成了制造部门的部门利润的一部分。
交易部:
截至2018年9月30日止财政期间的收入增加3.2%及该分部
与2017年同期相比,保证金显着改善267%
保证金的改善是由于交易废纸的单位成本减少。
2.与前一季度的比较
本集团本季度的外部收入较上一季度增长7.7%
25美分硬币。这主要是由于工业用纸和纸包装的销量增加
产品。
与上一季度相比,本季度较高的分部利润主要是
归因于制造部门与次要部分的销售价格改善
交易部门的利润率改善。

Performance Review
The Muda Group continues to deliver commendable results for the period under review. Revenue
for the financial period ended 30 September 2018 revenue is 11.1% higher than the corresponding
period in 2017. The increase is mainly attributable to higher selling price of industrial paper and
paper packaging products. The higher selling price for industrial paper is in tandem with its
international selling prices whereas the higher selling prices of paper packaging products are
achieved through negotiated basis.
In terms of gross profit margin, the lower cost of waste paper and better production cost control,
coupled with better selling price of industrial paper and paper packaging products contributed to
improvement in gross margin of the Group compared to the corresponding period in 2017. This has
resulted in higher profit before tax for the first nine months compared to corresponding period in
2017 by 137%.
Manufacturing Division
External revenue for the financial period ended 30 September 2018 in the Manufacturing Division
has exceeded the corresponding period in 2017 by 11.8% which is mainly attributable to better
selling prices of both industrial paper and paper packaging products. The impact from these
favourable selling prices coupled the higher sales volume of the paper packaging products
compensated for the drop in sales volume of industrial paper for the period under review.
Profit margin for the financial period ended 30 September 2018 in the Manufacturing Division
compared to corresponding period in 2017 has improved by almost two fold mainly due to better
selling prices of industrial paper and paper packaging products coupled with reduction in raw
material cost and improved production cost. The full impact of the improvement is even more
apparent by excluding the one-off net compensation from the insurer of RM3.1 million and RM15.5
million for the financial period ended 30 September 2018 and 30 September 2017 respectively,
which formed part of the segment profit for the Manufacturing Division.
Trading Division
Revenue for the financial period ended 30 September 2018 increased by 3.2% and the segment
margin has improved significantly by 267% compared to the corresponding period in 2017. The
improvement in margin is due to the reduction in unit cost of trading waste paper.
2. Comparison with Preceding Quarter
The Group external revenue for current quarter has improved by 7.7% compared to the preceding
quarter. This is mainly due to higher sales volume for industrial paper and paper packaging
products.
Compared to the preceding quarter, the higher segment profit for current quarter is mainly
attributable to improvement in the selling prices in the Manufacturing Division with minor segment
margin improvement in the Trading Division.





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2018年11月17日星期六

MUDA 3883 慕达是低估值股?


 --muda RM1.84確定反攻,阻力rm1.95 ,2.20 ,2.50 ,2.90
止损rm1.70

--因macd短藍线近在0軸处,之后紫线也会跟上就是双牛了,因技术面后面要有好的基本面配合,老板说了2018年净利超过2017年。
再加上publicinvest,aminvest 己进入,並设下目标价RM2.19 和RM2.18,未来前景好。
--当技术与基本面转强时,守着与持有就是王道了,享受净利奔跑吧!
--Muda RM1.85/share, 市值RM564M, p/e 8.8, NTA RM3.23/share, ROE 6.46%
--Lim表示,Muda Holdings在FY19的主要重点将是尽可能降低成本。因此,本年度没有计划进行大规模扩张或资本支出(资本支出),尽管该集团可能会为自动化分配高达500万令吉的小额投资。
对于FY18,Muda Holdings已拨出1.04亿令吉的资本支出,主要用于扩大产能和提高效率。 “我们的造纸厂和瓦楞纸箱厂的生产能力的扩大是为了迎合未来销售的预期增长,”林说。 在总计1.04亿令吉中,约10%涉及在马六甲Air Keroh建造新工厂,主要用于在马六甲和柔佛州巴鲁安装新瓦楞机以及造纸厂的小型产能扩建。在槟城。 在槟城最近完成造纸厂扩建后,Muda Holdings的造纸厂每年的生产能力为50万吨,而该集团的瓦楞纸厂产能预计将在两台机器完成后每年增加至270,000吨。林说,马六甲和柔佛巴鲁将把马来西亚纸包装行业的市场份额从13%提高到28%。
@个人点评与估计2018年的全年净利如下:
公司营收将提高,管理层己为未来产能做了准备。
净利:6711万
EPS:22仙
PE:15倍
股价:RM3.30
Muda老板儿子对媒体放话了,2018财年净利勝过2017财年的eps 19.26仙,故我取22仙计大约的股价, 5月最高价2.95/19.26=15倍本益比
http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32389-1.html

http://www.chinapaper.net/mobile/21-0-32530-1.html
个人看法,投资自负。








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2018年11月7日星期三

Presbhd 5204 畢达良RM0.71 投资。

1)Prestariang - Ceasing Coverage

 
Prestariang’s share price has been in the limelight recently as it tumbled more than 51% over the last 1 month due to various uncertainties surrounding the companies amid heavy selling pressure from institutional investors, namely, Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (KWAP) and AIA. While having recovered admirably in recent days, we are nevertheless ceasing coverage on the stock given the poorer earnings outlook due to an anticipated ballooning in its finance costs, continuous bleed in its education segment and it bread-and butter income stream (software) under threat. Due to internal resource allocation, we are ceasing research coverage of Prestariang. Our last call on the stock is Neutral with a TP of RM1.19.
  • Its core contract under spotlight. Its RM3.5bn National Immigration Control System (SKIN) concession project with the Home Ministry, which is under a public-private partnership (PPP), has become a subject of speculation as it is reportedly under review by the government, with some adjustments to the scope of work leaving it not likely to remain in the current format.
  • Progress of the SKIN project. The 15-year SKIN concession project, which officially started on 25 April this year, is expected to take three years in the construction phase. It will replace the current immigration system called MyIMMS, and is expected to provide annual recurring income of RM295m from year 4 to year 15 during the maintenance and operational period. It is currently under the business process reengineering stage and is about 10% completed to-date. To fund the construction, Prestariang has recently secured RM978m borrowings from Bank Pembangunan.
  • Trading at 25%-29% discount to the SKIN project value. Based on our forecasts, the SKIN project is worth RM1.08/share for the 70% equity stake under Prestariang. Based on the current share price of RM0.50, the market is reflecting at least 25%-29% cut in the RM3.5bn project value.
  • Moving into bigger campus. The education arm, under UniMy, has moved into a bigger campus with a 240,000 sq ft at the same rental of RM250k/mth. It currently has about 550 students and targets at least 1,000 students to break even at EBITDA level. To run the campus at a more efficient level, the company has recently appointed a new CEO and Vice Chancellor to undertake the UniMy management. We also understand that the big jump in 1HFY18 administrative expense, up 64.7% YoY, was mainly due to the aggressive marketing activities under the campus recruitment drive.
  • Ceasing coverage.Investors should no longer depend on any of our previous financial forecasts for Prestariang in making investment decisions, nor infer any adverse opinion as a result of our decision to cease coverage.
Source: PublicInvest Research- 7 Nov 2018

2)All eyes on Prestariang and its SKIN project

TheEdge Mon, Nov 05, 2018 - 2 days ago

INVESTORS in e-government service provider Prestariang Bhd have been on tenterhooks since the change in government, largely due to uncertainty over the status of one of its key projects.
This was reflected in the stock crumbling to 44 sen last Monday, its lowest level so far this year and a 73% decline from its close of RM1.64 on the day before the 14th general election on May 9.
According to a filing with Bursa Malaysia on the same day, Pres­tariang founder and group CEO Dr Abu Hasan Ismail, who is also the company’s largest shareholder, saw forced selling of 15.1 million of his shares — representing a 3.13% stake held via his privately owned companies — to rectify a personal margin account position. Abu Hasan now holds a 24.3% stake in the company.
On Wednesday, however, Pres­tariang reversed its downward trend to hit an intraday high of 54.5 sen, gaining 24% in just two days.
So, what changed investor perception of the stock?
Although the company has yet to make any announcement on any of its projects, talk in the market has centred on the jewel in its crown — the RM3.5 billion Sistem Kawalan Imigresen Nasional (SKIN) project, which is understood to be one of the public-private partnership projects under review by the Ministry of Finance (MoF).
CIMB Research says in an Oct 23 report that based on its analysis of the company, there is a good chance the new government will soon approve the SKIN project.
“The Immigration Department’s MyIMMs IT infrastructure network, built in the 1990s, is outdated and there is an urgent need to replace it with a new IT infrastructure with the latest technology,” says the research house. “SKIN is a national security project.”
Assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6%, CIMB estimates SKIN’s value to be around RM750 million and since Prestariang owns 70% of it, the concession is worth RM525 million or RM1.08 per share to the company.
The remaining 30% of the SKIN project is reportedly owned by Muhammad Nagib Gopal Abdullah, Raja Azmi Adam Nadarajan and Faisalludin Mohamat Yusuff via their 30% stake in project owner Prestariang SKIN Sdn Bhd, whose CEO is Raja Azmi.
CIMB Research points out in its report that at 44 sen per share, the group’s business is being valued by investors at 13 times its FY2018 earnings, assuming zero value for the SKIN project.
PublicInvest Research has a similar valuation of the project. In a Sept 5 note, it says Prestariang’s stake in SKIN is worth RM521.3 million or RM1.08 per share, assuming a WACC of 7.48% and internal rate of return of 17%.
Given these assumptions, Pres­tariang’s closing price of 51 sen last Thursday implies a 53% discount to the value of the SKIN project.
“So far, there has been no confirmation of the status of SKIN from MoF. However, looking at the recent spike in its share price, it would seem that the market believes the project will go on but most likely at a lower price,” a market observer tells The Edge.
To recap briefly, SKIN is a new border control system that facilitates the movement of people in and out of Malaysia, and will replace the current system. On July 18 last year, Prestariang SKIN entered into a concession agreement with the Ministry of Home Affairs on the implementation of SKIN by way of a public-private partnership.
The project is a 15-year concession and will consist of three years of build and deployment phase and 12 years of maintenance and technical operation phase. Payment to Prestariang was to only commence upon the full commissioning of the system after three years with an average annual payment of RM294.7 million from year four to year 15 during the maintenance and technical operation phase.
Apart from SKIN, Prestariang’s other dealings with the government include its contract to supply Microsoft software licences, products and services. In January this year, its subsidiary, Prestariang Systems Sdn Bhd, received an extension of its contract to supply the licences to MoF under the Master Licensing Agreement 3.0.The extension is for three years, from Feb 1 this year to Jan 31, 2021, at an estimated value of RM222.6 million.
The group also received from the Ministry of Education an extension of its contract to supply Microsoft licences to public higher education institutions in the country for a year, from July 3 this year to July 2, 2019, at a total value of RM11.63 million.
In the first half of its financial year ended June 30 (1HFY2018), Prestariang reported a year-on-year decline of 22% in net profit to RM7.04 million due to higher tax expenses and provision for doubtful debts during the period. Revenue, however, rose almost 30% to RM128.68 million due to a higher contribution from the construction work for the SKIN project.
Besides Abu Hasan, Prestariang’s other substantial shareholders are Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) (KWAP) with an 8.6% stake, and Brahmal Vasudevan — who is the founder and CEO of private equity firm Creador — with a 6.2% stake.
Given the government’s announcement last Friday that it will accept MMC-Gamuda’s new, albeit lower, offer for the underground works of the MRT2 project, investors will be waiting to see whether the same fate befalls Prestariang.

3)

获联昌国际唱好 刺激Prestariang价量齐升



(吉隆坡24日讯)联昌国际投资银行研究表示,新政府可能会批准国家移民监控系统(SKIN)项目,提振Prestariang Bhd今早交投活络,股价上升9.89%。
截至早上9点31分,该股涨4.5仙,至50仙,约3701万股成交。稍早前,该股一度上探至52仙高位。
联昌国际投资银行研究维持给予Prestariang的“增持”评级,但把目标价从2.05令吉,下修至1.89令吉,并指该股价今年低于大市,主要是担心新政府可能不批准SKIN项目所致。
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“由于该股价比我们的综合估值法(SOP)折价高达76%,因此,可趁机累积股票。维持‘增持’评级。”
分析员表示,假设加权平均资本成本(WACC)为6%,估计SKIN价值约7亿5000万令吉,基于Prestariang持有SKIN项目的70%股权,这意味着其特许经营权总值5亿2500万令吉或每股1.08令吉。
4)
转贴:目标价:1.89令吉
最新进展:
因投资者担忧新政府或不批准国家移民控制系统(SKIN)工程,必达量(PRESBHD,5204 ,主板科技股)今年内股价大跌了71%,表现低于富时小型股指数21.8%的跌幅。
过去数月,政府全面检讨与私人企业合作(PPP)合约,且财政部长林冠英表示,不打算取消任何相关项目。
而前任政府已对SKIN计划进行紧密审核,必达量也耗时4年才获得该项目的批准。
行家建议:
我们相信,基于SKIN是国家安全相关项目,所以还是很大机会,政府会批准。
目前该公司的股价,等于目标价高达76%的折价,所以相信是累积股票的好时机,维持“增持”评级。
不过,调整了SKIN的估算后,目标价从2.05令吉下调至1.89令吉。
另外,该股评级上调的催化剂包括SKIN项目不展延,及软件销售提升。

5)

About Us

Prestariang is a Technology and Talent pioneer that has evolved from being Malaysia’s largest ICT software and training service provider to a leading Technology and Talent Platform innovator.

Through its Transformation Plan, Prestariang's Technology Platform has successfully taken off with the award of Sistem Kawalan Imigresen Nasional (SKIN) by the Malaysian Government. Whilst, EduCloud, its Talent Platform, supports Entrepreneurship, Education and e-Commerce in the education sector was launched in conjunction with JobMatching PTPTN at a ceremony to commemorate the 20th Anniversary of Perbadanan Tabung Pendidikan Tinggi Nasional (PTPTN).

Today, Prestariang in collaboration with global partners, which include Imprimerie Nationale, Microsoft, Autodesk, IBM, Oracle, KPMG, University of Melbourne and many others, drives innovation in the Digital Economy.

Prestariang is also the largest Microsoft Licensing Solutions Partner in Malaysia.

Through its Technology and Talent Platforms, Prestariang will deliver its innovation through six (6) core deliveries namely, Analytics and Business Intelligence, Cyber and Information Security, Cloud Services, Change Management, Digital Ecosystem and SKIN-in-a-Box.

Prestariang Group remains committed to drive the technology industry in Malaysia towards and beyond the new digital economy era.

Business Ecosystem
AT A GLANCE
  • Founded in 2003
  • Headquartered in Cyberjaya, Selangor, Malaysia
  • Market capitalisation of over RM1.0 billion (~USD245 million)
  • Listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on 27 July 2011
    (Stock name: PRESBHD | Stock Code: 5204 | Bloomberg - PRES:MK)
  • Minimum of 50% profit payout dividend policy (i.e. quarterly basis) and a syariah-compliant stock

Our SERVICES
  • Largest ICT training and certifications provider in Malaysia
  • The exclusive distributor for Microsoft (Government agencies) and Adobe & IBM SPSS (Education) license software in Malaysia
  • 'Sistem Kawalan Imigresen Nasional' (SKIN) – A 15 years concession project to implement and manage the immigration and national border control transformation program for the government of Malaysia
  • Owns and operates University of Computer Science & Engineering (UNIMY), the first ICT-focused digital technology university in Malaysia
  • Accredited Prestariang Skill Training Institute (PSTI), the first in Pengerang, Johor for TVET Program

Our PARTNERS
  • Key partner of international companies including Thales, Alibaba Cloud, Microsoft, Autodesk, IBM, Oracle, Salesforce, KPMG, University of Melbourne and many others.






https://www.prestariang.com.my/

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptg/5204.jsp

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5204


目标价:RM1.00
个人分享,股市变化莫测,投资自负。 
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